Offensive line experiment

[HungarianColtsFan]

I know it is only ProFootballFocus, still it can add some fire extinguisher to this debate...or more fuel...

 

A.Q. Shipley vs. His Predecessor

                            Player PFF Grade         PFF Pass Pro. Grade     PFF Run Block Grade      Total Snaps

2012 Shipley              +7.9                                      +2.1                              +5.1                              474

2012 Satele                -5.7                                      -10.1                             +4.7                              642

2014 Shipley              +5.9                                       +2.2                             +3.7                              340

2014 Harrison            -12.5                                       -8.8                              -1.0                              591

 

Pro Football Focus

Edited December 8, 2014 by HungarianColtsFan

[AntonMcG]

Harrison should've been benched. Never should've took the field this year anyway

Shipley at C...... Why? Cause it just WORKS

 

When did you become an expert on offensive line play? You used to claim you did not understand it... have you suddenly tapped into a new analytical portion of your brain that has allowed you to be the divine word on all things o-line?

[ProblChld32]

I was surprised at how well the Line performed and Holmes looked STOUT at guard. If only the RB's were able to pass protect better then Luck wouldve had much more time. i seen Boom and Richardson Whiff on alot of blocks. But this line looks like it could actually pan out. 

[SteelCityColt]

When did you become an expert on offensive line play? You used to claim you did not understand it... have you suddenly tapped into a new analytical portion of your brain that has allowed you to be the divine word on all things o-line?

 

To be fair 95% on people on here (myself included) probably aren't qualified to assess O-Line play so crab opinion together on what we're told from various sources (PFF, Media Articles) and the completey unbiased "eye test" . 

 

That's why I tend to lean with giving the professional coaches the benefit of the doubt. 

[krunk]

I don't know.  I'm still of the opinion that Holmes really aught to be the starter at Center.

If Xa Nixon is healthy this week he should be the right guard. If he's not healthy then there's

really nothing left except for Shipley at Center and Holmes at guard.

 

I guess the coaches have concluded that Lance Louis is trash because he's not even

playing anymore.

[Old Colt]

I thought Holmes played well at RG, and how awesome is it Pagano finally realized Harrison is terrible and benched him???

Terrible or not, Harrison was not benched; he had a neck issue, likely a stinger and left because of that.  Colts are very sensative, as they should be, to potential neck issue.  he was not benched.

[hoosierhawk]

it amazes me how dumb our coaches are to not listen to the knowledgeable fans on this board but arrogantly rely on their uneducated observations at the practices. This must change!!

[CoachLite]

Yeah, but lets just continue to blame Trent for the troubles of running the football.  Most people would agree, and it's much easier to point the finger at one guy than trying to look who blew their block on any specific play!

Speaking of blowing their blocks, did T. Richardson suffer a bad case of wind-burn on that blitz?

[Colts_Fan12]

Ok, so let me get this right.... you are done with all the praise for Shipley but you are sick of the "Trent Sucks" talk.... this statement just totally invalidated anything you have ever posted. Please tell me you forgot to use your "sarcasm" font on this...

No I'm not gonna rip anyone on this team none stop like people do Trent it's annoying he's on the colts and I want him to succeed. The Shipley praise is different everyone for some reason thinks he is leaps and bounds ahead of Harrison when it's just not true

[throwing BBZ]

Yeah I agree. He was definitely benched.

 Guess you missed the trainers working on his hand.  No way they bench him if healthy, sorry you don`t get it.

[throwing BBZ]

They pretty much only played together in the fourth.. That sack on the last drive was on Boom Herron. Luck had most of his big plays when those two were playing together..

 

 You got it Sup.

 Holmes was a blanket on his man. Stubby was solid too.

 

[throwing BBZ]

To be fair 95% on people on here (myself included) probably aren't qualified to assess O-Line play so crab opinion together on what we're told from various sources (PFF, Media Articles) and the completey unbiased "eye test" . 

 

That's why I tend to lean with giving the professional coaches the benefit of the doubt. 

 

 Based on the last 3 seasons, i`m pretty sure our GM and the O-Line coaches just don`t have it regarding the line.

[Carlos Danger]

I think that Harrison was legitimately hurt. I was listening on the radio and they came back really quickly with the info that he wouldn't return to the game with a burner...

It seems like our interior line is full of good backups with no real studs (Mewhort aside) yet. Holmes was encouraging at RG and AQ is far superior to Harrison in pass protection. I really hope that Reitz can get back to form because he is a good guard and provides good depth.

