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Colts trade out of first round

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7 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Don’t be surprised if we really do trade that 34th and end up with 5 seconds tomorrow.

We had 3 2nd Rd picks last year and i believe he traded down with one of them to acqure extra mid round picks or pick. Wouldnt be shocked to see him do that again.

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4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I thought as much. If Ballard wanted him, he would of got him. Oh well.

Yeah as he was falling I was thinking I bet he’s off teams boards because of the heart condition.  I think he was off the Colts too.

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14 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

On the bright side, we get to see more Reggie Wayne tomorrow night with three picks to announce!

 

:scoregood:

Good point.  Chris!!, please don't trade Reggie's picks away !!!!!

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Just now, krunk said:

We had 3 2nd Rd picks last year and i believe he traded down with one of them to acqure extra mid round picks or pick. Wouldnt be shocked to see him do that again.

The Colts actually traded back into round two last year and ended up with four 2nd round picks 

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29 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Don't b surprised if he moves back from 34.  The top of the 2nd is usually pretty active

I dont think he trades that one. He could and would be wise to if its just a couple spots while fleecing for more picks. Although i think he positioned himself at the top of Rd 2 for a reason. Lot of good players coming down that pipe.

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35 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

He won’t trade back down. Second round is the sweet spot.

It’s possible he could trade down a few spots and grab another 2nd next year or just stay put. Always disappointing not be be able to open any new gifts on Christmas Day though :Cry: I still trust 100% in CB. 

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27 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

Its dumb until proven otherwise all I can say is he better hit on those second rounders.

Yeah because we all know Ballard is on the hot seat ....oh wait...

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3 minutes ago, krunk said:

We had 3 2nd Rd picks last year and i believe he traded down with one of them to acqure extra mid round picks or pick. Wouldnt be shocked to see him do that again.

yea, that 34 is going to be sought after. it might be one of those deals where we only lose two spots, maybe 3 downward... he might have a limit, like he won't do it unless it's, at most, 3 slots downward in this particular draft due to lots of talent still available in 2nd round.  if he thinks less highly of the available talent, he could go down farther but i doubt it.

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1 minute ago, Jdubu said:

It’s possible he could trade down a few spots and grab another 2nd next year or just stay put. Always disappointing not be be able to open any new gifts on Christmas Day though :Cry: I still trust 100% in CB. 

 

Yeah it would have been nice to have a new Colt tonight.

 

And I would have been happy with Tillery, Sweat, or even Abram.

 

But what do I know?  Nothing.  Just like Jon Snow.  haha  I trust Ballard, especially in the 2nd round.  :thmup:

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Tough to accurately evaluate until all the picks shake out and we see how the players that are actually involved end up performing, obviously.  

 

In a world of instant gratification, though, it comes off as a downer, BUT if the 2nd rounder next year ends up being a top 5 or even top 10 in the round, based purely on picks, I think the trade is a win!   Especially if you accept the notion put out there that there is VERY little separating the talent available from pick 26ish to 50ish.  IF you accept that premise, you get a roughly equal talent this year AND you pick up a potential premium talent next year! 

 

The concept of replenishing talent year over year over year = smart!

 

Still, a bit of a drag for this year, for us “fans”, though.  But a nice boon for us fans next year.  Gotta hit on the picks, though, that is the important thing.  

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6 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Yeah because we all know Ballard is on the hot seat ....oh wait...

Yeah bring back the guy that signed all the big name free agents and was willing to deal his first round pick for a running back or who can forget drafting that stud end Werner or WR Dorrsett in the first round!  Why on earth did we ever fire him for Ballard in the first place!...(checks the teams records.) ok I am good with the Ballard guy.

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10 minutes ago, krunk said:

I dont think he trades that one. He could and would be wise to if its just a couple spots while fleecing for more picks. Although i think he positioned himself at the top of Rd 2 for a reason. Lot of good players coming down that pipe.

Yeah... it's even possible one of the 8 he loved at 26 is still there... 

