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TomDiggs

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  1. some interesting numbers: - Colts are tied for 20th in pass-rush win rate - AQM is definitely as some mentioned one of the most double-teamed edge players. but that kills his win rate and he has not overcome it. no surprise since he isnt known as an elite pass rusher - AQM is still a top-10 run-stop win rate AQM has done his part. We just need to have guys that win their matchups more. Hopefully Paye helps that. And Dayo whenever we get a look at him. Just some fun little tidbits.
  2. I watched the game and swore to high heaven. i was texting in a group chat w friends (no colts fans) that the entire time were telling me the colts were going to win and to calm down when i called a loss exactly how it happened the moment Hollywood caught the TD....my point of all this is to show that i can be a glass half empty guy and a big critic of the colts and their issues....so all that said: 1) The Colts were never going to be a SuperBowl contender this year. If our fans thought they were they were wearing rose colored glasses from the start 2) This was a year to evaluate Wentz and see if he is worth that future 1.....I don't care what anyone says, Wentz is worth it. He has 100% not been the problem this year. You can win with him. He holds the ball too long at times. But you can win with him. He is still a top-20 caliber QB and his contract is actually not terrible compared to the on-going rise in QB salaries. 3) The brutal part of our schedule (first 5 games) was going to be at best a 3-2 start and most folks predicted 2-3. That would have been an OK start w that murder's row to begin the year. The Colts fell one game short of a 2-3 start. Close. Just not there. 4) Aside from the Seahawks game to start the year, the Colts have been in every game and in most cases leading late in the second half. They led in the 4th against the Rams. Obviously led in the Miami win (despite almost giving it away) and led most of this game. They can hang w good teams. They just cannot close them out. 5) The Colts have done this with: a less than 100% Fisher, Q hurt, Kelly dinged, Braden Smith out since Week 1, No TY Hilton, Kwity Paye hurt, Leonard hobbled, Rhodes hurt, Ya Sin hurt, Willis hurt. This team has yet to play a game even remotely close to healthy. And they have been in these games late. The reality is that the Colts are not going to be a playoff team. And they likely will lose that 1 to the Eagles. But they are very much better than their record. And they will show it as they get healthy. It won't be enough. But the sky isn't falling even though it feels like it is. This loss hurts. A lot. They played the perfect game for basically 42 mins. Then the Hollywood TD happened and the secondary was decimated and it all fell apart. And yet still if they hit one FG out of the blocked one and the missed one, they win. This team does not have the margin for error that other teams do. But damn. They are not a bottom 5 team like their record indicates. This season will get better. It just will not be as good as fans who thought we were going to build on last year thought it would. It's a temporary step back before a leap forward in the future.
  3. I’ll be there at 6 since I’m first on the clock so I can kick us off whenever you say we are good.
  4. nfl.com set the order wrong. i dont think it would let chad correct it. so everyone is going to autodraft. letting it run. then i think chads gonna clear it and we meet back at 6pm ET to do the actual draft. Everyone am i tracking that right?
  5. hopefully it gets fixed in the next 7 mins . not sure what happens otherwise once the draft starts
  6. I am there and ready to go and kick us off at pick 1 if the order gets fixed as it should :-D
  7. Braden numbers finally in. Interesting stuff. he did get a $15M signing bonus. So the colts did finally use that. Cap numbers (2021-2025): $6.3 $11.6 $19.0 $16.7 $19.8 most of the money in the first three years. Only money due in 2024-2025 is the $3M a year in prorated signing bonus if he were not still on the roster. https://overthecap.com/player/braden-smith/6922/
  8. Not disagreeing conceptually with the idea. But it is very rare that the jobs most people have include signed contracts that tell you what you are going to make each year, etc. Most of us have jobs that if we are over-performing we can simply give two weeks notice and walk away to someone else that is willing to pay us more and give us the going rate for our services. So that's why i never really try to compare these sports jobs to regular jobs. Apples and oranges. I will gladly compare sports jobs to each other. And the NFL is unlike MLB and the NBA in a way that is clearly slanted towards the teams and not the players. That's why I rarely fault a player when they try to use whatever the little leverage is that they may have. It is also why the moment the guaranteed $ of a contract is all paid out to the player, you run the risk of the player being unhappy and this stuff happening. If the player is still performing at a high level, teams can often circumvent their angst by simply providing more guarantees in the construct of their existing deals. Not even upping their annual salary but just giving them more certainty for the future. In Howard's case it sounds like they even tried to take that approach and got no response. So if that is true i can totally see why he's requesting to move on.
  9. This is why what Ballard says rings true......you need to have the locker room in the right place before you can bring in outside guys and pay them. And it has to be the right guy. If you are going to bring in a CB and pay him $14M annually with basically $54M that you are going to have to pay him over the next 3 years (What Miami did with Byron Jones), then you have to see how your All-Pro current CB who is making $12M a year and who basically has no money guaranteed and is essentially year-to-year after this season could get upset. Especially when he outplayed that contract figure the previous year. I am all for a guy living up to his contract and the "he signed it" stuff. But the NFL is a different league than MLB or the NBA. The moment these guys don't justify their contract that both they and the team signed, the team walks away and pays them nothing. Even the dead cap hits are usually tied to the signing bonus or guarantees that have often already been paid out. So the player cuts cut with no new money going into his pocket. With how short their careers are, these guys need to basically re-negotiate every time they play well enough to out-perform their contract because the moment they under-perform it they are gone and never see the $ they thought they were getting when signed. End of the day you have Howard ticked off after the Jones signing and you have Chandler Jones ticked off after the JJ Watt signing. That is exactly why Ballard is spot on with saying they are picking and choosing their investments and much prefer to pay guys from within who earned it.
