Superman

No doubt. It could also mean that BTJ's issue is more concerning than Nabers. Or not, know way of knowing without having the medicals and someone to decipher and contextualize them for me. With DJ's mock, I think what's more likely is that his choices are flavored by what he's hearing + a desire to pair certain players with certain teams. Nothing he has stands out as weird or unreasonable (he has Latu as the 4th edge, by the way), but I think Bowers to the Colts is just what people think is fun, and BTJ to the Bills just makes sense. So he puts Rome at #10, and then no more WRs until BTJ at #28, which seems unlikely to me, and kind of forced. Then again, a month ago having BTJ at #28 seemed normal, so who knows.

He still has Nabers at 6 though...

I would need to get more info. If that's the indication from medicals, then I think I'd be okay with it. I don't know anything, though. It's probably a team by team thing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts are more conservative than other teams when it comes to shoulder injuries... Edit: https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/04/022/takeaways-nfl-draft-latest-buzz-rumors-medicals?__s=nxvbiahefc4aoa0o76dc So you're right, I probably misread this when I saw it the other day.

I don't know why he would only play 25% of the snaps for 2-3 years. Taven Bryan and Eric Johnson combined for about 600 snaps last year, why couldn't Murphy take most of those right away? I guess maybe Davis is in line to take those. Also, Buckner played about 350 snaps at DE last year, so he's not strictly used at 3T. I'd be fine with letting that work itself out in 2024. It's an unpopular stance, but I'm not super concerned with a first round pick being an immediate contributor. If he is, that's great, but even if we see a position group as strong and deep, and a rookie has to fight for playing time, I'm okay with that.

I'm not necessarily worried about it. The medical will be important for him and for Nabers, who I believe has the same situation. They might wind up having an operation after the draft.

I don't think players like Davis (and especially Bryan, who I don't think will make the final 53) should impact our draft strategy at all. Not even a little bit. If we like Byron Murphy, figure out what to do with those other guys later. The other versatile guys you mention don't scratch the itch the way Murphy would be expected to -- he should be looked at as a disruptive 3T who plays there every down, not a matchup guy or passing downs guy. If anything, maybe it's the other way around. The Colts already had a feel for the DTs in draft class and knew they wouldn't get what they want in the draft, so they addressed the position in free agency. And after this weekend, that might help people better understand the strategy at DB and WR... The bolded really gets at the heart of it. I like Murphy, but I'm not offering him as a great player that you just have to take a chance on. But when it comes to draft strategy, I think taking the best players is the way to go. I'm directly opposed to needs-based drafting, and to passing on a really good prospect because you have backup level veterans already on the roster.

I like our TE more than most. That would not stop me from drafting a really good TE prospect. I might not like Bowers as much as everyone else does. But he'd probably still be our best F TE right away.

Are you hoping it doesn't happen because he doesn't fit the Colts profile? Or because you don't think he'd be a good player for us? I agree that he's not a Ballard type of prospect, and for that reason, I doubt we draft him. We only have one DT who's shorter than 6'4" -- Adebawore is 6'2", he was drafted in the 4th round, he's an outlier athlete, has really long arms, and I think he's probably more of a DE/DT hybrid. Drafting a 6'0" DT/3T, especially in the first round, doesn't seem like something Ballard would do. But I think Murphy is a really good player, and a really good athlete, despite his lack of size. His speed and explosive numbers are great for a player his size. His tape looks good. He fits our defensive scheme. He led all interior DL prospects with a 19.6% pressure rate. He hates being blocked, and plays like he lives his life for the sole purpose of defeating offensive linemen. I am not comparing him to Aaron Donald. But before the 2014 draft, I said Donald was the kind of guy you just draft and figure it out, whether he fits your scheme/profile or not. In no way am I saying Murphy is as good as Donald was, not even as a prospect, but I think he might be good enough to apply the same logic. Put him in a gap shooting front and let him disrupt. I would not mind if we drafted him at all. It would be a big surprise, but I think he's a really good prospect.

Did you miss Buckner's new extension? The one with the large signing bonus and void years?

I like Latu, but don't you think there's a significant number of teams that are scared off by his medical? And then a couple more who will downgrade him because of his age?

