Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

Colts trade out of first round


CR91

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t yhink we have a yelling and screaming coaching staff.   We only had one screamer last year that I know of — the OL coach.   He did a good job and still got fired.

 

So I don’t think that Sweat doesn’t like to be yelled at was a factor.   Honestly, not at all.    I don’t think our team doctors and the owner would let us draft the kid. 

 

It is probably a combination of factors, but we will never know because Ballard doesn't want to disclose that information (which is probably smart from a team standpoint but not obviously for us).

 

There is no question that Montez Sweat is talented, just look at this production and performance at the Combine. Obviously Ballard knew that Sweat was on the board at 26 but we still traded down. People are making a big deal about Sweat not being picked by us but for all we know (in fact probably so!) he wasn't even on our draft board! There are certainly reports from the medical side of things as well as from a character/coachability side of things that can explain why a lot of teams were hesitant about him, NOT JUST US!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Heard the jets may trade with us again

We'll see in a few minutes.  But what is the speculation as to who they are after?

 

Some teams may want to trade up for Lock, but the Jets already have their QB.  So it would seem a long ways to go and a lot to give up for which player?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/25/2019 at 10:11 PM, dodsworth said:

Any ideas who could be our 2nd rd Darius Leonard this year?

 

On 4/25/2019 at 10:13 PM, Jared Cisneros said:

Ben banogu. Keep an eye on him.

Went back and saw I predicted this one on the nose. Give me a standing ovation forum! Now all Banogu has to do is be Darius Leonard this year! :lol:

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/26/2019 at 11:43 AM, chad72 said:

 

Here is an article that quantifies a little bit further, one of the good articles on StampedeBlue lately:

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/4/26/18517416/did-chris-ballard-make-a-good-trade-av-value-massey-thaler-draft

 

 

Good research there. They shy away from devaluing the future pick, which makes the trade come out in favor of the Colts almost across the board. If you devalue the 2020 pick, it balances out and looks like a push, which is probably accurate. I said I wasn't over the moon about the trade, but never said I thought we lost it, and I don't. I think it was a fair trade.

 

Add in the likely fact that Ballard and Co felt #26 and #46 were basically equal in this year's draft, it becomes obvious why they liked the trade and pulled the trigger. Then they got another pick out of #46, and picked at #49. Ballard did a good job coming out with two extra picks this weekend, plus a future second.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Easy to forget how much trade values fluctuate with actual situations and draft years.  Just as trade ups for a QB in the top 5 are often in excess of charted value...the market gets it right every time.

 

In 2013 the Cowboys traded back from 18 to 31 and netted a 3rd round pick (83).   Seemed too little at the time but it’s all they could get in a draft class that turned out to be historically poor.  Likely GMs knew it.

 

I think Ballard got better value from the Redskins than that trade in 2013...with potential upside should the Skins struggle as anticipated next year. Might not have even gotten this much without Sweat still on the board.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Good research there. They shy away from devaluing the future pick, which makes the trade come out in favor of the Colts almost across the board. If you devalue the 2020 pick, it balances out and looks like a push, which is probably accurate. I said I wasn't over the moon about the trade, but never said I thought we lost it, and I don't. I think it was a fair trade.

 

Add in the likely fact that Ballard and Co felt #26 and #46 were basically equal in this year's draft, it becomes obvious why they liked the trade and pulled the trigger. Then they got another pick out of #46, and picked at #49. Ballard did a good job coming out with two extra picks this weekend, plus a future second.

I don't devalue future picks for teams personally, and I'm guessing Ballard doesn't either. He knows his job is secure, and would rather have a mid-high 2nd next year, than a 3rd this year. Look at the 34th pick of Rock Ya-Sin from the Jets, he's a much better player than any 3rd rounder in the 2018 draft if we would of taken it a year early. Ballard is also giving us a better pick next year in a better class to stack drafts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't devalue future picks for teams personally, and I'm guessing Ballard doesn't either. He knows his job is secure, and would rather have a mid-high 2nd next year, than a 3rd this year. Look at the 34th pick of Rock Ya-Sin from the Jets, he's a much better player than any 3rd rounder in the 2018 draft if we would of taken it a year early. Ballard is also giving us a better pick next year in a better class to stack drafts.

 

I feel like you're saying two different things. Getting a mid second next year is the cost for a third this year, that's the typical standard in a one-for-one trade. 

 

As for judging Rock Ya-Sin as being better than anyone from last year, I think that's premature. His pre-draft stock supports where he was taken, but he isn't 'a much better player' than anyone, yet. 

 

My point in my previous post is just that it seems the value charts that show the Colts winning that trade don't devalue the future pick, even though there's a value precedent in the NFL that a future pick is devalued by one round. Once you account for that precedent, the trade looks like a push.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

  • Thread of the Week

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • I’d like to focus on one paragraph.   The one about AR working out.   You connect AR working out, which will take 2-4 more years to confirm with “the roster as it is now.”    Thats a flaw.   When we know about AR working out, whether it’s 26, or 27,  that will be connected to the roster that he has THEN, not the roster he has NOW.   See the disconnect?  The roster should be better to support AR.   And I wouldn’t call guys like Luvu or Stone, both guys I like, as shiny toys.  They’re solid players I think we’d all like.  The Sony toys are the four big name plays you listed.  Those guys are just too expensive.  
    • Unless you're the Lions and draft 18th.  I did like Jack Campbell last year.    Agree do think Cooper would be around 20th and later.
    • Im not reading that it would be a shock to anyone if Cooper went in the first.  Just likely the bottom third of the first.  Perhaps after pick 20.   He’s likely the best LB in this class. 
    • Honestly, it wouldn't shock me to see Edgerrin Cooper drafted on Day 1.  He is one of those players that has the "it factor" enough for a team to draft on Day 1.  Each year we see it happen and so-called professionals nowhere close to all those mock drafts.  
    • That's fair.   So, let's say AR pans out - are we serious Super Bowl contenders then? As the roster is right now, with a high-level AR?   I don't think so. I think our roster - disregarding the QB - is a ways behind other contenders. And even worse, I think the roster is just built wrong. This year Ballard has spent a lot of money making sure our defense can defend the run while everyone else are building to stop the passing game. Everything Ballard does is just contradictory to what works in the modern NFL.   So what about the other 9 guys I mentioned?   Wilkins would've been a Buckner level DT to seriously improve the pass rush up the middle. Huff had at least 28% more pressures than ANY of our guys (Buckner highest) while playing 161 FEWER pass rush snaps. And he was signed for a hair over $17m/year and you have "no idea why I'd think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue"?   Do you think Geno Stone and Frankie Luvu are "bright lights"? I think they are affordable players who would improve this roster in areas of weakness. Same with the other 7 affordable guys I mentioned. The times the McLeod signings work out are so far between it's laughable, but the few who do workout somehow always make people forget the tens of 1 year jags he signs that don't.   We do know, but we also all see the results and that's what people want to see change.   I respect your opinion on this and I don't want to come off as harsh towards you (or anyone else). 👍  But I very much disagree that what Ballard is doing is working.
  • Members

    • Solid84

      Solid84 6,065

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Bravo

      Bravo 1,431

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • NewColtsFan

      NewColtsFan 20,793

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • OhioColt

      OhioColt 385

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Kirie89

      Kirie89 6

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • NFLfan

      NFLfan 16,969

      Moderators
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Zoltan

      Zoltan 3,102

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
×
×
  • Create New...