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Colts trade out of first round


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3 minutes ago, ColtsLegacy said:

 

Common sense. A draft pick now is more valuable than a future pick.

 

Because you dont know the value of it yet, but the redskins are not a playoff team

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THIS is one of the most outdated views on the draft. There is nothing value-wise that should make a future pick worth less than a current year's pick. If I were a GM I'd abuse old time GMs who think f

Umm, I wonder if Ballard knew that?

Nonsense.    

10 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

That will be a high second round pick. Redskins are not doing much next year. It will be around 35-40th overall I bet next year.

 

Agreed, given their QB situation they are unlikely to win a ton of games.  They start the season with Keenum and after losing a bunch try and break in Haskins.

 

 

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I'll also add that this year was a tough year for teams wanting to trade back.

 

There was not a lot of people looking to move up.

 

They were not paying big prices.

 

A second and a future 3rd to move up ten spots and into the top ten?

 

Two fourth rounders to move up 9 spots to 21?

 

I actually think Ballard got great value to get a prime future 2nd rounder for moving down 20 spots when his pick was at 26 and not some premium top-10 pick

 

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

THIS is one of the most outdated views on the draft. There is nothing value-wise that should make a future pick worth less than a current year's pick. If I were a GM I'd abuse old time GMs who think future picks are worth less than current year picks. I'd always pick future 2nd over current year 3d. 

 

It is only worth less for GMs who have no job-security, because they might be getting good value for the next guy. We don't have that problem. 

 

This trade was a great value by any chart you can find out there. 

 

I LOVE it... if we didn't love Sweat or Tillery that is... 

Nailed it on the head my friend!

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Just now, New Zealands #1 Colts Fan said:

all these *s think we only got next years 2nd

 

No one thinks that. They think we moved back 20 spots and got Skins 2nd next year.

 

Do you think people think that we traded our 1st this year straight up for skins 2nd next year? Haha

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4 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

Except for the fact that a future pick could be like 20 spots higher than the ones they have this year? Lol

Or it could be 20 spots lower?

 

Doesn't matter... you make probability and EV assessment. Even if you assume somehow the Redskins win the Superbowl and we get 64th pick the value is still good. 

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9 minutes ago, Wyldhorsefan said:

Why why why. Fist they don't try to improve the team  by signing anyboday now we trade out? Why why why. I wanna win now not 10 years from now!

Didn't sign anyone you say?

 

Vinatieri 

Glowinski

Funchess

 

Desir 

Geathers

Houston

Hunt

Kindred

 

Which means that every starting position is filled from last years squad AND Funchess is better than Clark and Houston is better (currently) than either Lewis or Turay.

 

I would say that the youngest roster (minus Vinatieri) in the NFL is greatly improved by being a year older, continuity and adding better starters at the two spots that desperately needed them.

 

Relax....

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The issue I have with the trade is:

I loved Tillery there.

 

You never know what the Skins will be next year.  Predicting is for stock analysts and bookies.

 

Falling out of the first gives us no help for this coming year, especially when we didn't really sign much FA wise.  THIS IS NOT A SB WINNING TEAM.

 

Tillery was there!!!!

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1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

If that happens we can always trade and move up.

 

I guess? I dont know what your getting at.

 

My point is that future picks are volatile because of how fast things change in the NFL. I mean it's not like the Redskins were some dumpster fire last year they picked in the middle of the first and just got the best QB in the draft. They can just as easily go 11-5 as they could 5-11.

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4 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Because you dont know the value of it yet, but the redskins are not a playoff team

 

But I do have the value that pick 46 is way lower than pick 26. And that player, at 26 or 46, will contribute to the Colts this year.

 

This year we have done nothing but lose value. If we picked up another middle pick this year I'd be able to swallow this a little easier.

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1 minute ago, threeflight said:

The issue I have with the trade is:

I loved Tillery there.

 

You never know what the Skins will be next year.  Predicting is for stock analysts and bookies.

 

Falling out of the first gives us no help for this coming year, especially when we didn't really sign much FA wise.  THIS IS NOT A SB WINNING TEAM.

 

Tillery was there!!!!

Ballard knew that and still traded so he obviously didnt care what you thought you knew about tillery

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Just now, ColtsLegacy said:

 

But I do have the value that pick 46 is way lower than pick 26. And that player at 26 or 46 will contribute to the Colts this year.

 

This year we have done nothing but lose value. If we picked up a 4th or something this year I'd be able to swallow this a little easier.

 

I honestly think if the colts didnt pick at 34, then we might have gotten more value, but we're still talking about a possible top 5-10 pick in the second round next year

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The chart above grades Indy's pick 26 as 700

Washington's 46 pick grades as 440 + ? (next years 2nd)

 

So if you do the math, after adding in the Redskin's 2020 pick, (barring Washington winning the super bowl) we stand to get the better of the deal...

numerically... of course

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1 minute ago, threeflight said:

The issue I have with the trade is:

I loved Tillery there.

 

You never know what the Skins will be next year.  Predicting is for stock analysts and bookies.

 

Falling out of the first gives us no help for this coming year, especially when we didn't really sign much FA wise.  THIS IS NOT A SB WINNING TEAM.

 

Tillery was there!!!!