I think he's a little overrated as a corner prospect. Doesn't mean I don't like him, I do. But I was hearing about how incredibly athletic he is, people were talking about him like he was a lockdown defender, then I watch him for a couple games and I don't see that. So at first I was pretty down on him. Then I went back and watched him with my expectations much lower, and I see what he has to offer. He's definitely athletic, but not the standout, premier athlete people were making him out to be at first. Watching his high school basketball videos helped me contextualize his athleticism, there's plenty of burst there. He has some struggles flipping his hips and staying connected late in the down. He's feisty and physical, plays the run with enthusiasm, tackles well, and he has explosiveness. He's better in shorter areas when he doesn't have to try to keep up with a receiver with elite speed. I know he ran 4.43, but it wasn't a pro day, it was a private workout. I discount timed speeds at pro days, and definitely at private workouts. To me, he's closer to 4.5 than 4.4, and that's what I expected when watching him play. To me, he's a safety/nickel prospect, not a boundary corner. And if he were looked at as a boundary corner, I think his arm length would probably disqualify him for the Colts, at least in the first round. And I think the Colts already view corner as a Day 2 position. He's said all the right things about playing multiple positions. And while I don't know how the new rules will affect kickoffs, I think it makes sense to have good options at returner, so that helps his stock as well. But I think the second round is the right range for him. If we drafted him, I think we still need a boost on the outside.

It's gonna be a crazy draft. TBH most of the other predictions don't come across as all that bold. Outside of anything that has the Colts trading up.

The Pats trade back from #3, and JJ McCarthy gets drafted ahead of Drake Maye. Latu is the third or maybe even the fourth Edge/DE to be drafted. Nate Wiggins is the second corner drafted. Cooper DeJean goes in the second round.

We have Higgins at home.

Chase wasn't extended, the Bengals just exercised the fifth year option and reported it as if they'd done something noteworthy. I doubt either Higgins or Hendrickson gets traded, but the Bengals definitely have some work to do. I'm not even sure what the plan is for Chase at the moment. No doubt they want to keep him, but the longer they wait, the more the market moves against them.

He applies some logic to including Nabers. He had previously eliminated him, but Nabers meeting with the Colts, plus recent reports about his attitude and concerns about his shoulder are fueling speculation that maybe he drops to #9 or somewhere around there, and then maybe the Colts would move up for him. I think Nabers could drop, #9 is kind of far but I suppose it's possible. Him dropping to #15 seems very unlikely. What's even less likely is that the Colts would move up.

From Stampede Blue:

And he's coming back from an achilles...

Is that because you don't believe him? Or do you think his comments are being overblown?

That's a meaningful clarification for me. I was just getting ready to say that I get where you're coming from, because there's a lot of grasping at straws and hearing what you want to hear. For example, some people listened to Chris Ballard say he'll probably trade back, and then listened to him explain why he likes to trade back, and came away convinced that he's going to trade up. I don't get that... But I was going to say that I disagree with you because Ballard doesn't really make intentionally misleading statements, and he drops clues about his draft strategy every year, to the point that Stampede Blue runs an article before every draft trying to decipher the clues and figure out which players the Colts might draft. I'm not a fan of their work in general, but they've had a noteworthy measure of success for a few years now. They pretty much nailed the Rock Ya-Sin pick back in 2019, they got four players right last year, and four of the first five picks in 2022. Here's this year's predictions. So I think we can figure out some basic stuff by piecing together what we know about the Colts preferences and comparing that with the things Ballard has said. However, your clarification is important, because in these videos I think the Colts are very careful to avoid releasing any identifying information about prospects and teams. In this latest video, we see someone watching tape of a Michigan game, and we hear someone's voice at the same time, so maybe you'd think what's being said applies to a Michigan player. But the audio might not be synced with what we're seeing. The way they splice in the B-roll and handle the audio, they can be showing you one thing but talking about something completely different. That's not rocket science, it's not a novel concept, but it's important to keep it in mind. And it would be smart of the Colts production team to make sure they misdirect whenever they can.

Some vague comments from Ballard in his end of season presser about mixing in coverages. So, not really.

Wow. Maybe I just got used to it...

@stitches I just noticed your profile pic. It's a good one. When did that happen?

I guess media could be saying stuff that I don't hear, I should acknowledge that. I just don't think anyone sourced or serious is saying it. It doesn't seem like those opinions are based on anything reputable. I was personally concerned that the way things went with Reich and Saturday could undermine the coaching search. It doesn't seem like that happened. The Colts interviewed a ton of good candidates, and wound up getting one of the more sought after guys. They got a highly sought after GM in 2017. There was the McDaniels treachery, but I think he was just a slimeball. The Colts are not a big free agent destination, I don't think that has anything to do with Irsay. I think free agents sign with the team that offers the most money, almost all the time. We've seen the Colts attract QBs like Rivers, Ryan, etc. Even Baker Mayfield listed the Colts as a desired landing spot in 2022. Maybe there's a player here or there who's turned off by Irsay, but I don't think anything like that has ever been reported. Like you said, the players only say good things. Anyone who goes on the record says good things. Former players call on him to introduce them to the HOF. I just wanted to throw out there that despite the whispers and stuff, it doesn't seem like there's any substance to the idea that the Colts operation is negatively affected by Irsay.

I merged this since there's an ongoing discussion.