Colts Trade for Wentz (details in first post)

[Superman]

26 minutes ago, stitches said:

Same. I like PFF generally and I think a lot of their content is very useful, especially descriptively. What I think their biggest problem is - is their failure of imagination in their predictive stuff. They have massive recency bias and they have massive blind spot for changing environments. They run their numbers, which were achieved in a certain situation and assume those numbers will project perfectly in a completely different environment, with completely different coaching and system, completely different roster. This is what happened last year too, BTW. They pronounced us taking Rivers as a huge mistake based on his form dropping off in the last year of play with the Chargers, with horrendous OLine(one of the worst things you can do to an aging immobile QB), with a roster having to make up huge deficits(compounding the bad OLine and Rivers' tendency to try to win every game with no regard to his personal stats), and with questionable offensive coaching. They couldn't even imagine how much different Rivers would look when he has time and doesn't actually have to play hero ball all the time. And this was the easiest  thing to predict. What this Colts roster was built to do and what the coaching staff's tendencies were most suited to was what Rivers in this stage of his career needed the most - protection, quick passing game, a lot of games playing with the lead, solid run game. All he needed to do use his experience and smarts to guide the ship. 

 

I think they are making the same exact mistake again and are taking too much stock in last year. Not that what happened last year can't happen again, but IMO it's not very likely and if he actually listens to Reich and executes the offense, I feel like this is an incredibly high potential move. Which is insane because just 2 years ago they were pronouncing Wentz to be the new superstar of the league. Just 1 year ago they were talking about how he dragged that injured team to the playoffs. And now... he can't play... he's the equivalent of Fitzpatrick and Dalton and Winston and MARIOTA?!?!? Like.... wth are we actually talking about here? Yeah, sure .... if you take last year as Wentz' baseline, I guess you are right, but come on... it doesn't even take that much of imagination to see what the Colts are seeing in Wentz and what they think they can get from him. PFF themselves were seeing the exact same thing just... like... the same time last year! 

 

And this all is coming from someone who still think we probably overpaid for Wentz. But IMO it's asinine thinking taking on Wentz is equivalent to taking on Mariota or Dalton. 

 

Bingo. The bolded is why I have little use for their college rankings, etc. Failure to project, or account for changed circumstances, etc. They tend to freeze players in time, when prediction is a major factor in scouting, drafting, and player acquisition.

 

They said this about Justin Herbert before the draft: There’s a lot of potential with Herbert, but to pick potential over what’s been proven isn’t the best way to go. 

 

About a rookie. Just kind of crazy to me to think that anything is proven about a draft pick, much less to be so dismissive about potential. Just as an example. None of us can know the future, but they have a particular blind spot for anything that hasn't happened yet.

 

In this case, they make little allowance for Wentz's potential to return to his previous form. Not even the MVP form of 2017, just start with the previously praised level of play in 2019. If Wentz plays that well in 2021, he's already twice as good as any of those other players, except maybe Fitzpatrick (and he's still likely to be decidedly better than Fitzpatrick). It shouldn't be hard to understand why a team would value 28 year old Carson Wentz over 38 year old Ryan Fitzpatrick, right? Or at least mention that basic fact?

 

And in the ultimate irony, they say 'if you want a previous MVP-level QB, go with Cam Newton,' even though Cam Newton won the MVP six years ago now, and looked like he can't even throw the ball anymore in 2020. So they can ignore Cam's recent performance to make their tortured point, but won't consider adjusting for Wentz's bad year? 

 

It should be obvious that the Colts anticipate Wentz playing better in 2021 than he did in 2020. If he doesn't, this trade will be bad for the team. But to analyze the trade as if it's not even a possibility -- which a lot of people have been doing, btw -- is kind of disingenuous.

[CR91]

 

[GoColts8818]

4 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Carson is a good dude no doubt.

[PrincetonTiger]

4 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

[Shive]

4 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

[danlhart87]

 

[PrincetonTiger]

4 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

 

It should be interesting 

[stitches]

This graph from Hayden Winks' Colts FA preview was interesting and I thought I'd share:

 

 

 

 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

This graph from Hayden Winks' Colts FA preview was interesting and I thought I'd share:

 

 

 

 

 

X is distance, Y is number of passes attempted? I don't get the Y. Also, this only charts depth of target, not field area, right?

