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Early NFL Season Win Totals -- Colts Over/Under 8.5 Wins?

Andy

By Andy
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Andy Walk On

Andy

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Vegas has released their season win totals. They have the Colts at over/under 8.5 wins. I personally think over, even if they don't get back to 11 wins. Compared to other teams, I think it's one of the better bets out there, sooooo I'll be making a few bets myself.

 

What do you guys think? Here's a list of other teams (Must have ESPN Insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9294088/nfl-dallas-cowboys-best-nfl-season-win-total-bets

 

 

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NewColtsFan Ring of Honor

NewColtsFan

Posted
Posted

Vegas has released their season win totals. They have the Colts at over/under 8.5 wins. I personally think over, even if they don't get back to 11 wins. Compared to other teams, I think it's one of the better bets out there, sooooo I'll be making a few bets myself.

 

What do you guys think? Here's a list of other teams (Must have ESPN Insider): http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9294088/nfl-dallas-cowboys-best-nfl-season-win-total-bets

 

 

Well....  if the line for the Colts is 8.5 wins,  then I'm clearly in an "over" kinda mood!

 

I see the Colts winning 10-11 games.     Best of my knowledge, 10 to 11 is more than 8.5.   

 

The Colts can win 9 games and I'd still win the bet.     That's one worth taking.

 

My wife is going to LV next week.    I might put some money down on Indy this year!     

 

Late add:    I have the Colts at 4-3 going into the break,  then losing the first game out of the break so we'd be 4-4.    But, I think we can go 6-2 in the final 8,  maybe even 7-1.     And if we go 5-3 and finish 9-7, I'd win the bet.

 

That's my thinking....

 

To be clear,  that would not make me very happy because I don't think 9-7 gets us into the playoffs.   I think 10 wins does.    So, that's the Big Picture.    10 wins and the playoffs.

 

9-7 and a winning bet (but no playoffs)  is a very poor consolation prize.

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Nadine Ring of Honor

Nadine

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Well, in all fairness, I made this thread with the intention of starting a debate over the 8.5 win total, not anything gambling related. 

 

Exactly

 

There is a difference between discussing odds and discussion of your personal gambling.

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TKnight24 Walk On

TKnight24

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Well to be honest, if we don't have this new offense down or have our stuff together by Week 3...... the odds may be Under 8 wins.

Gotta get off to a quick start. We may struggle a bit in the Raiders game since it's a new offense & a few new faces, but we'll have to get on track quickly

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Warhorse Walk On

Warhorse

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Although I have said that I would feel wonderful about another 11 win season...I would be shocked if we dont get to nine wins. With all the new additions and Andrew getting to fly with his year two experience, the only aspect that I can see as the difference in their eyes is Pagano coaching rather than Arians...and of course the tougher schedule.

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Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

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Well to be honest, if we don't have this new offense down or have our stuff together by Week 3...... the odds may be Under 8 wins.

Gotta get off to a quick start. We may struggle a bit in the Raiders game since it's a new offense & a few new faces, but we'll have to get on track quickly

I would jump on the over, but there are reasons that Vegas sets numbers and you may have hit on one. They don't build those casinos by being ignorant. They build them with the money from the ignorant.

The line will float depending on how much is bet on either side of the line. I won be surprised if it gets to 10 by the start of the season.

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Buck Showalter Walk On

Buck Showalter

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Well to be honest, if we don't have this new offense down or have our stuff together by Week 3...... the odds may be Under 8 wins.

Gotta get off to a quick start. We may struggle a bit in the Raiders game since it's a new offense & a few new faces, but we'll have to get on track quickly

Oakland will have just as many new faces, well maybe not just as many since Grigs has gone BUCK wild bringing in new talent, but Oak is rebuilding too, so could be a sloppy game, just hope Cribs doesnt go apey...

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King Colt Hall of Famer

King Colt

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Look, last year was a production of determination and high spirit but done with a bunch of guys, new to the QB and acting head coach with the media crawling all over them and they still pulled off a dream story of a season. This coming season is one year later, one year! While the schedule does not look like trouble it does look stout and steady. The Colts are a different team than in 2012 and all arrows point up. It is that simple. Slice that rookie skin off the #12 jersey, he is now a second year QB with proven abilities in the game he plays. Protect him at all costs and this team will rush to the playoff with the smell of burning rubber. The playoffs wiill be tough like they were last year but things are more clear now, the team s better now, the coach is back now and what they accomplished last year is in their hearts and minds now and will never leave. The fans will expect alot and the Colts look like they will deliver!!!!!  

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NewColtsFan Ring of Honor

NewColtsFan

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For what little it may be worth.....

 

This morning on his show, ESPN's Colin Cowherd,  who loves gambling and Vegas lines and such went through the over-under on every NFL team picking higher, lower, or pass on every team...

 

His three favorite lines...   were Detroit,  he took higher,  Cincinnati,  he took higher,   and.........

