Dear Frank,

[SC-Coltsfan]

I love your aggressive coaching, but if we end of with a 4th and goal in the 1st qtr and there is no score, please kick a FG and take the points. I just can't get that Cincy game out of my head. Thank you.

 

Sincerely,

 

Most of Colt nation (I'm sure some will still go for it)

[SteelCityColt]

Haven’t examined the probabilities I’ve decided to not go for this topic.

[throwing BBZ]

12 minutes ago, SC-Coltsfan said:

I love your aggressive coaching, but if we end of with a 4th and goal in the 1st qtr and there is no score, please kick a FG and take the points. I just can't get that Cincy game out of my head. Thank you.

 

Sincerely,

 

Most of Colt nation (I'm sure some will still go for it)

 

With no Jurrel Casey, and If Kelly is playing, and i am on the one, an EASY choice.
We are better now, and this isn't the Jags.

[HarryTheCat]

13 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

With no Jurrel Casey, and If Kelly is playing, and i am on the one, an EASY choice.
We are better now, and this isn't the Jags.

 

31 minutes ago, SC-Coltsfan said:

I love your aggressive coaching, but if we end of with a 4th and goal in the 1st qtr and there is no score, please kick a FG and take the points. I just can't get that Cincy game out of my head. Thank you.

 

Sincerely,

 

Most of Colt nation (I'm sure some will still go for it)

Fourth and goal at the nine, kick it. Fourth and goal at the one, go for it. Just don't fumble it out of the end zone for a touchback.

[coltsva]

Center, left guard, left tackle all 1st round picks. Run the ball in behind them.

[SteelCityColt]

My tea's gone cold I'm wondering why I
Got out of bed at all
The morning rain clouds up my window
And I can't see at all
And even if I could it'll all be gray
Put your picture on my wall
It reminds me, that it's not so bad
It's not so bad

 

[#12.]

It's like anything - you have to have a feel for the game.  What's the weather like?  Is Gabbert playing?  Does it feel like points will be at  premium.  Early on in a playoff game, which this is, I would be inclined to kick it and get on the board.  As the game progresses and you get a feel for the game, that could change.

[Bravo]

I like the aggressive play calling whether it paid off or not.

 

No sense in reminiscing too much. Colts have had plenty of chances, if they would have got those conversions then it would be totally different obviously.

[Fat Clemenza]

Dear Frank,

Thank you for instilling a killer attitude into a young team with an unproven roster, which is now one of the hottest teams in football.

 

Thank you for hiring and retaining one of the best coaching staffs this town has ever seen.

Thank you for keeping Andrew Luck upright a priority, and being the first coach to do so.

 

Thank you for all of the thousands of right decisions you've made this season, and bringing us to the brink of the playoffs.  Your fans might not have confidence in you, but it is clear your players have confidence in you and in themselves and that's what matters most.

 

Sincerely,

Appreciative Colts fans

 

 

[Smonroe]

3 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

My tea's gone cold I'm wondering why I
Got out of bed at all
The morning rain clouds up my window
And I can't see at all
And even if I could it'll all be gray
Put your picture on my wall
It reminds me, that it's not so bad
It's not so bad

 

 

Thats not Frank, that’s Marshall, isn’t it?

[Smonroe]

35 minutes ago, Fat Clemenza said:

Dear Frank,

Thank you for instilling a killer attitude into a young team with an unproven roster, which is now one of the hottest teams in football.

 

Thank you for hiring and retaining one of the best coaching staffs this town has ever seen.

Thank you for keeping Andrew Luck upright a priority, and being the first coach to do so.

 

Thank you for all of the thousands of right decisions you've made this season, and bringing us to the brink of the playoffs.  Your fans might not have confidence in you, but it is clear your players have confidence in you and in themselves and that's what matters most.

 

Sincerely,

Appreciative Colts fans

 

 

 

I’d change, or add, GM to that line.  I don’t want to reopen old wounds, but why in Oden’s  (or whoever your god is) name couldn’t they figure that out since 2012?

 

[NorthernBlue]

3 hours ago, #12. said:

It's like anything - you have to have a feel for the game.  What's the weather like?  Is Gabbert playing?  Does it feel like points will be at  premium.  Early on in a playoff game, which this is, I would be inclined to kick it and get on the board.  As the game progresses and you get a feel for the game, that could change.

