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  1. But isn't this the formula for any winning team? Unless you have Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, etc....you aren't going to consistently win, make the playoffs or hoist a Lombardi. We are working through the growing pains of finding our guy. Ballard kicked the can for as long as he could because he very well knows that as GM in the NFL if you swing on a QB in the first round and miss- you can kiss your job goodbye. I think a lot of people are discounting what the Indianapolis Colts inherently are as a franchise- something that we can't change and it's an inevitable reality- we are a small market franchise who is subject to the exact same salary cap rules and competitive landscape as the other 31 teams. It might be unfair, but it is the reality that we have to face. Things to consider: -We don't have a Peyton Manning or Luck anymore. The QB isn't drawing high value free agents to Indianapolis over more attractive offers. -Although Steichen seems great, he is not established enough to attract free agents to come play for him yet over more attractive offers. -We are coming off an abomination of a season in which our owner seemed to be pulling the puppet strings and micro- managing. It will take a few seasons of functional growth to attract players back into trust our front office and ownership. -Players can sign the same deal that we offer but choose to play in tax exempt states like Florida. Nice weather, more active night life, based on the recent rankings likely also better atmospheres for their families, weight rooms, facilities in general. Lucas Oil might be a nice stadium, but from all other accounts we are very average (and probably below) in what really attracts an NFL player to come play for you. -Most importantly- players and agents know that (for the above aforementioned reasons) Ballard is never going to blow the top off in contract negotiations, and if they balloon above his target, he pulls out. Ballard himself knows that he isn't exactly playing in a level playing field and therefore his philosophy needs to be defined and disciplined- and I agree with it. To have NFL top talent on the Colts- we need to draft those guys ourselves so that we can control the rights to retain them. It's our only chance, and at least Ballard is well above average at drafting.
  2. I completely agree with you about investing a pick in a QB3, however I don't think our roster has the luxury of taking one in the first 3 rounds-especially now with the Flacco signing. I also think Milton showed enough at the combine where there is no chance he lasts 3 rounds. A team like Seattle probably wouldn't hesitate to bring him in as their #2 and let him sit behind Geno for the remainder of his deal. Sam is a weird one. He was always going to be a 3-4 year development project and that is exactly what he has been. He has only played real NFL snaps during our teams most deplorable moments in the last 10 years...and I don't really think this is a fair shake at what he might be able to do with a capable and confident o-line, RB, and especially play caller. His profile fits our offensive scheme well as a QB that can move and processes quickly, and from all reports that I have read over the years he has worked diligently in improving his mechanics and arm strength. To add to this, in every chance to show his stuff in pre-season action, he has played fantastic. At the very least, he is your perfect QB3 who knows the system, will work hard to make other players progress and is as cheap as they come. I think his chances of winning games if (God Forbid) he was thrust into action would be far better than if Milton was our QB this year. Just my opinion.
  3. I think so, a good deal. He has been top of the league in tackles for a few seasons now, so production will never be an issue for him. Seems durable, knock on wood. Franklin is also very active in the community and is a positive role model for kids and all that. It goes a long way to giving management the confidence in locking up those players nice and early, and in this case at an affordable rate. Zaire is probably worth more per year and still probably has some upside of improving. Getting rid of a next year problem now is never a bad thing.
  4. I think Indianapolis, a small market by nature, has always and will usually have trouble attracting the best talent in free agency. Having Manning or Luck would substantially help towards attracting the best, but right now we have a developing rookie with the keys to the Cadillac. So there's that. The main issue lies in the teams we are going up against when bidding for these players. If Miami, Tampa, Jags want to offer the same deal to our FA targets- why wouldn't the player choose the other teams over Indy? They all outperformed us last year, the climate is perfect and oh ya....that state TAX thing that FLA players are exempt from. So that leaves Indy in a position of having to overpay for anyone they want to bring in. Ballard knows this and everyone else does too. SO my point is, I do believe Ballard may make a dip in FA this year, but most certainly not at a marquee position unless he wants to pay for the likes of aging talent like Khalil Mack, etc. Maybe this is where he dips. I think he will overspend a bit on a position like linebacker or safety or DT. Expect moves at these three positions specifically, because it will free up Ballard to focus primarily on O for the first few picks of the draft. Its the more frugal and sound approach.
  5. You actually wonder why Lewis hasn't been more impactful? It is simply because he hasn't managed to compile back to back full seasons. He has had some back luck with season enders. Overall though he has always produced in a limited role and that is why he has always been brought back. Perhaps we should give him a bit more of a role since he has pretty much earned it.
