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40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yup, in 2014 it was the Luck show. That year would have been scary if he had today's OL and running game.

 

I disagree on having a bad OC. Given the limitations Pep had that year, it's a wonder we did as well as we did and won the AFCS.

wentz did the same thing in 2019 look at the eagles injuries all practice squad wrs  and horrible beat up line / running game .  wentz put the team on his back to go close to 30 touchdowns 7 picks and made the playoffs

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I am never playing poker with Ballard. My god that's a steal.

Long time Eagles fan, here is my rundown on Carson Wentz. I'll start with Wentz the person/teammate. Through 2018 he was widely considered a great guy, great teammate, hard worker. Then out of t

From Adam Schefter: Philadelphia has agreed to trade Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could turn into a firs

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1 minute ago, coming on strong said:

wentz is not a colt until march 17  that is against the rules of nfl .   wentz is choosing to come early because he hates philly and i dont blame him .

Yeah, that thought crossed my mind that rules may have prohibited it. 

 

I'm sure he's happy to start a new life with his young family in a place like Indiana.  Rivers was.  House hunting for the Wentz' is in order I'm sure.

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

So in short, given the very similar QB stats, similar D rank, yet far worse OL and running game.... And some of the #s can be explained by scheme difference.

 

It's very hard for me to say he had better O coaching in 2018.

 

If anything, it would suggest that Pep did the same with far less, which would logically suggest Pep did better. 

 

To the bolded, I think that's primarily because we have very different grades on Reich's coaching. We also appear to have different grades on Pep's coaching.

 

"Far less" is also a stretch. For one, Luck was fully healthy in 2014, not playing himself into game mode. The OL was better in 2018, outside of the first six weeks of the season, when the OL struggled with injuries and position switches. The receiving corps was a push; if anything I give the edge to 2014. RBs were better in 2018.

 

And Pep's scheme and play calling exacerbated the weaknesses of the roster in 2014. That's the primary reason for the lack of efficiency. 

 

The 2014 offense was productive because of Luck and TY making big plays. 

 

Quote

Dungy is also a big fan of Pep, and said he's the guy that deserves a HC shot more than anyone else in the league when talking on the topic of diversity.

 

I appreciate Dungy's role in Colts history. I'm not all that big a fan of his viewpoints or recommendations. 

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13 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

I find that hard to believe for a guy that was drafted 2 overall.  I would imagine most teams had coach or GM there

It's fact. There was a blizzard or something that kept most coaches away.

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11 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

wentz did the same thing in 2019 look at the eagles injuries all practice squad wrs  and horrible beat up line / running game .  wentz put the team on his back to go close to 30 touchdowns 7 picks and made the playoffs

Yup. Wentz still had a good OL overall though in 2019. They still graded out 1st IIRC, or at least top 5. I'd say that CW's 2019 was similar to AL's 2018 in some ways. Good OL, not great pass catchers, etc.. 

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19 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:
57 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

LOL. Pederson was the only NFL coach at Wentz's pro day. He was also the play caller. 

I find that hard to believe for a guy that was drafted 2 overall.  I would imagine most teams had coach or GM there

Actually, due to snow storms, Hue Jackson was the only NFL head coach at Wentz's pro day. Scouts from an additional 17 teams were there as well.

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5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

To the bolded, I think that's primarily because we have very different grades on Reich's coaching. We also appear to have different grades on Pep's coaching.

 

"Far less" is also a stretch. For one, Luck was fully healthy in 2014, not playing himself into game mode. The OL was better in 2018, outside of the first six weeks of the season, when the OL struggled with injuries and position switches. The receiving corps was a push; if anything I give the edge to 2014. RBs were better in 2018.

 

And Pep's scheme and play calling exacerbated the weaknesses of the roster in 2014. That's the primary reason for the lack of efficiency. 

 

The 2014 offense was productive because of Luck and TY making big plays. 