This. Those fourth down decisions against Jacksonville weren't bad because they failed. They were bad because you knew the Jags weren't gonna score very many points anyways we weren't moving the ball well.

 

If it seems like Sunday is gonna be another low scoring defensive affair, then you gotta take whatever points you can get. If it feels like the offense is moving well though and the Offensive line is blocking, then I'll have no problem if they risk it on 4th and shorts. 

[Four2itus]

Dear Frank. You are the man. I support every decision you make. 

[stitches]

5 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Haven’t examined the probabilities I’ve decided to not go for this topic.

Pulled the fake punt here, I see...  

[BOTT]

Dear Frank

 

Tell OP to go suck an egg.

[WoolMagnet]

I was impressed he punted there in the 4th with 6 or 7 mins left.

 

Hopefully also seeing the Steelers go on 4th and lose to Saints will slow 4th down Frank's roll as well.

Getting your 1st points , especially on the road, is not mportant to relax and settle into the game.  It can take  tremendous pressure off the D.

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 hours ago, BOTT said:

Dear Frank

 

Tell OP to go suck an egg.

I just spit my drink out, this is just so funny. Great stuff  

[compuls1v3]

32 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

I was impressed he punted there in the 4th with 6 or 7 mins left.

 

Hopefully also seeing the Steelers go on 4th and lose to Saints will slow 4th down Frank's roll as well.

Getting your 1st points , especially on the road, is not mportant to relax and settle into the game.  It can take  tremendous pressure off the D.

I too was impressed at the call, and even more impressed our defense held up. 

[zibby43]

Dear Frank,

 

Thank you for allowing me to care about the outcome of a Colts football game (from a non-draft perspective) for the first time in what feels like a long time.

 

Signed,

 

My entire family

[Myles]

Dear Frank.   

 

Great job this season.   However, I have 1 request.   Please use your big QB to sneak on 3rd and shorts (or 4th).

 

The Analytics love this premise because … it works. In fact, it works exceedingly well. Every study of quarterback sneaks that’s been conducted has proved they are significantly more successful than other short-yardage plays. ESPN research from 2017 showed that every NFL team had a higher conversion rate on quarterback sneaks than on other short-yardage plays. Pro Football Focus research from February showed that quarterback sneaks are 13 percent more successful than other types of runs from the opposing 1-yard line, and 20 percent more successful than other third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 plays. Football Outsiders research from 2016 showed that quarterback sneaks are more successful than every other type of play on third down and fourth down. Advanced Football Analytics research from 2011 showed that a QB sneak on third-and-2 is more likely to be successful than a running back carry on third-and-1. The Wall Street Journal reported in October that every quarterback in the league with at least 10 career sneak attempts has a success rate of 75 percent or better. A 2015 Yale research paper stated that QB sneak attempts are worth nearly twice as much as non-sneaks by a metric called estimated points added.

Universally, these studies give QB sneaks a success rate between 70 and 90 percent. Nothing else in football has a 70 to 90 percent success rate!

[BOTT]

9 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

I was impressed he punted there in the 4th with 6 or 7 mins left.

 

Hopefully also seeing the Steelers go on 4th and lose to Saints will slow 4th down Frank's roll as well.

Getting your 1st points , especially on the road, is not mportant to relax and settle into the game.  It can take  tremendous pressure off the D.

It was 4th and 10. I doubt the analytics say "go for it" in that situation.

 

and frank shouldn't slow,his role.

[Valpo2004]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Dear Frank.   

 

Great job this season.   However, I have 1 request.   Please use your big QB to sneak on 3rd and shorts (or 4th).

 

The Analytics love this premise because … it works. In fact, it works exceedingly well. Every study of quarterback sneaks that’s been conducted has proved they are significantly more successful than other short-yardage plays. ESPN research from 2017 showed that every NFL team had a higher conversion rate on quarterback sneaks than on other short-yardage plays. Pro Football Focus research from February showed that quarterback sneaks are 13 percent more successful than other types of runs from the opposing 1-yard line, and 20 percent more successful than other third-and-1 or fourth-and-1 plays. Football Outsiders research from 2016 showed that quarterback sneaks are more successful than every other type of play on third down and fourth down. Advanced Football Analytics research from 2011 showed that a QB sneak on third-and-2 is more likely to be successful than a running back carry on third-and-1. The Wall Street Journal reported in October that every quarterback in the league with at least 10 career sneak attempts has a success rate of 75 percent or better. A 2015 Yale research paper stated that QB sneak attempts are worth nearly twice as much as non-sneaks by a metric called estimated points added.

