Manusky: Yay or Nay?

[Dustin]

Here are some stats:

 

In weighted DVOA, the Colts defense finished:

 

2012: 29th

2013: 19th

2014: 11th

2015: 10th

 

In PPG:

 

2012: 24.2 (21st)

2013: 21 (10th)

2014: 23.1 (19th)

2015: 25.5 (25th)

 

YPG: 

 

2012: 374 (26th)

2013: 357 (20th)

2014: 342 (11th)

2015: 379 (26th)

 

[bababooey]

NAY NAY

[ColtRider]

Too many mistakes over & over each week. It's come to a head IMO. Either change discipline tactics or go get them elsewhere.

[SteelCityColt]

Unsure... the defense has had flashes throughout his tenure and he's certainly not had all that much premier talent to work with. 

 

Losing Jones who was meant to be the man on the D-Line was a blow and we lost some key pieces this season on top of that (Anderson and Adams spring to mind). 

 

I'd be interested to know if he was Grigson or a Pagano hire, memory says he was Pagano's.

[COLTS449]

Definitely NAY!!!!!!!!

[MFT5]

bye

[CR91]

17 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Here are some stats:

 

In weighted DVOA, the Colts defense finished:

 

2012: 29th

2013: 19th

2014: 11th

2015: 10th

 

In PPG:

 

2012: 24.2 (21st)

2013: 21 (10th)

2014: 23.1 (19th)

2015: 25.5 (25th)

 

YPG: 

 

2012: 374 (26th)

2013: 357 (20th)

2014: 342 (11th)

2015: 379 (26th)

 

 

DVOA is the most important stat points and yards given up is misleading. as I said a number of times this was the best defense we've had in a long time. their a big reason we won 8 games. they kept us in games when our offense couldnt move the ball at all. this was also a very improved run defense course the stats wont show it, but if you actually watched the games, youll see how better they were this year

[21isSuperman]

I'm unsure.  I love his aggressive approach to the game and how we blitz frequently (it's a really nice change from the Dungy days).  But there are a lot of questions about what he's doing (eg. the middle of the defense is always wide open, horrible matchups with our LBs on TEs).  I think he's done a pretty good job with the talent he has.  I'm not sure who the best candidates are for a DC position

[Vinatieri4]

I don't think he's the greatest, but talent wise our defense wasn't bad this season when we had Anderson healthy.. Keep in mind, he's never really had a chance to use Jones, and Anderson together, if we get a solid number 2 corner, our defense will be average.  That is alright with me as long as our offense is elite. 

[jet1968]

I would say his status is questionable. Of course one of the best defenses is a great offense and we know how that went.

 

[cbear]

25 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Here are some stats:

 

In weighted DVOA, the Colts defense finished:

 

2012: 29th

2013: 19th

2014: 11th

2015: 10th

 

In PPG:

 

2012: 24.2 (21st)

2013: 21 (10th)

2014: 23.1 (19th)

2015: 25.5 (25th)

 

YPG: 

 

2012: 374 (26th)

2013: 357 (20th)

2014: 342 (11th)

2015: 379 (26th)

 

 

Can you explain dvoa? 

[Narcosys]

I guess I'll be the lone retain.  I think our D has done well for the most part.  I've already logged the posts of those that can explain it more eloquently.

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

DVOA is the most important stat points and yards given up is misleading. as I said a number of times this was the best defense we've had in a long time. their a big reason we won 8 games. they kept us in games when our offense couldnt move the ball at all. this was also a very improved run defense course the stats wont show it, but if you actually watched the games, youll see how better they were this year

 

Points per game however is an overwhelming metric though. Our points per game is definitely skewed by the Steelers and Jaguars blowout losses, however it is also a measure of "when things unravel, we don't hang around on the road" characteristic we have seen from this team's defense. 

 

To become a good playoff team, our D has to travel well on the road and that is the part that needs to be worked on. I do think "more disruptive guys in the DL" philosophy has given this D a new direction to build upon. No more big guys necessarily being preferred, more athletic and disruptive even if slightly smaller seems to be the right direction to go now.

[Dustin]

1 minute ago, cbear said:

 

Can you explain dvoa? 

 

Here's the full explanation: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

 

TL;DR: It essentially takes every variable into account. Things like down, distance, score, quarter, situation etc,,,

 

That's standard DVOA. Weighted-DVOA takes into account the strength of your opponents. 

[jameszeigler834]

20 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

Unsure... the defense has had flashes throughout his tenure and he's certainly not had all that much premier talent to work with. 

 

Losing Jones who was meant to be the man on the D-Line was a blow and we lost some key pieces this season on top of that (Anderson and Adams spring to mind). 

 

I'd be interested to know if he was Grigson or a Pagano hire, memory says he was Pagano's.

If he is back I would make this a make or break year for him.

[cbear]

I must admit I've never been a big fan of Manuski.  Maybe I was expecting something different but when he came over along with Pagano I kept hearing about how this defense would resemble the Ravens, at least in scheme. To me that meant not just blitzing, but exotic blitzes, exotic looks etc. We blitz a lot, but frankly even me as an uneducated fan usually guesses correctly as to what we're about to do. I can only imagine what the other team already knows is coming. I wish we would get more creative.

