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Everything posted by ztboiler

  1. Mine too...and that’s not necessarily a good thing. But nonetheless, I love the pick. When you need a LT like we do, and Darrisaw is available, it tells you how much this staff must love Paye...I like that a lot.
  2. There is a built in likelihood of a 3rd round comp pick...so that’s worth something...
  3. While you’re probably right...as are so many that are saying the same...a pass rush phenom doesn’t need a scheme fit. Von Miller in his prime would fit our scheme just fine, for instance, but wouldn’t have been considered a scheme fit for us either coming out of college
  4. Completely agree. It absolutely frees Ballard up to add talent through the draft as his board breaks, including the freedom to take some risk and trade down when a LT prospect is grouped with other prospects of comparable draft value
  5. While it’s evident that Ballard has set up the off-season to draft LT at 1 or 2...this mock would be a great outcome if the board doesn’t break his way.
  6. I’m not sure you get it
  7. Ballard is rigorous about performance delta and contribution alignment with contract. It’s not very entertaining in the early days of the off-season...but he does exactly what he says he will do. And he pays premium guys like Buckner the premium they deserve...just as he will Leonard and Q. Most of the guys flying off the board offer rather little performance delta at 15M per year above the guys he’s getting ready to pay 5M per year or less in a buyers market...
  8. Methinks Brandt, credentialed though he is, mixed up his facts re: Colts. It happens...and the Browns number was probably the line above the Colts in his spreadsheet...
  9. History suggests it will affect the middle class the most. Many, maybe even most mid-level guys will have to join the poverty class. Even in rising cap years we see the crunch where mid level FA's that miss the early waves of free agency have to settle for a year of chump change. This year the premium class will have to be thinner and the early waves of free agency shallower until most of the UFA's are gathered between league minimum and about $3M. You make a great point, that a team like the Colts might get a premium guy at a market number Ballard is willing to pay...though I think most premium players will forego multi-year contracts in compressed market that may only last a year.
  10. I don't think very many off-season Mocks, including professional talking heads, are incorporating the reduced salary cap level enough into Free Agent contract predictions. All your contract numbers make sense to me in a normal year, none are out of whack with normal market values, but there simply isn't enough money sloshing around the league to fuel them. It's unfortunate for TY, but if we don't pay him 2yrs/$20M, it's almost certain that nobody else will. There will be a handful of normal, bank breaking UFA signings to premium and rising second contract players, but the rest of the league's UFA's are mostly going to have to play on cheap one year deals slotted by their relative value. Even after 1/2 the league finishes slashing their roster to get below minimums, there isn't a third of the cap space available to spend in a normal rising cap year...
  11. Total NFL Cap Space March 2020 - $1.4 Billion Total NFL Cap Space Today - $284 Million (per OTC) based on projected $180.5 Million Cap We have all known it is going to be an unpredictable off-season league-wide...but this quantitative look at only 20% of the money available, year over year, to chase players and manage rosters is unprecedented...there is no way possible to put this into perspective until we see it play out...but really good veteran players will have to play for very little money in 2021 unless something changes. Ballard is likely to wait until the league spends what little it can...then hand pick premium talent from the clearance rack on one year deals. The Colts are in the perfect position in a perfect storm.
  12. Exactly. I’m OK with Darnold except Trubisky has accomplished more and costs less.
  13. To your point, if you want Darnold, you should really want Trubisky
  14. Interesting declaration about our 3rd string QB. Hope you feel better about whatever is bothering you.
  15. It’s about 10 minutes with Eason...and it’s worth a listen...you won’t gain any tangible...but you might get a better sense of the man.
  16. I can see the logic of offering Samuel a nice contract above his production line as an ascending receiver, but 4/60 feels like an ascending Outside receiver. I can’t see Samuel commanding that kind of contract in a cap shrinking year...maybe not even in a cap growth year... and Campbell was a fluke injury away from having the same stat line in 2020.
  17. Might work out that way...but If you’re gonna waste a year...don’t waste draft capital too.
  18. None of that works in sequence without stating your assumptions. Trubisky is far from plan A. But plan A retired 18 months ago. Plan B just retired as well. Alt plan B required way more than Ballard would give, thankfully. There are no plan Cs that we go into season with as confident as A or B....it’s just the way it works until you find your guy. Some might prefer Darnold as plan C, I certainly would, but that involves variables we know little about. Trubisky is actually a plan C I’d prefer to re-signing Brissett and who is actually available to sign in free agency without affecting your draft capital and that has additional value.
  19. It’s not crazy. Especially as an alternative to spending draft capital chasing QBs that aren’t franchise guys. The legend of Tubisky’s awfulness exceeds his actual awfulness...he’d complete a high percentage in Reichs offense. Might have a year very similar to the one Rivers just had. In the end, he probably has the same issue as Rivers...can’t close with elite QBs
  20. I think that’s the pivot point. Ballard will be conservative about giving up draft capital and defer to roster building until he sees the kind of closing abilities he had in Luck. Rare.
  21. Good points all. Like you, I don't see Ballard willing to commit such a chunk of draft capital to the land of the unknowns...but I also think he's more ready than ever to capitulate a bit on his public statements that it's about the team not the QB. I'll bet in meetings with Irsay, Ballard and Dodds are ready to admit that you don't beat Mahomes, Allen, etc in the playoffs unless you can close...it's not just about scoring enough points to win, it's the probability of scoring at winning time. They can replace Luck's productivity, pretty much did with an efficient year from Rivers, but they are nowhere near Luck's closing ability. That guy had an unbelievable 4Q win rate....
  22. We agree on price...you just don't like my accounting verbage... We also agree on Stafford....but that's not the point. Ballard has said it's not about picking or signing a QB...it's about being right. If he thinks he is right about the 2nd QB available being a future HOF guy...then those prices are worth paying to go get him. Not expecting it...but the dynamic could be right.
  23. If you can get Stafford for a 1, even a 1 + something less than a 2, that's hard to pass up. However, the dynamics of this draft are such that it's not out of the question to believe you could draft the 2nd QB off the board by jumping in front of the Lions at 6. In 2011 the Falcons got all the way to 6 from 27 for a late 2nd, 4th, and next year's 1 and 4. Might not cost much more than that from 21 this year. The Eagles have 6, are keeping Wentz and are in the perfect reset mode to use a windfall of picks....
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