I would rather be 6th seed than win the AFC South and here is why

[The Fish]

44 minutes ago, buccolts said:

 

I get you and all, but I don't see where John tried to derail this thread.

He just expressed his opinion, which was solicited by the OP.

 

Coach speak from a fan, on a fan forum, where it's just us shooting the spit? I'll take an opinion.

Hopefully the coaches and players have that stuff on lock down- even though they admit in hindsight quite often they don't. 

 

But it's hard to derail a thread that's premise is so far fetched. The Colts aren't winning the South. To my math it's not better than a 50/50 that they get in as a 6, but at least it's on the table. 

 

[Coffeedrinker]

20 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

But it does. It changes your expectations. If you convince yourself that we are going to win every game we play until the end of time you’re going to be disappointed when it doesn’t happen. You set yourself up for an expectation that fell short and now you’re going to be dissatisfied, and express that dissatisfaction despite the fact that it was wrongly built to begin with. 

 

The cold hard facts of this situation are that there are nearly an infinite amount of variables that will influence how our season ends, and most  of them beyond our control as fans and as a team. 

 

There is simply too much that can go on between now and then to put any real stock into these outlooks and forecasts. 

I get where you are coming from and for some people that is true... we see it every year at draft time, posters become convinced that the Colts need such and such a player and immediately call it a mistake if the Colts don't draft that player.

 

But not everyone is like that.  I fully expect the Colts to win every game they play, it doesn't really change my reaction when they don't win.  And some people like to run through different scenarios.  It's not going to effect the outcome of the game nor the playoffs.  It's not the way I am a fan but it's really no different than me watching game film and developing (and sharing on this forum) a game plan on how I would run the O or the D for a particular game.  That is what I find fun about being a fan.  Other people find it fun to look at how things could play out in different scenarios.

[King Colt]

A lot of grey in the AFC playoffs like the Steelers, Ravens, Tennessee and the Colts. KC and the Chargers are tops and NE behind those two. It is impossible to pick one with 100% certainty but KC and the Chargers are very strong candidates to go to the SB and as much as I would like to see Andy Reed get the trophy I would also pull for Rivers to get his. Both deserve it.

[John Waylon]

11 minutes ago, Myles said:

Why are you talking about the Giants game?   If we lose to the Cowboys it won't matter.    You said "Looking ahead is pointless"

 

Way to go. 

 

I’m not setting lofty expectations that will end in disappointment. We will play Dallas. We will win, or we will lose. We will play the Giants. We will win, or we will lose. These things WILL happen, barring the aforementioned meteor destroying the planet. Guaranteed. 

 

There is no guarantee we will make the playoffs at all, be it as division champs or a wild card seed. 

 

We have 0 control over that at this point. So planning (and advanced planning like trying to gain some kind of edge with seeding) for it like we do is a wasted effort. It’s premature, and the odds are against it. 

 

In this situation the best thing we can do is hold our speculation to what will happen. 

[buccolts]

14 minutes ago, Calmack said:

Yeah I dont know what you're reaching at. I never said or even hinted at him derailing the thread. I simply asked a question. 

 

Sorry, it just sounded like you were miffed John, or anyone, would make such a comment, as though it didn't belong, or pooh-poohing the notion, which would be derailing.

[runthepost]

7 minutes ago, King Colt said:

A lot of grey in the AFC playoffs like the Steelers, Ravens, Tennessee and the Colts. KC and the Chargers are tops and NE behind those two. It is impossible to pick one with 100% certainty but KC and the Chargers are very strong candidates to go to the SB and as much as I would like to see Andy Reed get the trophy I would also pull for Rivers to get his. Both deserve it.

Imagine a Rivers vs Brees superbowl 

[richard pallo]

10 hours ago, John Waylon said:

We’re on to Dallas. That’s the only game that matters. 

