2021 Bucs at Colts: Stats, PFF, Poll, Discussion

[EastStreet]

 

 

Getting ahead of things this week, as I will likely be busy after today... 

 

Note... I pulled most of this (PFF) while the Bucs were playing last night, so not inclusive of the last game. Pulled the ranks this AM, and not sure if updated. 

 

TLDR Summary of TB

• Buc's O (General) - loaded... 
  • Buc's Passing O - #1 QB, possibly the best WR/TE group (Brown has been out though, but Gronk is back), and arguably the best pass pro OL in the league... LG injury situation could be an impact though.
  • Buc's Run O - capable, but they just don't run a ton with their passing O
• Buc's D (General) - good, but IMO overrated, and their ranks are in part due to their O keeping them ahead.
  • Buc's Passing D - Average overall, but some good pieces. Good safeties (Winfield and Whitehead), on good CB (Dean), and good pressure from one side (Shaq Barrett)
  • Buc's Run D - Very good, but teams just don't run much against them (because their opponents are normally down). I think overrated a bit. 

Keys to Game

• On O - Balance. If we can be successful running, I think we'll win. Buc's pass D isn't scary either. If our OL can play well, I have no doubt we can keep it close.
• On D - Not really worried about their RBs, but I am afraid of Brady killing our zone. Brady is much more savvy than Allen. Gronk is back now, so that's scary. Hopefully Brown is out again with the ankle or whatever drama. Overall though, I just think the best defense is for our O to be balanced and keep their O off the field as much as possible. If Marpet is out, that could hurt them.

Line: Bucs -2.5 and a 60.5% probable winner (ESPN)

 

 

• Offense - Bucs / Indy
  • PPG - #1 / #5
  • RZ% - #9 / #25
  • 3D% - #3 / #14
  • YPG - #2 / #11
  • TOP - #13 / #7
  • RYPG - #26 / #4
  • RYPA - #19 / #2
  • PYPG - #1 / #23
  • PYPA - #12 / #21
  • Rush Play % - #31 / #8
  • QB Sack % - #1 / #7
  • Pass Rating - #3 / #14
• Defense - Bucs / Indy
  • PPG - #11 / #13
  • RZ% - #10 / #29
  • 3D% - #17 / #19
  • YPG - #8 / #19
  • TOP - #13 / #7
  • RYPG - #1 / #15
  • RYPA - #2 / #24
  • PYPG - #17 / #18
  • PYPA - #7 / #22
  • Rush Play % (least) - #1 / #14
  • Pressure % - #19 / #30
  • QB Sack % - #17 / #20
  • Pass Rating - #10 / #22

 

 

Note: Potential injury status in italics and underlined based on last weeks status and stuff that happened last night.

 

PFF

• Offense
  • QB Tom Brady 90.9 (#1 rated QB)
  • RB Leonard Fournette 72.9
    • Ronald Jones II 53.8
    • Giovani Bernard 63.5
  • WR1 Mike Evans 68.9
    • Tyler Johnson 59.5
  • WR2 Chris Godwin 79.3
    • Jaelon Darden 57.6
  • WR3 Antonio Brown O 87.4
    • Breshad Perriman No PFF 
  • TE1 Rob Gronkowski 76.2
  • TE2 O.J. Howard 48.4
    • Cameron Brate 52.5
  • LT Donovan Smith 80.7 (1 sack allowed)
  • LG Ali Marpet Q 80.8 (1) - left the game with a quad last night
    • Nick Leverett O     No PFF
  • C Ryan Jensen 68.6 (1)
    • Robert Hainsey 61.1
  • RG Alex Cappa 71.6 (2)
    • Aaron Stinnie 44.9
  • RT Tristan Wirfs 76.9 (1)
    • Josh Wells 63.1
• 3-4 Base D
  • RDE Ndamukong Suh 49.1 (3 sacks)
    • Patrick O'Connor 45.9
  • NT Vita Vea O 74.1 (2)
    • Rakeem Nunez-Roches 61.0
  • LDE William Gholston 54.2 (2)
    • Steve McLendon 49.7
  • WLB Jason Pierre-Paul 52.9 (2) (playing with rotator cuff injury)
    • Anthony Nelson 52.2 (1)
    • Cam Gill 59.1
  • LILB Devin White 37.2
    • Kevin Minter 58.3
  • RILB Lavonte David 68.6
    • K.J. Britt 27.5
    • Grant Stuard 46.3
  • SLB Shaquil Barrett 79.4 (6)
    • Joe Tryon-Shoyinka 52.5 (3)
  • LCB Sean Murphy-Bunting (just activated last last game) 55.9 (2020)
    • Dee Delaney 48.8 (1 INT)
    • Ross Cockrell 65.3
  • RCB Jamel Dean 75.9 (2)
    • Pierre Desir 65.4 (1) - yes, our old Desier
  • S1 Antoine Winfield Jr. 79.2 (1)
    • Andrew Adams O 51.9
  • S2 Jordan Whitehead 69.7 (1)
    • Mike Edwards 67.4 (2)
       

[Catloaf]

Their team is so loaded on talent it’s ridiculous.  All the best players in the league just followed Brady and took pay cuts to farm rings.  If we win it will be the biggest win of the season, and will be like a mini SB in my mind.

