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Everything posted by Superman

  1. I don't think they necessarily do. Something about the draft that we all know but probably don't acknowledge enough is that hitting on a draft pick is partly about getting to the player first. Like Leonard. Obviously the Colts liked him a lot, and maybe they believed in his speed even though he was injured at the combine, and maybe they valued his length more than other teams, but they probably weren't the only team high on him. They just happened to have two high second round picks, so their draft capital put them in position to take him where they did. It doesn't necessarily mean they saw something in him that other teams missed. I think the way teams value specific traits and metrics can vary, based on coaching schemes and other variables, but I don't think any team has unlocked the key to finding good players more effectively than other teams. I do think some teams have better draft strategy than others, and valuing picks has something to do with that.
  2. This is a good explanation for why you need a big board with all likely to be drafted players + your own more limited board with your team's 150-170 draft targets. If you only operate from your limited board, you might be slow to recognize position-specific runs that have impacted the values and probabilities. There might be a point where five corners have come off within 20 picks, but only two of them were on your team's board. If you aren't paying attention to the flow of the draft, you might miss something. Ballard mentioned something similar to this after drafting Braden Smith. His comment was that they felt Smith was the last starting caliber OL still on the board, and the impression was that the way the draft was progressing influenced their opinion of Smith's value. Some have assumed that means they reached for Smith, but it could be that Smith was one of a group of players they were considering with that pick, and the fact that five of the previous 17 picks were OL convinced them that Smith wouldn't last. Maybe they had Turay ranked similarly to Smith, but after Davenport was drafted at #14, there were no other edge players taken. So that may have influenced their thinking about whether Turay would still be available later in the second round. And this is all just conjecture on my part. But it's about reading the flow of the draft and having a dynamic strategy as the draft unfolds.
  3. I said 20%, because I'm not a zero percent kind of person. But I think Brissett winds up a Colt for all of 2019.
  4. Yeah, I'm pretty sure they were being overly simplistic in their explanation. Because the 6th OL isn't necessarily equal to the 6th WR, so it's not necessarily a straight across comparison from position to position. There's still an overall grading system they use to stack their board. So you might have 10 players in the top tier of your ranking system, at various positions, and they're all above a certain line on your board. All but one of them might come off the board before your pick, but when you look at the board, that one player is standing out above the rest of the remaining players, and the pick kind of makes itself. All the grading and positional value has already been determined, all the team has to do is hand in the card.
  5. I went back and watched. I don't think the horizontal board they showed reflected positional value. It was just traditional positions for offense, defense and special teams.
  6. I don't remember what Ballard had to say about Moore, other than saying they liked him (which is obvious). It could be that they realized after the fact that Moore had offsetting traits, and that helped them evaluate their evaluations, but that they claimed him on waivers at the cut down is evidence that they at least had their eyes on him pre-draft. Like you said, though, whether they realized this before or after the fact, deconstructing the process to identify good prospects is critical. Especially when you're not picking in the top ten every year.
  7. It was Adam Lefkoe with Rand Getlin, former NFL Network reporter. Getlin talked about how NFL Network at times acts as a shill for the NFL with their reporting, and how Rapoport was put in position to be their main mouthpiece. Getlin says he was supposed to be Rapoport's primary competition, but the network gave Rapoport favorable treatment and credited him with stories and scoops that other people, including Getlin worked on and scored. One of things he said about the network people is that they would instruct their reporters to use verbiage that was pro-NFL / pro-owners. As an example, Getlin would report 'Player X earned a $20m contract,' and he was told to never say the player earned their contract, but to say the team gave them said contract. Getlin came across as sincere, but hardheaded and stubborn and a little full of himself. But very believable. And the idea that Rapoport is more of a company man than a reporter wasn't a new idea to me, so maybe it was a case of some confirmation bias on my part. But I've heard/read other things over the years about Rapoport, along with my own impression of his reporting, that he's not all that reputable and reliable, and tends to sensationalize at times. All JMO, from rumors and impressions.
  8. Dominik was with the Bucs from '97 to '08, and worked with Rich McKay. So if Dominik did this during his career, there's a good chance this is something they did together with Gruden during his Bucs tenure.
  9. I think they're all combined to refer to a player's length, but they are different measurements. Add in vertical leap and broad jump (two areas where Moore also excelled), and you have a good idea of a player's radius, which is a composite of length and range. It's something Moncrief had to an elite degree. But that's an example of why the film work has to be the foundation. Moncrief had an elite radius, but sometimes played with T-rex arms, so he didn't get the most out of his radius (usually; he has some highlight reel catches, even with the Colts). The video showed a clip of Moore tipping a pass at the LOS, and other deflections. His ability to close on blitzes might also be a byproduct of his radius. I'm kind of enthralled by this at the moment. Thinking about Seattle's reported criteria that any CB has to fit specific criteria (height / arm length) to be drafted by them, and comparing it with the Colts' comments on outliers, it makes me wonder if this is an area where the Colts might be ahead of other teams on. For them to claim Moore like they did is intriguing to me.