  6. I would love to see Jacoby come back here to be our backup on a reasonable deal. He and Minshew should come at about the same price tag (Jacoby may be a tad cheaper due to age?) The Mariota call is decent too and he played in the Eagles system this year. He would transition into our O and be even cheaper than the aforementioned. It all really comes down to what Minshew is asking for. If its reasonable and on par with his value as a BACKUP, I think we bring him back. Personally- I don't see any team bringing him in to be their starter. They would bring him in to compete with a Mac Jones level QB. If Minshew can land in that type of situation he is likely to make a few million more than if he stayed in Indy- but he kind of made it clear that money isn't everything for him, he seemed to enjoy his time here and mentoring AR so who knows? Maybe he takes a team friendly to stick around. Gardner has had years to prove he's a starter, so nobody is giving him 20 million a year. His ceiling for pay is closer to 10- But do WE want to pay that? It slightly takes the benefit out of having a rookie on a cheaper deal. I like the Sam E approach as backup- He's still cheap, he knows the system, he can run a bit, and if AR goes down again at least we probably lose bad enough to pick high.
  7. This is kind of where I am at. There is nothing that occured this season that gives me the confidence that Richardson is durable. I have hope that he can be good IF HE STAYS HEALTHY, but that is completely up in the air right now. He could go on to not miss another game for 15 years, but if I am a betting man- he will miss a few games a year, and we will need a good young back up. Ideally, I would like that backup to have a similar skillset to Richardson so we can develop the same O that becomes sort of interchangeable with either guy- like what the Ravens have with Lamar and Hundley. Having said that, I don't think we can spend that pick on a QB in the first round. There is no way. We have too many bigger holes to fill, and the promise of AR and his draft slot alone provides that we need to spend our first round capital elsewhere this year. If this were the same conversation next year (AR was injured AGAIN for most of the year), then you absolutely use a first on QB- and I would assume that it's a new GM making that pick. For now though, our wagon is hitched to AR. I am okay with a QB in the third round that is athletic. I still think Sam E is likely a better option to run our system if AR goes down, but I digress. There is a reason he is still rostered. I think Ballard definitely goes WR or literally BPA at 15 this year (or even a slight trade back is likely). If someone like Nabers falls to 12-13, maybe a trade up? Bowers at 15 seems right too. I like these players here. I don't think we take a CB that high because we value zone corners in our scheme which can be had in droves in the 2nd and 3rd round. Should be a very interesting draft, especially after seeing what happens in FA this year. This is the first year that I truly feel we will dip on a player or two. But it will likely be a safety and a linebacker. Cheapest spots to pay top dollar for, which aligns with Ballards MO.
  8. I think what people are quick to discount and often here is cause and causation. The chicken or the egg argument. Personally, I think its way more team oriented than any of us give it credit for. The teams that go the furthest every year are just that. The best TEAMS. I think we are too quick to say that one teams success solely lies on the shoulders of (usually) one person, and that is so far from the truth with any Super Bowl winning team. It might just so happen that personality types (and how well they gel together) is the secret sauce here. So often, trying to fit square pegs into round holes with Coach/Quarterback personality types is the key factor to weather a team has success or in the case of the Patriots for many years- sustained success. I wouldn't say that Brady and Bill were necessarily the same personality types but they certainly allowed their biggest strengths to meet in the middle. They expected discipline and hard work and dedication from their teammates and led by example in accomplishing it. I think you are seeing more of a shift in how coaches are running their teams to become much more liberal in treatment of their guys and also their discipline philosophies. McDaniels, Sirianni and to a lesser degree perhaps McVey and Shannahan are all examples of this. I think Shane is a bit of straight edge and conservative, but I digress- The teams that go the furthest have a synced up identity and philosophy. I think with Shane and Richardson, we can absolutely accomplish this. Starts with Ballard though- making sure he is matching up these personality types for best chance of success.
  9. Maybe, but the 60 sacks from this year is the most recent example from what will look the closest to our starting D on week 1 of next year. It could be an anomaly, but it could also be the start of a trend. I saw improvement from Dayo, solid play from Paye. We definitely need to add another rusher to the mix, but I think the corners and linebackers in coverage is the main issue.