 

I appreciate Dungy's role in Colts history. I'm not all that big a fan of his viewpoints or recommendations. 

I think the 2018 narrative that Luck was rusty, etc.. is pretty soft. He came out of the gate tossing for a lot of yards, and had arguably his best game vs Houston (in a loss) early. One could also say that taking 2017 off refreshed his body overall. There's simply a lot of competing context on that topic. If you look at his early stats/games in 2018, sure he had some low yardage games vs good Ds, but he also had high yardage games too, and also had low yardage games late in the season when the rust fell off. 

 

"Far less" is not a stretch when talking OL or running game. The OL rank delta is huge, and Mack/Hines vs Richardson isn't even a debate. 

 

Can you expand on Peps scheme and play calling exacerbating the weakness on the roster? Given we had more yards, more wins, more ANY/A, just not buying that argument on the surface. I think the efficiency questions in general are innate if you compare any deeper passing game vs dink/dunk. Any deep scheme is likely to have a lower completion %, and other efficiency stats than a conservative dink dunk O.

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8 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

Actually, due to snow storms, Hue Jackson was the only NFL head coach at Wentz's pro day. Scouts from an additional 17 teams were there as well.

Yup, and I found another that said 14 teams where there. I saw a thing on ESPN or NFL.com that talked about Pederson being thankful for the Blizzard and that he was one of the few there. I also found an article from ESPN saying similar to the one you linked.

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10 minutes ago, #12. said:

Sounds like Frank was heavily involved.

 

 

 

This is really cool. Not only to have had Reich coach him but to also have been involved in the scouting process is pretty neat. We should feel good about this. Very fortunate to have had Reich in on the evaluation process also.

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Can't wait for the With the Next Pick series.   Should be a whole episode on the Wentz negotiations/search for a QB.  Maybe we'll get a hint of what was going on with Stafford and of any possible communications with Luck. 

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23 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

 

I hope that's not really his real right arm.  If so, he spent a lot of money on needlework for something that looks like a bad fake-tat sleeve.   LOL.

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10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I hope that's not really his real right arm.  If so, he spent a lot of money on needlework for something that looks like a bad fake-tat sleeve.   LOL.

It’s not a tat. Can’t wait to see a blue camo one.

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13 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

They are paying 20+ million to wentz

That has nothing to do with whether they want to give up a high pick.  I'll bet you that during the days that this deal went down this stuff was discussed with Wentz and his agent where they knew it was conditional and that it might impact things if his play wasn't at a certain level.

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1 minute ago, Boondoggle said:

That has nothing to do with whether they want to give up a high pick.  I'll bet you that during the days that this deal went down this stuff was discussed with Wentz and his agent where they knew it was conditional and that it might impact things if his play wasn't at a certain level.

There will be no QB competition.   Wentz is the starter.   If he is horrific Eason might get the nod

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7 hours ago, Colts1324 said:

I thought the Colts were not allowed to be in contact with Wentz until the start of the new year? March 10th(I believe)

Colts can have him in for a physical, not much else...

maybe a clandestine dinner at St. Elmo ???

they got a secret back door to a private basement dining room.

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4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm a fan of Luck, just don't see him on the level as Manning (not controversial), and not a fan of the timing of his departure (I'm not alone). 

 

As far as best year, I think it was 2014. As far playing shape, he had plenty of good games early, and IMO, his early season game vs Houston was his best of the year. 

 

Luck was healthier in 2014.    But he wasn't better.    And I think most all of the stats would say so.

 

And I have no problem with anyone thinking Manning was better.     I actually agree with that view.

 

And I've said it ever year I've been a member here.    This is not a late opinion of mine.    I said it in 2012, Luck would never, ever be as great as Peyton.     But, I'd add, he didn't have to be as great.    He just had to be the best Andrew Luck he could be.    And I don't think we ever came close to seeing that.    He didn't have enough support around him for most of his time.   He dragged lesser teams to more success than most any other quarterback might have.    And by the time he got a better team around him,  he was beat up in 2018,  and we all know the rest of the story.