Yes!  Focus on one at a time.  First we have Elliot then Barkley.  It's going to be a battle. 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

11 hours ago, reidaj1812 said:

If it goes like this and we are 6th seed chargers/KC will be 1st or 5th --Texans will be 3rd and Pats 2nd.

let's say that KC is 1st seed--NE 2nd seed---Texans 3rd seed-- Ravens 4th seed --ok

we would play the Texans in wildcard game

Chargers play Ravens

----Colts and Chargers Win

--Chargers play Pats---We play KC

we have had good luck with kc in the playoffs and I think the chargers will beat the pats--

 

that would make the AFC playoff game in warm climate and I would like our changes

 

thoughts

 

I'd rather have home games than warm climate road games.

[Goatface Killah]

1 hour ago, John Waylon said:

 

But it does. It changes your expectations. If you convince yourself that we are going to win every game we play until the end of time you’re going to be disappointed when it doesn’t happen. You set yourself up for an expectation that fell short and now you’re going to be dissatisfied, and express that dissatisfaction despite the fact that it was wrongly built to begin with. 

 

The cold hard facts of this situation are that there are nearly an infinite amount of variables that will influence how our season ends, and most  of them beyond our control as fans and as a team. 

 

There is simply too much that can go on between now and then to put any real stock into these outlooks and forecasts. 

What? How do you know what someone else is gonna feel about something?

 

What is your big fear? That you get it wrong? That the Colts dont make the playoffs? Ok, so then you move on with your life and start looking forward to the draft. Big deal. 

 

As far as the topic at hand, my dream scenario is to play the Patriots in NE. I think they are ripe for the picking, and beating their butt in NE after all that has happened between our teams over the years, would be the sweetest ending possible and something special we will think about 10-20 years from now. Those are the kind of wins you want to be apart of, as a player or as a fan. How could you not hope for that? Idk

[cbear]

I'm greedy so I always hope the Colts do the best in everything, win division, win sb. 

 

I also think they lose at least one of their remaining games (maybe this week) and miss the playoffs. 

 

But I do agree with the OP.  It's fun to speculate again on the playoffs.  At the outset, I wasn't expecting to be able to do that for a couple years yet! 

[John Waylon]

42 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

What? How do you know what someone else is gonna feel about something?

 

What is your big fear? That you get it wrong? That the Colts dont make the playoffs? Ok, so then you move on with your life and start looking forward to the draft. Big deal. 

 

As far as the topic at hand, my dream scenario is to play the Patriots in NE. I think they are ripe for the picking, and beating their butt in NE after all that has happened between our teams over the years, would be the sweetest ending possible and something special we will think about 10-20 years from now. Those are the kind of wins you want to be apart of, as a player or as a fan. How could you not hope for that? Idk

 

Look, I know you’ve been around here after a loss. I know you’ve seen the dumpster fires that spring up. 

 

You know now why that happens? First and foremost because people care. That’s why they’re here. They form an emotional bond with the team as a fan and they care. And that’s great. 

 

But you you know the other big reason? Because they likely built up an expectation in their own mind, and the team fell short. They expected a win. When that doesn’t happen they get frustrated and express that frustration. 

 

Expecting something within probability is fine. Like expecting the Colts to win this Sunday. Totally logical. Expecting us to score 100 points is not, and it’s really not fine to expect it. 

 

The people expecting us to be locks for the playoffs to the point of trying to position ourselves for a certain spot are going to be disappointed when we don’t make it. They are expecting something that the odds are not in our favor for. But instead of admitting that we are in a bad spot and the only thing we should worry about right now is getting out of this weekend with the win we need they are putting the cart before the horse. 

 

And if (and even more likely WHEN) we miss the playoffs in a couple weeks there are going to be disappointed people who were too busy looking ahead at stuff like this that the reality of the situation got lost on them. 

 

I’m not here trying to prevent a sea of dumpster fire posts and threads for my own well-being when that happens, I’m doing it for us all. 

[GoColtsWin]

2 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Would it not, then, be just as difficult for the Texans to beat the Colts twice?

Exactly. Like the Colts didn’t have takeaways  from this season as possible scenarios that may work to our favor in the playoffs, if we make it. The growth of the team this season has been fun to watch. Team health for the most part has been better also imo. Coaching in all phases seem to have their squads ready each week. Players are excited to play, and it shows come game day. Future looks bright. 

[Myles]

1 hour ago, John Waylon said:

 

Look, I know you’ve been around here after a loss. I know you’ve seen the dumpster fires that spring up. 