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

X is distance, Y is number of passes attempted?

This is the way I'm reading it. 

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

I don't get the Y. Also, this only charts depth of target, not field area, right?

Yes, I think so. 

[Four2itus]

On 2/25/2021 at 11:57 AM, Shive said:

No way to watch that without crying. Hell, when I showed it to my girlfriend...I cried again. 

[Shive]

8 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

No way to watch that without crying. Hell, when I showed it to my girlfriend...I cried again. 

I really don't think there is. I can't tell you how many times I've watched The Office from start to finish and I'm pretty sure I cried at that moment every single time.

[King Colt]

Now that it is too late I would have preferred Alex Smith over Wentz.

[CR91]

I've never liked Alex Smith's game. He's captain check down

[csmopar]

Meh, pass.... on both

[Stephen]

20 minutes ago, King Colt said:

Now that it is too late I would have preferred Alex Smith over Wentz.

Negative 

[ReMeDy]

Hmm, Carson Wentz is 28 though. Alex Smith is 36. If it were Alex Smith, I'm not sure how many years we'd get out of him. Also, Frank Reich has experience working with Carson Wentz.

 

I still like the Carson Wentz trade better. Only thing I could see better about Alex Smith would be it gives us another chance to ask Luck in a couple years if he wants to play again once Alex Smith retires, but I doubt Luck comes back anyways.

[Colts1324]

Not even close. Alex Smith will 100% not get us to the Super Bowl. He probably would have a hard time leading us to the playoffs. Carson Wentz at least gives us a chance at both if he does in fact regain his pre 2020 form. 

[Dingus McGirt]

Can this thread be locked, please?

 

  

 

[jvan1973]

52 minutes ago, King Colt said:

Now that it is too late I would have preferred Alex Smith over Wentz.

Why?

[crazycolt1]

36 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Can this thread be locked, please?

 

  

 

No one is forcing you to read it is there? 

[King Colt]

From Microsoft Sports:

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts took a big swing by trading for Carson Wentz for a third-round pick and a conditional second-rounder, and will now be dedicating all of their resources to helping him find his game again. But there is no guarantee that will work, nor is there a guarantee Wentz will be 100 percent healthy all year given his laundry list of ailments suffered under center in the NFL. They'll want a reliable backup. They'd likely even be willing to offer a few million more than the veteran minimum for such services. Smith can offer that.

Indy is the best balance of winning and a chance to play that Smith has. If the Wentz experiment works out, the Colts will be legitimate title contenders and a Super Bowl ring is one of the few boxes Smith has yet to check in his lengthy football career. If Wentz gets hurt, it'll be Smith leading the charge. If Wentz stinks from Week 1 on and the Colts have no shot at the playoffs, there's a very good chance they bench Wentz for the final five games of the season to avoid sending Philadelphia a first-round pick instead of a second-round pick next year. Which means playing time for Smith. As close to a win-win Smith could find if he wants the best of both worlds.

[Superman]

43 minutes ago, King Colt said:

From Microsoft Sports:

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts took a big swing by trading for Carson Wentz for a third-round pick and a conditional second-rounder, and will now be dedicating all of their resources to helping him find his game again. But there is no guarantee that will work, nor is there a guarantee Wentz will be 100 percent healthy all year given his laundry list of ailments suffered under center in the NFL. They'll want a reliable backup. They'd likely even be willing to offer a few million more than the veteran minimum for such services. Smith can offer that.

Indy is the best balance of winning and a chance to play that Smith has. If the Wentz experiment works out, the Colts will be legitimate title contenders and a Super Bowl ring is one of the few boxes Smith has yet to check in his lengthy football career. If Wentz gets hurt, it'll be Smith leading the charge. If Wentz stinks from Week 1 on and the Colts have no shot at the playoffs, there's a very good chance they bench Wentz for the final five games of the season to avoid sending Philadelphia a first-round pick instead of a second-round pick next year. Which means playing time for Smith. As close to a win-win Smith could find if he wants the best of both worlds.