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1 hour ago, TomDiggs said:

As a few ppl mentioned, that Skins future 2nd is going to be a premium pick.

 

If they start Haskins all year, the kid is going to take his lumps and they will not finish the year very high. And if Haskins doesn't start right away it's Keenum or Colt McCoy.

 

That future 2nd is going to be a top-10ish pick in the second round next year. We will surely enjoy it then.

Haskins isn't a long-term solution at QB for the Skins --  or anyone else for that matter. They'll still stink the place up this season, and that 2nd next year will be an early pick. 

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14 minutes ago, ar7 said:

Ballard just mentioned in his press conference that he liked picking up a future 2nd.

 

You better send him this article quick. I don't know where he came up with his logic for assessing the trade value of draft picks but it must not be Pats Pulpit. He needs to understand how to properly value these future draft picks before another trade like the one made tonight is made.

 

You're wrong my friend. Ballard's trade was just at the right price. As usually most NFL trades are, if no top10, sometimes 15 pick is involved. The top15 pick's value higly fluctuates, but below that, trade are usually very closely follow charts. (I say charts, because there's at least 4-5 of them out, but most are indifferent below the top20 picks. Meaning, the numbers are different, but rates don't.)

 

In this case, the difference between the 1/26 and 2/14 is somewhere between a 2/25 to 3/5 pick depending on the particular chart. However, due to the slightly different drop rates of the different chart, the one which shows bigger difference, also values the future 2nd higher, so ultimately the result is almost the same. Do your math and you will see. It's not rocket science. The point is, that Ballard's trade was at the right price (as most trades are in this range, as I said before). 

 

(Btw, that Pats Pulprit article tells you exactly that too. There's nothing new in there.)

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

Yeah... it's even possible one of the 8 he loved at 26 is still there... 

I don’t think he “loved” any of them or that would have been the guy at 26.  I think he likes 8 guys and he knew when he traded back at 26 that one of the guys he liked would be there at 34 so he let the draft make the decision for him.  That’s what smart GMs do.  If there is still more than one there at 34 i wouldn’t be shocked to see him move back again.  

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Ballard "Yeah, here the plan, resign a bunch of our own players who were subpar, who aren't really going to get us any closer to the superBowl, but we will sign one key guy,  who was let go by his previous team, then we will keep trading down so we can have a roster full of 5,6 and 7th round players." Brilliant.

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Mr Brilliance wants Omenihu  out of Texas and Dremont Jones out of Ohio State....i think that's why he did the trade. I think McGary was a target too.

 

I think in time, after this draft is a bust as well as following drafts people will come to the rightful conclusion that Ballard is full of himself and that , like Grigson, he will be credited with one good draft only. Even blind squirrels find a nut once in awhile. I see him stocking up on a bunch of Turay and Fountain quality players this year.

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46 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Ballard loves them picks man.
 

 

 

Mike Mayock just said that before the Pats made their pick(32) he already had 2 offers for their 35 pick! What's the chance that those same have not called the Colts for 34 too? There WILL be serious interest for this pick. It's possible we get a haul for it too... 

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I’m not going to bash Ballard because obviously he knows more about these players than I do.. but man, we could of walked away with Sweat and Brown at 34. 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Mike Mayock just said that before the Pats made their pick(32) he already had 2 offers for their 35 pick! What's the chance that those same have not called the Colts for 34 too? There WILL be serious interest for this pick. It's possible we get a haul for it too... 

It’s not impossible that Ballard just straight up trades the 34th pick for a first next year and walks away from with this draft with two seconds and two firsts and two seconds in next years draft.  Then how will people feel about his trades?

3 minutes ago, TheNextGM said:

I’m not going to bash Ballard because obviously he knows more about these players than I do.. but man, we could of walked away with Sweat and Brown at 34. 

I think from the way Ballard was talking Sweat was off their board due to his heart condition.  That’s just my opinion though.

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2 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

It’s not impossible that Ballard just straight up trades the 34th pick for a first next year and walks away from with this draft with two seconds and two firsts and two seconds in next years draft.  Then how will people feel about his trades?