 

You know now why that happens? First and foremost because people care. That’s why they’re here. They form an emotional bond with the team as a fan and they care. And that’s great. 

 

But you you know the other big reason? Because they likely built up an expectation in their own mind, and the team fell short. They expected a win. When that doesn’t happen they get frustrated and express that frustration. 

 

Expecting something within probability is fine. Like expecting the Colts to win this Sunday. Totally logical. Expecting us to score 100 points is not, and it’s really not fine to expect it. 

 

The people expecting us to be locks for the playoffs to the point of trying to position ourselves for a certain spot are going to be disappointed when we don’t make it. They are expecting something that the odds are not in our favor for. But instead of admitting that we are in a bad spot and the only thing we should worry about right now is getting out of this weekend with the win we need they are putting the cart before the horse. 

 

And if (and even more likely WHEN) we miss the playoffs in a couple weeks there are going to be disappointed people who were too busy looking ahead at stuff like this that the reality of the situation got lost on them. 

 

I’m not here trying to prevent a sea of dumpster fire posts and threads for my own well-being when that happens, I’m doing it for us all. 

 

 

You are taking this too seriously.    There is nothing wrong with discussing hypothetical.   Just because it is being discussed has no bearing on how people really feel about the teams success.  

I would rather the Colts face the Bears in the Superbowl rather than the Saints or Rams.  

 

[Goatface Killah]

2 hours ago, John Waylon said:

 

Look, I know you’ve been around here after a loss. I know you’ve seen the dumpster fires that spring up. 

 

You know now why that happens? First and foremost because people care. That’s why they’re here. They form an emotional bond with the team as a fan and they care. And that’s great. 

 

But you you know the other big reason? Because they likely built up an expectation in their own mind, and the team fell short. They expected a win. When that doesn’t happen they get frustrated and express that frustration. 

 

Expecting something within probability is fine. Like expecting the Colts to win this Sunday. Totally logical. Expecting us to score 100 points is not, and it’s really not fine to expect it. 

 

The people expecting us to be locks for the playoffs to the point of trying to position ourselves for a certain spot are going to be disappointed when we don’t make it. They are expecting something that the odds are not in our favor for. But instead of admitting that we are in a bad spot and the only thing we should worry about right now is getting out of this weekend with the win we need they are putting the cart before the horse. 

 

And if (and even more likely WHEN) we miss the playoffs in a couple weeks there are going to be disappointed people who were too busy looking ahead at stuff like this that the reality of the situation got lost on them. 

 

I’m not here trying to prevent a sea of dumpster fire posts and threads for my own well-being when that happens, I’m doing it for us all. 

Ok, but its alright to be dissapointed. One might say it builds character. Its not fun if you dont get overly excited about wins and dissapointed about losses. 

[Myles]

21 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

Ok, but its alright to be dissapointed. One might say it builds character. Its not fun if you dont get overly excited about wins and dissapointed about losses. 

I totally agree.   Especially when the team has extreme highs and lows.    Losing to the Jags, in a 0-6 shutout) was as bad as it gets.   Everyone should have been disappointed after that.

Winning on the Road against division leader Houston should have had everyone excited.   I still think the loss to the Jags is going to keep us out of the playoffs.   That was the most disappointing game of the season for certain.   It would have made this Dallas game less important.  

[buccolts]

1 hour ago, GoatBeard said:

Ok, but its alright to be dissapointed. One might say it builds character. Its not fun if you dont get overly excited about wins and dissapointed about losses. 

 

"Overly" is where you lose me.

[MacDee1975]

I want to be 6 and play the Texans in round 1, because we are better than they are and would win the game.

[BullsColtsFan1]

I like the way you think, but we are still a ways from getting in.  I honestly don't care what seed we are as long as we get in.  It's been a great season thus far.  I hope they can finish strong with 3 straight wins and a playoff birth.  Once the playoffs get here, it's a brand new season, you never know whose going to get hot.

[jskinnz]

15 hours ago, BOTT said:

"We have good luck against KC in the playoffs"

 

solid argument.......