 

So Smith wants to play, and he wants a chance to win. So he should sign with a team where his best chance of playing is if the team benches their starter at the end of the season because they're not going to make the playoffs... ???

 

I'd love to have Alex Smith as our backup, but I don't think this is even close to the kind of situation he'll be looking for. I think San Francisco, potentially Houston, the Jets, Dolphins, Broncos, Bears, all offer better opportunities for Smith to start. And there are a ton of teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations in 2021, including teams from that list. 

 

If he wants to be a legitimate veteran backup on a good team, knowing that the better the team does, the less likely it is that he'll actually see the field, the Colts would be a great fit. But I don't think that's what he wants.

 

And that's before we even talk about the money.

[PRnum1]

On 3/2/2021 at 12:10 PM, King Colt said:

From Microsoft Sports:

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts took a big swing by trading for Carson Wentz for a third-round pick and a conditional second-rounder, and will now be dedicating all of their resources to helping him find his game again. But there is no guarantee that will work, nor is there a guarantee Wentz will be 100 percent healthy all year given his laundry list of ailments suffered under center in the NFL. They'll want a reliable backup. They'd likely even be willing to offer a few million more than the veteran minimum for such services. Smith can offer that.

Indy is the best balance of winning and a chance to play that Smith has. If the Wentz experiment works out, the Colts will be legitimate title contenders and a Super Bowl ring is one of the few boxes Smith has yet to check in his lengthy football career. If Wentz gets hurt, it'll be Smith leading the charge. If Wentz stinks from Week 1 on and the Colts have no shot at the playoffs, there's a very good chance they bench Wentz for the final five games of the season to avoid sending Philadelphia a first-round pick instead of a second-round pick next year. Which means playing time for Smith. As close to a win-win Smith could find if he wants the best of both worlds.

 

I disagree with this assessment completely.  There is ZERO chance Wentz is benched no matter how bad he is.

 

The contract reads like a 2 year deal and Wentz may need the full 2 years so we can see how good he can be.

 

I think its going to take a little time.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Wentz NJ mansion is on the market now.

 

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/platform/amp/2021/3/4/22313517/carson-wentz-new-jersey-home-for-sale-eagles-trade-colts-quarterback-philadelphia-nfl-news-qb-nj

[NewColtsFan]

53 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

 

I disagree with this assessment completely.  There is ZERO chance Wentz is benched no matter how bad he is.

 

The contract reads like a 2 year deal and Wentz may need the full 2 years so we can see how good he can be.

 

I think its going to take a little time.

Wentz may ir may not get benched for performance.   I’m in the camp that would say it’s highly unlikely....

 

But....

 

The other key issue regarding Wentz that can’t be avoided is getting injured.  He does have a considerable injury history.   So, if he gets hurt, whoever the backup is will get a look.  Depending on the injury, maybe a long look.   It has to be a consideration for the decision on the eventual backup. 

[crazycolt1]

34 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Wentz NJ mansion is on the market now.

 

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/platform/amp/2021/3/4/22313517/carson-wentz-new-jersey-home-for-sale-eagles-trade-colts-quarterback-philadelphia-nfl-news-qb-nj

One thing Wentz will find out is the cost of living is softer on the pocketbook than living in New Jersey. 

 

[crazycolt1]

15 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Wentz may ir may not get benched for performance.   I’m in the camp that would say it’s highly unlikely....

 

But....

 

The other key issue regarding Wentz that can’t be avoided is getting injured.  He does have a considerable injury history.   So, if he gets hurt, whoever the backup is will get a look.  Depending on the injury, maybe a long look.   It has to be a consideration for the decision on the eventual backup. 

It seems there are a few who don't think about Ballard covering the back up QB position and how important it is. 

If it is Eason he will need all the work that is possible. Even if it's someone else he has to make himself more valuable. 

[NewColtsFan]

18 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

One thing Wentz will find out is the cost of living is softer on the pocketbook than living in New Jersey. 