The injuries hurt, but personnel-wise I really like the O-lineman we already have. The only real issue outside of RT is that it takes young guys a while to develop.

Fix RT and we could already have the talent on the team to be one of the best and deepest lines in football... Harrison's development will be an important part of that..

[YOUR GM]

The play calling was absolutely horrible on offense yesterday. Missed blocks and poor line calls are one thing, but Pep made matters worse with his pass happy gameplan. Our run game is horrible because he can't seem to formulate a gameplan to have one aspect of offense compliment the other. It's either back-to-back runs on first down out of condensed sets or it's a run for positive yardage followed by a pass without the use of play action. Probably the most predictable game I've seen us call this year. Reminded me a lot of last season in reverse

[fvantagio]

Really? Ok, how about these stats

 

In the first four weeks of the season, when Shipley was at C, Luck was sacked a TOTAL of five times, including two games (Eagles and Jaguars) where Luck was not sacked at all. With Shipley in the Line- 1.25 sacks per game.

In week 5 against Baltimore Shipley was benched and Harrison started at C. Luck was sacked FOUR times in that one game.

Week 6 against Houston- Three Sacks

Week 7 Pitt- Two Sacks

Week 8 NYG- One Sack Totaling Harrison's first four games, Luck gets sacked 2.5 times per game with Harrison in the lineup.

 

Taking the first four games each guy played in the starting lineup, Shipley (1.25) and Harrison (2.5), Luck gets sacked twice as often when Harrison is in the lineup versus Shipley.

 

To be fair to Harrison's cause- the Offensive line did not give up a single sack to the Patriots, but gave up five to the Jaguars (Shipley's line gave up zero to that team) and one to the redskins, which does bring Harrison's offensive line's sack per game stat to 2.29 sacks per game. Still roughly 1.8(ish) times the sacks that a line led by Shipley gives up.

 

I am not sure how the 3 sacks in todays game are divided between a lineup with Shipley or Harrison, so I cannot attribute those to either player accurately. 

 

Let's look at Luck's fumbles per game when Shipley and Harrison are in the starting lineup.

 

Shipley

Week 1- 0

Week 2- 0

Week 3- 0

Week 4- 0

 

Harrison

Week 5- 1 (0 lost)

Week 6- 1 (1 lost)

Week 7- 1 (1 lost)

Week 8- 1 (0 lost)

 

Now, we'll look at the numbers through each of their first four games- With Shipley in the offensive line, Luck fumbled zero times. With Harrison in the offensive line, Luck fumbled four times, once per game- losing half of them.

 

Harrison's last four weeks weeks

Week 9- 2 (0 lost)

Week 10- 0

Week 11- 4 (2 lost) (Shipley's line gave up zero against the jags)

Week 12 2 (1 lost)

 

Now, I understand that both sacks and fumbles by the quarterback can't be attributed JUST to the Center, but to see a jump in sacks by almost double, and going from zero fumbles to having 12 (5 lost) when you switch out the center means that something is up.

 

What about Running yards per game and average YPC for the respective centers in the lineup?

Shipley

Week 1- 54 total rushing yards, and a 3.9 YPC 

Week 2- 169 yards and a 4.4 ypc 

Week 3- 144 yards and a 5.0 YPC

Week 4- 105 yards and a 2.6 YPC

Average 118 yards per game and a 3.974 YPC

 

Harrison

Week 5- 127 Yards and a 4.2 YPC

Week 6- 171 Yards and a 5.0 YPC

Week 7- 63 yards and a 6.3 YPC 

Week 8- 98 yards and a 4.1 YPC

Week 9- 19 yards and a 1.2 YPC (Ouch)

Average 95.6 Yards per game and a 4.16 YPC

 

These above are only the games where Bradshaw and Trent were both in the game, but it does also include all of the misc rushing yards (Luck, end arounds etc.) 

 

So in regards to the rushing game, it's really a push between Harrison's O-Line (~6.5 inches more per rush) and Shipley's O-Line (~20 more yards per game rushing)

 

So you don't change much in the rushing game between Harrison or Shipley, but the stats show that Luck gets sacked less and fumbles less when Shipley is in the lineup versus Harrison.

 

What are you angry about again?

Nice stats. Can you show me some screen shots of this 1 man Oline your referring to? Or are you just completely writing off any and all possible impact of the other 4 linemen? Most importantly the 2 interior guards. There are much more variables then whose running the football. Which was the only one you actually held constant. You are resting your argument on 20% of the total line, as well as ignoring countless other variables that could factor into the argument... do you really expect me to take those stats seriously? Better question..do you really take those stats seriously?