 

I know he said during the first year that he couldn't run the type of schemes and calls due to his personnel, but I didn't see much change through the years. 

[CR91]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Points per game however is an overwhelming metric though. Our points per game is definitely skewed by the Steelers and Jaguars blowout losses, however it is also a measure of "when things unravel, we don't hang around on the road" characteristic we have seen from this team's defense. 

 

To become a good playoff team, our D has to travel well on the road and that is the part that needs to be worked on. I do think "more disruptive guys in the DL" philosophy has given this D a new direction to build upon. No more big guys necessarily being preferred, more athletic and disruptive even if slightly smaller seems to be the right direction to go now.

 

points given up can be from a lot of things, short fields, being on the field too long, defensive TD, special teams td. its not just the defensive being marched on every time their on the field. dont get me wrong, im not saying defense doesnt have problems because it does, however its not as bad as every that just listens to ESPN and NFLN and dont watch a single make it out to be

[pgt_rob]

Nay, time to change while we can. Does anyone think Pagano and Irsay will want to change DC though? It would "hurt continuity."

[Dustin]

Just now, pgt_rob said:

Nay, time to change while we can. Does anyone think Pagano and Irsay will want to change DC though? It would "hurt continuity."

 

Nah, I'm under no illusion that Pagano will fire him.

[Valpo2004]

36 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Points per game however is an overwhelming metric though. Our points per game is definitely skewed by the Steelers and Jaguars blowout losses, however it is also a measure of "when things unravel, we don't hang around on the road" characteristic we have seen from this team's defense. 

 

To become a good playoff team, our D has to travel well on the road and that is the part that needs to be worked on. I do think "more disruptive guys in the DL" philosophy has given this D a new direction to build upon. No more big guys necessarily being preferred, more athletic and disruptive even if slightly smaller seems to be the right direction to go now.

 

I think this is what turns me against him.  Over the years how many times has a team hung 40 points or more on the Colts?  Way too freaking many.  

 

Not sure why but in a lot of games over the years our Defense has looked like a D3 college defense trying to stop pros.  

 

It's been particularly bad against the Steelers who have for 2 years in a row now made our defense look absolutely pathetic.  I realize the Steelers have a good offense but their performance against them has just been too terrible.

 

[Gavin]

Depends on who we can get to replace him of course but the much bigger issue currently is personnel, Until Toler is no longer our #2 corner the team will be a bit handicapped on defense, I also don't think Vontae had near the year this year that he did the previous year. Adams and Lowery played well overall in my opinion. We also have to find an ILB that moves better laterally that can cover.

 

I'm on the fence but I voted keep for the time being

[ColtStronger]

20 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

DVOA is the most important stat points and yards given up is misleading. as I said a number of times this was the best defense we've had in a long time. their a big reason we won 8 games. they kept us in games when our offense couldnt move the ball at all. this was also a very improved run defense course the stats wont show it, but if you actually watched the games, youll see how better they were this year

Yep!!  However, some people will argue because they only see the numbers above.  Personally, I'm not a huge fan of Manusky, but he really hasn't had much to work with, so I'm fine either way. 

[needanoline63]

I kno with more player talent, it would make manusky look better. But I'm saying nay. We can find someone better

[21isSuperman]

12 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

Here's the full explanation: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

 

TL;DR: It essentially takes every variable into account. Things like down, distance, score, quarter, situation etc,,,

 

That's standard DVOA. Weighted-DVOA takes into account the strength of your opponents. 

The consistent improvement in weighted DVOA ranking is promising

[DougDew]

I can't see anything that Manusky does that can't be fixed by having better talent.  The FA acquisitions have been mediocre players designed to switch from the Tampa 2 to the 34, and that transition through the roster is about complete.  Also, the DL was poorly constructed in these early years, with quicker more explosive players now being on board.  The offense suffered too many three and outs this year to really give the statistics a whole lot of meaning, IMO.

 

Lets see what happens after a couple of playmakers are added...currently there really aren't any...and what the new OC can do to control the ball more.  I really think there have been too many moving parts to the analysis to give Manusky a fair shake, IMO.

[ColtRider]

You're only as good as your defense when it comes to winning Championships. That's the bottom line. I agree with the notion that this year has improved. But to what extent? As I stated earlier about mistakes happening over & over each week, it comes down to discipline. I get the injury bug, that's a factor. Freeman & Jackson played very admirably. Lead the team with a combo of over 300  and some odd tackles. But, it's the penalty factor that grinds my gears waaaay too often, and the fact that most tackles aren't considered by the non-takedowns by first hits.

 

Gotta get this fixed ASAP, or go get the ASAP somewhere else.

[MB-ColtsFan]

I honestly don't think he has been terrible this year.  He has made some game decisions that made me

scratch my head, like going to zone when I thought we were playing well with man-to-man, not playing

corners up on third and short (though not as much as previous years), and not having Vontae follow the

best receiver.  Given all of that, if I had to choose, I would still have to say let him go.