 

I'll share one story that should give this discussion about the strength of Luck's arm some needed context.    In week 3 of the 2018 season, in a road loss in Philly,  Luck got pulled on the last play of the game.   A Hail Mary.    Frank pulled Andrew and put in Brissett to throw a pass that would travel roughly 55 yards.   That's it.  Luck couldn't make that pass in late September.    That should end the discussion right there.

 

All of the great stats that Luck threw for that first half of 2018 was Frank's system.  Mostly very short passing.  Very dink and dunk.   Short pass and good run after the catch.    As a fan,  you could see Luck's arm strength improve as the season progressed.    We talked about it here back then.   His arm wasn't ready in the summer.   He played very limited in the pre-season.   And I believe he was on a pitch count in practice during the week.   He used the season to get his arm back to strength.    But by the stats you normally love to point to,  Luck's best season, by far, was 2018.   I think that year was just a hint of what we might've seen if Luck had remained healthy.   I'm sorry that never happened.

 

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12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Luck was healthier in 2014.    But he wasn't better.    And I think most all of the stats would say so.

I listed the stats above. He had more yards in 14, more wins, better ANY/A, higher TD%. At best it's a wash. Factor the he was playing with the 17th ranked OL (instead of the 3rd ranked in 2018), and he had Mack/Hines vs Richardson, I'd say he was better in 2014. A lot of stats were near same. The areas that were slightly better in 18 (completion %, PR, QBR), can be argued as a product of a dink/dunk O.  So we can agree to disagree if you want to ignore. 

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

And I have no problem with anyone thinking Manning was better.     I actually agree with that view.

 

And I've said it ever year I've been a member here.    This is not a late opinion of mine.    I said it in 2012, Luck would never, ever be as great as Peyton.     But, I'd add, he didn't have to be as great.    He just had to be the best Andrew Luck he could be.    And I don't think we ever came close to seeing that.    He didn't have enough support around him for most of his time.   He dragged lesser teams to more success than most any other quarterback might have.    And by the time he got a better team around him,  he was beat up in 2018,  and we all know the rest of the story.

 

I'll share one story that should give this discussion about the strength of Luck's arm some needed context.    In week 3 of the 2018 season, in a road loss in Philly,  Luck got pulled on the last play of the game.   A Hail Mary.    Frank pulled Andrew and put in Brissett to throw a pass that would travel roughly 55 yards.   That's it.  Luck couldn't make that pass in late September.    That should end the discussion right there.

Everyone remembers the sub lol... Pointing to that is pretty irrelevant. A Hail Mary is nothing but a deep toss up. And a 55 yard one is just a crap shoot. Everyone knows JB has one of the strongest arms in the league, maybe the strongest. On a 55 yarder, you're not going for accuracy, just an extremely long toss up. Not using Luck in that situation really isn't something that said Luck wasn't Luck.

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

All of the great stats that Luck threw for that first half of 2018 was Frank's system.  Mostly very short passing.  Very dink and dunk.   Short pass and good run after the catch.    As a fan,  you could see Luck's arm strength improve as the season progressed.    We talked about it here back then.   His arm wasn't ready in the summer.   He played very limited in the pre-season.   And I believe he was on a pitch count in practice during the week.   He used the season to get his arm back to strength.    But by the stats you normally love to point to,  Luck's best season, by far, was 2018.   I think that year was just a hint of what we might've seen if Luck had remained healthy.   I'm sorry that never happened.

If you look at his passing charts, you'll see had 20+ shots early on in 18.

And again, the stats are listed above, and do not point to "by far"... 

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think the 2018 narrative that Luck was rusty, etc.. is pretty soft. He came out of the gate tossing for a lot of yards, and had arguably his best game vs Houston (in a loss) early. One could also say that taking 2017 off refreshed his body overall. There's simply a lot of competing context on that topic. If you look at his early stats/games in 2018, sure he had some low yardage games vs good Ds, but he also had high yardage games too, and also had low yardage games late in the season when the rust fell off. 

