Superman

And he's coming back from an achilles...

Is that because you don't believe him? Or do you think his comments are being overblown?

That's a meaningful clarification for me. I was just getting ready to say that I get where you're coming from, because there's a lot of grasping at straws and hearing what you want to hear. For example, some people listened to Chris Ballard say he'll probably trade back, and then listened to him explain why he likes to trade back, and came away convinced that he's going to trade up. I don't get that... But I was going to say that I disagree with you because Ballard doesn't really make intentionally misleading statements, and he drops clues about his draft strategy every year, to the point that Stampede Blue runs an article before every draft trying to decipher the clues and figure out which players the Colts might draft. I'm not a fan of their work in general, but they've had a noteworthy measure of success for a few years now. They pretty much nailed the Rock Ya-Sin pick back in 2019, they got four players right last year, and four of the first five picks in 2022. Here's this year's predictions. So I think we can figure out some basic stuff by piecing together what we know about the Colts preferences and comparing that with the things Ballard has said. However, your clarification is important, because in these videos I think the Colts are very careful to avoid releasing any identifying information about prospects and teams. In this latest video, we see someone watching tape of a Michigan game, and we hear someone's voice at the same time, so maybe you'd think what's being said applies to a Michigan player. But the audio might not be synced with what we're seeing. The way they splice in the B-roll and handle the audio, they can be showing you one thing but talking about something completely different. That's not rocket science, it's not a novel concept, but it's important to keep it in mind. And it would be smart of the Colts production team to make sure they misdirect whenever they can.

Some vague comments from Ballard in his end of season presser about mixing in coverages. So, not really.

Wow. Maybe I just got used to it...

@stitches I just noticed your profile pic. It's a good one. When did that happen?

I guess media could be saying stuff that I don't hear, I should acknowledge that. I just don't think anyone sourced or serious is saying it. It doesn't seem like those opinions are based on anything reputable. I was personally concerned that the way things went with Reich and Saturday could undermine the coaching search. It doesn't seem like that happened. The Colts interviewed a ton of good candidates, and wound up getting one of the more sought after guys. They got a highly sought after GM in 2017. There was the McDaniels treachery, but I think he was just a slimeball. The Colts are not a big free agent destination, I don't think that has anything to do with Irsay. I think free agents sign with the team that offers the most money, almost all the time. We've seen the Colts attract QBs like Rivers, Ryan, etc. Even Baker Mayfield listed the Colts as a desired landing spot in 2022. Maybe there's a player here or there who's turned off by Irsay, but I don't think anything like that has ever been reported. Like you said, the players only say good things. Anyone who goes on the record says good things. Former players call on him to introduce them to the HOF. I just wanted to throw out there that despite the whispers and stuff, it doesn't seem like there's any substance to the idea that the Colts operation is negatively affected by Irsay.

I merged this since there's an ongoing discussion.

To the bolded, I don't constantly hear that. I see people say it on the Internet. It was a big thing when we were looking for a HC, how candidates would be scared off because of how the Reich/Saturday thing went, Irsay's meddling, etc. One specific theory was Sirianni would tell Steichen not to take the Colts job. We see how that went. Does Irsay's history negatively impact the team? I'd like to know if there's any examples where you think it has.

If there was any flaw with the Hooker pick, it was simply his injury history. Dude was a big time playmaker, and he showed that whenever he was healthy. Sadly, that wasn't often enough, and it undermined his career potential. There's also a common perception that FS isn't a first round position. I fully believe in positional value, but I don't agree at FS. I think it's close to a premium position when you have a playmaker. Especially when you want to play a bunch of Cover 3.

No thanks. A good starter + $12m is too much for a third round pick.

I think I'd have to, right? Third round comp pick value is above $20m/year now, so we know we're not getting that if Kelly walks in free agency. I think JPJ can play on Day 1, and we have backup quality guys in Pinter (assuming he's healthy) and French. I can use that pick (84 or 87) right now. And I'm freeing up $12m in 2024 cap, and can use a third of that to go sign my favorite free agent lineman after the draft. More likely, the very best we could get for Kelly would be a late 5th, in which case I don't feel compelled to accept.

I doubt it. I'm not against it, but it's not likely, IMO. And I think OL depth will be important, so I'd probably rather keep him anyway, unless someone is making an amazing offer for him.

That's a fair point.

