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Colts trade out of first round


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20 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t yhink we have a yelling and screaming coaching staff.   We only had one screamer last year that I know of — the OL coach.   He did a good job and still got fired.

 

So I don’t think that Sweat doesn’t like to be yelled at was a factor.   Honestly, not at all.    I don’t think our team doctors and the owner would let us draft the kid. 

 

It is probably a combination of factors, but we will never know because Ballard doesn't want to disclose that information (which is probably smart from a team standpoint but not obviously for us).

 

There is no question that Montez Sweat is talented, just look at this production and performance at the Combine. Obviously Ballard knew that Sweat was on the board at 26 but we still traded down. People are making a big deal about Sweat not being picked by us but for all we know (in fact probably so!) he wasn't even on our draft board! There are certainly reports from the medical side of things as well as from a character/coachability side of things that can explain why a lot of teams were hesitant about him, NOT JUST US!

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THIS is one of the most outdated views on the draft. There is nothing value-wise that should make a future pick worth less than a current year's pick. If I were a GM I'd abuse old time GMs who think f

Umm, I wonder if Ballard knew that?

Nonsense.    

6 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Heard the jets may trade with us again

We'll see in a few minutes.  But what is the speculation as to who they are after?

 

Some teams may want to trade up for Lock, but the Jets already have their QB.  So it would seem a long ways to go and a lot to give up for which player?  

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19 minutes ago, DougDew said:

We'll see in a few minutes.  But what is the speculation as to who they are after?

 

Some teams may want to trade up for Lock, but the Jets already have their QB.  So it would seem a long ways to go and a lot to give up for which player?  

Right. It makes no sense.

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On 4/25/2019 at 10:11 PM, dodsworth said:

Any ideas who could be our 2nd rd Darius Leonard this year?

 

On 4/25/2019 at 10:13 PM, Jared Cisneros said:

Ben banogu. Keep an eye on him.

Went back and saw I predicted this one on the nose. Give me a standing ovation forum! Now all Banogu has to do is be Darius Leonard this year! :lol:

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On 4/26/2019 at 11:43 AM, chad72 said:

 

Here is an article that quantifies a little bit further, one of the good articles on StampedeBlue lately:

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/4/26/18517416/did-chris-ballard-make-a-good-trade-av-value-massey-thaler-draft

 

 

Good research there. They shy away from devaluing the future pick, which makes the trade come out in favor of the Colts almost across the board. If you devalue the 2020 pick, it balances out and looks like a push, which is probably accurate. I said I wasn't over the moon about the trade, but never said I thought we lost it, and I don't. I think it was a fair trade.

 

Add in the likely fact that Ballard and Co felt #26 and #46 were basically equal in this year's draft, it becomes obvious why they liked the trade and pulled the trigger. Then they got another pick out of #46, and picked at #49. Ballard did a good job coming out with two extra picks this weekend, plus a future second.

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Easy to forget how much trade values fluctuate with actual situations and draft years.  Just as trade ups for a QB in the top 5 are often in excess of charted value...the market gets it right every time.

 

In 2013 the Cowboys traded back from 18 to 31 and netted a 3rd round pick (83).   Seemed too little at the time but it’s all they could get in a draft class that turned out to be historically poor.  Likely GMs knew it.

 

I think Ballard got better value from the Redskins than that trade in 2013...with potential upside should the Skins struggle as anticipated next year. Might not have even gotten this much without Sweat still on the board.

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24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Good research there. They shy away from devaluing the future pick, which makes the trade come out in favor of the Colts almost across the board. If you devalue the 2020 pick, it balances out and looks like a push, which is probably accurate. I said I wasn't over the moon about the trade, but never said I thought we lost it, and I don't. I think it was a fair trade.

 

Add in the likely fact that Ballard and Co felt #26 and #46 were basically equal in this year's draft, it becomes obvious why they liked the trade and pulled the trigger. Then they got another pick out of #46, and picked at #49. Ballard did a good job coming out with two extra picks this weekend, plus a future second.

I don't devalue future picks for teams personally, and I'm guessing Ballard doesn't either. He knows his job is secure, and would rather have a mid-high 2nd next year, than a 3rd this year. Look at the 34th pick of Rock Ya-Sin from the Jets, he's a much better player than any 3rd rounder in the 2018 draft if we would of taken it a year early. Ballard is also giving us a better pick next year in a better class to stack drafts.

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12 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't devalue future picks for teams personally, and I'm guessing Ballard doesn't either. He knows his job is secure, and would rather have a mid-high 2nd next year, than a 3rd this year. Look at the 34th pick of Rock Ya-Sin from the Jets, he's a much better player than any 3rd rounder in the 2018 draft if we would of taken it a year early. Ballard is also giving us a better pick next year in a better class to stack drafts.

 

I feel like you're saying two different things. Getting a mid second next year is the cost for a third this year, that's the typical standard in a one-for-one trade. 

 

As for judging Rock Ya-Sin as being better than anyone from last year, I think that's premature. His pre-draft stock supports where he was taken, but he isn't 'a much better player' than anyone, yet. 

 

My point in my previous post is just that it seems the value charts that show the Colts winning that trade don't devalue the future pick, even though there's a value precedent in the NFL that a future pick is devalued by one round. Once you account for that precedent, the trade looks like a push.

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