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Everything posted by stitches

  1. stitches

    Skip Clueless Prescot > Luck

    Dakich is local knockoff version of Cowherd...
  2. I haven't listened to it yet, but I saw that he's been guest on Schefter's podcast so I'm posting for those interested. I might post highlights later when I manage to get some free time to listen to it.
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    Peyton breaks down the Pascal TD

    I love seeing Siriani coaching the young receivers during the game as the situations are unfolding... as they are preparing for a TD play. He knew exactly what part of the play to emphasize to Pascal in this case and in a way that would both focus him for what's important and wouldn't give the play away.
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    Skip Clueless Prescot > Luck

    (why do people keep paying attention to the likes of Steven A., Cowherd, Skip? This is precisely why they express outrageous takes... because it attracts attention and outrage and creates clicks... STOP FEEDING THOSE GLORIFIED TROLLS!)
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    Why the Colts will put Dallas ^here's something that might be a positive in our favor. Similar to how Mariota's splits of playing vs man or zone coverage heavily favor his production vs man coverage, the same can be said about Prescott and Amari Cooper. This might be an OK matchup for us on the defensive end in that respect.
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    Why the Colts will put Dallas

    Sherman doesn't have the athleticism of players like Byron Jones and Ramsey. This is the type of corners I'm talking about. They can afford to play TY tight and now allow him any catches precisely because they have the long speed to hang with him.
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    Why the Colts will put Dallas

    Yeah... great point that you mentioned both Kelly and Alie-Cox. While Kelly's impact is more easily seen most people gloss over Alie-Cox' blocking in the run game. After Doyle went down(which coincided with Kelly going down and Cox going down our run offense has been largely impotent. Mo is hell of a run blocker. He's much closer to Doyle(who was ranked no.1 in the league in run blocking) than any of our other TEs(this includes the specialist blocker Hewitt). When I watch him I could never guess that this is the basketball guy. He plays with toughness and strength in the run game. We been missing that a ton in the last several games since both him and Doyle went down.
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    Why the Colts will put Dallas

    TY usually has a problem with athletic big CBs(as opposed to small fast ones) and that's exactly what Dallas has. They usually outphysical him and jam him on his releases to disrupt his routes. I would be interested to see how that matchup vs Byron Jones goes. Dallas' defense kind of has similar strengths to the Jags defense(Jones-Awuzie vs Ramsey-Bouye are very similar pairings, strong defensive lines with some beasts on the edges, one of whom can get inside( Lawrence-Randy Gregory/Crawford vs Campbell-Ngakue ), very good linebacking cores (Vander Esch -Jaylon Smith vs Myles Jack-Telvin Smith)... I wonder if they will try replicating what the Jags did to us last game. Overall I'm not sure we matchup great vs them, but then again we've been rolling at home so... hopefully that factor plays into it too.
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    Colts have the #1 defense in NFL since week 7

    I agree wholeheartedly but I will add that being opportunistically good is a huge step up from previous years when we were consistently bad regardless of opponent.
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    Do you think this was a good year?

