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Indianapolis Colts


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Everything posted by Superman

  1. It's fair that you weren't impressed by Campbell's routes. I'm not calling him a route running maven. But he does have better routes on tape than DK. I'm talking about traits. DK has his gifts, but he's also stiff, has mediocre change of direction and limited route running ability, doesn't really create any separation unless he's at full speed running in a straight line. And he doesn't have the technical savvy to make up for those shortcomings. There's a lot of recent history of receivers with his profile being drafted high, then not working out in the NFL. And that was my pre-draft issue with Metcalf, that I wasn't in love with his HWS or his tape, and especially the first round hype that came with it. And I don't think it's skillful or nuanced to run past, over or through a DB who is significantly smaller. It's raw athleticism, and it typically doesn't translate into a long, productive career. Then there's Campbell. Great speed, great change of direction, ability to make defenders miss, quickness and agility. He ran an impressive 40 himself, and jumped well, and while he's not as big and beastly as DK, he has a good size profile for a pro receiver. Different traits, on which I place more value. And when projecting, I think a player with Campbell's traits is more likely to develop as a route runner and technician. DK might be amazingly diligent, and he's obviously working hard and doing something right. And Campbell might be a slacker who doesn't put in the work and never realizes any of his potential, or he might never be able to stay healthy and produce (I'm not saying either of those things is true of Campbell, just a hypothetical.) So far, though, what we've seen on one hand is DK Metcalf, mostly healthy, in a great situation, making the most of those circumstances. And on the other hand, Campbell, mostly injured, in a bad situation, struggling. I don't think it's a reasonable, fair or helpful comparison to make at this point, and I'd be saying the same thing if the tables were turned. I think it's especially strange to undersell the difference is circumstances between the two. What I hoped for from Campbell is what we saw from Deebo Samuel. Similar production to DK, but on 19 fewer targets, much better YAC, more red zone catches, high yards/target (with 16 fewer deep targets), he gets less cushion but creates more separation... Good for him that he was able to stay healthy, and was in an offense that could use his abilities.
  2. I'm not minimizing what Metcalf is doing. I'm saying what he's doing is not based on any skill. The only question that's been answered about him is whether an NFL team will use his physical gifts to create production in the NFL (and really that wasn't a question, we know it's possible, it just doesn't happen that often). He's the same raw, unpolished guy that he was coming out, and those guys usually don't produce. Even if they have a good year or two, they usually fall off. As for Campbell, again, let's talk about traits. Campbell ran plenty of routes in college, and while most of them were from the slot, that doesn't undermine his ability to run them. He has change of direction ability, he can flip his hips, and he can produce yards after the catch. He's just as fast as Metcalf. What I don't understand is the inclination to write off a rookie receiver who was injured all year, and who played with Jacoby Brissett. (Hilton's yards/target went from 10.6 to 7.3, and we all know why.) (Here's one of the gifs I saved showing Campbell running a corner from the slot. https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ClosedFamiliarGallinule-max-1mb.gif )
  3. When a team uses raw size and speed well, you get Metcalf's 2019 season. Great job by everyone involved. But 75% of the time, raw HWS receivers don't produce like that at any point in their careers. They are the players everyone gets enamored with after the Combine because 'you can't teach size/speed', but that's just a platitude, and usually they don't live up to that hype. And I do think he was really unpolished in college. He still only runs three routes, his hands are shaky, he doesn't really high point the ball... he's still unpolished. He's a one trick pony, and it just so happens that his trick is working well so far. And good for him and Seattle, but having a strong rookie season with some splash plays is only the beginning of the story.
  4. I don't care about Metcalf's size or build. That and his speed are basically his entire profile. Nothing wrong with any of that, but I don't think any of those traits translate to good NFL receiver play at a high rate. Too many HWS prospects bomb in the NFL for me to care about those factors. His tape is subpar, and he is very raw. Even on his splash plays in the NFL, there are no routes being run, he's just beating guys down the field. He doesn't even make high point plays. Maybe he'll get there, but I don't think very highly of his skill level, and without the skill, his physical gifts won't be maximized. Like I said, he wound up with the right QB.
  5. He was hurt, and wound up in a system that couldn't use his skills even if he was healthy. I still think he has high level traits, and needs to improve his consistency as a pass catcher. Everything else I thought of him is still in play.
  6. Those camps are for high school QBs, being tutored by college QBs. I'm not sure if JB ever attended, either as a learner or a counselor...
  7. Metcalf has exceeded my expectations as a rookie. I'm still not impressed with his skill, and maybe that comes, but he's had more production than I expected, including some big moments. It helps that he was drafted by a team that has the most efficient deep ball passer in the NFL. Meanwhile, Campbell was injured all year, and played with a substandard QB. I wouldn't have drafted Metcalf over Campbell, so far be it from me to criticize Ballard for his decision. What gets me is that people think one season in which Campbell was hurt and Metcalf made some plays is conclusive. Based on traits, I still value Campbell over Metcalf.
  8. I think JB remains on the roster and has a shot at the starting job in 2020, and if I had to bet on it today, I'd say he's the Week 1 starter. So there's that. But that's about as "all in" as they're getting with him. He's under contract, specifically a two year deal so they could secure the spot and evaluate him, and they're clearly not sold on him as the long term starter at this point, but they're not exactly pulling the plug either. I think that's a reasonable place to be. To the bolded, I disagree strongly. Let's say you want Derek Carr, let's not undersell the cost in draft picks and salary. And I start with him because I think he's the best of the bunch, but he just QB'd a seven win team also. To the second bolded, that's really the crux of our disagreement, I think. I don't believe Rivers improves the Colts enough to make it worth the move. It's not about whether Rivers is better than JB; he is. It's a question of whether Rivers makes the Colts a contender. For me, the answer is probably not, so Rivers is a non-starter. Last bolded, my preferred approach is not ignoring the problem. It's fixing the problem in what I think is the best way, rather than panicking because we're not ready to contend in 2020.