[Dark Superman]

You got it Sup.

 Holmes was a blanket on his man. Stubby was solid too.

Why can't Pagano see this?

[RockThatBlue]

Love how everyone states he is "clearly" better when in reality it isn't by much at all the run still is terrible and when opposing Ds blow though Shipley like Kruger did today luck will still be pressured and sacked

Even if not by much he's still better until Harrison steps up, or we bring in someone next year. Shipley should be the man at least until the end of this year.

[Jason_]

The play calling was absolutely horrible on offense yesterday. Missed blocks and poor line calls are one thing, but Pep made matters worse with his pass happy gameplan. Our run game is horrible because he can't seem to formulate a gameplan to have one aspect of offense compliment the other. It's either back-to-back runs on first down out of condensed sets or it's a run for positive yardage followed by a pass without the use of play action. Probably the most predictable game I've seen us call this year. Reminded me a lot of last season in reverse

 

I wasn't happy with the playcalling yesterday either, but I can't put it squarely on Pep.  Luck has a lot of control at the LOS now so there's no telling how many of the playcalls were his decision and not Pep's.  

[lollygagger8]

Really good breakdown of the Colts line for the Redskins game: 

 

http://coltsacademy.com/?p=3161

[Narcosys]

http://espn.go.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/9460/a-look-at-offensive-production-with-a-q-shipley-at-center-vs-cleveland?ex_cid=espnapi_public

 

Harrison vs Shipley breakdown

[ztboiler]

http://espn.go.com/blog/indianapolis-colts/post/_/id/9460/a-look-at-offensive-production-with-a-q-shipley-at-center-vs-cleveland?ex_cid=espnapi_public

 

Harrison vs Shipley breakdown

There is nothing dishonest about those stats.  But to draw conclusions about the performance of the center position from those stats is intellectually dishonest.

[Superman]

There is nothing dishonest about those stats. But to draw conclusions about the performance of the center position from those stats is intellectually dishonest.

Either that, or betraying a lack of understanding about how to evaluate offensive linemen.

[ztboiler]

Either that, or betraying a lack of understanding about how to evaluate offensive linemen.

As likeable as Mike Wells is, he comes across as either having an agenda or struggling to make the transition to the NFL beat when he does something like this.  Unfortunately, I think its both in this case.

 

Given that Wells is the one who poked Pagano yesterday again about Shipley/Harrison, its safe to say he is using this to justify his agenda.  I'd find that more palatable if he had a column rather than a beat.

[Superman]

As likeable as Mike Wells is, he comes across as either having an agenda or struggling to make the transition to the NFL beat when he does something like this. Unfortunately, I think its both in this case.

Given that Wells is the one who poked Pagano yesterday again about Shipley/Harrison, its safe to say he is using this to justify his agenda. I'd find that more palatable if he had a column rather than a beat.

I wouldn't find it any more palatable, because I find it annoying when columnists do it, too. I mentioned that in another thread. They ask the same questions a dozen times, then when the coach gets short, they make it seem like he's being a jerk. Just like the"because he's our starting RB" thing last week. Can't stand it.

And particularly Wells, of whom I'm not a fan. I don't think he gets the game, and I don't think he's a good beat man, and I don't think hes a good journalist/reporter, and I don't think he's a good writer. I know he doesn't have an easy job, but he clearly struggles with it. I much prefer Stephen Holder and the others, but they are stuck on Shipley-Harrison and Richardson also. It's really old...

[ztboiler]

I wouldn't find it any more palatable, because I find it annoying when columnists do it, too. I mentioned that in another thread. They ask the same questions a dozen times, then when the coach gets short, they make it seem like he's being a jerk. Just like the"because he's our starting RB" thing last week. Can't stand it.

And particularly Wells, of whom I'm not a fan. I don't think he gets the game, and I don't think he's a good beat man, and I don't think hes a good journalist/reporter, and I don't think he's a good writer. I know he doesn't have an easy job, but he clearly struggles with it. I much prefer Stephen Holder and the others, but they are stuck on Shipley-Harrison and Richardson also. It's really old...

Insight always has been... and always will be a rare commodity.

[Malakai432]

oh yes and Shipley getting smashed and literally not stopping players like Kruger from killing luck right from the snap is better?? Get out of here

You over exaggerate to much

Technically he still blocked Kruger, lol.....

[Colts_Fan12]

Technically he still blocked Kruger, lol.....

Watt is going to murder him.....

