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Everything posted by TomDiggs

  1. some interesting numbers: - Colts are tied for 20th in pass-rush win rate - AQM is definitely as some mentioned one of the most double-teamed edge players. but that kills his win rate and he has not overcome it. no surprise since he isnt known as an elite pass rusher - AQM is still a top-10 run-stop win rate AQM has done his part. We just need to have guys that win their matchups more. Hopefully Paye helps that. And Dayo whenever we get a look at him. Just some fun little tidbits.
  2. I watched the game and swore to high heaven. i was texting in a group chat w friends (no colts fans) that the entire time were telling me the colts were going to win and to calm down when i called a loss exactly how it happened the moment Hollywood caught the TD....my point of all this is to show that i can be a glass half empty guy and a big critic of the colts and their issues....so all that said: 1) The Colts were never going to be a SuperBowl contender this year. If our fans thought they were they were wearing rose colored glasses from the start 2) This was a year to evaluate Wentz and see if he is worth that future 1.....I don't care what anyone says, Wentz is worth it. He has 100% not been the problem this year. You can win with him. He holds the ball too long at times. But you can win with him. He is still a top-20 caliber QB and his contract is actually not terrible compared to the on-going rise in QB salaries. 3) The brutal part of our schedule (first 5 games) was going to be at best a 3-2 start and most folks predicted 2-3. That would have been an OK start w that murder's row to begin the year. The Colts fell one game short of a 2-3 start. Close. Just not there. 4) Aside from the Seahawks game to start the year, the Colts have been in every game and in most cases leading late in the second half. They led in the 4th against the Rams. Obviously led in the Miami win (despite almost giving it away) and led most of this game. They can hang w good teams. They just cannot close them out. 5) The Colts have done this with: a less than 100% Fisher, Q hurt, Kelly dinged, Braden Smith out since Week 1, No TY Hilton, Kwity Paye hurt, Leonard hobbled, Rhodes hurt, Ya Sin hurt, Willis hurt. This team has yet to play a game even remotely close to healthy. And they have been in these games late. The reality is that the Colts are not going to be a playoff team. And they likely will lose that 1 to the Eagles. But they are very much better than their record. And they will show it as they get healthy. It won't be enough. But the sky isn't falling even though it feels like it is. This loss hurts. A lot. They played the perfect game for basically 42 mins. Then the Hollywood TD happened and the secondary was decimated and it all fell apart. And yet still if they hit one FG out of the blocked one and the missed one, they win. This team does not have the margin for error that other teams do. But damn. They are not a bottom 5 team like their record indicates. This season will get better. It just will not be as good as fans who thought we were going to build on last year thought it would. It's a temporary step back before a leap forward in the future.
  3. I’ll be there at 6 since I’m first on the clock so I can kick us off whenever you say we are good.
  4. nfl.com set the order wrong. i dont think it would let chad correct it. so everyone is going to autodraft. letting it run. then i think chads gonna clear it and we meet back at 6pm ET to do the actual draft. Everyone am i tracking that right?
  5. hopefully it gets fixed in the next 7 mins . not sure what happens otherwise once the draft starts
  6. I am there and ready to go and kick us off at pick 1 if the order gets fixed as it should :-D
  7. Braden numbers finally in. Interesting stuff. he did get a $15M signing bonus. So the colts did finally use that. Cap numbers (2021-2025): $6.3 $11.6 $19.0 $16.7 $19.8 most of the money in the first three years. Only money due in 2024-2025 is the $3M a year in prorated signing bonus if he were not still on the roster. https://overthecap.com/player/braden-smith/6922/
  8. Not disagreeing conceptually with the idea. But it is very rare that the jobs most people have include signed contracts that tell you what you are going to make each year, etc. Most of us have jobs that if we are over-performing we can simply give two weeks notice and walk away to someone else that is willing to pay us more and give us the going rate for our services. So that's why i never really try to compare these sports jobs to regular jobs. Apples and oranges. I will gladly compare sports jobs to each other. And the NFL is unlike MLB and the NBA in a way that is clearly slanted towards the teams and not the players. That's why I rarely fault a player when they try to use whatever the little leverage is that they may have. It is also why the moment the guaranteed $ of a contract is all paid out to the player, you run the risk of the player being unhappy and this stuff happening. If the player is still performing at a high level, teams can often circumvent their angst by simply providing more guarantees in the construct of their existing deals. Not even upping their annual salary but just giving them more certainty for the future. In Howard's case it sounds like they even tried to take that approach and got no response. So if that is true i can totally see why he's requesting to move on.