    In one of the threads before the season about our expectations/hopes for the season, I said that I won't be judging this season by wins and losses or playoff appearance. Some of the criteria I had before the season about judging this season were - I wanted to see Luck at or close to his pre-injury self by the end of the season - I wanted to see improvement on the O-line - I wanted to see future(if not present) building blocks/elite players on the roster - I wanted to feel like we have the right people at the helm(GM/Coaches) With all that said... to me this season is a resounding success, not matter how we finish it... even if we lose all 3 remaining games I feel like I've seen enough to have a positive answer on all of those points ... Luck is back, the O-line looks much improved, we got blue chip prospects in Nelson and Leonard and we have a ton of other great developments and hopes for the long-term roster... and i really like how Reich has handled himself and how he's designing the offense, alleviating areas of struggle when needed and pushing the advantages this roster has over opponents. I like his playcalling, I like the aggressiveness(this is WITHOUT hedges and without asterisks about the 4th down aggression - I love it, I hope he keeps doing it, we will see the rewards in the long-term). Everything else we get in the form of wins and potential playoff success is a bonus for me. To me, this is a not just a good year, this was a great year for the Colts and it sets us up incredibly well for the future with a roster on the rise, with Luck playing his best football ever, with good coaches I trust, with tons of money in free agency, with several additional picks in the draft and a GM I trust to make the right decisions. I couldn't really ask for much more.
  11. I finally decided to run a simulation on Fanspeak for the 2019 draft and ended up playing around with it for half an hour. Here's a thread for everybody to post their own simulated mock drafts. Here's my first of the year:
  12. The more I think about it the more I feel like I don't care about the position we draft and I'm becoming more and more of a Best Value Available absolutist. Draft the best player. Don't draft by need. Just get the best value. If that's IDL, do that. I like the DLine talent throughout the opening two rounds so I wouldn't mind if we drafted something else in the first and IDL in the second... and I think we can get good players in both rounds, but if a premier blue chip talent falls to us on the interior... draft the guy... we are still building our young talent base. We cannot afford to make compromises based on needs. None of our interior players are pro-bowl or all-pro level. They look solid and we are not struggling mightily, but at the same time IMO they are not performing well against the better OLines in the league. Sure they demolished two of the worst OLines in the league last couple of weeks, but I want us to add premier talent that can do it against damn near every match up that is put in front of them. Right now we cannot do that so I'm perfectly good with drafting a player in the first anywhere on the line who can do it. But yah... at this point I'm thinking much more about specific players and whether they deserve to be taken where we fall in the draft, rather than thinking about positions.
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    Matthew Adams Is Earning His Spot

    I'm still wary of his over-aggressiveness(I hope it doesn't cost us in some important moment), but he's been playing well... Good pick so far.
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    Props to that Colts Defense

    This defense is rounding up to shape. I still don't think we have the high end playmakers we need for this defense to be great, but if the offense is functioning at top level we can win games with even average-ish defense. Props to Eberflus and props to the secondary coaches. The secondary performs much better when we create pressure with the pass rush. Not that it's surprising or shocking but worth pointing out just how pronounced that link is. Imagine if we somehow get an elite pass-rusher from the draft...
  15. This is the WR that is most intriguing and has the best WR1 potential in this year's draft IMO. HIs injury puts an interesting wrinkle in his draft process. I've heard a ton of different things about his injury and I have no idea what I should believe - from the injury being career threatening to it being relatively minor... I guess we will know more as the draft process unfolds, but he's definitely one of my favorite receivers in this year's draft and would love to have him on the Colts.
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    Quinnen Williams

    I really really really hope Kiper and McShay are right, but unfortunately I don't see how this will be the case. IMO they simply haven't started watching film or haven't started calling their sources. I would be shocked if Quinnen gets out of the top 5 of the draft and if he does I would consider trading one of our second round picks in order to move up in the first and get him around 7-10 range...
  17. I got some of my recent favorites in this one. I got potential no. 1 receiver, potential slot receiver... I got our future feature back in Darrell Henderson... I got a very interesting tackle/guard prospect in Cody Ford form Oklahoma. I expect him to start climbing up boards so I'm not sure he will be available come draft day. Oh... and I also got 2 defensive linemen with the first couple of picks. Hopefully this satisfies the "we need to draft as many defensive players as possible" crowd. Gary Johnson is a bit under the radar ILB. He had a good game the other day vs Oklahoma but he's been a favorite of mine for a while.
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    Ballard talks the first 3/4's of the Season...

    Just for the record I'm not always on the side of make the play that gives you highest point average. I'm on the side of make the play that gives you the highest chance to succeed in whatever you define as success(in overwhelming number of cases that means "what gives you best chance to win the game). The best example I can give for maximizing the points you get being different than maximizing your chance to win is the play where a RB would slide on the 1 yard line after taking a 1st down in a 1 point game where you can drain up the clock after this play, instead of going for the TD but leaving the opponent time to answer. In this case the play ends up giving you 0 points but gives you 100% probability of winning, while the alternative might be getting 7 points but giving your opponent something like... 10% chance of winning the game(they get the ball back go on a drive, 2 pt conversion and then win in overtime for example). This is just one example, there are multiple other cases where you have to evaluate the circumstances of the specific game and how much you should value clock vs points, field position vs points, etc.
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    Ballard talks the first 3/4's of the Season...