 

Indianapolis.....   and yes,  he took higher than the 8.5.     :thmup:

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dw49 Active Roster

dw49

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Posted · Hidden by Nadine, May 24, 2013 - to prevent further issues between these two
Hidden by Nadine, May 24, 2013 - to prevent further issues between these two

While we have a gambling thread opened , here's a little something for MAC and any others when I stated that it is NOT illegal to place bets on sporting events in most states. It's only the book maker that is prosecuted. I was unable to answer a long inaccurate , unfounded post by MAC. He really shouldn't infer that people are stupid when he has zero knowledge on the subject. So here ya go MAC and your drug dealer analogy you presented.

 

 

 

 

According to Chuck Humphrey, a Colorado attorney specializing in gambling law, the basic gist of the law boils down to a distinction few people know or make: the laws are different for the personmaking the bet, or the bettor, and the person taking the bet, i.e. the bookmaker or, in more informal situations, the person running a pool. "The common mistake is to assume the laws are the same for both parties," Humphrey says. The making of bets, he says, is legal (or at least isn't prosecuted) in most states, including California and New York. The taking of a bet, however, is illegal in almost all states.

That's the case with federal law, too. "There is no federal law that makes it a crime to make a bet," says Professor I. Nelson Rose, gaming law expert and author of an internationally syndicated column called Gambling and the Law. "Even if it's with an illegal bookie, the bettor is not violating a law."

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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Posted

What if it wins the division?  And then we go on to win a playoff game or two?

 

It's very possible we could have less wins than 12 and have a better season.

 

If less than 9 wins is enough for the division, then our division sucks. I can't imagine that would be the case. 

 

But even if we go 8-8 and win the division, I still envision being disappointed in our play over the course of the season, the development at quarterback, the improvement of the defense, the coaching, etc.

 

I do agree that we could have less than 12 wins and have a better season. My projection right now is 10-6, but having a more balanced and complete team than we did last year. But less than 9? I don't know, Jasper...

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Yehoodi Walk On

Yehoodi

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Posted

just doing some quick math I have them over 8.5 wins . . .

 

breaking down the season I see it as follows:

 

Wins

 

Oak, SD, Jax (2), Tenn (1), Hou (home), StL, Ariz - so 8 there

 

 

Losses  - 3

 

Hou (away), Den, 49ers

 

 

Tossups - 5

 

KC, Mia, Cinn, Tenn (1), Sea; I see them going 2-3 or 3-2, the colts have both Sea and Mia at home which should help . . .

 

 

So I see a good chance at 9 wins . . .

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MAC Walk On

MAC

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Posted

just doing some quick math I have them over 8.5 wins . . .

 

breaking down the season I see it as follows:

 

Wins

 

Oak, SD, Jax (2), Tenn (1), Hou (home), StL, Ariz - so 8 there

 

 

Losses  - 3

 

Hou (away), Den, 49ers

 

 

Tossups - 5

 

KC, Mia, Cinn, Tenn (1), Sea; I see them going 2-3 or 3-2, the colts have both Sea and Mia at home which should help . . .

 

 

So I see a good chance at 9 wins . . .

That's pretty much how I've been looking at it, and I'd consider moving the St Louis game and home Houston game into the tossup section as well.

 

While on the surface 8.5 wins seems insultingly low, they play so few games that small changes can seem like a big difference. Nine wins is only two less than last year, and considering that more than two games last year seemed to fall into the unlikely-to-be-replicated category, it's conceivable for them to win nine and STILL be significantly improved from last year. How many 11 win teams are outscored? Miami had a virtually identical points differential and won seven! It's the continued improvement of the team that's important at this point, not the specific record.

 

Of course they could win 13 as well. Houston didn't seem like a top 5 team after Cushing went down. Are they going to dominate the division or are the Colts going to legitimately step past them? How quick is KC going to turn around? Always tough at home, that game could be a nightmare. Is that scary Seattle team going to learn how to be just as scary on the road? Is Miami going to take a jump, or just fall on their faces? With that team either seems like a distinct possibility. Is Cincinnati going to take another solid step forward for the third year in a row, and take control of their division, or are they limited because Dalton may not have as big of an upside as other young QBs? Is St Louis going to take another big jump in their coaches second year? Is Arizona going to rebound under Arians - do they even have a QB?

 

In short we all "know" the Colts and are confident that they've improved, but other teams are trying to improve too. I just listed half the teams games which I'd say are impossible to be confident about one way or another ahead of time. All I know for sure is that I'm looking forward to watching and finding out. 

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Valpo2004 Active Roster

Valpo2004

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Posted

Easily over 8.5 wins.  

 

They are trying to say that a season after going 11-5 with a crappy O-line a WR#2 who couldn't catch or get open, a Rookie QB, 2 rookie TE's, running a 3-4 defense with players who had been playing in the 4-3 their whole careers, a bad saftey, and a horrible CB#2.  We are going to only win 8 games with a team that has vastly improved in all of those areas on a schedule that really isn't all that much tougher then last season's schedule.

 

There are some teams in there that I don't see us beating.  But most of the games are against teams we can beat.

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SteelCityColt Hall of Famer

SteelCityColt

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I would love to place an over on this but don't think the market exists here in the UK, just straight Superbowl/Conference winners.

Even taking off my blue tinted glasses I still can't see this team going worse than 9-7 so seems generous odds, but then again bookies aren't *s.

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