  9. This is why what Ballard says rings true......you need to have the locker room in the right place before you can bring in outside guys and pay them. And it has to be the right guy. If you are going to bring in a CB and pay him $14M annually with basically $54M that you are going to have to pay him over the next 3 years (What Miami did with Byron Jones), then you have to see how your All-Pro current CB who is making $12M a year and who basically has no money guaranteed and is essentially year-to-year after this season could get upset. Especially when he outplayed that contract figure the previous year. I am all for a guy living up to his contract and the "he signed it" stuff. But the NFL is a different league than MLB or the NBA. The moment these guys don't justify their contract that both they and the team signed, the team walks away and pays them nothing. Even the dead cap hits are usually tied to the signing bonus or guarantees that have often already been paid out. So the player cuts cut with no new money going into his pocket. With how short their careers are, these guys need to basically re-negotiate every time they play well enough to out-perform their contract because the moment they under-perform it they are gone and never see the $ they thought they were getting when signed. End of the day you have Howard ticked off after the Jones signing and you have Chandler Jones ticked off after the JJ Watt signing. That is exactly why Ballard is spot on with saying they are picking and choosing their investments and much prefer to pay guys from within who earned it.
  10. All true I am more-so standing up for DL when anyone comes at him as not being good in coverage because really that is not what the narrative seems to be. And he was always going to lumped in with Warner and after they re-set the market Roquon Smith and then Devin White will likely surpass them on their next contracts. So I am all for it. I would also say to your points that even despite everything you said about DL vs FW, I believe DL actually has a better tackling percentage and lower missed tackle percentage too which is even more impressive. Either way, it will be fun to see how he and the defense play this year.
  11. Without getting overly political here, this is the exact two sides of the coin argument that is prevalent everywhere in our society today. Those that do not want a vaccine will say that "look he had it and he still got sick. why am i going to take it if i still can get sick afterwards. what is the point?" And those that do want the vaccine will say "look if i did not get the vaccine it could have been so much worse. look at the good getting the vaccine did for me." And it is becoming more and more obvious that the divide in the country between the camps and the two mindsets is becoming more and more dug in where people's minds are not being swayed much one way or another. The measures the NFL put in do about as much as they possibly can to encourage/force folks to get the vaccine. If people still wish to not do so, then the reality is that they somewhat know the risks both medically and NFL-wise and are making a conscious decision to accept the risks. Hope Frank gets healthy. I have a good friend that is a breakthrough case now too. Got vaccinated and has COVID and has super mild symptoms. He believes it is due to being vaccinated and if that is true for him then I am super glad he made the choice that he made.
  12. This is all 100% true but is also why you can't fault DL compared to Warner They have 100% different responsibilities. I'd be very curious to compare how often DL is in man vs zone compared to FW I do know two years ago the Colts were in the bottom10 in the NFL in frequency of man to man defense. If DL is constantly in zone and Warner is having more man to man duties then comparing their numbers becomes even more difficult. Also agreed on your grading play by play concept and if we look at that a place like PFF (which i recognize has their goods and bads) pretty much says how good DL is. Heading into last year they had DL ranked 3rd and FW 11th in the league. After last year they have FW ranked 2nd and DL 6th. The biggest nugget regarding their play by play ranking of DL that I take away is: "In three NFL seasons, Darius Leonard doesn’t have a bad PFF grade in any facet of play in any single season, which is a remarkable level of consistency at a position that is routinely exploited by modern offenses." And before last year (when DL had his worst year in coverage and FW had his best), PFF said after years 1 and 2 that "Leonard has posted grades of 75.0 or higher as a run defender, pass-rusher and coverage defender since 2018 — joining Wagner and the next guy on this list (Demario Davis) as the only two linebackers to do so." All I am getting at here is that advanced stats and basic stats all seem to say the similar thing: Leonard is above average in every facet of the game and as a result is seen as one of the top LBs around and that includes his coverage in the scheme that he is asked to play. That is kind of all I/we can ask for and of him.
  13. Thanks boss. And yes the three of us you mentioned I believe are heading to the other Colts elite league this season and we are trying to find out the handle of whoever was the Joe's league champ last year since I did not know it. Good luck and I hope the Joe's league fills. It is a fun league and fun group of guys.
