Coffeedrinker

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Everything posted by Coffeedrinker

  1. Coffeedrinker

    Aikman Efficiency Ratings

    Some may remember but I am a big fan of the Aiman Efficiency Ratings. I think his formula does a very good job of assigning points based on the items that are very important when determine the effectiveness of an offense or defense. Anyway the past couple of years the rankings have been too depressing to post but this year the Colts are trending up on both offense and defense. Here is the link to the ratings. Keep in mind it takes until about week 4 or 5 for things to level out and really be a good snapshot of the team's efficiency. http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficiencyRatings/tabid/274/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/132/Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings-2018-As-of-Week-2.aspx
  2. Coffeedrinker

    Swoope Waived Again

    Perhaps, but Allie-Cox is already on the active roster so they didn't need to release Swoope to make room for Allie-Cox. Has anyone heard who they moved up or signed?
  3. Coffeedrinker

    Aikman Efficiency Ratings

    Here is the AER for Week 14 The Colts O has dropped over the past couple of weeks in efficiency, which is to be expected after the Jags game. They are the 7th most efficient offense at 89.8 (ranked 8th in offense by yards/game) On D they have been steadily rising, they are now 11th in the AER (11th in the NFL yards allowed as well) at 68.3. So for the Dallas I like to compare the O vs D as it relates to the AER average. Colts offense is at 89.8 which is 5.8 points above the offensive average of 84.0 The Dallas D is at 72.6 (3rd highest AER for the defense) which is 6.8 points above the average of 65.8. So this would indicate a slight edge to the Dallas D. The Colts D is at 68.3 which is 2.5 points above the average of 65.8. The Dallas O is at 81.2 (21st in the AER) which is 2.8 points below the average of 84.0. So this would indicate a pretty significant edge to the Colts D. I have to admit, I was surprised to see the Cowboys D as high as it was and to see the Cowboys O as low as it was. As most saw during the Eagles game, the Boys O is not very efficient but they do have some playmakers that can score quickly. Should be a fun game to watch.
  4. Coffeedrinker

    Deon Cain

    I've been following the draft closely since 1997 and in that time WRs have also been a crap shoot, especially at the top of the draft, even when you remove the Matt Millen factor
  5. Coffeedrinker

    Deon Cain

    He waved everyone away and let it bounce because they were short punts and it would have been difficult to run up there and try to field them. He fielded them on the bounce because they bounced right to him... (obviously I don't know for sure but as an educated guess) he would not have tried to field them if they had bounced left/right or over his head.
  6. Coffeedrinker

    Deon Cain

    The flip side of that, is that WR seems to be one of the hardest positions to draft. For example, on your list, in the last 4 years 48 WRs have been drafted in the first three rounds of the draft. I know there are no guarantees when drafting but WRs also seem to have the most "busts" or at least the most players not living up to their draft status.
  7. I get where you are coming from and for some people that is true... we see it every year at draft time, posters become convinced that the Colts need such and such a player and immediately call it a mistake if the Colts don't draft that player. But not everyone is like that. I fully expect the Colts to win every game they play, it doesn't really change my reaction when they don't win. And some people like to run through different scenarios. It's not going to effect the outcome of the game nor the playoffs. It's not the way I am a fan but it's really no different than me watching game film and developing (and sharing on this forum) a game plan on how I would run the O or the D for a particular game. That is what I find fun about being a fan. Other people find it fun to look at how things could play out in different scenarios.
  8. Would it not, then, be just as difficult for the Texans to beat the Colts twice?
  9. Coffeedrinker

    Colts Defense now ranked 11th in NFL.

    True it does provide some context. But again the flip side can also be true, to rank as high as the Colts they have to be consistently good, no? I'm not saying the Colts are a great D, a veteran, accurate QB is going to find the holes in the pass coverage. But, I also don't think you can dismiss how well the D has been playing because of the rankings of the other teams. I don't think you can say the defensive rankings are not accurate because look at how low the offensive rankings are... at least not without providing the same type of contect on the offensive rankings
  10. Coffeedrinker

    Colts Defense now ranked 11th in NFL.

    Could you not flip that around and say those teams have all played a top 11 defense in the past few weeks? I guess I don't understand how their offensive ranking over the course of the entire year somehow nullifies the Colts defensive ranking over the course of the entire year. Did not the Colts D contribute to the low offensive rankings?
  11. Coffeedrinker

    Deshaun Watson

    Good call, the blitzes were effective. One other thing the Colts did when they rushed 4, is they didn't all get bunched up in the middle and allow Watson to roll out and complete a pass. he was forced more to stay in the pocket.
  12. Coffeedrinker

    Deshaun Watson

    Weren't you two FGs short? One FG for the Colts, one for the Texans? jk kidding good call on the game.
  13. Coffeedrinker

    Dallas. How Will The Media Call The Odds On This Game?

    Dallas' oline has been a sore spot for the past few years? Dallas oline has been one of the top units the last few years. This year they are not nearly as good. Against Philly (granted a very good dline and fron 7) they (the Cowboys oline) gave up 3 sacks, 5 TFLs and 9 QB hurries (the TFLs would have been 1.5 to 2 times as high if it wasn't for Zeke.) I think the Colts will control the LOS on both the offensive and defensive sides and that with the Colts being at home are why the Colts are the early favorites.
  14. Coffeedrinker

    Why Was Jim Caldwell Fired?

