Superman

That's a fair point.

He's put the retirement rumors to rest, at least to my satisfaction. I wouldn't expect him to rock the boat either way, and it wouldn't change my draft strategy at all. I was just thinking out loud, especially since he commented on his contract situation the other day.

Steichen was here during the JT saga. It's not the same, but my point is Steichen doesn't solve every problem just by being in the building. I agree, it's Ballard's responsibility to find Kelly's successor, and the fact that everyone else has been re-upped except for him is probably a concern of his. You can expect that concern to multiply significantly if we draft a center early. Should we care? Maybe... if you have someone throwing off the vibes, it could be problematic, and issues like this can snowball. Not that it would stop me from drafting anyone, but they should be prepared for whatever happens next.

Let's say the Colts take Jackson Powers-Johnson in the second round, does Ryan Kelly cause trouble?

I don't think it's a non factor. It's something a team needs to consider, and determine whether his "issues" are definitely related to the diabetes, or if there's some personality stuff in there as well. I have a lot of type 1 diabetics in my life, I can tell the difference between low blood sugar and just being rude, even with the same person. Mitchell could be a diabetic and be a jerk at the same time. Not saying he is, just saying teams have to get to the bottom of it.

Do you have some reliable numbers on him? Something other than urban legend, which claims he ran 4.25... He ran a 4.38 at a private workout. No Combine, no pro day. So not in the 4.2 range.

Who feels like paring this down even further? Arm length, height, weight, etc... Theo Johnson is an example of someone who tests well, but his athleticism doesn't show up on tape all that much. I didn't watch a ton of him, but from what I did watch, I didn't see an explosive athlete.

I agree that the intention of the production is to get fans hyped and get people talking, and that obviously works. But that's a high level directive for the production in general, all of the videos they're doing. I assume that Ballard's direct input on each video is pretty limited, though. Broad strokes, sure. Final approval, definitely. They want to make sure it's compliant, and with how controlling, paranoid and risk-averse NFL GMs and coaches are, I would expect that he watches the final edit himself before it goes live. I think some editorial decisions are made with Ballard's input, maybe at his direction, like the decision to focus on members of the staff and let them show their personalities, etc. Cameras would not be allowed in the draft room without his blessing. But beyond that, I would think that the media team does the rest, within whatever parameters the decision makers have agreed to, and then the result is the media team's creation. That's obviously JMO, I don't have anymore insight than anyone else. But I think the credit for the hype and production really goes to the media team.

There aren't a lot of them to talk about. Of the handful of WR prospects in the sub 4.3 range, Henry Ruggs is probably the best player. He ran 4.27, and was doing well halfway through his second season, but we know how that ended. The best overall player in that range is Champ Bailey, who ran 4.28 back in 1999, and had a great career. Second best is Chris Johnson, who ran a 4.24, and had a strong career as well. So being fast isn't a curse, nor is it disqualifying. We already know that being fast doesn't make him a good player.

I don't know whether they would or not, but I'm just saying I don't think there's a blanket objection to drafting a smallish WR.

This is it, and that's how I saw Ballard's pushback -- he's always going to be small. So what do you do with that? Whether they were talking about Worthy or someone else, I don't think Ballard's point was that he needs to put on 10-12 pounds and he won't be able to. I think the point was you can't count on that, so judge his body as it is now. As for Worthy, he's not much smaller than Josh Downs. At a certain point, small is small. If you draft a guy like that, you need to be comfortable with his size, not betting that he's going to get bigger.

I don't think it was a troll job at all. Chris Ballard isn't producing or editing these videos. I'm sure he has some final say over them before they get published, but I doubt it was his call to end the video that way. I think he was making a sincere comment about a player during a discussion in the draft room. And for all we know it was weeks ago, and it's probably a stretch to connect it to anything he said in his presser the other day. Why it's interesting to me is that it makes me think maybe there's a player that the Colts would love to draft at #15, and rather than trading down, they'd take him if he's still there. I also don't think Ballard plays games with his pressers or other commentary. He was in a mood the other day, and toyed with the press room a little bit, but that was obvious. I think his comments about being open to trade back + having 19-21 first round grades was a signal to everyone that he's open to making a deal, but then again, he said he talks to GMs around the league anyway so there's no need to sneak in a reference. Ultimately, I think he's careful about what he says, but he's also not trying to mislead anyone. I think when he tells us what he wants to do and what's important to him, he means it, and it's generally what he winds up doing.

