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Everything posted by stitches

  1. Here's every team's official visits by position: The positions the Colts seem to be expressing most interest are: EDGE, CB, TE, RB, OL Not much interest in WRs it seems...
  2. I don't like how any of the available simulators do it. They all use a single board for all teams and as we know this is not how the draft works... different teams have different boards and they draft by them while factoring in needs to some extent. I wanted to make a different type of simulator myself, but didn't have the time this year. I think I will make one for next year and I will take different boards and assign them to different teams and this way you could get more representative way of how the draft would unfold. Ideally you would have some approximation for a board for all different teams. For example, if you know that a team runs zone blocking scheme predominantly you bump up all zone blocking OLinemen and you drop all the power blocking OLinement for this team's specific board... If they run press-man defense you bump up the best press-corners and you drop all the off-man zone corners for this team's specific board.. .etc. You get the idea. Get somewhat personalized boards for every team depending on what they run and how they play. It won't be perfect but I feel like it might give you better idea of how teams would draft and IMO it will give you better prediction of what the chance is that certain players drop to certain positions.
  3. Understandable, but yeah. I have no college team rooting interest in this one. I just like Tillery better. (on the field that is... Wilkins seems to be drawing rave reviews about his off-field/leadership/character stuff, while like we discussed earlier Tillery is drawing some questions about being too well-rounded outside of football... I don't know how to evaluate those and I haven't talked to them so... I defer to who I like on the field and leave the character evaluation to the pros(Ballard and the Colts FO))
  4. My thought process goes like this - our only legit high level receiver we had last year was TY Hilton. Hilton is great and he's versatile... which means he had snaps from different formation and from different WR positions. No other receiver should come in the consideration about what type of receiver we need or should draft. None of them are good enough and/or established enough to make us pass on a great receiver in favor of lesser one. We just need playmakers... from anywhere we can get them. Receivers very rarely are one trick ponies nowadays. They will line up in different positions around Hilton. The goal should be making teams doubling TY pay by either extending the field vertically with a second speedster that can win down the field(Holywood Brown, Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, etc)... or with a YAC receiver that can make plays after the catch(Parris Campbell, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown), or with alpha type X receiver that can beat his man one-on-one when TY gets doubled(Butler, Metcalf, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Boykin, etc)... I think Reich is creative enough to use all of those in different alignments and make them complement TY. Just draft the best receiver when you decide to take one. I really don't mind any type. We need help at ALL positions on the offense. None of them is 100% taken since Hilton is being moved around.
  5. I agree. Wilkins is not bad by any stretch of the imagination and I'd take him with 26 too... but I just have Tillery ranked super high and I think his pass-rush upside is much higher so... I have to go with that if both are on the board.
  6. I take Tillery easy over Wilkins. But that's just me... with or without tipped passes.
  7. Meh... This is not close to the top of things I care about with DTs... Quinnen has batted like... 2 passes in his career too. I posted a study yesterday that initially made a connection between batted passes in college to production in the league, but it turned out that pretty much all of the effect was due to JJ Watt and if you remove him from the sample there was no correlation between those. Would I rather he had 10 tipped passes? Sure... would it stop me from taking him? Not really...
  8. Rumor is he's still running around the 3d cone... hopefully he finishes it before the draft comes. edit: on a serious note - he's like... top 3 weirdest evaluation in this draft for me. I honestly don't know what to do with him. I have him ranked somewhere in the 4th, but honestly... even if he's there in the 4th... I'd still be like... I'd much rather someone else take him.
  9. Too smart and 'worldly'... Might have actually read some books while in college. NFL teams cannot have that. Might read about CTE in some book and decide he doesn't want to play football anymore.
  10. Round 1 - #26 A: Jonathan Abrams, S, Miss. State B: Jeffery Simmons, DT Miss State C: Chris Lindstrom, OL, Boston College Round 2a - #34 A: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame B: Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware C: Charles Omenihu, DL, Texas Round 2b - #59 A: Darnell Savage, S, Maryland B: Renell Wren, DT, USC, C: Sean Bunting, CB, Central Michigan Round 3 - #89 A: JoeJuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt B: Ben Banogu, DE, TCU C: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M Round 4a - #129 A: Maxx Crosby, DE, Eastern Michigan B: Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State Round 4b - #135 A: Mike Edwards, S, Kentucky B: Penny Hart, WR, Georgia State Round 5 - #164 A: Dakota Allen, LB, Texas Tech B: Malik Gant, S, Marshall Round 6 - #199 A: Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls B: Donald Parham, TE, Stetson Round 7 - #240 A: Iman Marshall, S/CB, USC B: Alex Bars, OG, Notre Dame
  11. And here's my thoughts and conjectures: -if a player from the top 15 doesn't drop to 26, IMO there is a good chance we try to move down. Seems like Ballard would love to have more picks in the 2nd and 3d rounds than one pick at 26 -EXPECT surprising picks... a player who media has ranked as 3d-4th rounder might be taken by Ballard at 26... or 34? Similar to how Darius Leonard pick went.  -OL is an option ... relatively early too IMO... if one of the premier OTs drop... I wouldn't be shocked if we picked him at 26.