[RollerColt]

Watched the entire Bucs and Giants game. Gotta say, the Giants had receivers open on most passing plays, and when they called on Barkley to run he didn't seem to have too much trouble. 

 

The Bucs offense is of course world class for a reason. But that defense is not the same as last years. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but we can win this thing if we continue to play smart football. If Wentz can find Pittman and Hilton, we should be able to keep this one close. 

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Watched the entire Bucs and Giants game. Gotta say, the Giants had receivers open on most passing plays, and when they called on Barkley to run he didn't seem to have too much trouble. 

 

The Bucs offense is of course world class for a reason. But that defense is not the same as last years. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but we can win this thing if we continue to play smart football. If Wentz can find Pittman and Hilton, we should be able to keep this one close. 

Yeah one of the biggest problems for the Giants was their QB had very little time to get rid of the ball and he's just not that good anyway.  Wentz is much better and given a little time should do well in the passing game when needed.  Now if our OL doesn't give him any time then things could change quickly.

[IinD]

All I want for Christmas is to beat Brady.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

Yeah one of the biggest problems for the Giants was their QB had very little time to get rid of the ball and he's just not that good anyway.  Wentz is much better and given a little time should do well in the passing game when needed.  Now if our OL doesn't give him any time then things could change quickly.

 

Giants OL hasn't been good for a long while. Easy to feel sorry for Jones. 

Our OL should do much better. 

 

The last two teams the Bucs lost to, were WFT and NO, both who have above average OLs. And both have decent running games. WFT didn't do great running, but they kept at it (ran more than passed) and won the ToP war.

 

Bucs are 2-3 on the road too.... 

[#12.]

Frank needs to have plan B fully formed and ready to go.  Indoors in perfect weather, Brady might completely embarrass this pass defense.  Wentz may need to gun it and take a high number of downfield shots again.

 

Move the pocket, Frank, use misdirection and get Wentz rolling out throughout the game.

[Happy2BeHere]

6 minutes ago, #12. said:

Frank needs to have plan B fully formed and ready to go.  Indoors in perfect weather, Brady might completely embarrass this pass defense.  Wentz may need to gun it and take a high number of downfield shots again.

 

Move the pocket, Frank, use misdirection and get Wentz rolling out throughout the game.

Forget plan B, he better have plan A. That's where he falters. Follow the buffalo game footprint IMO

[Colt Overseas]

Worth noting that Vita Vea is expected to return this weekend which is pretty big considering he is arguably the best run stuffing NT in the game.

 

 

 

 

[Mitch Connors]

Defense - Bucs / Indy

PPG - #11 / #13

RZ% - #10 / #29

 

Those stats are very interesting to me. If I read that correctly we seldom allow teams into the redzone but when they do get there they score TDs vs us more than every team except 3. Am I misunderstanding those combined stats?

Low points per game vs high redzone success is the exact opposite of the "bend but dont break defense" that we're often cited as having.

[buccolts]

1 hour ago, Colt Overseas said:

Worth noting that Vita Vea is expected to return this weekend which is pretty big considering he is arguably the best run stuffing NT in the game.

 

 

 

 

Still gotta run to keep them honest, but I'm guessing Wentz will take some shots on play action.

Their pass defense is just average if I recollect correctly.

[coming on strong]

5 hours ago, Catloaf said:

Their team is so loaded on talent it’s ridiculous.  All the best players in the league just followed Brady and took pay cuts to farm rings.  If we win it will be the biggest win of the season, and will be like a mini SB in my mind.

they are a aging team not just brady the whole team is around 30 or over mostly .   we can beat them up they played garbage teams got beat down by the saints and rams and washington .   brady gets easy schedules every single year .  i dont care what people say he has declined in talent greatly from the patriot days the only difference is he is on the best team he has ever been on . they are beatable

[coming on strong]

5 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Watched the entire Bucs and Giants game. Gotta say, the Giants had receivers open on most passing plays, and when they called on Barkley to run he didn't seem to have too much trouble. 