 

"Far less" is not a stretch when talking OL or running game. The OL rank delta is huge, and Mack/Hines vs Richardson isn't even a debate. 

 

Can you expand on Peps scheme and play calling exacerbating the weakness on the roster? Given we had more yards, more wins, more ANY/A, just not buying that argument on the surface. I think the efficiency questions in general are innate if you compare any deeper passing game vs dink/dunk. Any deep scheme is likely to have a lower completion %, and other efficiency stats than a conservative dink dunk O.

 

I never thought I'd have to defend the idea that a QB who missed a season and barely played in preseason might be rusty in his first few weeks. Especially after we all watched him play.

 

Until that Week 4 game in 2018, Luck was rarely attempting passes more than 20 yards down the field. Ten attempts out of 124 passes. He threw the ball a lot early in the season, but we couldn't run, and we were playing from behind. It was a dramatic contrast between Luck's playing style prior to 2018. He had 8 picks in his first 6 games, and 7 picks in his final 10; 11 sacks out of 18 total in those first six games. He played better after Week 6. For some reason, he wasn't as sharp in the first part of the season. 

 

What Pep had to work with in 2014 wasn't far less than what Reich had to work with in 2018. The OL and RBs were worse, the pass catchers were probably better, the QB was better. You're acting like Pep had one hand tied behind his back.

 

Pep ran a hybrid vertical/WCO passing attack that didn't have a well defined identity. He stressed vertical passing and power running, with a bad OL. It was a big play offense that struggled if Hilton got doubled. Luck averaged 2.68 seconds per pass attempt, and 61.5% of his attempts took more than 2.5 seconds. He was pressured on 36.2% of his dropbacks, and sacked on 11% of those pressures, with a 74.8 passer rating.

 

In 2018, the Colts emphasized getting the ball out more quickly, and once the offense found a rhythm and a consistent OL lineup, things started clicking. Luck's average time to throw was 2.44 seconds, and only 51.1% of his attempts took more than 2.5 seconds. He was pressured on 29.5% of his dropbacks, and sacked on 9% of those pressures. And the protection got significantly better after the first six games; they went from allowing 16 pressures/game down to 12.2 pressures/game in the last ten games.

 

In 2014, Luck's yards/attempt (raw and adjusted), yards/game and TD % where than in 2018. But in 2018, his style of play was more efficient, less reliant on big plays, and took some pressure off the OL and off Luck himself. His completion %, INT %, sack %, and total turnovers were better in 2018. The connection between the downfield style of play, at which Luck excelled, and the greater yardage numbers seems obvious.

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Been in the hospital had not heard about this .  I'm really excited to get Wentz I did not think it would happen Chris Ballard is awesome . 

And with Frank Reich as his coach with the team we have I believe the COLTS are on the right track . This upcoming season is gonna be awesome can't wait to see what Ballard does with this draft .

 

Chris Ballard is gonna show Ryan Grigson what a competent GM does he will revitalize this QB whereas Ryan Grigson's biggest accomplishment was to destroy his first round QB ,  

 

Thank you Chris Ballard you once again proved you are the many good job .:scoregood::colts:

 

 

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Great discussion regarding Luck. You guys have made your points and listed the stats etc.. So I can keep my post pretty brief. I think Luck was better in 2014 compared to 2018 but having said that I would take Frank's play calling over Pep's anyday. Luck simply had to carry the Colts in 2014 with a mediocre O.Line and no run game. Frank called plays for Luck to get the ball out quicker to protect him more. Put 2014 Luck on the 2018 team with Frank calling plays and Luck may have thrown for 50 TD's and 5000 yards. It is because physically and mentally he was 100% healthy in 2014. Was he ever 100% right mentally in 2018? Not sure - looks like he wasn't hence the retirement? and physically I doubt it either after being beat up all those years. He still played and played great in 2018 but a lot of that had to do with Reich's play calling like I said.