  14. I would love to have access to numbers across the NFL to compare and see where Leonard fits amongst all off-ball LBs to see if he is truly average, above average or way above average and by how much. But in the absence of that I will just compare him only to Warner since Warner is currently one of the pillars of being seen as a good coverage LB So to give an idea on some numbers and how they compare in the first 3 years on average: DL- 78.1% completion percentage FW- 62.9% completion percentage DL- 8.90 yards per completion FW- 9.08 yards per completion DL- 5.75 average yards after catch FW- 5.98 average yards after catch DL- 6.70 yards per pass attempt targeting him FW- 5.60 yards per pass attempt targeting him DL- 6 TDs allowed FW- 7 TDs allowed My biggest takeaways from all of this is that Warner is indeed doing a considerably better job at limiting catches when he is targeted. To the tune of 15% less passes being completed against him. However, DL does a better job limiting the YAC and allows less yards per completion as well. At the end of the day I am not entirely sure how DL's numbers compare to all off-ball LBs, but they compare favorably to Warner everywhere except the completion percentage. It is a big difference and I am not throwing that away. But if DL makes any marked improvement there then he's knocking on the door of being right up there as a coverage LB all while being a better tackler (in volume and missed tackle percentage) having more tackles for a loss, having more forced fumbles, having significantly more takeaways (11 to 6), having way more sacks (15 to 4), having more QB hits (26 to 15), and even having slightly more passes defensed (22 to 21). DL deserves at least what FW is getting and it is easy to see why most think he deserves more. He has earned it up until this point. The danger is obviously once he's paid those huge numbers does he continue to produce in a manner that is worth the inflated contract? My guess is people won't think he earns it once he gets the big money but that is because we are spoiled with how good he has been for how cheap his contract has been until this point. I am happy to pay him and Q the big money and let the rest sort itself out. Especially with us not having big $ invested in expensive spots like WR, CB and Edge now and in the near future.
  15. I will say that there are tons of stats that can make an argument for or against how good someone is in coverage. Tight window stats. Pass rating against. Etc Etc. That said, this PFF article did a decent job laying out how solid Leonard, Warner and Roquon Smith are and did so before extension numbers came in. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-young-defensive-players-who-deserve-early-extensions-darius-leonard-jaire-alexander-bradley-chubb-and-more They predicted Darius to be the most expensive (5 yrs, $80M) with Smith and Warner right behind (5 years, $74M and 5 yrs $75M). They also expected Warner to net $40M guaranteed compared to $47.5M for Leonard. So even with coverage numbers and prowess included, the expectations was roughly $1M a year more for Leonard than Warner. Warner did better than anticipated. Leonard is likely going to come in above him. It is just the going rate. That said, when you look at the charts here you see Leonard was still a 75th to 80th percentage LB in coverage and has steadily been in that range the last year and a half. Smith and Warner are more on their upward swing and could be a little riskier in terms of paying for a year they may not reach again. Before 2020 Darius and Warner were similar. Last year Warner and Leonard started the year similarly around that 75th mark and then Darius staid there and Warner jumped towards the 90th percentile. All I am saying is that the narrative that Leonard can't cover is not really totally true. He is above average. Warner had an elite year and before that was similarly above average. I'd be fine paying Leonard the going rate. He makes some clutch key plays and is the heart of that D. If you do not pay a guy like him after all he has done for you then what message are you sending? He and Q are exactly the type of players you pay with that culture the locker-room has built. Kinda hard to say "we aren't going to play at the top of the FA market since we want to draft and develop our own and reward our own" and then not reward the most deserving guys lol
  16. Agreed 100% w this take. These two were always going to be grouped together and be slightly above Roquon Smith when it came to getting their extensions. Warner may not be as highly regarded in the IDP fantasy football community as Leonard since Leonard has some better stats, but in terms of impact on his defense and on the field they are almost interchangeable. Warner is really, really, really good. And he had an elite coverage season last year as well. Want to know how good? This article lays some of it out. https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-coverage-players-in-2020-49ers-lb-fred-warner-crashes-db-h He was, by their logic, the 4th best coverage player in 2021. The only LB to make the list. Darius deserves his payday. And he makes some more splash plays. But he and Warner were always going to get similar money. So this sets the stage to give a very similar deal and lock him up.
  17. The structure Moton got is pretty ideal for a team. No increase in the first year and then going 19.2 and 20.8 with absolutely no guaranteed salary after the third year and only $3M per year in dead cap space. Moton's deal could essentially be a 3 year $50M deal for all intents and purposes with the last $6M paid out over the 4th year if cut. Those last two years totally $41m have no guarantees and only include $3M a year in prorated cap charges. If you told me Smith would come for around 3 yrs and $50M w basically options years tacked on the back end then I'd be totally content with that. I will be very interested to see how the colts structure these upcoming deals with how rarely they give signing bonuses that pro-rate. Even w Buckner it was almost all base salaries and roster bonuses with no obligations in the two out years. Let's see how crafty they can get w these young guys in paying them what they deserve but also not saddling themselves especially in later years.
  18. Hopefully @Colt92 can help out as I know you have reached out. The only info from last year that I knew was that "Zero Lucks Given" was the team that beat me in the 'Ship and NFL.com only lists the owner as "Dan" so that is all I could go by. It would definitely help to know who owns what team in each league especially as we all start to interact. Looking forward to joining you guys this year here and hopefully we can figure out who the other Joe's owner from last year is.
  19. looking forward to it and happy to move over and get to compete w other forum members. thanks!