  9. It's not that drafting a guy is off the table. The entire disagreement from me is with the idea that bringing in a vet FA would be enough of an improvement over JB to help the Colts get back to contention. I don't think the guys available will be good for the Colts. I also don't see that path as the best for getting a rookie ready asap. And the couple guys who might actually represent an improvement over JB are most likely too costly, especially if you want to draft a guy. Trading for Carr is a non-starter if you also want to draft a guy in 2020. The Foles option is highly unlikely (and is also a question mark, Foles really struggled in 2019). We talked about Rivers already. This is the disagreement. Who makes the Colts better? Who salvages us from a wasted season? I don't see it. And I feel like my angle is being misrepresented as 'you're okay with a wasted season with JB,' which is false. First, I don't think the result of 2019 is representative of the Colts ceiling with JB, given all the injuries. Second, I don't think that bringing in one of those other QBs salvages the 2020 season.
  10. You guys are ignoring the point. You're forcing this 'anyone but JB makes the Colts better,' and that's the actual disagreement. I don't think the also-rans everyone is trotting out there make the Colts better. Even those who might, I don't believe they take the team from 'wasted season' -- which is a dramatic way of saying the team isn't ready to contend, so we can lay it at the feet of the QB, which I'm not sure I agree with -- to serious contender. The point is that the best way to fix the QB position, now and future, is to draft the next guy. The patchwork solution isn't attractive to me. That's not saying I'm fine with wasting time on JB, just that we need to find the next guy in the draft.
  11. Agreed with that take. I shot that to stitches because we've been having a back and forth about this topic all season, and we both wondered whether Ballard would be willing to move up for a QB. But yeah, it's not a blanket determination that he wouldn't, not at all.
  12. He'll ultimately be judged on his ability to build a team, but his ease with the media makes him easy to root for and like.
  13. I'll say this, the Jags need to get better at QB just like we do.
  14. Minshew is pretty bad. He has some pizzazz that JB doesn't, but he's not a better QB at this point.
  15. The most important thing to me is that the QB of the future is on the roster in 2020. My preferred approach is to draft him and let him compete with JB for the starting job next year, and whatever happens is whatever happens, but he should be ready no later than Week 1 2021. This is the Patrick Mahomes program. Whether the QB room is rounded out with a third guy, and who that third guy is, those aren't relevant to me. Hoyer can stay until cut day, or until we find a trade partner for him. I'm fine with Kelly being in the picture, to me he's a flyer who might get a chance at some point and become a trade asset. If they bring in a good vet who can help the team compete for playoff contention and serve as a bridge to the future, or if they bring in a vet who is young enough and promising enough to actually be the future, then that's an acceptable Plan B. But I would still want to identify a guy in a middle round who has some promise for the future, and maybe we find ourselves in a Matt Flynn / Russell Wilson kind of situation in September.
  16. I'll try to watch more of him. I will say that I think pressure rate is kind of overblown anymore. Especially in this comparison, when Donald played 200 more pass rush snaps and 300 more total snaps. I also think it leads to overemphasizing plays on which the QB is still able to produce. If I move the QB but he still completes a pass downfield, the "pressure" isn't really helping my defense. And a player with a high pressure rate that doesn't convert with sacks typically doesn't have the finishing ability that playmakers have. I will say that a high pressure rate from the interior is a huge positive, and typically affects the offense more than an edge rusher.
  17. He'd be a three year deal candidate for me. He's a nice player against the run and pass, but not a huge difference maker.
  18. Yeah, to me this argument is about "anyone but JB in 2020," which is understandable, but I think an overreaction. I don't think it's the right way to proceed. And you both know that I'm not high on JB. There are other veteran QBs I would consider this offseason. Not interested in Rivers, though (or Dalton, Mariota, Keenum, Eli, etc.) Carr would cost too much to trade for.
  19. I obviously don't know anything, but to me, he should be their highest priority this offseason. Watkins and Hitchens can go, but you have to keep Chris Jones. If they don't tag him, Ballard should be all over it.
  20. I personally don't share that optimism about his floor or ceiling. I think his floor was represented well this year on a five win Chargers team. His ceiling is ultimately dependent on the quality of the roster around him, just like any other QB. While he's a better passer than JB, my question is whether he represents a significant upgrade, and I don't think he does. That's mostly because I'm thinking he's a shot fighter and will never be good again. You painted a picture of him inspiring some confidence, opposed to how things went as the year progressed in 2019. An alternate view might be Rivers throwing a handful of game-ending picks, or having a few three pick games that cost the team a chance to win, and the impact that would have on the team's morale.
  21. What's more likely with a 39 year old QB? That he goes back to his good play from two years ago and throws fewer interceptions while maintaining efficiency, or that he continues to struggle? Especially with a new team. You're right the Colts OL is better. The Chargers have a better receiving corps, the RB room is close to a wash, they have better TEs. They had a lot of injuries on defense, so maybe that side of the ball wasn't dramatically better this year, but still better IMO.
  22. Not definitive, but doesn't sound like a guy itching to move up for a QB...
  23. To me, Chris Jones is the kind of guy that doesn't hit the market, and I expect the Chiefs to do what they need to do to make room for him. But if they let him walk, absolutely, open the vault for him. That's a difference maker, but we're also probably talking about the Aaron Donald contract to get him.
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