 

Just not sure who out there plays a 3-4 and is available that is better at the moment?  Help me out, folks.

 

[MPStack]

Not much talent on defense so its hard to say! Even with Anderson I thought the front three was average at best. Factor in a couple aging LB`s and safety, what did he have to work with?

[Devildog]

This defense would be much better without Toler.

[Goatface Killah]

I don't think Manusky has done that bad at all. I also like weighted dvoa as a bar to measure the competence of coaching. It factors in so much more than just PPG or YPG.

 

Give the guy a few legit pass rushers and I think everything comes together really well. I like our d line if we can keep Art Jones and Henry Anderson healthy. I like our inside LB's and our secondary as well. The only thing I don't like is our pass rushers. Outside of Mathis we are very thin there and Robert needs to be a situational guy going forward.

[bababooey]

6 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Not much talent on defense so its hard to say! Even with Anderson I thought the front three was average at best. Factor in a couple aging LB`s and safety, what did he have to work with?

Langford was above average, Parry was a rookie, Anderson (another rookie) was above average when healthy.

[throwing BBZ]

If nothing else, we got some very good play against the run this season from our interior 3 lineman.
Even after the loss of Anderson and A Jones.
 We got some pressure from Langford and a little from Anderson.
With a couple of true athletic rush linebackers... and a couple athletic ILB`ers, we good be really good as a front 7. lol
 In Grigs we... oh we are so...

[RomanianColtsFan]

Manusky is a good coordinator, getting a lot of the players he has, so definitely keep him.

[ztboiler]

Case for Manusky: The Colts have won close games at an alarming rate these last 4 years, including by making defensive plays and getting stops that contributed or made the difference with the game on the line.  Much moreso than we are accustomed to.

 

Case against Manusky:  Even with consideration for lack of defensive playmakers, there are obvious gameplanning holes in Manusky's body of work against opponents with scheme thinkers that have the personnel to pose matchup issues and a failure to counterpunch in those same games.

 

I think Manusky probably stays given the current trend toward continuity, and I like the adjustment we made in scheme on the DLine this year, but I've seen enough to believe that we lack more than just talent to become the defensive monster that Pagano has described.

 

Specifically, the adaptation of our coverage schemes, or lack there of, give me pause that Manusky may not provide the thinking that is right to defend today's NFL.

[lollygagger8]

 

Here's what I wrote earlier: 

 

A look inside Manusky's awesome play book:

Let's put DQ in coverage and leave Freeman in the box! 

Let's put Butler on the outside when Toler goes down! 

Let's run the same stunt blitz over and over. The other team will never figure it out! 

Let's drop DE's into coverage! We'll totally fool the QB! 

Let's play zone when our CB's are better at press man!

Let's only run one safety blitz per 3 games because it actually worked 3 games ago!

Let's not exploit the brand new opposing lineman that just replaced the starter that went down!

 

 

[lollygagger8]

 Follow

Zak KeeferVerified account‏@zkeefer

Rough numbers for #Colts: Greg Manusky's defense ranks dead last in the NFL in total yards. 29th vs. pass, 23rd vs. run, 30th in sacks.

 

• RETWEETS19
• LIKES13
• 

8:57 AM - 27 Oct 2015

 

Rough October

 

[cbear]

53 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

Here's the full explanation: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA

 

TL;DR: It essentially takes every variable into account. Things like down, distance, score, quarter, situation etc,,,

 

That's standard DVOA. Weighted-DVOA takes into account the strength of your opponents. 

 

Thanks.  

[OffensivelyPC]

14 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Case for Manusky: The Colts have won close games at an alarming rate these last 4 years, including by making defensive plays and getting stops that contributed or made the difference with the game on the line.  Much moreso than we are accustomed to.

 

Case against Manusky:  Even with consideration for lack of defensive playmakers, there are obvious gameplanning holes in Manusky's body of work against opponents with scheme thinkers that have the personnel to pose matchup issues and a failure to counterpunch in those same games.

 

I think Manusky probably stays given the current trend toward continuity, and I like the adjustment we made in scheme on the DLine this year, but I've seen enough to believe that we lack more than just talent to become the defensive monster that Pagano has described.

 

Specifically, the adaptation of our coverage schemes, or lack there of, give me pause that Manusky may not provide the thinking that is right to defend today's NFL.

Yeah, that's the real issue I have with Manusky.  The Steelers game was probably the worst case against Manusky from that perspective, and it happened twice.  We had our hands full to begin with, but we basically went in and did the same darn thing we did last year.  Might as well have just saved everyones legs on both teams and replayed the first game and call it a day.

[B~Town]

My big knock on Manusky is match ups he allows teams to get the match ups they want way to often . I have saw our OLB get matched up with teams top targets way to much . Watching Mathis and Werner trying to stop wheel routes is something I hope to see a lot less of in the future .

[OffensivelyPC]

As far as replacing Manusky.  I'd like to see who's available before we axe him.  He's at least average to above average.