Universally, these studies give QB sneaks a success rate between 70 and 90 percent. Nothing else in football has a 70 to 90 percent success rate!

 

This. 

 

I don't have a problem with going for it on 4th and 1 when we are on the opposing 40 or further.  But don't get cute.  QB sneak.  Andrew is big enough he can push the pile a bit and plus the QB sneak for 1 yard is really hard to stop.  

 

All you essentially have to do is snap the ball and get your QB to fall forward.  It's not 100%, nothing ever is but it's the most likely play to succeed.  

[Myles]

4 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

This. 

 

I don't have a problem with going for it on 4th and 1 when we are on the opposing 40 or further.  But don't get cute.  QB sneak.  Andrew is big enough he can push the pile a bit and plus the QB sneak for 1 yard is really hard to stop.  

 

All you essentially have to do is snap the ball and get your QB to fall forward.  It's not 100%, nothing ever is but it's the most likely play to succeed.  

We are on the same page here.   That same article I posted from talks of recent decreases in QB sneaks even though it goes against the success rates.   I believe Frank is an analytics guy, so I've been confused this season by the play calling on very short 3rd and 4th downs.  

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/11/15/18096707/quarterback-sneak-short-yardage-play-calling-analysis

[luv_pony_express]

21 hours ago, SC-Coltsfan said:

I love your aggressive coaching, but if we end of with a 4th and goal in the 1st qtr and there is no score, please kick a FG and take the points. I just can't get that Cincy game out of my head. Thank you.

 

Sincerely,

 

Most of Colt nation (I'm sure some will still go for it)

 

1) Every play call is unique to its own situation and context.  And there’s a lot of context to consider.

 

2) I can think of 2 or 3 pivotal play calls this year that should’ve gone the other way, given the situation and context of that moment.

 

3) Hindsight is 20/20.  Foresight, not so much.

 

I’m sure Frank has learned a lot this year.  But, that said, I always prefer aggressive to conservative.  Boldness has long been one of Bill Belichick’s calling cards.  And, while it hasn’t always paid off for him, he’s wearing a lot of rings.

[chad72]

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=TM&season=2018&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

 

Giants are 19th in total offense in the league, better than I thought they were.

 

Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars are 23rd, 26th and 27th respectively. The strength of those teams are obviously on defense. If we get ahead against those teams, we should be able to control tempo. We did that vs the Cowboys, could not do squat versus the Jaguars, the difference being the Jaguars game was on the road. Along those lines, the Titans game is going to be tough if we do not manage to get a lead by the 4th quarter.

[coltsva]

Dear Frank,

       Please see Myles post.

 

Sincerely,

QHOP

[WoolMagnet]

1 hour ago, BOTT said:

It was 4th and 10. I doubt the analytics say "go for it" in that situation.

 

and frank shouldn't slow,his role.

4th and 1, 4th and 10..... its all the same for Frank.

 

[LockeDown]

Q: Hey, Andrew.  Do you mind if I push you in the back on the QB sneak?

Andrew: No , man.  That’s fine. 

[luv_pony_express]

One other thing to add to this is that tough play calls are a bit like gasoline prices.  Few people notice gas prices when they’re low or declining.  But lots of people notice high or rising gas prices, and often in a visceral way.

 

Football fans tend to remember the tough play calls that didn’t work out as intended more than the ones that did.  That’s why a coach like Belichick has more latitude among fans than his peers to gamble.  What fan is going to question a coach who has won 5 Super Bowls?

 

Frank Reich doesn’t have 5 SBs.  But he has had a phenomenal first year at an NFL helm....despite some predictable second-guessing on play calls that didn’t work out as we Colts partisans wanted.

[Superman]

49 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

One other thing to add to this is that tough play calls are a bit like gasoline prices.  Few people notice gas prices when they’re low or declining.  But lots of people notice high or rising gas prices, and often in a visceral way.

 

Football fans tend to remember the tough play calls that didn’t work out as intended more than the ones that did.  That’s why a coach like Belichick has more latitude among fans than his peers to gamble.  What fan is going to question a coach who has won 5 Super Bowls?

 

Frank Reich doesn’t have 5 SBs.  But he has had a phenomenal first year at an NFL helm....despite some predictable second-guessing on play calls that didn’t work out as we Colts partisans wanted.