    That's true. I offered a simplified calculation but I don't think the more refined calculations would do much favor for your side of the argument. There are also other variables... like the Colts being in the top 3 in the league at converting 3d and 4th downs and the best in the league at converting 3d and 4th and shorts(not the 60% I took, but much higher). Like the success of the Jags stopping those type of plays(I don't know that stat). For this objection to be valid you need to think that a top 3 offense in those situation would have 43% or lower success rate at taking 1 yard against this Jags team that has been good but not great defensively this year. I don't think that's reasonable. I do not warrant your second objection though. I do not think this consideration should come into play in the first quarter of a game, especially when in the previous game just a couple of weeks prior the same teams combined for over 50 points. You couldn't have possibly predicted that this game will end up 6-0... for all we know we would have needed every point we could muster in a shootout this early in the game.
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    Ballard talks the first 3/4's of the Season...

    You need to judge the process not the results. In both cases you cite the decision was at least sound analytically. Even Ballard stated that the coaches work with analytics people and that's what the analytics is saying. With the decision in the game vs the Texans the calculation is more complex, but let me show you just how good the decision to go on the 1 yard line is. The success rate of FG from the 1 yard line snap is close to but not 100% but lets for the purpose of simplicity and charity give you the full 100%. If you choose to go for the field goal you get an average of ~3.0 points over large sample. The average for 2 point conversion this year in the NFL is 60%. I cannot find the average for 4th down and 1, but it has to be higher than 60%. But again for simplicity sake lets say it's 60%... If you choose to go for it on 4th and 1 at the goalline, you get an average of ~7*0.6=~4.2 points over large samples. This means you will be losing over 1 point every time you decide to kick a field goal in over going for it. The decision to go for it is a no-brainer... this is especially true when you have an exceptional situational QB like Luck and good playcaller like Reich... In this case we lost and didn't convert... but you have to trust that over the long haul you will win this calculation. Control what you can control. Make the right decision! You won't always get the best result, but you will get the best results in the long-term.
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    120 Million In Cap Space

    I hated how they were using him in the few games I watched. They were making him catch passes all around the LOS... tons of screens and comeback and flat routes that required him to run after the catch and make people miss and/or trample on people to get to the first down. Now he can do it(in college), but I thought there was better use of his talents elsewhere. He's got great hands and is very good in contested catch situations and if you've read my rant the other day about contested catches, if that's your best attribute you will be in a world of trouble in the NFL. I don't think he creates enough separation to thrive as a no. 1 receiver and I'm not sure how quick he is. He probably will score well on the explosiveness metrics. I will have to see how he tests, but right now I have several receivers ahead of him. I actually think @Superman might like him because he does make people miss and he does break tackles, which makes him dangerous weapon after the catch, which is something both him and I have been wanting Ballard to target for a while now.
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    120 Million In Cap Space

    Post a scouting report on him if you can when you see him. I'd like to hear your opinion. IMO he's the player who beats press-man at LOS the best from any receiver in the draft. He has exceptional use of hands in denying the CB's attempts to put a hand on him at the beginning of the route. He needs refinement in route running and more expansive route tree, but that's why he's probably not going top 10... Otherwise, physical profile and athletic traits are all elite.
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    120 Million In Cap Space

    I think Colts fans undervalue receiver because Luck makes underwhelming talent look serviceable most of the time. Most analytical models put VERY HIGH positional value to the position of WR. It's somewhere in the top 5(QB> WR ~= CB ~= pass-rusher(interior or edge)). I think there is something to be said about having elite talent at QB elevating your WR group, but I still would not put WR on appreciably different scale to the defensive talent(mainly pass-rushers) in the draft. Meaning... if I get a WR with slightly higher grade than a pass-rushers available I think I would have to still draft the WR...
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    120 Million In Cap Space

    Why? He might be BPA?