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Everything posted by SteelCityColt

  1. The reality is, as ever, likely between the two polarised extremes that seem to get applied to Leonard. Let's start with this obsession about tackle numbers, it's a horribly bad stat to * a player because it provides absolutely zero context. For example if you're on a bad team where the D is on the field more, you're more likely to have tackle opportunities. Where the tackle was made is more interesting (TFLs/Yards gained pre-tackle). We can see from the numbers and the film that Leonard isn't too bad at getting penetration when the play calls for him to rush. Besides, what contributes to success more, tackles or turnovers. Sounds a stupid question I know, but giving up yard doesn't necessarily lead to losing, while losing the turnover battle tends to have more impact on win %: We complained long and hard about not having a playmaker on Defense for many seasons, we now have one, and people complain he's too splashy? The pass coverage is more suspect, but odd. Because he was pretty good in his (2nd?) season, before dropping off. I don't know how much injury is impacting this year. I also don't know how much is down to the 'react and rally' type scheme that we seem to use. As for the money, that's just the way the NFL works, constant inflation of contract value, and the last guy who got paid will be overpaid until the next guy gets paid. We're not too far removed from the outcry and QBs going north of $20 million a year for some pretty average QBs, now that would be a steal for a legit starting QB (excluding rookies). He is what he is, a playmaker, a very very good player, a team leader, but perhaps not the complete package (yet).
  2. The classic 1000% post about Barkley? He was so good there was no way he wasn't going #1 overall. It's fine making bold statements, fine if they don't come off, not so fine to just quietly climb down off the hill you chose to die on.
  3. 5th and 7th by what metric though. If it's just points scored % that includes kicks. Go look at red zone passing and there's quite a drop off from Luck to JB and Rivers wasn't much better. Now that precludes the running game of course, but Hines.up the gut is money right? What metric...
  4. I mean Gardner Minshew had better RZ stats in the same time period...
  5. He was with Luck but that was all of one season, Brissett not so much. So far that would suggest talent overcoming play calling...
  6. I really don't want to agree with this, but the evidence is becoming compelling. I like Frank, I think he's a good offensive mind, but perhaps a pretty bad play caller. The NFL has gone through a fairly rapid evolution of "roles" on the coaching staff and some teams are still slightly stuck in the traditional ideas. If you have a brilliant head coach who can call plays, great. But there's no shame in giving up play calling. BB still has a defensive play caller.. and I'd say he's the best defensive strategist ever.
  7. Bingo! He really is an absolute lunch pail guy. Underrated route runner, decent in the red zone, and you saw his blocking skills on the long Taylor run. Compare to Pittman who slightly panicked I feel down field, and you kinda saw Taylor put his hands on him to steer him into the correct block. I've long time loved Pascal and will continue to do so.
  8. I'm going to guess Taylor and you're commitment to not wanting to like him is weirdly admirable.
  9. Yet weirdly we have the "tied 4th" best receiver league wide in terms of Red Zone TDs (with 3, leagues leaders are Kupp/Hopkins with 6 each). Can you guess who it is? Height isn't everything in the red zone and I agree we cold use Hines in more creative ways.
  10. Ahh the Samson Satele effect you mean... Probably still head bobbing somewhere out there to this day. Do we? Or do we just not use them.... hmm I'd bet @EastStreet would have something to say about that Big Mac.
  11. QFT and that's coming from a guy who likes stats. People are bloody complicated.
  12. Another fallacy of us fans. We tend to be myopic about our own bad beats.
  13. I'd argue this to degree, some people are more 'injury prone' than others, but it's a guessing game still. Campbell had no history that would suggest he'd have so many injuries. I think we're kinda agreeing even if doesn't seem so. I think there's a real big difference between 'pure' stats scenarios and real world problems. My day job involves modelling some fairly complex systems. In an ideal world you'd be able to measure everything perfectly and understand cause/effect probabilities, in reality... not so much. Especially when you introduce human behaviour. I've long advocated you can't argue about not drafting a player in hindsight, especially low rounders. Some of those were very unique situations that you couldn't replicate on other teams. Like an inverse Jerry Hughes. I don't think he was ever happy here in Indy, as soon as you take him out of somewhere he didn't like he flourished. But that's why we like the NFL right? If a numbers geek could tell us all the outcomes, why would we watch?
  14. What's the best metric for assessing success of a draft class? Ages ago I dived into trying to break down drafts and looked at things such as average games stated/All pro selections/Some position based stats and it soon gets pretty noisy. But you do start to pick out a few things that aren't all that surprising. QBs tend to 'need' to be drafted higher to be long term successful vs say RBs where you can get some low rounders having long/decent careers. See I like the chart above, but it's hard presented without the context/methodology to understand if it's good analysis or not, and that's not to say it's not.
  15. TLDR Flipping a coin - mutually exclusive event Injuries - Not so mutually exclusive, the initial injury can impact the probability of further injury. But you're into the realms of not so 'clean' probability. Condensing your post, what are the probabilities are the following outcomes from a coin toss exercise? TTTTTTTTTTT HHHHHHHH TTHHHTHHH HHHHHHHTT THTHTHTHTH Of course you see clusters, but that doesn't change that every event should be 50/50 (caveat you can have a NULL outcome if you're coin flipping is really bad). The gamblers fallacy you get from this is people seeing a run of Reds/Blacks on roulette and insist it must be the other colour soon otherwise it's not really 50/50.
  16. I really don't want to detract from your point, but this is absolutely not how this works, and it a gambler's fallacy. Spurious predictive maths aside, one injury does tend to lead to more susceptibility to others though, often in compensation for preceding injuries.
  17. I can agree with this sentiment, but it's also a 4th round QB, the odds of success were never that high to start with.
  18. Devil's advocate... if we hadn't faced the Luck retirement, the death by mediocrity of JB, the Rivers retirement tour and Wentz being injured, would we even care so much about a 4th round QB flyer getting waived?
  19. Let's not act like your talent evaluation has been without fault, the difference here is you show up when you're right and are strangely absent when you're wrong...
  20. That's a false conclusion to draw... plenty of vaccinated people still wear masks.
  21. Mmm I think it's more of a lazy trope that gets trotted out by people who don't want to take responsibility for their own actions.
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