 

I’m 100 percent sure this is true....

 

That said...   I was stunned at home much you can buy in NJ for so little?!   7400 square feet on 11 acres for $1.7m?!?   That number would more likely to be $11.7 mill or $21.7 mill here in SoCal.   At least!   Maybe more!   It’s insane here!

 

Not for nothing...  but on one of my favorite episodes of an HGTV Show called “My lottery Dream Home” was about an unemployed handyman from Indianapolis.  Colts fan.   Wins $1 mil on a scratcher.   He wants to spend $150-200k.   All three properties were very nice.   But one was spectacular!   The land was one of the prettiest properties I’ve ever seen.  A small forest around the home.  A beautiful creek that ran thru the property.  It had a charming bridge and even a screened-in gazebo...  just beautiful!  About 2000 sq ft.  3+2.    Couldn’t have been nicer.   About 30 minutes to the North East of Indianapolis in the country side.  If I was rich (Which I’m NOT!) I’d have bought it on the spot!   But it showed how much you could buy there for very little!   Wow!

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I’m 100 percent sure this is true....

 

That said...   I was stunned at home much you can buy in NJ for so little?!   7400 square feet on 11 acres for $1.7m?!?   That number would more likely to be $11.7 mill or $21.7 mill here in SoCal.   At least!   Maybe more!   It’s insane here!

 

Not for nothing...  but on one of my favorite episodes of an HGTV Show called “My lottery Dream Home” was about an unemployed handyman from Indianapolis.  Colts fan.   Wins $1 mil on a scratcher.   He wants to spend $150-200k.   All three properties were very nice.   But one was spectacular!   The land was one of the prettiest properties I’ve ever seen.  A small forest around the home.  A beautiful creek that ran thru the property.  It had a charming bridge and even a screened-in gazebo...  just beautiful!  About 2000 sq ft.  3+2.    Couldn’t have been nicer.   About 30 minutes to the North East of Indianapolis in the country side.  If I was rich (Which I’m NOT!) I’d have bought it on the spot!   But it showed how much you could buy there for very little!   Wow!

Just think of the house he could custom build in Indiana for 1.7 million bucks. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

In another article it says he bought it for 950k. Reading the description on the house I am surprised he got that’s nice of a house in NJ for that. I guess with it being kind of in the country on farmland my be why it isn’t as much as I thought. It says the house was redone so I bet he bought it and fixed it up. Might be why he  got it at a lower price. It’s goegeous.

[danlhart87]

20 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Don't take for granted what is said by anyone or tweeted as the truth. 

Just because you read or heard it does not make it fact. 

In Foshinator We Trust 

 

[PRnum1]

On 3/1/2021 at 3:33 PM, Superman said:

 

X is distance, Y is number of passes attempted? I don't get the Y. Also, this only charts depth of target, not field area, right?

That is strange. How does one throw 0.04 or 0.06 passes ?

[Dogg63]

40 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

That is strange. How does one throw 0.04 or 0.06 passes ?

I took it to be similar to batting average - where 0.06 represents how far 6 of every 100 of his throws went.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[iuswingman]

On 3/1/2021 at 3:39 PM, stitches said:

This is the way I'm reading it. 

Yes, I think so. 

Since it starts with a negative number, it would have to be distance from line of scrimmage rather than distance of throw.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This video has a video of Wentz house for sale. The entire inside. What a cool house. I love the rustic feel of this house.

 

 

[King Colt]

To all the authorities on QBs here what round was Brady drafted in and what QB was drafted in the same draft as P Manning that was declared to lead the SD Chargers to glory? What is known by posters here about the QBs open to trade & free agency looks a lot like this >>>>>>>> 0.

[crazycolt1]

11 minutes ago, King Colt said:

To all the authorities on QBs here what round was Brady drafted in and what QB was drafted in the same draft as P Manning that was declared to lead the SD Chargers to glory? What is known by posters here about the QBs open to trade & free agency looks a lot like this >>>>>>>> 0.

So this comment makes you the authority of what? 

Insulting anyone you can? 

[2006Coltsbestever]