Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[krunk]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Interesting...Levis did well under pressure.  Since he has higher picks overall, maybe he was trying to be the hero on bad 2022 team.

Thats been my conclusion

[Dobbinblitz]

Adding to Richardson's accuracy woes - of the current top four QB's in the draft, Richardson had the most time to throw at 3.2 sec.  ranking 4th best this past season.

 

Will Levis had the worst pass blocking protection with 2.58 sec. to throw which ranked 93rd.

 

Young had 3.02 which  ranked  9th best.

 

Stroud had 2.92 which ranked 28th.

 

There a quite a few different factors to consider when analyzing these quarterbacks.

[stitches]

27 minutes ago, Dobbinblitz said:

Adding to Richardson's accuracy woes - of the current top four QB's in the draft, Richardson had the most time to throw at 3.2 sec.  ranking 4th best this past season.

 

Will Levis had the worst pass blocking protection with 2.58 sec. to throw which ranked 93rd.

 

Young had 3.02 which  ranked  9th best.

 

Stroud had 2.92 which ranked 28th.

 

There a quite a few different factors to consider when analyzing these quarterbacks.

Time to throw is a bit more nuanced of a stat than this. QBs who make plays out of structure often have high time to throw because they extend plays past the point at which they get pressured and they try to make plays on the move. Stroud had the best protection bar none in this draft class. I'm trying to find the exact stat, but can't seem to right now... By memory(could be wrong in the exact numbers, but the ranges I think are correct), Stroud was pressured on just 25% of his drop backs, Young, Levis and Richardson were at about 35-40% if I'm not mistaken. 

 

Edit: just found the numbers by Nov 8th... can't find them at the end of the season:

 

- CJ Stroud - under pressure on 21% of drop backs

- Bryce Young - under pressure on 32% of drop backs

- Will Levis - under pressure on 37% of drop backs

- Anthony Richardson - under pressure on 40% of drop backs

[stitches]

And here's a stat that's not great for Levis:

 

The worse thing is... the players that were bad in college in this particular one, usually stay bad in the NFL and Levis had over 25% pressure to sack convertion rate.  That's NOT good! 

 

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Levis was put into situations the NFL will put him into.  I think both Young and especially Stroud had it pretty easy in that respect.

What situations?  He chose not to play in the bowl game?  Isn't that a situation you would want your QB to be in?

 

Young and Stroud played in the bowl games

[stitches]

Just now, jvan1973 said:

What situations?  He chose not to play in the bowl game?  Isn't that a situation you would want your QB to be in?

 

Young and Stroud played in the bowl games

No idea if we should buy it, but Levis has somewhat of an excuse for missing the bowl game - he was nursing a couple of injuries throughout the season and played through them the whole season. 

 

Not sure about the reason he missed the Senior bowl. That IMo is more of a question mark, but maybe he was still recovering

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I know you don't want to have your analysis impacted by others so put it on mute here's the all 22 from the wide angle from the stands(8:48):

 

 

 

Barf

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

What situations?  He chose not to play in the bowl game?  Isn't that a situation you would want your QB to be in?

 

Young and Stroud played in the bowl games

In-game situations.  During the season. Levis got a lot of pressure.  And his receivers were covered more than Stroud's and Young's...at least that's an assumption based on his KY team playing in the SEC.  So together, he was pressured and had to throw into a window.  That's an NFL game situation.  Getting great protection and throwing to an open receiver is not as common in the NFL, IMO...which was a lot of Stroud's situations.  Young is probably in between the two in having to navigate those kinds of game situations.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

No idea if we should buy it, but Levis has somewhat of an excuse for missing the bowl game - he was nursing a couple of injuries throughout the season and played through them the whole season. 

 

Not sure about the reason he missed the Senior bowl. That IMo is more of a question mark, but maybe he was still recovering

His reason for missing was that he was dealing with various injuries all season, and reaggravated a nagging foot injury late.  So he missed his bowl and the Senior Bowl.  That's what he said, FWIW.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

And here's a stat that's not great for Levis:

 

The worse thing is... the players that were bad in college in this particular one, usually stay bad in the NFL and Levis had over 25% pressure to sack convertion rate.  That's NOT good! 