 

Yes - I'd like the OP to point out all the games the Colts beat the Chiefs in the playoffs that Mahomes started.

[jachba]

15 hours ago, runthepost said:

Imagine a Rivers vs Brees superbowl 

I obviously would be all for that, with Rivers on the winning side, and not just because I'm a Charger fan. Brees already has a Super Bowl ring.

[aaron11]

19 hours ago, John Waylon said:

I’m not here trying to prevent a sea of dumpster fire posts and threads for my own well-being when that happens, I’m doing it for us all. 

negative posts are not a dumpster fire. they are appropriate after losing, especially when you are 1-5 or lose 6-0

[Myles]

7 hours ago, jachba said:

I obviously would be all for that, with Rivers on the winning side, and not just because I'm a Charger fan. Brees already has a Super Bowl ring.

I'd be pulling for Brees in that one.    I don't really have anything against Rivers, but I don't think he is Hall of Fame quality.   A Superbowl win would probably get him in. 

[dodsworth]

The Chargers or Chiefs will obviously claim one of the 

wild card spots so I guess that means the Colts and everyone

else will be fighting for the remaining slot for the playoffs.

 

These next 3 games are going to be dicey.

[DalTXColtsFan]

You know, there are scenarios involving the Colts and Dolphins winning out and the Steelers, Ravens, Pats and Texans choking down the stretch that would actually put the Colts at #3 and the Pats at #6.  I'm not sure what would be more fun, one-and-doneing them out of the playoffs in the wild card round in front of THEIR fans, or OURS.

[Stephen]

On 12/11/2018 at 11:47 PM, reidaj1812 said:

If it goes like this and we are 6th seed chargers/KC will be 1st or 5th --Texans will be 3rd and Pats 2nd.

let's say that KC is 1st seed--NE 2nd seed---Texans 3rd seed-- Ravens 4th seed --ok

we would play the Texans in wildcard game

Chargers play Ravens

----Colts and Chargers Win

--Chargers play Pats---We play KC

we have had good luck with kc in the playoffs and I think the chargers will beat the pats--

 

that would make the AFC playoff game in warm climate and I would like our changes

 

thoughts

I prefer to beat the pats and chargers in route to super bowl win

[Luck is Good]

Only way Colts have a chance at the AFC South is if Texans lose today to the Jets. I have a hard time seeing Texans losing to the Jets

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Luck is Good said:

Only way Colts have a chance at the AFC South is if Texans lose today to the Jets. I have a hard time seeing Texans losing to the Jets

Texans aren't losing today, we will get in but get in as a 6th Seed, IMO.

[coltfaninnewyork]

I just want us to get in

[oldunclemark]

On ‎12‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 7:39 AM, Myles said:

I don't think the history of playing a team in the past has anything to do with now. 

 

I'd much rather have a game at home.   That Trumps all else for me.

I agree...you want a home playoff game...in January....

You don't want any part of going to some place like Baltimore or Pittsburgh

[strt182]

On 12/12/2018 at 11:33 AM, GoatBeard said:

What? How do you know what someone else is gonna feel about something?

 

What is your big fear? That you get it wrong? That the Colts dont make the playoffs? Ok, so then you move on with your life and start looking forward to the draft. Big deal. 

 

As far as the topic at hand, my dream scenario is to play the Patriots in NE. I think they are ripe for the picking, and beating their butt in NE after all that has happened between our teams over the years, would be the sweetest ending possible and something special we will think about 10-20 years from now. Those are the kind of wins you want to be apart of, as a player or as a fan. How could you not hope for that? Idk

Especially THIS YEAR after what Chris Ballard said.

[2006Coltsbestever]

As long as we get in it is a real successful season. I will be overjoyed with Playoff Football again here in Indy. I am just enjoying meaningful Football in December right now. Making the Final 12 out of 32 is a start, then Final 8, Final 4, and SB.