He's put the retirement rumors to rest, at least to my satisfaction. I wouldn't expect him to rock the boat either way, and it wouldn't change my draft strategy at all. I was just thinking out loud, especially since he commented on his contract situation the other day.

Steichen was here during the JT saga. It's not the same, but my point is Steichen doesn't solve every problem just by being in the building. I agree, it's Ballard's responsibility to find Kelly's successor, and the fact that everyone else has been re-upped except for him is probably a concern of his. You can expect that concern to multiply significantly if we draft a center early. Should we care? Maybe... if you have someone throwing off the vibes, it could be problematic, and issues like this can snowball. Not that it would stop me from drafting anyone, but they should be prepared for whatever happens next.

Let's say the Colts take Jackson Powers-Johnson in the second round, does Ryan Kelly cause trouble?

I don't think it's a non factor. It's something a team needs to consider, and determine whether his "issues" are definitely related to the diabetes, or if there's some personality stuff in there as well. I have a lot of type 1 diabetics in my life, I can tell the difference between low blood sugar and just being rude, even with the same person. Mitchell could be a diabetic and be a jerk at the same time. Not saying he is, just saying teams have to get to the bottom of it.

Do you have some reliable numbers on him? Something other than urban legend, which claims he ran 4.25... He ran a 4.38 at a private workout. No Combine, no pro day. So not in the 4.2 range.

Who feels like paring this down even further? Arm length, height, weight, etc... Theo Johnson is an example of someone who tests well, but his athleticism doesn't show up on tape all that much. I didn't watch a ton of him, but from what I did watch, I didn't see an explosive athlete.

I agree that the intention of the production is to get fans hyped and get people talking, and that obviously works. But that's a high level directive for the production in general, all of the videos they're doing. I assume that Ballard's direct input on each video is pretty limited, though. Broad strokes, sure. Final approval, definitely. They want to make sure it's compliant, and with how controlling, paranoid and risk-averse NFL GMs and coaches are, I would expect that he watches the final edit himself before it goes live. I think some editorial decisions are made with Ballard's input, maybe at his direction, like the decision to focus on members of the staff and let them show their personalities, etc. Cameras would not be allowed in the draft room without his blessing. But beyond that, I would think that the media team does the rest, within whatever parameters the decision makers have agreed to, and then the result is the media team's creation. That's obviously JMO, I don't have anymore insight than anyone else. But I think the credit for the hype and production really goes to the media team.

There aren't a lot of them to talk about. Of the handful of WR prospects in the sub 4.3 range, Henry Ruggs is probably the best player. He ran 4.27, and was doing well halfway through his second season, but we know how that ended. The best overall player in that range is Champ Bailey, who ran 4.28 back in 1999, and had a great career. Second best is Chris Johnson, who ran a 4.24, and had a strong career as well. So being fast isn't a curse, nor is it disqualifying. We already know that being fast doesn't make him a good player.

I don't know whether they would or not, but I'm just saying I don't think there's a blanket objection to drafting a smallish WR.

This is it, and that's how I saw Ballard's pushback -- he's always going to be small. So what do you do with that? Whether they were talking about Worthy or someone else, I don't think Ballard's point was that he needs to put on 10-12 pounds and he won't be able to. I think the point was you can't count on that, so judge his body as it is now. As for Worthy, he's not much smaller than Josh Downs. At a certain point, small is small. If you draft a guy like that, you need to be comfortable with his size, not betting that he's going to get bigger.

I don't think it was a troll job at all. Chris Ballard isn't producing or editing these videos. I'm sure he has some final say over them before they get published, but I doubt it was his call to end the video that way. I think he was making a sincere comment about a player during a discussion in the draft room. And for all we know it was weeks ago, and it's probably a stretch to connect it to anything he said in his presser the other day. Why it's interesting to me is that it makes me think maybe there's a player that the Colts would love to draft at #15, and rather than trading down, they'd take him if he's still there. I also don't think Ballard plays games with his pressers or other commentary. He was in a mood the other day, and toyed with the press room a little bit, but that was obvious. I think his comments about being open to trade back + having 19-21 first round grades was a signal to everyone that he's open to making a deal, but then again, he said he talks to GMs around the league anyway so there's no need to sneak in a reference. Ultimately, I think he's careful about what he says, but he's also not trying to mislead anyone. I think when he tells us what he wants to do and what's important to him, he means it, and it's generally what he winds up doing.