 

The Bucs offense is of course world class for a reason. But that defense is not the same as last years. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but we can win this thing if we continue to play smart football. If Wentz can find Pittman and Hilton, we should be able to keep this one close. 

they cant just line up and run the ball though they have to use screens as running plays .  they are beatable if washington without chase young can beat them down we have a chance .   brady is in decline 100 percent with the eye test . the team is holding him up for now .  in 2019 we saw what he looks like in his 40s with a regular team . 

[Solid84]

If we can keep Brady off the field we may have a chance. If not it’s going to be really ugly. 

[John Hammonds]

All I want for Christmas is for someone to break Tom Brady in half.

 

Not figuratively.

 

*SNAP!* -- Like a stale Twix.

 

Go Colts.   

[ColtJax]

This really is a bad match up for us defensivly wise. Brady uses the TE real well, we don't cover the tight end. Brady uses the short pass to set up the big play, we fall for that. On the positive note, we can run all day on them, and we will..

[ruf]

4 hours ago, #12. said:

Frank needs to have plan B fully formed and ready to go.  Indoors in perfect weather, Brady might completely embarrass this pass defense.  Wentz may need to gun it and take a high number of downfield shots again.

 

Move the pocket, Frank, use misdirection and get Wentz rolling out throughout the game.

we cannot run up the middle on them like we did the Bills (not with Vita being back) we need to run and block the edges and make those big DL run to the ball --2 rb sets--misdirection and having CW rolling out

[holeymoley99]

2 teams headed in opposite directions as Colts have won 6 of 8 and 2 loses both in overtime while Tampa has lost 2 of last 3 after hot 7-1 start...may not be as easy as last week but Colts game to lose for sure.

[Stephen]

57 minutes ago, ruf said:

we cannot run up the middle on them like we did the Bills (not with Vita being back) we need to run and block the edges and make those big DL run to the ball --2 rb sets--misdirection and having CW rolling out

Id run up middle anyway to test if Vita is really recovered. I don't care how good he is if we run the football 30 plus times they will get tired

[Stephen]

43 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

2 teams headed in opposite directions as Colts have won 6 of 8 and 2 loses both in overtime while Tampa has lost 2 of last 3 after hot 7-1 start...may not be as easy as last week but Colts game to lose for sure.

I agree the key will be to be more physical than them and avoiding turnovers

[holeymoley99]

16 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I agree the key will be to be more physical than them and avoiding turnovers

Agree both our lines need to take care of business, the O line has been on a roll and the D line getting a lot of pressure on QBs and locking down the run. I expect Leonard to get another punch fumble this week. Another key is how many holding penalties the O line gets called for, we have had a lot of long runs called back and some very ticky tack calls (Reed especially, they look clean by NFL standards).

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, holeymoley99 said:

2 teams headed in opposite directions as Colts have won 6 of 8 and 2 loses both in overtime while Tampa has lost 2 of last 3 after hot 7-1 start...may not be as easy as last week but Colts game to lose for sure.

May be the Colts game to lose, but I thought I saw that TB is favored to win?   I think they’re a 2.5 favorite?

 

Can someone confirm?   

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

Agree both our lines need to take care of business, the O line has been on a roll and the D line getting a lot of pressure on QBs and locking down the run. I expect Leonard to get another punch fumble this week. Another key is how many holding penalties the O line gets called for, we have had a lot of long runs called back and some very ticky tack calls (Reed especially, they look clean by NFL standards).

 

We really didn't get a lot of pressures on Allen. PFF over stated our DL pressures, and Buf's OL graded out in the mid 80s in pass pro. PFF has a lower bar on pressures than some other stat sites. But one that I follow had Allen with his second lowest pressure total on the year. Only KC pressured him less. And with PFF grading their OL mid 80s, well, that's pretty good. 

 

And TB's OL is much, much, much..... better lol. So while I agree our DL needs to do good this weekend, I think it's 10x more important that our OL do great. 

[TheNextGM]

A 180 from what we have been seeing, against Tampa it’ll be Wentz and the Wrs that have huge games.

 

Wentz, Pittman and MAC have huge games, Colts win 36-28

[Four2itus]

From Profootballnetwork

 

"The Colts are one of the most consistent teams in the NFL regardless of location. They rank third in the NFL in points per play (.447), and that metric doesn’t shift more than .005 at home or on the road.

The Buccaneers have found plenty of success, posting a league-high .465 points per play in 2021. The difference lies in their home/road splits. Tampa Bay’s points per play skyrocket to .563 at home but plummet to .362 on the road. This is the case for each team’s points allowed per play this season as well. The Colts are allowing .355 points per play at home, as opposed to only .364 on the road. As you can tell, there isn’t a major difference between the numbers."