[Luck is Good]

Colts will make it. They’ll win out. Need help from either Ravens or Steelers. That won’t be too hard though. Steelers next two games are Patriots and Saints. Both of those games will be losses. Ravens play Chargers next week. It’s set up for the Colts. They just have to take it

[reidaj1812]

On ‎12‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 10:47 PM, reidaj1812 said:

If it goes like this and we are 6th seed chargers/KC will be 1st or 5th --Texans will be 3rd and Pats 2nd.

let's say that KC is 1st seed--NE 2nd seed---Texans 3rd seed-- Ravens 4th seed --ok

we would play the Texans in wildcard game

Chargers play Ravens

----Colts and Chargers Win

--Chargers play Pats---We play KC

we have had good luck with kc in the playoffs and I think the chargers will beat the pats--

 

that would make the AFC playoff game in warm climate and I would like our changes

 

thoughts

I posted this before we made the playoffs and it look like it has turned out this way. maybe this Is a good sign or something. I didn't know at that time that the ravens would win the division or the seeding would play out exactly this way.

[oldunclemark]

8 hours ago, reidaj1812 said:

I posted this before we made the playoffs and it look like it has turned out this way. maybe this Is a good sign or something. I didn't know at that time that the ravens would win the division or the seeding would play out exactly this way.

The problem with your thesis here is:  If we were the 3rd seed. we'd have still played Houston and now, we could be playing at home if we win and the Chargers also win.

.

If the 5-seed Chargers win at New England they get the AFC title game at home (or at least, in L.A.) As it stands now, we have no chance for a home game even if the Chargers upset New England.

 

That's why I'd have rather been the '3' seed.   The 3-seed gives you a chance for 2 home games. The 6-seed cannot play at home under any circumstances.

The 6th seed is a lottery ticket.....

   

 

[CoachLite]

1 hour ago, oldunclemark said:

That's why I'd have rather been the '3' seed.   The 3-seed gives you a chance for 2 home games. The 6-seed cannot play at home under any circumstances.

The 6th seed is a lottery ticket.....

   

 

The question hinges on how much effort it takes to overcome a home-field advantage. There is a difference between a probabilistic and frequentist view. Just making into the playoffs is a necessary first step to winning a SB, so it is more probabilistic than frequentist. IIRC, we've done this before.

[oldunclemark]

1 minute ago, CoachLite said:

The question hinges on how much effort it takes to overcome a home-field advantage. There is a difference between a probabilistic and frequentist view. Just making into the playoffs is a necessary first step to winning a SB, so it is more probabilistic than frequentist. IIRC, we've done this before.

I wish I knew what the word 'frerquentist' meant.

 

But they are a myriad (that's a good word, too) of advantages to playing at home.

Not making the playoffs is not in the equation.  So, Its the difference  between '6' and 3 road games  ...and '3'...maybe 2 of 3 at home.

I'd MUCH prefer to play at home

[chad72]

4 hours ago, oldunclemark said:

The problem with your thesis here is:  If we were the 3rd seed. we'd have still played Houston and now, we could be playing at home if we win and the Chargers also win.

.

If the 5-seed Chargers win at New England they get the AFC title game at home (or at least, in L.A.) As it stands now, we have no chance for a home game even if the Chargers upset New England.

 

That's why I'd have rather been the '3' seed.   The 3-seed gives you a chance for 2 home games. The 6-seed cannot play at home under any circumstances.

The 6th seed is a lottery ticket.....

   

 

OUM, that is true.

 

However, playoffs are about match ups and when you play a team. Playing NE in AFCCG has resulted in more losses for NE than playing them in the divisional round. However, if I had to choose, playing the Chargers on their home is not all that bad considering how they have lost 3 games at home while losing only 1 game on the road. 

 

Plus, for what it is worth, the last 2 times a #6 seed won the SB, they beat the #1 seed on the road in the divisional round (Steelers in 2005 season playoffs vs Colts, Packers in 2010 season playoffs vs Falcons), and then beat the #2 seed on the road in the championship game (Steelers beating Broncos, and Packers beating Bears). 

 

2013, 2014, 2015 all had the #1 seed beating the #6 seed on the AFC side, and 2016 had no #5 or #6 seeds win in the wild card round, and 2017 had the #1 seed beating the #6 seed on the NFC side. 

 

So, time will tell us if this is going to be a 2005 or 2010 or one of the years since 2013, where no wild card has made it to the SB.