  10. This year has been good and bad for a variety of reasons. Minshew being able to compete coming off the bench is great for the fans, team, coaches and player development, but hurts our overall draft pick this April (okay big deal, I would take the first benefits over the last negative). We have been able to make the most out of a bad (AR going down) situation. The biggest impact cannot really be quantified, and its a big negative- not having AR on the field all year taking valuable reps. Weather AR played well this year never really mattered. The fact that he got valuable reps and we saw some growth and improvement and chemistry with his guys- this was always the most important thing for this whole season....and it was robbed from us. What makes it even more painful is that AR played a LOT better than a lot of us assumed he would right out of the gate. What could this kid's ceiling actually be? In his limited action he looked great and very explosive and pretty raw. He clearly needed those reps and it was going to be a thrill to watch him utilize them. But the caveat is the thing that scares me the most...Even when he was not shut down for the season, Anthony missed a significant amount of time for various different ailments. It wasn't just one freak injury....it was like 3 or 4 of them. I am more scared that the guy just simply isn't durable, and what makes him the biggest threat on the field and the reason we took him at 4 is also the same reason he is on bench in a sling. If he doesn't become some form of Jalen Hurts style of passer(less risky running, half read options, more disciplined QB play and throwing into accurate windows), I am legitimately concerned he will have a short career. Point being- We lost the most valuable thing here in development time for our QB. We had the advantage of him being 21 (22 for his developmental year). Now his age is more irrelevant since next year will now be that developmental year. Same goes for enjoying five full years of having a QB on a rookie deal....now we will also probably have to roster a semi-expensive backup to insure ourselves that we can repeat a worst case scenario like this year. While this season has been fun, and good for fans- I might say that it was a big of a NET LOSS for our Colts. Will definitely revisit this logic in late January and hope we mop the floor with the Texicans this Saturday night!
  11. I wouldn't say Pate isn't good...he is a much more balanced defender. I think all of us expected and hoped he would become a great speed rusher, but he was never that guy and in hindsight I think it was wishful thinking. He has a high motor and plays both the pass and run with competence. Having said that, I don't think he was worth the pick where we took him. He has played like more of a second rounder/low first rounder. Dayo has either met or exceeded expectations at this point- but I also think he has played about right where you would expect a second rounder (especially coming off an Achilles) to play. His sack numbers keep trending up and I am excited to see how he continues to develop. I would agree that Grandson can go. You can find an undersized receiving tight end literally anywhere. He is just a guy, always was, and was probably only drafted because Frank Reich was pounding the table for him. You're right- Mallory has looked good on a small sample size. I would just let Ogletree walk at this point, and Mo-Allie is a very expensive backup who I don't see us keeping. Also- Jelani Woods is apparently made of the only most fragile type of glass, since a hamstring has now kept him out the entire year after a very promising rookie campaign. I would hold onto him simply for his measurables. but I would be pretty worried here too. Expect an upgrade at the TE position as a whole. Definitely need a few more LB's with specific skillsets or a stud that can do it all. High pick anyone?
  12. If I am being honest, I wish I could see Sam E run this O with Steichen calling the plays and Sam running around on some half field read options plays. We could go after a mobile young signal caller, but I figure that it would take him at least a year or two in our system to provide quality backup value, unless he is a vet that has played in Shane's system elsewhere ala Minshew- and those guys are limited. So we come back to Sam. He will be two years in Shane's system next year, almost past his rookie deal with some starting experience. He is plenty mobile, and you can't tell me that his arm is much less than Minshew's. My point being- I don't see a scenario where Sam doesn't probably compete for the backup spot next year. Having said that, he are spending pennies on the position and given AR's rookie campaign, we probably need a much better insurance policy than Sam in case of the worst. Ballard surely doesn't want to travel down that road again. Sam intrigues me in this system but unfortunately I doubt we will ever get the chance to actually see it happen- and if we do- we are probably screwed to some extreme anyway.
  13. This is very true, good post. All of our skill position players are still on their rookie deals, most importantly QB. We SHOULD be able to overspend on a stud like the Dolphins are doing with Tyreek, but we cant because we are saddled with a few questionable contracts with players that are underperforming their payday. I honestly don't see a scenario where Leonard is a Colt next season at his current rate of production. I get it, he is coming back from a lot of injuries over an extended period....but if he doesn't become even 80% of his former self on the field and quick- I expect him gone, as we can afford to cut ties with him after this year. You can't all tell me that we could probably plug in Stuard instead of Leonard and our D would be better? Probably, but we still have to let Leonard find his sea legs. The upside is immense if he can get back into form.
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