  20. I know he’s been on the team longer than Tevi and Davenport, but for what it is worth Holden was getting the first set of 1st team reps at LT shouldn't entirely be ruled out even if Tevi is the more likely week 1 fill in
  21. I like Glow, but the reality is that between Reed, Pinter and Frees we likely have suitable replacements on roster. Reed may only be a one year deal right now, but i am not totally convinced Glow is actually better than Reed currently. And Pinter has a lot of promise too. So most likely we do move on from Glow at season's end and one of those guys could feasibly be starting in front of him at some point this season.
  22. Just announced today. Obviously the numbers are still fluid as mentioned. But this gives an idea of the highest the cap would be which is $10M more than 2020 and a little over $25M more than this year. If there is a big increase it would come in 2023 when new TV money and those huge TV contracts get factored in.
  23. This is such a cluster. The NFLPA is really looking out for the veteran players that they feel are established and do not need to go to voluntary things and that they want to protect from excessive team activities etc. They are 100% not looking out for young or unestablished players trying to crack a roster, keep a job or make a name for themselves. Also, this stuff is right in contracts. Literally all the players, agents, NFLPA reps know this or should know this. They even have acknowledged that players w $ tied to workout bonuses would likely attend because they are not trying to mess with players' money and livelihood. And yet they did just that by trying to have them work out away from team facilities. This would totally make sense last year w COVID running crazy. Thinking facilities might not be safe health-wise around a lot of ppl. But this year it was a power grab to try to limit off-season and pre-season workouts and activities. I always loved the Peyton Manning quote about Marvin Harrison saying "They pay you to practice, the games you play for free. " At the end of the day this is one of those things where i truly want to feel bad for the players but i have a hard time feeling bad for them. they are just getting terrible guidance and listening to it. hopefully players make wise decisions since this is their livelihood at the end of the day. I may be in the minority but if it were me id be at the team facility covering my butt and my check lol
  24. At the end of the day it comes down to if the team is better. And @CR91 and others hit it on the head w identifying Wentz as really the centerpiece here. - Our RBs are the same and should maybe be a tick better as Taylor continues to progress and as we get anything out of Mack this season compared to being without him last year. - Our OL basically will be the same with some significant depth improvement. Reed is a huge huge improvement at OG if we have a need to play him. Pinter will be another year in and hopefully another year better. OT depth w Tevi and Davenport to add to Holden is way better. So really it comes down to how close to vintage Fisher we get and when. But it is a current concern. - Our TE room is basically the same w hopefully some more chances for Allie-Cox (which would be an improvement w his ceiling) and replacing Burton who we got nothing out of w the speed and shiftiness of Granson. I think thats a slight upgrade. - WR room is the same. Hilton cannot be utilized much less than he was last year. He should be a bit better at a minimum, especially w us able to throw downfield more. Pittman is a year more polished. Campbell is the big thing here. People that complained in the media or fan-wise about the Colts not doing much at WR seem to forget we are basically adding a talent in Campbell that would be right up there w top market assets if he can just stay on the field. Basically this group should be slightly better than last year just w depth improvements at the bottom of the roster and the better utilization of Hilton and could be a huge improvement if Campbell manages to stay on the field for the first time. - QB all comes down to which Wentz we get. 2017 Wentz and its a grand slam. 2018 or 2019 Wentz and it is still a home run as a top-half of the league QB. 2020 Wentz and it is a strikeout. Defense: Secondary remains pretty much the same with Tell coming back, Davis and Davis added for depth. The loss at DB coach is the biggest loss here. But likely we are around the same. LB again remains almost the same. Walker out hurts the depth and the leadership but it is time for Okereke to get more time and to step up. It could be addition by subtraction but for the leadership alone I'll say we got slightly worse here, DL is the mystery. Are the additions in Paye and Dayo better than the losses in Houston and Autry? Will a hopefully healthy Turay be better than the loss of one? Will Lewis finally reach his potential w more playing time in the Autry role? Can Banogu show anything? My gut says the DL got better. But they have to produce. it is time for the young bucks to put up or shut up. At the end of the day my net sum makes me feel like the Defense is around the same with the DL dictating if we got better or worse. We invested in the DL to get better. Now they either show it or its a loss. Offensively we are weaker at LT until Fisher is healthy. But we are better prepared to handle it than last year. And Campbell really could make a huge huge difference for the offense. It obviously comes down to Wentz. My gut says we are actually better offensively but that we will have some rocky times with Wentz's propensity to fumble and leave our defense on a short field. I think the real challenge here is that most people see the Chiefs, Browns and Bills as being clearly better. Maybe the Ravens too. So if the Colts aren't "definitely" better than it looks like we lost ground. But today I feel a lot better than i did yesterday before we had at least the option of Fisher at some point to help on the blindside.
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