 

And tillery makes a superbowl winning team? You predicting Tillery is going to amount to anything more than jack squat is the same as predicting what the skins will do. The only difference is that it gives us another chance to land a player. And based on Ballards success rate, I feel pretty good we are going to land 3 good players tomorrow and another 3 in the first two rounds next year. That's what is called "stacking drafts" and it happens to be Ballard's philosophy if you haven't been paying attention. 

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2 minutes ago, threeflight said:

The issue I have with the trade is:

I loved Tillery there.

 

You never know what the Skins will be next year.  Predicting is for stock analysts and bookies.

 

Falling out of the first gives us no help for this coming year, especially when we didn't really sign much FA wise.  THIS IS NOT A SB WINNING TEAM.

 

Tillery was there!!!!

 

Follow me here.

 

I will type slowly for you.

 

They did not like Tillery as much as you.  And Ballard hold's more sway than you.

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Ballard said that from pick 11 to pick 60 or so it's based on choice and position by team. I'm going to trust Ballard on this one. We have three picks in the second round this year and to next year. There's no way Ballard got duped on this one. He showed us last year his eye for talent so we'll talk about this after tomorrow night when the Colts have four new players.

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I think Sweat was off his board due to health concerns and Tillery was lower than we think. Remember Ballard was quite specific when he said it was EDGE rusher he wanted to get better at. He likes what he has at 3tech with Autry, Lewis and Ward.

 

I think Ferrell was in that cluster of 8.

 

Very hard to predict tomorrows picks. I think we will see a surprise DE been taken by us. OT, SS and WR possibly also.

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http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/bestavailable

 

Look at this, right now there are two OTs, three CBS, and a WR there in the top 10.  Even if five of those guys go in the next five picks the Colts will still have a guy who fits a need there at 34.  When you look beyond that there is a safety a couple CBS, an end, and a bunch of WRs that they will probably be able to get with the pick they got from the Redskins.  So odds are Ballard is still going to get the same value he would have gotten and he’s added another second rounder for next year.  That’s a no brainer for any GM in Ballard’s shoes.

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3 minutes ago, stitches said:

Or it could be 20 spots lower?

 

Doesn't matter... you make probability evaluation. Even if you assume somehow the Redskins win the Superbowl and we get 64th pick the value is still good. 

 

Yeah it could be 20 spots lower. The fact that you have no idea what pick it is is why its devalued vs current picks. 

 

And no if the Redskins won the Super Bowl it wouldn't be good value lol. You'd move back 20 spots and lose out on a 5th year option for what is essentially a 3rd rounder. 

 

 

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I don't get the anger regarding the trade out. The guys that people on this board wanted  at 26 had red flags.  We will probably get 3 starting players with our 3   2nd rounders.  Our D needs talent at DT, strong safety and maybe another corner

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2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I honestly think if the colts didnt pick at 34, then we might have gotten more value, but we're still talking about a possible top 5-10 pick in the second round next year

 

Their picking at 34 had nothing to do with the value they got for the trade they made.  They are not connected.  Do you think Ballard wanted more out of it then backed off because he had # 34?

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2 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

I think Sweat was off his board due to health concerns and Tillery was lower than we think. Remember Ballard was quite specific when he said it was EDGE rusher he wanted to get better at. He likes what he has at 3tech with Autry, Lewis and Ward.

 

I think Ferrell was in that cluster of 8.

 

Very hard to predict tomorrows picks. I think we will see a surprise DE been taken by us. OT, SS and WR possibly also.

Chase winovich.

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Just now, jameszeigler834 said:

Considering what was there at the 26th pick that trade was dumb.

 

It's not difficult to see why a team would pass on the guys available at 26. All have question marks.

 

If the Colts don't really love any of them...which obviously they didn't...there is nothing wrong with the trade. Especially considering the Colts also have the 34th pick coming up.

 

Time will tell who is right but calling the move "dumb" is a heck of a stretch. 

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1 minute ago, Dustin said:

 

Yeah it could be 20 spots lower. The fact that you have no idea what pick it is is why its devalued vs current picks. 

 

And no if the Redskins won the Super Bowl it wouldn't be good value lol. You'd move back 20 spots and lose out on a 5th year option for what is essentially a 3rd rounder. 

 

 

This is nonesese. Yes, it could be 64.... or it could be 33!!! This is not how you make evaluations. You have some probability distribution and you get an expected value out of it. Especially with the Redskins probably starting a rookie QB, this trade is more likely to give us a pick closer to 33 than to 64. 

 

Also, find me a single trade chart that gives us worse value than what the Redskins got. You won't find one. Even the most outdated ones that overvalue higher picks and undervalue number of picks return worse value. Even if you take the worst chart for my argument(Jimmy Johnson's chart) AND assume worst case scenario(we get 64), we still come ahead 10 points, which is equivalent of a 6th round pick... This is WORST case scenario on the WORST chart for my argument. 

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12 minutes ago, threeflight said:

The issue I have with the trade is:

I loved Tillery there.

 

You never know what the Skins will be next year.  Predicting is for stock analysts and bookies.

 

Falling out of the first gives us no help for this coming year, especially when we didn't really sign much FA wise.  THIS IS NOT A SB WINNING TEAM.

 

Tillery was there!!!!

Review Tillerys draft profile. There character concern s.  Ballard emphasized character.

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