  10. BTW, both sides of this can be true. While it appears to be typical for some teams to send the scouts home and retrench to finalize the board, it could also be that Mayock and Gruden don't trust someone who has been in the room. Rapoport's initial tweet said the scouts are NOT expected to return before the draft, which may or may not be true. Speaking of Rapoport, I heard a podcast recently that shed some interesting light on how he sources and reports information. Long story short, I take what he says with a grain of salt anymore. There might be more spin than fact in some of his reports.
  11. Mayock might know that certain people in their operation are giving information to NFL Network people. Some of them might have been giving him information at this time last year. It's not uncommon for new GMs to revamp their scouting staff right after the draft. I bet that's on the way for the Raiders. So while this kind of seems bizarre, it might not necessarily indicate that they intend to kick everyone out of the draft room every year.
  12. I usually hear about wingspan with basketball players, not football players. In football it's usually arm length. The measure wingspan, but don't usually mention it unless it's exceptional. Moore is 5'9, Desir is 6'1, but Moore's wingspan is greater by a half inch.
  13. I think if you could count every player that's on at least one team's draft board, the collective total would be over 300. Remember Ryan Grigson drafting Denzelle Good from Mars Hill, and everyone in the world said "Who?" No one knew who he was. It's possible the Colts were the only team in the league who had him on their draft board. So while it's theoretically possible that by the end of the 6th round, the Colts have no players remaining on their board, I think it's unlikely. Especially once you adjust for team fits, etc.
  14. I appreciate the video's insights on outliers. Nothing revolutionary, but it was nice to hear that concept expressed and exemplified by the team, with reference to Kenny Moore. They're basically saying they would like to have all these boxes checked with regard to physical traits, but when there's a box or two that isn't checked, they look to see if something else might offset that deficiency. So even though Moore is two inches shorter than the average corner, his length/wingspan and vertical leap can offset his lack of height. This gives me confidence that the personnel guys are being thoughtful and thorough as they evaluate players. And in the case of Moore, they got a good player that other teams might have overlooked because he's not tall enough to fit their criteria.
  15. Yeah, we always hear talking heads discussing players who are rising and falling on boards, and that's probably a misnomer. What that probably means is that these people are starting to recognize that teams don't have players rated where the media thought they were rated.
  16. That was a really good visual, IMO. To reach for a lesser rated player would require a blatant disregard for the board that you've worked on for months, stacking, re-stacking, and finalizing.
  17. SMH We can argue about some of them, but the ones I crossed out are easily behind RW. Easily.
  18. I didn't say that as a shot, hope it didn't come across that way. He was just the poster that came to mind...
  19. Plenty of people who don't know how the system works. I think our guy threeflight, for example, was up in arms because Luck didn't deserve to be the highest paid player in the NFL. Never mind the fact that the market was completely reset the next year by Matthew Stafford, of all people...
  20. Yeah, they gave the Pats a pass on not having a second pass rusher, primarily because of Belichick. But that's more of an organizational issue, while I think their focus was on roster composition. I agree about the importance coaching, though. I think coaching is more important in football than any other sport, and the fact that you practice three times a week and play once (compared to other sports, like NBA, which is the opposite) underscores the importance of the coaching staff getting the team prepared and pushing the right buttons on Sundays.
  21. RW is a top five QB right now. He's criminally overrated in Seattle, but criminally underrated virtually everywhere else. He'd be in the HOF conversation if he retired right now. He's a great QB.
  22. The bar for "franchise QB" has been lowered at this point. Most times that phrase is used, it just means a player capable of starting for a playoff contender, and/or young enough that the team isn't actively looking for a replacement. Dak and Trubisky check both boxes. As a comparison, Derek Carr is better than both IMO, but there are rumors the Raiders would look at replacing him. He's old enough that he probably won't get any better, he's not quite good enough to carry a team to the playoffs (outside of 2016), and his contract is flexible enough that they could move on from him if they really wanted. Add in that the current coach/GM combo didn't draft him and they pick in the top five this year, and it makes for a hot topic, even though it's kind of ridiculous that they'd seriously consider getting rid of him at this point. I think the Cowboys and Bears have their QB box checked, for now. They have good enough QBing to go deep in the playoffs. I wouldn't call either of them true franchise QBs, but that's a different topic.
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