 

Fans tend to focus on the results and judge with the benefit of hindsight. As coaches in several sports move toward more probabilistic decision making, there are more and more opportunities for fans to be critical of "aggressive" decisions that don't immediately result in successful outcomes. Place one of those aggressive decisions in a high leverage situation, and the criticism multiplies by a thousand, and the decision seems to never be forgotten.

 

It's also a typical fallacy to claim that one decision is responsible for the outcome of an entire game (or season).

[GoColts8818]

Dear Frank,

 

Thank you.

[luv_pony_express]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

.It's also a typical fallacy to claim that one decision is responsible for the outcome of an entire game (or season).

 

Well, that’s true.  There are lots of plays that went a certain way in Super Bowl XXV that, had they gone another way, might have changed the outcome.

 

But one play that definitely would’ve changed the outcome — given the situation at that moment — was Norwood’s missed FG.  He hits it, the Bills win.  But he didn’t hit it and they lost.

 

However, you’re right that it would be a fallacy to say that it was the only play that mattered in determining the outcome.

[braveheartcolt]

Punt and take the tie. Full stop. Bring out the 'it changed the locker room mentality' and I will say poppycock. Not because I care about the call, I just wanted to say poppycock. Twice.

[Four2itus]

3 minutes ago, braveheartcolt said:

Punt and take attempt the tie. Full stop. Bring out the 'it changed the locker room mentality' and I will say poppycock. Not because I care about the call, I just wanted to say poppycock. Twice.

I don't know how many times I have said this, but there is no guarantee that those FG's would have been made. To assume that, is well......poppycock. 

 

Gee, that is fun to say. 

[braveheartcolt]

2

4 hours ago, Four2itus said:

I don't know how many times I have said this, but there is no guarantee that those FG's would have been made. To assume that, is well......poppycock. 

 

Gee, that is fun to say. 

Wrong game sir.

[Crunked]

Dear Frank,

 

Just go 1-0 this week

 

signed,

This Fan

 

P.s. don't use the ice cube talk again lol

[Rackeen305]

On 12/25/2018 at 11:55 AM, SC-Coltsfan said:

I love your aggressive coaching, but if we end of with a 4th and goal in the 1st qtr and there is no score, please kick a FG and take the points. I just can't get that Cincy game out of my head. Thank you.

 

Sincerely,

 

Most of Colt nation (I'm sure some will still go for it)

This decision has earned the team a W for patience.

[Superman]

16 hours ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

Well, that’s true.  There are lots of plays that went a certain way in Super Bowl XXV that, had they gone another way, might have changed the outcome.

 

But one play that definitely would’ve changed the outcome — given the situation at that moment — was Norwood’s missed FG.  He hits it, the Bills win.  But he didn’t hit it and they lost.

 

However, you’re right that it would be a fallacy to say that it was the only play that mattered in determining the outcome.

 

Every game has big plays. It's easy to look at the biggest play right at the end of the game and say 'that's why we lost.' It's fair in many cases, but it's usually an overreaction to the most recent and most memorable plays in the game.

 

In the "Wide Right" game, Norwood missed a 47 yarder at the end of the game, and that sucks. Obviously, if he makes that kick, the Bills most likely win. But did you know the Bills' high powered offense didn't convert a single third down until that final drive? The Bills had less than 20 minutes time of possession in that game. The Giants were 9/16 on third down and dominated the clock.

 

My point is the Bills were off their game in many ways, and while one kick at the end of the game would have won the game, putting the outcome of the game squarely on the results of that one play isn't reasonable. Like you said, it wasn't the only play that mattered in determining the outcome.

 

Applied to the Colts/Texans game, acting like Reich's decision is the reason we lost the game is problematic, IMO. We had to rally to force OT because we started the game like it was a walk through, not a divisional rivalry game. Our defense was atrocious almost all day, and even after the failed 4th down they couldn't put up any resistance.

 

I just think it's time to move on from the 4th down decision, whether we make the playoffs or not. Over the course of the season, there were a ton of plays and 3 or 4 different games that we blew that could have secured us the division. We just got shut out by the Jags, for instance. The 100 penalties against the Eagles were killer. But all anyone wants to talk about is 'Reich should have taken the tie!' As if that's the primary reason we aren't in control of the division. It's not.