The 'I think there's a shot he's there at #15' comment? Yeah, you could be right. And in light of Ballard's 'we're gonna trade back' comment, that's interesting to me.

From the tone, it sounds like someone just hyping themselves up.

Maybe that's it for me. There's a pop on screen with the other guys, and I don't see it in the downfield stuff with Mitchell. That's possible, you've likely watched Worthy more than I have at this point. But some of the things I still value from a technical standpoint include being strong at the catch point, and stacking the defender when the ball is in the air, and I don't see that from him. I forgot to mention earlier, Steichen has definitely adopted the motion stuff into his offense, and that would be absolutely necessary for Worthy.

I get it. But that's basically saying 'I've stuck to my principles all this time, now I want to be reckless just this once.' That's fine, when it's acknowledged. But it's all about falling in love with one prospect. And since he's not a QB, the risk is not justified. I guess you're right, their testing and size are basically the same. But BTJ has all the explosive highlights, and Mitchell played with Quinn Ewers. That's it. He's an extreme outlier, but at least he has a physical trait to make up for it. Bryce Young's compensating trait was supposed to be his processing, but it's not a physical trait, and it's still a projection. At least with Worthy we know he can run fast. There's just one size comp, and he just got $25m/year, so it can work. And just like with Mitchell, his QB was a problem. You've projected him into Steichen's scheme, and I can't argue with your viewpoint there. I just don't see the proficiency from him, and while I'm adjusting my preferences with WRs, I still like to see some technical stuff.

Some places have him at #29, others have him at #79. I definitely feel like his stock is higher now than it was a month ago when I did this mock. Right now, the same simulator has him going early in the second round.

They wouldn't even agree to pay his full salary.

Would you do the same for Nabers? For me, it's just against my religion, so to speak. I'm really leaning hard into this belief that falling in love with a so-called generational prospect is the best way to misappropriate draft capital. It's hard for me to value an unproven player at that level, and it's hard to justify the risk when it's not a QB. I'd love to have MHJ, but that's a lot of value... If you want to give up a third or fourth rounder to move up 3-4 spots in the first, have at it. Moving that kind of capital for one guy goes against all the principles of good drafting. And none of that really matters if you're right. On Mitchell, check out what I linked the other day. You might have seen it already, he has diabetes, and that probably contributes to his moodiness. Not trying to excuse it, but it might be something that's manageable, as opposed to him just being a jerk. Teams definitely have to work through that. Mitchell is more of a five-tool prospect, where BTJ has more high end explosive traits, but not as well rounded. I like them both. BTJ is more of a mid first rounder, and Mitchell probably in the 20s (maybe later, depending on how teams see the character stuff). I like your tiers. I'm not a big fan of Worthy, I just can't get there with him. I thought you had him closer to BTJ/Mitchell. Same for Polk, I wanted to like him, but he's inconsistent catching the ball, and it seems like he can be erased from the gameplan by a bad matchup, so I see him as more of a slot. There are other guys that are slot prospects, and don't scratch the itch for a good outside/deep threat WR.

If the Broncos pass on drafting a QB because they have Zach Wilson... yikes. I don't think that influences their draft plans. I hope not.

How does that connect with Bowers?

Third option is just stay at #15 and take a WR there. Which is probably what I would do. By the way, where did you wind up on AD Mitchell? How do you stack him, Worthy, and BTJ?

Weird, I see what you see now. Maybe I was seeing a cached version earlier. I really like Thomas, so I'd like it. But now that I'm seeing it in mocks, it's obvious it won't happen.

Between that and the tackling, I eliminated him from consideration by the Colts a long time ago. Was just thinking whether BBZ sees him as the kind of guy who can fill the role he wants.