[Gavin]

Sad when a fan sitting behind a keyboard knows that's not how to evaluate the performance but a reporter for the team don't. This article would help him out http://mmqb.si.com/2014/03/06/nfl-offensive-linemen-grades/

[Malakai432]

Watt is going to murder him.....

 

Technically, murder is a little bit overuse of the term.  That being said I do agree.

 

[Gavin]

I do have one question regarding the total number of blocks of our O Linemen this year to date......Why do those numbers not add up to Football Outsiders Offensive snaps for our O Linemen? http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts

 

Maybe FO is counting penalties and snaps labeled as "No Play"?

[Gavin]

On a side note I came away real impressed by Holmes play at RG after Reitz went down, His athleticism showed on a Pull Blocks he did and he can get up to the second level with ease and show some patience instead of lunging, He also showed ability to turn his hips and turn his man and create a hole but unfortunately the run did not go behind him. He picked up his feet and moved really well , I hope Reitz is alright but I hope to see more of Holmes at RG if Reitz cant go....

 

Perhaps Reitz at LG and Holmes at RG while putting Mewhort at RT in the future?  It would mean more mobility among the O Line and that we could Pull either Guard easy, Then again Mewhort has played overall pretty well at LG...Yes I prefer athleticism and mobility in my Guards over the big strong slow unathletic O Linemen, I believe it can aid in make your offense being able to do more things, especially in the run game

[drums1st]

Thou Holmes has a small sample size, his grades are consistantly good. I think you have to continue to let the man play to see what you have. 

Shipley is a better pass blocker than Harrison & the Colts are 60-65% passing team. Play Shipley. 

 

It looks like Mewhort may be a good player. I think next year he goes back to tackle where he made his name in college. His skills seem better suited to tackle from what i've read from scouts.

Mewhort may be able to move Cherilus to a backup roll next season.  

 

For me the Colts have to get a good vet FA guard/center to add into the mix for next season. 

Lewis hasn't played well at all & appears to still be around for injury insurance. 

 

Keep Harrison (who may be a better guard eventually), Shipley, Mewhort, Thornton, Reitz, Nixon,

Castonzo, Cherilus & add a proven vet G/C. 

 

At some point if problems persist, you'll have to question the OL coaching as well. 

I'd guess he's not really interested, but I'd think Jeff Saturaday would be a good OL coach. 

 

Peace

 

[cbear]

There is nothing dishonest about those stats.  But to draw conclusions about the performance of the center position from those stats is intellectually dishonest.

 

Indeed.  This is what I like least about these modern day "blogger/reporter" types that have replaced true journalists.  

[krunk]

According to Colts.com the word is Holmes may be "the guy" at guard this week.

[RockThatBlue]

Article about Hugh Thornton here. Thought this thread was the best place to post it. Thoughts?

profootballspot.com/_/nfl/afc-south/indianapolis-colts/is-it-too-early-for-colts-to-give-up-on-hugh-thornton-r5445

[OLD FAN MAN]

is it lack of talent, wrong players playing, players in wrong position, wrong blocking system, or bad coaching? why is our o-line so bad again this year?

[pgt_rob]

I find it annoying that every week the oline is drastically changed. I know injuries happen but the whole Khaled Holmes and Shipley conspiracy burns me out reading about it all the time. I just wish we stuck to guys that play well. Must be some off the field issues that make them disappear from playing games.

[RockThatBlue]

I find it annoying that every week the oline is drastically changed. I know injuries happen but the whole Khaled Holmes and Shipley conspiracy burns me out reading about it all the time. I just wish we stuck to guys that play well. Must be some off the field issues that make them disappear from playing games.

I don't know what's up with it either but yes its odd.

[dudeski]

When did you become an expert on offensive line play? You used to claim you did not understand it... have you suddenly tapped into a new analytical portion of your brain that has allowed you to be the divine word on all things o-line?

he admitted he rarely watches games. How he has an opinion on anything is beyond me

[NewColtsFan]

Sad when a fan sitting behind a keyboard knows that's not how to evaluate the performance but a reporter for the team don't. This article would help him out http://mmqb.si.com/2014/03/06/nfl-offensive-linemen-grades/

 

I seriously doubt there are more than a handful of fans here that know how to grade OL performance,  if that many.

 

I think I have a good eye for judging some level of success, but I don't pretend to know how to grade.  

 

I know when I'm seeing zone blocking or man blocking.   But without knowing the requirements of the play,  I don't think I know how to grade a player's performance.

 

I'd guess roughly 98-99 percent of the fans here don't know how to grade an OL performance.   And my figure may be too low.