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

From Profootballnetwork

 

"The Colts are one of the most consistent teams in the NFL regardless of location. They rank third in the NFL in points per play (.447), and that metric doesn’t shift more than .005 at home or on the road.

The Buccaneers have found plenty of success, posting a league-high .465 points per play in 2021. The difference lies in their home/road splits. Tampa Bay’s points per play skyrocket to .563 at home but plummet to .362 on the road. This is the case for each team’s points allowed per play this season as well. The Colts are allowing .355 points per play at home, as opposed to only .364 on the road. As you can tell, there isn’t a major difference between the numbers."

 

Nice stuff.

I used to post this kind of stuff, but only confused folks when I did it in bullet form.

If you like this kind of stuff (to dig a bit deeper), check out 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/team-stats/

 

The bolded is why I said up above I think we have a good chance if our O is balanced. Still worried about our zone regardless (Brady flashbacks)

 

[C_Lew]

I picked us to lose by 1-6, but it’s really a 50/50 toss-up in my mind. I know we’re fully capable of winning, but as others have mentioned, Tampa Bay’s large arsenal of weapons will be a real test for our secondary and linebackers. I think the keys to the game will be how well Wentz plays and how many turnovers we can cause. If we protect the ball, turn them over 2+ times, and Wentz plays a great game, then we will win. 
 

If we do lose, though, I don’t think it will be devastating since it’s an NFC team. I think we can still make the playoffs with 2 more losses, especially if those 2 losses are to TB and Arizona. That said, hopefully we give Brady a good old fashioned beat down! 

[Chucklez]

A win in this game MAY just about give us the wiggle room to lose to the Pats, but we really do ideally need to be winning all our AFC games left. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1. Colts by 1-6

 

2. Brady will have more passing yards

 

3. Taylor will have more rushing yards

 

4. Wentz will get sacked more

 

5. Colts D will get more turnovers

 

We will win this game and it may be by more than 6 points but I have 1-6 by Colts because Brady will keep it close. Entering last weeks game, the national media and sports talk radio all picked Buffalo. Most said we had very little chance to win that game. Many in here also took Buffalo, some in blowout fashion. As a fan I fear Brady who wouldn't? but  the Bucs as a team do not. They have lost to some mediocre teams this year and aren't as good as last year. We should realistically be 8-3 and everyone knows it, we gave the Ravens game away and Wentz who has played good all year, played poorly at the end of the game vs Tennessee, they won in OT because of it. Once again almost everyone in the media and on sports talk radio are taking the Bucs and I love it. I love being the underdog. Vegas only has the Bucs favored by 3, they know this could go either way. 

 

I will say this, if we win this game we may run the table and i really believe that. Taylor is unstoppable. Looking at our schedule the Pats scare me the most because of their defense and Belichick + Mac Jones is playing great for a rookie.

[gspdx]

Just checked - https://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2021&wk=12

 

Looks like a lot of the country will be getting this game - inlcuding here in Spokane.

[JediXMan]

I think our passing game takes over this game. They have one of the best DL and run D in the league. If they sellout to stop the run we have the weapons to beat them in the air. Their secondary is spoty and can be attacked. Not to mention the Bucs are 2-3 on the road. Bucs have also been careless with the ball especially on the road should be a fun one go Colts!!!

[chad72]

15 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

We really didn't get a lot of pressures on Allen. PFF over stated our DL pressures, and Buf's OL graded out in the mid 80s in pass pro. PFF has a lower bar on pressures than some other stat sites. But one that I follow had Allen with his second lowest pressure total on the year. Only KC pressured him less. And with PFF grading their OL mid 80s, well, that's pretty good. 

 

And TB's OL is much, much, much..... better lol. So while I agree our DL needs to do good this weekend, I think it's 10x more important that our OL do great. 

 

Yes. 100% agree.

 

Keep Wentz upright, control TOP and move the chains and keep Brady on the sidelines. If you give Brady 10 possessions, he will score on 6 and given the Bucs excellent red zone TD % (around 65%), you are looking around 4 TDs and 2 FGs at least for 34 points. However, if you give them 8 possessions, a good chance it is 3 TDs and a FG or two, which is the type of game you want against them, with them scoring 24-27 points or less. Our offense is our best defense for clock control and fresh legs for our D.

 

If we let them hit 30 plus points, we are not controlling tempo and Wentz is taking more risks, IMO. Football is a complementary game and it would be fair to conjecture that if we had let the Bills score 30 plus, that would have taken us out of the run game a tad bit too. 