    I will try to find them but they will be hard. I used to get that information from Advanced Football Analytics but they have since been purchased by ESPN and their content is not easily available. But I remember seeing it at the time (because as you can imagine it was a hot topic on the forums) the Colts' chances of winning was right around 55% (plus or minus) until Gerrad (sp?)completed that 22 yard pass. Even then the Colts chances of winning were right around 50% (perhaps slightly below if I remember correctly which is not a guarantee) because of the long FG attempt.
  15. Coffeedrinker

    Why Was Jim Caldwell Fired?

    About the same.
  16. Coffeedrinker

    Denver's 2018 draft

    If they could figure out how to get a QB in 2019 they will be tough. It's not every year when the greatest QB of all time becomes available. Maybe they are hoping the other Manning drops out of the sky for them.
  17. Coffeedrinker

    Why Was Jim Caldwell Fired?

    it was the long pass down the sideline that I was thinking of but yes it was on 1st down not 4th. And the Colts used their 1st timeout when Jax had the ball on their 23, so if they had got the interception or had stopped Jax, they would have had 2 TOs left. So, yeah with a P. Manning run offense, I'd take that situation 10 times out 10. Even with all of that, it still took a 59 yarder from Scobee to win the game (a low percentage kick Scobee was 62% from beyond 50 for his career) For all the analytics people out there, the TO gave the Colts the best chance to win the game in regulation.
  18. Coffeedrinker

    Why Was Jim Caldwell Fired?

    I didn't mean to imply you did say that... just a general "how do we(Colts fans)... yes Arians, reding some things on Mochigan football and Pep so he was on my mind.
  19. Coffeedrinker

    Why Was Jim Caldwell Fired?

    By explain you mean offer some speculation, like they fired Caldwell because no respectable DC would work for him? Easy.. Caldwell was an offensive minded HC and needed a strong, experienced DC, after Spags took the job in NO, there were none available(strong and experienced), so the Colts decided to go a different direction and get a defensive minded HC figuring he could work with a less than stellar DC and hired an experienced OC in Pep. Also, how do we know Spags turned it down because of Caldwell. Maybe he turned it down because of Grigson but the Colts couldn't fire they 1 week GM.
  20. Coffeedrinker

    Why Was Jim Caldwell Fired?

    SF did it with Jim Harbaugh. On Caldwell, I like Caldwell as a HC. The timeout in the Jets game was a bad call. The timeout in the Jags game was a good call. The jets game it gave time for the Jets to regroup and realize that the WR was open everytime down the right sideline, which they completed and then kicked the FG. After the TO in the Jags game the Colts dropped an INT and held them to a long 4th down which the Jags converted. Also, msot people don't mention it but just a couple of weeks before the Jets playoff game, against the Titans, the Colts called a TO in a very similar situation, Tenn funbled the snap Colts got the ball and won the game. As far as the comment about "no respectable DC..." that's nonsense. The Colts had Manusky and Monachino... they couldn't get a respectable DC without Caldwell either. What I don't think Caldwell was good at was developing a training camp. A great HC should develop a training camp that and instill drills that will make the strengths stronger and focus on the worst 3 or 4 weaknesses to strengthen them. I think Caldwell was good at identifying strengths and making them stronger but he was not good at identifying weaknesses and making them stronger.
  21. Coffeedrinker

    Why the penalty on Matt Adams Sunday?

    Because the refs were told to try and help Houston win the game.
  22. Coffeedrinker

    Braden Smith

    In the first game with Good at RT and Clark at LT The Colts gave up 4 sacks for 27 yards (2 of which were strip sacks), 8 TFL and 10 QB hurries. In this game with AC and Smith the Colts gave up 2 sacks for 13 yards, 3 TFL and 5 QB hurries. There was a difference of 62 pass attempts (1st game) vs 41 (2nd game) but that is not a bad stat line. Actually looking at it closer, only Nelson played in both games. Game 1. Clark, Nelson, Kelly, Slauson, Good. Game 2: AC, Nelson, Boehm, Glowinski, Smith.
  23. Coffeedrinker

    Deon Cain

    It depends on if the Colts extend Innman or not. I think 3-tech (even with the way Autry has been playing), DE, a safety and a CB are bigger priorities than a WR. But that is me.
  24. Coffeedrinker

    Deon Cain

    I think one of the big differences between Cain and some other preseason wonders like Rogers or Duron Carter and Cain is that with Cain it was the coaches and reporters talking about him... with Rogers and Carters it was the fans hyping them.
  25. Coffeedrinker

    Braden Smith

    The Colts need depth at the tackle spots I agree, but interior depth seems good at the moment, Boehm and Andrews have come in the last couple of weeks and played ok. Upgrades would be nice, but it's not urgent. Tackle is a different matter. Personally, I would not mind seeing the Colts spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on a backup LT/RT or a swing tackle.