 

That's directly related to not finding open receivers, correct?. 

 

And that's either because they can't see the field, or they can't anticipate, or the receivers suck relative to the DBs.  I guess a GM has to figure out which it is.

[jonjon]

I think this is a situation (as in most) where stats fail, or at least can be misleading and are overrated. The only way to really tell how good a QB is is to watch him play. A lot. I wish we had easy access to game tapes of the top QBs this past year. Watching them would IMO be the only way to really know how good they are. 

[Dobbinblitz]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

Time to throw is a bit more nuanced of a stat than this. QBs who make plays out of structure often have high time to throw because they extend plays past the point at which they get pressured and they try to make plays on the move. Stroud had the best protection bar none in this draft class. I'm trying to find the exact stat, but can't seem to right now... By memory(could be wrong in the exact numbers, but the ranges I think are correct), Stroud was pressured on just 25% of his drop backs, Young, Levis and Richardson were at about 35-40% if I'm not mistaken. 

 

Edit: just found the numbers by Nov 8th... can't find them at the end of the season:

 

- CJ Stroud - under pressure on 21% of drop backs

- Bryce Young - under pressure on 32% of drop backs

- Will Levis - under pressure on 37% of drop backs

- Anthony Richardson - under pressure on 40% of drop backs

This is another stat that is equally nuanced because it does not incorporate time to pressure, meaning it does not differentiate sacks caused by early pressure compared to Sacks caused by the QB holding on to the ball too long - lack field vision or proper progressions -or the QB is unable to avoid pressure.  

Using time to throw + time to pressure is probably a better metric as it better differentiates QB’s and cause of breakdown.  Example: using these two measures Justin Fields while very mobile is overwhelmingly responsible for the majority of his sacks.

All of these stats while helpful, are nuanced as a standalone measurements.

[stitches]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

That's directly related to not finding open receivers, correct?. 

 

And that's either because they can't see the field, or they can't anticipate, or the receivers suck relative to the DBs.  I guess a GM has to figure out which it is.

No, that has more to do with what he does when he faces pressure. The pressure is already a fact(for whatever reason)... what happens in that situation - he gets sacked every 4th time. This is more about pocket pressence and awareness, ability to see and avoid rushers, ability to get rid off the ball before he gets sacked, etc. BTW even this stat has some nuances to it... for example - maybe he gets sacked 25% of the cases... but then makes great plays in inordinately high % of the time (big time throws % when pressured? I don't have that stat) in the cases he doesn't get sacked. For example, I think Burrow probably falls in this category. 

 

But if you don't get the benefit of great positive plays to come with the negative of high sack% when pressured, then it might be a problem. 

[RollerColt]

5 hours ago, jonjon said:

I think this is a situation (as in most) where stats fail, or at least can be misleading and are overrated. The only way to really tell how good a QB is is to watch him play. A lot. I wish we had easy access to game tapes of the top QBs this past year. Watching them would IMO be the only way to really know how good they are. 

There’s a good amount on YouTube that showcase each of the top four. And  I’m not talking highlights either. Lots of play by play videos per game. Just gotta dig for them a bit. 

[stitches]

8 hours ago, jonjon said:

I think this is a situation (as in most) where stats fail, or at least can be misleading and are overrated. The only way to really tell how good a QB is is to watch him play. A lot. I wish we had easy access to game tapes of the top QBs this past year. Watching them would IMO be the only way to really know how good they are. 

There are cut ups for all the QBs on youtube, BUT unfortunately they are not all-22 tapes, but rather the copy from the TV broadcast. Search for "CJ Stroud vs", "Will Levis vs" in youtube and you will get some 10 minute cut ups of all plays of said QB vs specific opponent. I still wish I could have their all-22 tape, though... 