 

I would LOVE them. If you get a future 1st for 34, that's another gold mine. 

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7 minutes ago, Wyldhorsefan said:

Ballard "Yeah, here the plan, resign a bunch of our own players who were subpar, who aren't really going to get us any closer to the superBowl, but we will sign one key guy,  who was let go by his previous team, then we will keep trading down so we can have a roster full of 5,6 and 7th round players." Brilliant.

 

You're hilarious.  I hope you're a long-term fan and remember these posts in the future.

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yeah... it's even possible one of the 8 he loved at 26 is still there... 

 

I think he would've picked someone at 26 if there were anyone of his 8 available. He didn't, so I believe all were gone. 

 

This year's draft class was very thin at the top. Last year there were more than 40 (according to some analysts, almost 50) players with first round grade. This year there were cca. 20 of them. On the other hand, there's a tons of players with 2nd to 4th round grades. In other words, there's tons of Turays and Lewises available (still available), but only a few Leonards, Smiths, not to mention Nelsons. You don't pay $200 for a luch, if you can get the same luch for $100. Ballard traded back and will pay $100 for that lunch, that's it.

 

(I also see why he elected to take the 2020 pick instead of for example a this year's 3rd rounder. The Colts still have 9 picks, and I think, this year no more than 6, maybe 7 of them will survive the roster cuts, because this years roster is a lot deeper than before. There's depth almost everywhere. There was no point to take a 10th mid rounder pick for 2019.)

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7 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

 

Too bad they didn't ask him if one is still available NOW...  (edit: my bad, misread the quote first)

 

5 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

I think he would've picked someone at 26 if there were anyone of his 8 available. He didn't, so I believe all were gone. 

 

He said some of the cluster of 8 was available at 26... but the value of the proposed trade was too good. 

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

I would LOVE them. If you get a future 1st for 34, that's another gold mine. 

That’s normally the cost for draft picks in the draft.  You have to give up a round higher in the following year for that years pick.  If the Colts do a straight trade.  More likely would be they move back in the second round and an extra pick or two later in the draft or next year.  Still having two seconds this year means they could trade it first next year If they find a partner. 

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53 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A pick this year is always worth more than a pick next year.  So the trade is really the equivalent of picking up a third this year for moving down from 26 to 46. 

 

Pick 26 is worth 700 points and pick 46 is worth 440 points.  So we need 260 points to break even.  260 points is pick 66 this year.

 

So instead of getting pick 66 this year (second pick of the third round), we'll probably get around a mid second round pick next year.

 

Use your judgment to determine if its a good trade.

 

If you go by the point "thing" , it's not a good deal. I'm also assuming you would figure a 2020 2nd rounder to be worth the same pick in this years 3rd. Thus you would need the 2nd pick in the 2nd round of next year's draft to make up the 260 points you give up this year. So by "points" the deal is probably a loser.

 

That said you need to see Ballad's evaluation of the 20 picks following his 26th rated player. If there is not a lot of difference , it softens the blow. You also have to take into consideration how he feels about the strength of next year's draft. Add to that , his feelings how Washington will do with their 2019 QB situation.

 

What I'm thinking is by the chart , it's not a winner . But if you believe what he said about the players after the top 12 to 15 being very close in value , the deal makes a lot of sense. Thing about Ballard is he pretty much always seems to tell the truth ?

 

Oh....it is also a negative that a first rounder has a little extra value because of the 5th year option. 

 

If anyone cares and I doubt they do . I'm OK with the deal because I trust Ballard's judgement. 

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3 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

You're hilarious.  I hope you're a long-term fan and remember these posts in the future.

Yep, been following since 1995, I'm sure I'll regret it later but that's just how I feel now.

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Too bad they didn't ask him if one is still available NOW... 

That’s what the first part of that quote is saying.  Some of those guys are still there.  How many?  We will never know.  It could be all 8, it could be just two or anywhere in between.

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Just now, Peterk2011 said:

I think he would've picked someone at 26 if there were anyone of his 8 available. He didn't, so I believe all were gone.

