Superman

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Superman last won the day on March 19

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  1. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    Fundamental difference. I would not. If I need a LT, I'm finding a way to fill that need to a serviceable degree, and I'm drafting the more highly graded player, assuming there's a substantial difference in my grades for the two players.
  2. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    They aren't. That's a gross oversimplification. Ballard has stated he wants to go to draft day with a board of around 175 players. There are 254 picks in this year's draft. That means at least 79 players drafted this year won't be on Ballard's board. You can see already where some of the deviation will come, from one team to the next. Some will be removed due to character, some due to scheme fit, some due to injury, etc. Ballard might believe that there's no value in drafting specialists, so kickers and punters aren't on his board, ever. Etc. So, while the staff will scout several hundred players prior to the draft, they'll whittle their board of draftable players down to ~175, and they'll work from that board. A separate board (or boards) will help them establish every player in the draft to maintain an idea of overall value, and a feel for where other players will be drafted. They won't do a lot of work on Kyler Murray, and he won't be on their draft day board because the value of drafting another QB doesn't make sense, but they'll have a good idea of where he ranks for the rest of the league. This would be useful in trade situations (up or down), and for having an idea of what players might be drafted before their next pick. It won't be exact, but it will help them keep track of highly graded players that aren't on their draft board. As it pertains to scheme fit, a team that runs a zone blocking scheme will probably dramatically downgrade a blocker who is big and powerful but has limited movement ability. A power blocking team might have that player in their top 15, while the zone team has him down in the 50s, or maybe even off their board entirely. Same for a press man coverage team, grading and ranking a corner that struggles with man technique but excels in zone. A 1-gap defense, and a DL who doesn't get penetration; a defense predicated on speed, with a LB who doesn't run well, etc. The Rams might have a first round grade on Brian Burns, whereas the Chiefs don't have him on their board because he doesn't fit their defense (extreme example, but just to illustrate the point). I mean, you can shoehorn the word "need" in, if you want -- our team doesn't need players who don't fit our scheme -- but that's not the kind of need we're talking about.
  3. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    I'm more concerned with the grade of the players we're talking about, vs their numerical ranking on my board. For instance, if I come up with a numerical grading system between 1 and 10 that takes my scheme and values into consideration, it's conceivable that I have a grouping of players very close to each other. In that situation, my #18 player might have a 7.5 grade, and my #37 player has a 7.2 grade, and depending on the board and the range of players from top to bottom, I can justify going with the #37 player at a position of greater need. Although, that's a pretty big range, 18 to 37. I think 18 to 28 would be more likely... And let's say I do have a big grouping of similarly graded players, and no one is screaming at me near the top of that group, I would probably be looking to trade down 10-12 spots, if possible, and I'd still get a player from that grouping. Maybe even the player at the position of need. The thing about it is I think of the draft as a way to add good players that my staff can develop, not my primary way of addressing needs and roster holes. I think Ballard leaned toward need more than I like in last year's draft, but to be honest, with our roster issues, it would have been hard not to draft a player who fit a roster hole, at almost any position. And I still think that virtually every position on the roster can stand to be upgraded right now, so whoever we draft will be addressing a perceived need. Even TE, given Doyle's surgery and the fact that he's almost 30 and will be a FA after this season.
  4. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    I feel like that's a rationalization, not an analysis. The Bears might have 3 man corners and two stand-up pass rushers on their board in the late teens / twenties that are either not on the Colts board due to scheme fit or lower on the Colts board due to value. Same for power blocking OL vs zone blocking, etc. I don't think it's remotely far-fetched that my 18th graded player is still there at #26, with a substantial gap between that player and the highest graded player at a position of greater perceived need. As for the meaning of substantial, of course that's open for interpretation, just like "several" would be. But I think we know what we're saying. We could quantify it if we had a legitimate grading system and draft board to use as an example, as opposed to just talking in hypotheticals. That's not need, that's value and scheme fit. Semantics, but I don't think "need" accurately describes what you're talking about. I also think that takes us back to the overly literal interpretation of BPA as it relates to draft strategy.
  5. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    On my hypothetical board, if there's a substantial difference between the two, I take the higher graded player 10 times out of 10, regardless of need. To the bolded, you're assuming everyone's board matches perfectly. You might have a different top 25 than me, another team might be less disciplined in sticking to their board, another team might really want a QB, etc. It's conceivable that my 15th ranked player is still on the board at #26, while my 20th-25th ranked players are taken. So there could be a substantial difference between the player at a position of perceived need and the highest rated player on my board.
  6. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    I think you're applying an overly literal interpretation of BPA, especially as it relates to a broad draft strategy. Once my board is set, if I feel there's a substantial difference between Hockenson and Tillery, I'm not going to pass on Hockenson to draft Tillery because I think DT is a greater perceived need. I want the better player, if there's a substantial difference based on my board. "Stick to your board. Don't reach for need." If I feel like I have to come out of this draft with a DT because it's such a drastic need and I can't realistically fill it with someone on my roster or in FA, then I'm identifying the DT that I think will address that need in the draft, I'm getting a good idea of where I think he'll go in the draft, and if he's out of my range, I'm going to trade up for him. But if I identify that player, and he's the 30th player on my board, and there are still players with substantially higher grades at other positions, including positions of lesser perceived need, I'm not passing on those better players at #26. I'll take the better player, then trade up from #34 for my DT, or trade back from #26 and get more value. Ideally, I'm not relying on the draft to fill needs. I'm using the draft to add good players, I'm addressing immediate needs in FA and from my own roster, and I'm handling roster mechanics in August, not draft season. As for the "letting go of Ebron" scenario, I don't see how you get to that conclusion from what I said. More than one TE can play at the same time. And players will eventually be free agents and want more money than the team is willing to pay. I also don't have to settle for having a hole at DT for two years just because I don't draft a DT in 2019.
  7. Superman

    BPA Advocates

    That's general consensus, but I think it's flawed reasoning. Good players get on the field.
  8. Just read Cosell's write-up on Butler, he's a bigger fan than I am, specifically of his route-running and ability to separate. The physical abilities are obvious. I'm curious what he'll write on Metcalf. As for draft strategy, I feel like if Butler is still there at #34, you can get value in a trade back. Same if Campbell is there at #59, IMO. But I think the board is going to be interesting in the second round, and there will be some surprising players still there at both picks.
  9. Did you have the attachment thing like Shaquem Griffin? (Serious question, just curious.)
  10. Probably, I don't see that as a good use of resources.
  11. It also ignores the fact that Hooker isn't a free agent in line for a new contract. It also ignores the fact that two years ago, there was legitimate concern that Geathers might never be able to play again.
  12. Cosell on Hakeem Butler and Keesean Johnson:
  13. In limited viewing of Morgan, Spielman was impossible to miss.
  14. Yeah, I will. I still need to look at Damarkus Lodge also, before Matthew Gilbert comes after me in a dark alley...
  15. I saw that. Brad Wells is a troll, so I ignore everything having to do with him.