[DougDew]

6 hours ago, stitches said:

No, that has more to do with what he does when he faces pressure. The pressure is already a fact(for whatever reason)... what happens in that situation - he gets sacked every 4th time. This is more about pocket pressence and awareness, ability to see and avoid rushers, ability to get rid off the ball before he gets sacked, etc. BTW even this stat has some nuances to it... for example - maybe he gets sacked 25% of the cases... but then makes great plays in inordinately high % of the time (big time throws % when pressured? I don't have that stat) in the cases he doesn't get sacked. For example, I think Burrow probably falls in this category. 

 

But if you don't get the benefit of great positive plays to come with the negative of high sack% when pressured, then it might be a problem. 

We're saying the same things, I think.  If he gets sacked every 4th time, I would assume its because his second and third reads are covered every 4th time so he doesn't throw the ball. I'd have to see film of how a QB slides.  I don't think a stat explains it very well. 

 

Especially one that only use two variables, an X and a Y axis...which is normally the way its presented because people like to see pictures instead of tables of numbers.  So the stats have to be generalized and miss a lot of nuance when they are written in a way that can be reduced to a graph on two axes.

 

I'd like to see more granularity to reflect the following situations, which are also, admittedly, generalized.

 

1)  How many sacks, or pressures, were in less than 2 seconds?  These types of sacks generally happen because of a missed assignment on the oline or the 1st quick read receiver being covered.   Sacks this quickly are not the QBs fault.

 

2)  Sacks after, say, 3 to 3.5 seconds.  Why hasn't the QB released the ball yet?  Is it because he is playing like JB in 2019, standing there not seeing what is in front of him (bad QB play).  Or is it because he's playing like Mahomes, moving and extending the play waiting for that receiver to get into the open space (good QB play)

 

3) Sacks taken between 2 seconds and 3-3.5 seconds.  These are the result of normal oline play, where there is pressure from one side or the other, or the middle, where the Qb should have slid around, found the receiver, and released the ball by then.  If not, why?.  Did he slide around buying time and the 2nd and 3rd reads were covered?

 

Just breaking it down into more buckets tells us stuff, but there is still good QB play and bad QB play within each of the longer Time buckets that isn't explained without looking at the film.

[philba101]

Interesting: NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks released his top 5 QB's in the 2023 Draft and neither Levis or Richardson are in his top 3; Richardson is not even in his top 5. It will be interesting to see who might take a chance on Hooker and how the NFL combine will affect the rest of these rankings.

 

1. Stroud

2. Young

3. Hooker

4. Levis

5. McKee

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-top-five-2023-nfl-draft-prospects-by-position-1-0-stroud-young-hook

[PRnum1]

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

 

Pre-draft nonsense is all I say to it.

 

It is not like they won't get his height and weight at his combine and Pro Day, lol.  

 

Folks just want to gossip on something, now that the NFL season is over.

[RollerColt]

8 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

Is Mina his significant other? If so, d'aww... I'm a sucker for happy couples. 

[buccolts]

15 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

Though he is shorter that ideal, I'm going with heels in this photo.

[GoColts8818]

38 minutes ago, buccolts said:

Though he is shorter that ideal, I'm going with heels in this photo.

She posted she was wearing four inch heels in the picture lol.

[coming on strong]

1 hour ago, PRnum1 said:

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

Mina is not 5 ft 3.  Bryce young would never play in college if he was 5 ft 7 .    Mina already said she is 5 ft 7 and wearing 4 inch heels in the pic .   Bryce is 6 ft tall that is why he only looks 1 or 2 inches taller in the picture 

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, PRnum1 said:

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

She said she's 5'7" and with heels, closer to 5'11".  But this is really not newsworthy TBH.  kid can play ball and throwing over the OL hasn't been a problem so there's no reason to expect him to all of the sudden struggle with it in a way that he never has before.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[shasta519]

17 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

 

Colts got (3) 2s to move from #3 to #6, with two of those 2nd rounders in that actual draft. And somehow CHI is going to do much worse moving from #1 to #4? 

 

I just can't imagine that is all it costs to move up to #1 from #4. If it is, then another QB-needy team will surely up the ante.

[ChuggaBeer]

2 hours ago, philba101 said:

Interesting: NFL.com Analyst Bucky Brooks released his top 5 QB's in the 2023 Draft and neither Levis or Richardson are in his top 3; Richardson is not even in his top 5. It will be interesting to see who might take a chance on Hooker and how the NFL combine will affect the rest of these rankings.