 

 

[chad72]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

1. Colts by 1-6

 

I felt the same way too. We have been on the wrong end of 1 score games so far this year (Rams, Ravens, 2nd Titans game). The odds are, we will get 1 right and hopefully this is the one. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

I felt the same way too. We have been on the wrong end of 1 score games so far this year (Rams, Ravens, 2nd Titans game). The odds are, we will get 1 right and hopefully this is the one. 

I know the Jags are a bad team but the odds gave us that one too. Things to tend to even out. If Lawrence doesn't fumble they may have got lucky and beat us 24-23. They had the ball in our territory with time to run 3 or 4 plays. All it would've took was 1 big pass play to get them in position for a last second win. I think we win this something like 27-24.

[Four2itus]

Granson coming out party!

[krunk]

I think we have a pretty good chance based on what ive seen from the bucs the last 2 games. Should be a tight contest

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Yes. 100% agree.

 

Keep Wentz upright, control TOP and move the chains and keep Brady on the sidelines. If you give Brady 10 possessions, he will score on 6 and given the Bucs excellent red zone TD % (around 65%), you are looking around 4 TDs and 2 FGs at least for 34 points. However, if you give them 8 possessions, a good chance it is 3 TDs and a FG or two, which is the type of game you want against them, with them scoring 24-27 points or less. Our offense is our best defense for clock control and fresh legs for our D.

 

If we let them hit 30 plus points, we are not controlling tempo and Wentz is taking more risks, IMO. Football is a complementary game and it would be fair to conjecture that if we had let the Bills score 30 plus, that would have taken us out of the run game a tad bit too. 

 

Yup. Anyway you look at it, anyway you can limit Brady's time on the field is a huge help. 

Like I said, I think their D is good, but overrated. And that's because Brady helps his D.

Our O needs to do that same thing this weekend. Our O can make our D over rated lol... 

While I think curb stomping the Bills was a phenomenal win, not sure I'd call it signature. Might be. But beating TB and the Bills two weeks in a row, would definitely be signature. Give me some good balance on O, and I think we can do it. 

[coltsfeva]

22 hours ago, gspdx said:

Just checked - https://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2021&wk=12

 

Looks like a lot of the country will be getting this game - inlcuding here in Spokane.

We in the Philadelphia are will be “enjoying” the Eagles/ Giants……yuck! 
At least there’s Buffalo Wild Wings!

My biggest concern is; who will cover Gronk?

[2006Coltsbestever]

14 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

Yup. Anyway you look at it, anyway you can limit Brady's time on the field is a huge help. 

Like I said, I think their D is good, but overrated. And that's because Brady helps his D.

Our O needs to do that same thing this weekend. Our O can make our D over rated lol... 

While I think curb stomping the Bills was a phenomenal win, not sure I'd call it signature. Might be. But beating TB and the Bills two weeks in a row, would definitely be signature. Give me some good balance on O, and I think we can do it. 

I would easily call last weeks win a signature win. Eventhough Josh Allen has struggled some this year, many had him in the top 5 QB's of the league before the season and he still top 10 by anyone's eye test. Their defense was among's league best coming into last weeks game as well. They were 6-3 coming in and at home. Everyone in the media picked them to beat us but many even said they would beat us by at least 2 score's. The ESPN predictor had them favored 76% to our 24% and they 7 were point favorites. I am not letting the media off the hook here and saying that wasn't signature, that no doubt signature.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would easily call last weeks win a signature win. Eventhough Josh Allen has struggled some this year, many had him in the top 5 QB's of the league before the season and he still top 10 by anyone's eye test. Their defense was among's league best coming into last weeks game as well. They were 6-3 coming in and at home. Everyone in the media picked them to beat us but many even said they would beat us by at least 2 score's. The ESPN predictor had them favored 76% to our 24% and they 7 were point favorites. I am not letting the media off the hook here and saying that wasn't signature, that no doubt signature.

 

I said before the game (in the matchup thread) that I though Buf's D was overrated. Similar to what I said about the Bucs. Both teams have made teams one dimension due to their Os. I think Allen is really good, but I don't see him as elite. 

 

It was a great win. Loved it. And great great win for Reich. Just didn't feel like a signature win type to me. Subjective for sure, but to each their own. Beating TB and Brady feels more signature to me the more I think on it. We haven't beat Brady since 2009 IIRC.

 

Full disclosure, I set a pretty high bar for signature wins. Normally I reserve it for playoff wins, or monster wins in key situations or against rivalries. Just not sure Buf meets that. TB kinda does. But to each his own.