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I just got done listening to a locked on colts podcast with a eagles podcaster. The eagles guy said it’s bunk that he isn’t coachable. He said yes he has a alpha personality and will challenge coaches but that was something Reich loved about him when they brought him to Phili.

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5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I just got done listening to a locked on colts podcast with a eagles podcaster. The eagles guy said it’s bunk that he isn’t coachable. He said yes he has a alpha personality and will challenge coaches but that was something Reich loved about him when they brought him to Phili.

Was that the latest podcast? Because sounds like an interesting listen

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13 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

Was that the latest podcast? Because sounds like an interesting listen

 

 

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11 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Legitimate concern. But Schefter is saying Wentz and Pederson went over two months without talking last season.

 

Imagine being the starting QB, struggling most of the season, team not winning but you're still in the hunt for the division, and your offensive minded HC isn't doing whatever it takes to get on the same page with you. And he's the primary play caller.

 

And then they bench you for a rookie, and completely change the offense to accommodate him.

 

I'm not saying Wentz had no share in the blame here, he likely did. But I personally wouldn't be convinced that the staff in general would support me.

You are right when I saw that today I thought what kind of fool coach lets personal feelings get in the way of the team? Why didn't the GM and/or owner jump in and call a halt to it? What did the rest of the team think. The more I read bout Philly the happier I am I don't live there. The fans pride themselves on booing their players for the smallest reason.

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18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I never thought I'd have to defend the idea that a QB who missed a season and barely played in preseason might be rusty in his first few weeks. Especially after we all watched him play.. 

If you look at the first 4 games.

Cinci - 300+ yards, 54 attempts. 70+% - that's not rusty

atWA - low yardage, but very conservative game plan as we got up on them, and WA couldn't do anything on O.

atPhilly - IIRC, weather impacted game. Low yardage but still 40 attempts, up late, Wentz came back and beat us.

Hou - 450+ yards, 4 TDs - not rusty.

 

Game 1 and 4, you can't simply ignore. Those aren't rusty performances. Not saying he's 100%, but given those two performances, you simply can't say he "rusty". 

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Until that Week 4 game in 2018, Luck was rarely attempting passes more than 20 yards down the field. Ten attempts out of 124 passes. He threw the ball a lot early in the season, but we couldn't run, and we were playing from behind. It was a dramatic contrast between Luck's playing style prior to 2018. He had 8 picks in his first 6 games, and 7 picks in his final 10; 11 sacks out of 18 total in those first six games. He played better after Week 6. For some reason, he wasn't as sharp in the first part of the season. 

Our OL didn't gel until week 5 or 6.... Might that have something to do with his early picks? AC was out most of those games. Mack was also out early that year. 

 

Game 1, 70+%, not sharp?

Game 4, 4 TDs and 450+ yards, not sharp?

 

As far as playing from behind, we were up vs Cinci and couldn't close it out. We were up vs WA the whole game. Philly was back and forth and Wentz came back to go ahead. Houston was the only game we were really down early.

 

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

What Pep had to work with in 2014 wasn't far less than what Reich had to work with in 2018. The OL and RBs were worse, the pass catchers were probably better, the QB was better. You're acting like Pep had one hand tied behind his back.

Purely my opinion, but OL is probably the biggest factor in O success. No? You can have a good OL, and bad WRs and a QB still do good. You can have great WRs and a bad OL, and the O will be bad.

 

So let's compare...

OL - 17th in 2014, 3rd in 2018, no question better in 2018

Running game - no question far better in 2018

RBs catching - edge to 2018

TE - Slight edge to 2018, but I'd take Ebron over Fleener.