 

It could also be the opposite:  that enough of them were still left that he figured one of them would drop to 34 and he could pick up an extra 2nd for next year while still landing one of his original 8.  Especially if a few of those 8 were WRs that are still on the board.

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1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

That’s what the first part of that quote is saying.  Some of those guys are still there.  How many?  We will never know.  It could be all 8, it could be just two or anywhere in between.

Oh, thanks for pointing it out. I misread the quote. 

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5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Too bad they didn't ask him if one is still available NOW... 

He said some of the cluster of 8 was available at 26... but the value of the proposed trade was too good. 

 

He actually said some were "still available"... no ?

 

Sorry this was posted about 12 times as I was writing mine.

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1 minute ago, dw49 said:

 

He actually said some were "still available"... no ?

Yeah, I misread the quote. My bad. 

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5 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

I think he would've picked someone at 26 if there were anyone of his 8 available. He didn't, so I believe all were gone. 

 

This year's draft class was very thin at the top. Last year there were more than 40 (according to some analysts, almost 50) players with first round grade. This year there were cca. 20 of them. On the other hand, there's a tons of players with 2nd to 4th round grades. In other words, there's tons of Turays and Lewises available (still available), but only a few Leonards, Smiths, not to mention Nelsons. You don't pay $200 for a luch, if you can get the same luch for $100. Ballard traded back and will pay $100 for that lunch, that's it.

 

(I also see why he elected to take the 2020 pick instead of for example a this year's 3rd rounder. The Colts still have 9 picks, and I think, this year no more than 6, maybe 7 of them will survive the roster cuts, because this years roster is a lot deeper than before. There's depth almost everywhere. There was no point to take a 10th mid rounder pick for 2019.)

Well Ballard said the opposite in his presser and said some of the 8 are still there.  Could that be a smoke screen?  Sure.  However, he wouldn’t be the first GM to trade back if there were multiple guys still there that he liked knowing he could still get one of them and add an extra pick.

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11 minutes ago, TheNextGM said:

I’m not going to bash Ballard because obviously he knows more about these players than I do.. but man, we could of walked away with Sweat and Brown at 34. 

I trust him but i wont lie. I really liked the idea of Sweat and Turay behind Houston and Sheard. Water under the Bridge now......

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3 minutes ago, stitches said:

Oh, thanks for pointing it out. I misread the quote. 

It’s all good.  It happens to all of us.

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Too bad they didn't ask him if one is still available NOW... 

He said some of the cluster of 8 was available at 26... but the value of the proposed trade was too good. 

 

Yeah I read that. Well, I guess if a value of a 2020 2nd round was higher than the chance to pick a guy from that 8, then that cluster barely had a 1st round graded player. I myself had a hard time finding anyone worth a 1st round grade after cca. the 18th pick. All of those who were remaining had issues. Like Taylor for example, probably because of the knee. Metcalf, because of the high risk, etc. These are no better options than a 2-3 dozen others, who are still available.

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Just now, Peterk2011 said:

 

Yeah I read that. Well, I guess if a value of a 2020 2nd round was higher than the chance to pick a guy from that 8, then that cluster barely had a 1st round graded player. I myself had a hard time finding anyone worth a 1st round grade after cca. the 18th pick. All of those who were remaining had issues. Like Taylor for example, probably because of the knee. Metcalf, because of the high risk, etc. These are no better options than a 2-3 dozen others, who are still available.

Seems like he said that not only was one of the 8 available at 26, but he's still available NOW! WOW! 

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2 hours ago, MarquisJ said:

Love the move stack the picks the value in players just wasn’t there for us at 26 couldn’t agree more honestly.. Not to mention the Colts “guy” they probably had their eyes on can be drafted day two so potentially you end up with the guy you already wanted plus another 2nd & 2nd next year i’ll take it.

Whether true or not...I would expect that to be the way Ballard spins it.  Who could prove him wrong?  He can tell us anything...we’ll never know the truth. 

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