  10. All true I am more-so standing up for DL when anyone comes at him as not being good in coverage because really that is not what the narrative seems to be. And he was always going to lumped in with Warner and after they re-set the market Roquon Smith and then Devin White will likely surpass them on their next contracts. So I am all for it. I would also say to your points that even despite everything you said about DL vs FW, I believe DL actually has a better tackling percentage and lower missed tackle percentage too which is even more impressive. Either way, it will be fun to see how he and the defense play this year.
  11. Without getting overly political here, this is the exact two sides of the coin argument that is prevalent everywhere in our society today. Those that do not want a vaccine will say that "look he had it and he still got sick. why am i going to take it if i still can get sick afterwards. what is the point?" And those that do want the vaccine will say "look if i did not get the vaccine it could have been so much worse. look at the good getting the vaccine did for me." And it is becoming more and more obvious that the divide in the country between the camps and the two mindsets is becoming more and more dug in where people's minds are not being swayed much one way or another. The measures the NFL put in do about as much as they possibly can to encourage/force folks to get the vaccine. If people still wish to not do so, then the reality is that they somewhat know the risks both medically and NFL-wise and are making a conscious decision to accept the risks. Hope Frank gets healthy. I have a good friend that is a breakthrough case now too. Got vaccinated and has COVID and has super mild symptoms. He believes it is due to being vaccinated and if that is true for him then I am super glad he made the choice that he made.
  12. This is all 100% true but is also why you can't fault DL compared to Warner They have 100% different responsibilities. I'd be very curious to compare how often DL is in man vs zone compared to FW I do know two years ago the Colts were in the bottom10 in the NFL in frequency of man to man defense. If DL is constantly in zone and Warner is having more man to man duties then comparing their numbers becomes even more difficult. Also agreed on your grading play by play concept and if we look at that a place like PFF (which i recognize has their goods and bads) pretty much says how good DL is. Heading into last year they had DL ranked 3rd and FW 11th in the league. After last year they have FW ranked 2nd and DL 6th. The biggest nugget regarding their play by play ranking of DL that I take away is: "In three NFL seasons, Darius Leonard doesn’t have a bad PFF grade in any facet of play in any single season, which is a remarkable level of consistency at a position that is routinely exploited by modern offenses." And before last year (when DL had his worst year in coverage and FW had his best), PFF said after years 1 and 2 that "Leonard has posted grades of 75.0 or higher as a run defender, pass-rusher and coverage defender since 2018 — joining Wagner and the next guy on this list (Demario Davis) as the only two linebackers to do so." All I am getting at here is that advanced stats and basic stats all seem to say the similar thing: Leonard is above average in every facet of the game and as a result is seen as one of the top LBs around and that includes his coverage in the scheme that he is asked to play. That is kind of all I/we can ask for and of him.
  13. Thanks boss. And yes the three of us you mentioned I believe are heading to the other Colts elite league this season and we are trying to find out the handle of whoever was the Joe's league champ last year since I did not know it. Good luck and I hope the Joe's league fills. It is a fun league and fun group of guys.
  14. I would love to have access to numbers across the NFL to compare and see where Leonard fits amongst all off-ball LBs to see if he is truly average, above average or way above average and by how much. But in the absence of that I will just compare him only to Warner since Warner is currently one of the pillars of being seen as a good coverage LB So to give an idea on some numbers and how they compare in the first 3 years on average: DL- 78.1% completion percentage FW- 62.9% completion percentage DL- 8.90 yards per completion FW- 9.08 yards per completion DL- 5.75 average yards after catch FW- 5.98 average yards after catch DL- 6.70 yards per pass attempt targeting him FW- 5.60 yards per pass attempt targeting him DL- 6 TDs allowed FW- 7 TDs allowed My biggest takeaways from all of this is that Warner is indeed doing a considerably better job at limiting catches when he is targeted. To the tune of 15% less passes being completed against him. However, DL does a better job limiting the YAC and allows less yards per completion as well. At the end of the day I am not entirely sure how DL's numbers compare to all off-ball LBs, but they compare favorably to Warner everywhere except the completion percentage. It is a big difference and I am not throwing that away. But if DL makes any marked improvement there then he's knocking on the door of being right up there as a coverage LB all while being a better tackler (in volume and missed tackle percentage) having more tackles for a loss, having more forced fumbles, having significantly more takeaways (11 to 6), having way more sacks (15 to 4), having more QB hits (26 to 15), and even having slightly more passes defensed (22 to 21). DL deserves at least what FW is getting and it is easy to see why most think he deserves more. He has earned it up until this point. The danger is obviously once he's paid those huge numbers does he continue to produce in a manner that is worth the inflated contract? My guess is people won't think he earns it once he gets the big money but that is because we are spoiled with how good he has been for how cheap his contract has been until this point. I am happy to pay him and Q the big money and let the rest sort itself out. Especially with us not having big $ invested in expensive spots like WR, CB and Edge now and in the near future.
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