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shasta519 last won the day on February 27 2019

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  1. And somehow it's only #26 based on projected win totals for 2021. Better bank those AFCS wins. If they have to more than 6 wins against that non-division schedule, that could prove difficult. I could see anywhere from 7-12 wins this upcoming season, which would up my median at 9.5 wins.
  2. Reich's JB playbook probably does fit on a hand.
  3. Yeah...they didn’t give up that pick...they used it. Like the Colts did with their pick when they took Paye. Nobody says they gave up a 1st round pick for Paye. You only hear 1st round picks as being “given up” when there are big trade ups. Seems like it’s done for sensationalistic purposes.
  4. Yep. And one of those variants happened last season...the other FOUR seasons ago. Interestingly, another player with similar variance is his former teammate, Nick Foles. Wentz is a better QB, with more experience, but both had great seasons at age 24-25...followed by up and down play. And while Foles put it all together for a couple of stretches during his prime, he was still that same player with huge variance. Like you said...it’s just unknown territory with a guy like Wentz. Nothing wrong with being optimistic and nothing with being unsure.
  5. But Luck’s career stats are bogged down by his rookie season (which passer rating hated) and a season in which he actually was hurt. Luck’s performance from age 27 (his season before he would play with Reich) was much better than Wentz’s age 28 season (his season before he will play here). Luck was ascending...Wentz fell fast. And Luck was on a pretty poor Colts roster with a bad OL in 2016. Wentz played awful in a not too dissimilar situation. Good, let alone great, QBs don’t just bomb their early prime seasons like Wentz did. A bounce back season (from
  6. Yeah...Wentz would have to be hurt to not be playing. How could you spin benching Wentz to save your 1st round pick...not only to your fans but the locker room as well? Not only does it show that you made a big mistake, but it also shows you care more about draft picks than a vet QB...or about putting the team in the best position to win. The optics on that are terrible. And if they wouldn't bench JB in the back half of the 2019 season...they aren't benching a more accomplished QB...especially for a guy like Eason or Ehlinger. I think the only way they move on from him
  7. I think those are numbers from the sportsbooks. W/L totals are typically conservative on the high end and the low end. Very hard to predict an NFL team winning 13+ games...and even more difficult to predict a team winning 4 or less. I could definitely see JAC scraping together a 7-10 record...maybe even 8-9. They have a new HC, a franchise QB prospect and a pretty strong group of playmakers on offense. The latest number I saw for HOU was 3.5 though. But even with their turmoil, it's tough to bet on a team going 3-14 or worse over the course of a season.
  8. - Getting average play from Wentz is a fair assumption, but he has not been a top 3-8 QB in all of his other seasons but last year. He has only been a top 3-8 QB once in his career...2017. Setting aside his rookie season, he was top 10-12 (2018), top 15-20 (2019) and then last year. - Wentz is definitely more dynamic than Rivers, but we can't assume average play from Wentz will be an improvement over Rivers...because Rivers was a pretty damn good passer last season. He finished #8 in EPA/play and #12 in DVOA...much better than 2019 Wentz. - Not to call out Blackmon, bu
  9. Some LTs age gracefully...like Jason Peters and Andrew Whitworth. I think they would have gladly kept AC for a couple more seasons if he was up for it.
  10. Yeah...this is just the defense we are talking about. The offense has to be much better by default if they want to play late in January.
  11. Yeah...I am not really concerned about them RTP...I was just basing it off that study that CBFL posted. The post-operative performance and rehab time is much more important to me.
  12. Scheme...and stubbornness to stick with it. I don't have an axe to grind with the coaching staff, but this is my observation: I think the current defensive scheme works extremely well against bad teams with bad OLs and QBs. The Colts are able to get pressure with their front 4 and can sit back in zone and make plays on the ball. And then they get a good lead and are able to do this even more. These games lift the overall stats for the season...and it's what many people tend to remember. But it's an incomplete view of the defense. Because as the schedule gets tougher, te
  13. That's a good point. Horizontal athleticism seems to impacted less than vertical athleticism...which is why it's a really bad injury for NBA players. However, vertical athleticism helps burst. Losing your initial burst for an OL player would not be good...but I think it would be much worse for a DL player (or a RB).
  14. Not to be pessimistic...but if worst comes to worst...then I think Reich would be the sacrificial lamb. Ballard doesn't make autocratic decisions...he values and uses input from his staff and his coaches (especially his HC). If the GM trusts a few recommendations from the HC and they backfire...trust is lost. And at that point, I think Ballard/Irsay would look to bring in a new voice. However, I don't think that is going to happen. But the Wentz call might loom large enough on its own.
  15. Some combo of scheme and overall talent? DeFo and Leonard are great players. DeFo is a monster and makes the defense better, but he's not Aaron Donald. And Leonard is a playmaker and tackle machine, but also regressed in pass coverage last season. But SEA (Adams and Wagner) and KC (Jones and Mathieu) also had (2) All-Pros on their defenses...and they finished #16 and #22 respectively (DVOA). Two players can't do it alone together (or something like that). I think another part is the pass rush. The DL (DeFo included) got their production in bunches in a hand
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