  12. Some things that made impression on me: -Ballard doesn't think the depth at the top of the draft is as good this year as it was last year -After about top 12-15... it's all about flavor and what you like and prefer for your system and less about huge differences in quality. 15 to 70 is a huge cluster of similarly rated players... -Our draft board is DIFFERENT than what he's seen in the media and draft experts. Note from me -EXPECT surprising picks... a player who media has ranked as 3d-4th rounder might be taken by Ballard at 26... or 34? Similar to how Darius Leonard pick went. -Even if a severe need is not filled, we still have time, it doesn't have to filled in the draft. We have more FA, cut down day, trades, etc. -People are too quick to judge and lack patience with the young players. Give the young players/rookies time to develop. Have confidence in your process to develop players. -we will have between 160 and 180 players on the board when it's all said and done. We filter out players that don't fit be it from schematic stand point, athletic stand point, character stand point, etc... filter them out. It takes discipline on draft day. -we have some guys that have character risk, but we are comfortable with them. "Anybody that's up there[on the board], we are willing to take" -Scouting world is flat now. Not many true sleepers and hidden gems... they are going high nowadays in the draft. -Last year we had good sense of how the 1st round would go... now it's more unpredictable. It's about flavor of what you prefer. -We have a cluster of 6-to-8 players that we will consider at 26. Hopefully some of them are there, but if none of them are there we still have a plan to proceed(My note: maybe trade down?) -can't talk to enough people and you can't do enough digging on players... even the seemingly clean ones. -Ballard and Reich are in constant communication and will continue to meet several times before the draft. They are on the same page about the draft and who we are considering and who we are not -we like AC,without a question we like AC. We go year to year... we cannot force it. We cannot take a tackle and think this guy is AC's replacement. We cannot do that. -you cannot have enough good offensive linemen
  13. Here's the audio of the press-conference: https://www.colts.com/audio/4-22-chris-ballard-pre-draft-press-conference-audio
  14. I agree overall but worth pointing out that it was Ed Dodds that did most of the leg work on Clark when Seattle decided to draft him: https://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/nfl/seattle-seahawks/seahawks-insider-blog/article26343166.html It's probably dangerous to extend the same leniency to Ballard, but at least we know that one of our main execs is one of the people that gave the OK to Seattle when they were drafting Clark.
  15. Press-conference is about to start. Here's the link if you want to watch: https://www.colts.com/video/live-chris-ballard-discusses-upcoming-draft
  16. What I've heard on various podcasts I've listened to: 1. Dane Brugler said on Josh Norris' podcast that Montez Sweat's heart condition is the SAME condition that Hurst had last year. There seems to be LESS worry about him for whatever reason(they said Hurst has had episodes of severe increase of heart rate in the pre-draft process, while Sweat never had that problem... also Hurst has family history with the same problem, while Sweat didn't), BUT another of Norris' guests(sorry don't remember who it was) said that 4 teams told him he's off their board, while Brugler said the teams he's talked to still have him... They both said it's worth noting that this is the lying season and it's possible teams are throwing smokescreens. Still... it's possible Sweat's fall has something to do with his heart condition. 2. DeAndre Baker is interviewing REALLY bad with teams. Multiple teams coming out with reports that he's had horrible interviews with them. This was reported by Albert Breer on the MMQB podcast. 3. Here's some Colts related buzz by Tony Pauline: http://draftanalyst.com/earlier-we-think
  17. Josh Jacobs is the clearcut winner on this list for me. I'd be alright with every other player on the list.
  18. In the grade itself they don't take into account the level of competition(just like they don't do it in NFL no matter if your OT has faced Khalil Mack in the game or Tarell Basham). They just evaluate what's happening on the field. I think the place where they do put context on those grades is on their board. For example they have this small school gem Ronheen Bingham from Arkansas State. He blows up in their grading(I think he was the 2nd or 3d highest grade for EDGE rusher they gave this season). The place where they input the level of competition that grade was achieved against is on their big board and thus he's not ranked in the top 10, but rather in the 60s... so even though he was one of the highest graded players for them this season he's a 3d rounder on their board. I've heard them talk about Andy Isabella and that he always performed well against top opponents(200 yards and 2 TDs vs Georgia, 200 yards and TD vs SFU, 100 and TD vs Boston College, etc)... so I guess they take that into account too when they rank him this high.
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