WRs - Slight edge to 2014. TY had 1000+ both years. After TY both years, 2014 had a fading Wayne and not much more. 2018 had a committee of Grant/Pascal/Inman/Rogers

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Pep ran a hybrid vertical/WCO passing attack that didn't have a well defined identity. He stressed vertical passing and power running, with a bad OL. It was a big play offense that struggled if Hilton got doubled. Luck averaged 2.68 seconds per pass attempt, and 61.5% of his attempts took more than 2.5 seconds. He was pressured on 36.2% of his dropbacks, and sacked on 11% of those pressures, with a 74.8 passer rating.

Without an OL, it was almost impossible to run. Richardson didn't help. So he was pretty much limited to passing, and the vert game. So not sure what you're saying. What were Pep's option? Do you think we win more by going dink/dunk? We won more games in 2014. We won the AFCS. We won both the WC and Div games. That's better and farther than Reich in 2018.

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

In 2018, the Colts emphasized getting the ball out more quickly, and once the offense found a rhythm and a consistent OL lineup, things started clicking. Luck's average time to throw was 2.44 seconds, and only 51.1% of his attempts took more than 2.5 seconds. He was pressured on 29.5% of his dropbacks, and sacked on 9% of those pressures. And the protection got significantly better after the first six games; they went from allowing 16 pressures/game down to 12.2 pressures/game in the last ten games.

Nobody would argue that a QBs time to throw will be shorter in a dink/dunk vs a deep scheme.

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

In 2014, Luck's yards/attempt (raw and adjusted), yards/game and TD % where than in 2018. But in 2018, his style of play was more efficient, less reliant on big plays, and took some pressure off the OL and off Luck himself. His completion %, INT %, sack %, and total turnovers were better in 2018. The connection between the downfield style of play, at which Luck excelled, and the greater yardage numbers seems obvious.

As with the above, dink/dunk is almost always more "efficient", no?

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44 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Great discussion regarding Luck. You guys have made your points and listed the stats etc.. So I can keep my post pretty brief. I think Luck was better in 2014 compared to 2018 but having said that I would take Frank's play calling over Pep's anyday. Luck simply had to carry the Colts in 2014 with a mediocre O.Line and no run game. Frank called plays for Luck to get the ball out quicker to protect him more. Put 2014 Luck on the 2018 team with Frank calling plays and Luck may have thrown for 50 TD's and 5000 yards. It is because physically and mentally he was 100% healthy in 2014. Was he ever 100% right mentally in 2018? Not sure - looks like he wasn't hence the retirement? and physically I doubt it either after being beat up all those years. He still played and played great in 2018 but a lot of that had to do with Reich's play calling like I said.

How about put 2018's OL and running game on 2014's team, which already had a better record and went farther.

2 minutes ago, Iron Colt said:

Hasn't Wentz already had a bunch of injuries and surgeries? Why isn't he sitting down to pee and retiring like Luck did at almost the same age?

I listed his injuries by year in the Meet Carson James Wentz thread.

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

How about put 2018's OL and running game on 2014's team, which already had a better record and went farther.

I listed his injuries by year in the Meet Carson James Wentz thread.

Yeah it could definitely work both ways so good point, I still like Reich's play calling better, it helps protect the QB better IMO. It is more dink and dunk but the 2014 version of Luck could do both in a great fashion (dink and dunk and throw deep with accuracy) because his arm was at 100%.

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11 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah it could definitely work both ways so good point, I still like Reich's play calling better, it helps protect the QB better IMO. It is more dink and dunk but the 2014 version of Luck could do both in a great fashion (dink and dunk and throw deep with accuracy) because his arm was at 100%.

Personally, I want balance. Balance between pass/run, and balance between dink-dunk/deep. Pep and Reich both have their schemes. Both IMO are bit more slanted than I'd like. But I think Pep's options were more limited. He had to stretch the field to win. Couldn't really run at minimum. Reich's limitations seem more self imposed. He has the OL to protect for the deep game to materialize, he just prefers dink/dunk and run heavy. And honestly, I'm fine with that so long as we can make it to the AFC championship... 

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