 

1. Stroud

2. Young

3. Hooker

4. Levis

5. McKee

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-top-five-2023-nfl-draft-prospects-by-position-1-0-stroud-young-hook

I think Hooker is a real sleeper and hoping that @Superman is able to get his write up finished on him soon.   I think that kid is going to surprise some folks 

[DougDew]

26 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Colts got (3) 2s to move from #3 to #6, with two of those 2nd rounders in that actual draft. And somehow CHI is going to do much worse moving from #1 to #4? 

 

I just can't imagine that is all it costs to move up to #1 from #4. If it is, then another QB-needy team will surely up the ante.

But it matters how far the Bears want to drop.  They can't ask for a kings ransom if HOU and IND are not going to offer it.  Each lower first round pick drops off in value, so our #4 pick has a lot more value than the Jets #6 pick had, so CHI doesn't get as much when they land on #4 as we got when we landed on #6,,,a much lower valued slot.

 

CHI probably has no interest in the 6th pick or lower.  Maybe not even lower than 4.

[DougDew]

10 minutes ago, ChuggaBeer said:

I think Hooker is a real sleeper and hoping that @Superman is able to get his write up finished on him soon.   I think that kid is going to surprise some folks 

IMO, Hooker and Richardson should be second round picks because of their current limitations.  Hooker has bounced around different colleges and only really had a good year this past year in a system that many call gimmicky or specialized.

 

Young, Stroud, and Levis are in a different category.

[stitches]

2 hours ago, PRnum1 said:

This photo is causing quite an uproar. Mina is only 5'3

 

 

 

Nick Saban is 5'6"

 

 

 

 

[richard pallo]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Nick Saban is 5'6"

 

 

 

Identical height.  Oh oh.

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

The thing I find unbelievable with this type of mock trades is - why wouldn't the Texans offer the exact same deal to move up? IMO the Texans will easily offer a second to move to 1. IMO we will NEED to offer a 1st ... and very likely some other stuff... I guess... unless Jimmy has dirt on the McCaskeys  

[2006Coltsbestever]

Mina probably has Heels on and Saban is standing on something  . Young is at least 5'10. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

The thing I find unbelievable with this type of mock trades is - why wouldn't the Texans offer the exact same deal to move up? IMO the Texans will easily offer a second to move to 1. IMO we will NEED to offer a 1st ... and very likely some other stuff... I guess... unless Jimmy has dirt on the McCaskeys  

I think if the Texans think colts are going to take the same QB then yeah they would move up. But Texans have to be convinced colts want same QB. I think teams will try and get as much inside knowledge before making a trade. Texans can offer more if they do think colts will move up.

[richard pallo]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Mina probably has Heels on and Saban is standing on something  . Young is at least 5'10. 

I don’t know.  Two pictures that put him at 5’ 7” maybe.  Mina with heels is 5’7”.  You can never trust those college measurements apparently.

[stitches]

Just now, richard pallo said:

I don’t know.  Two pictures that put him at 5’ 7” maybe.  Mina with heels is 5’7”.  You can never trust those college measurements apparently.

Not sure about 5'7" but he very well might be 5'9"... 

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Colts got (3) 2s to move from #3 to #6, with two of those 2nd rounders in that actual draft. And somehow CHI is going to do much worse moving from #1 to #4? 

 

I just can't imagine that is all it costs to move up to #1 from #4. If it is, then another QB-needy team will surely up the ante.

It baffles my mind that people don't know the value chart and/or history of trades for #1.

[PRnum1]

2 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

She said she's 5'7" and with heels, closer to 5'11".  But this is really not newsworthy TBH.  kid can play ball and throwing over the OL hasn't been a problem so there's no reason to expect him to all of the sudden struggle with it in a way that he never has before.

Something still doesn't add up.

 

If she's 5'7 + 4 in heels = 5'11.  Bryce is saying he is 6 feet.

 

He is 3 to 4 inches taller than her in the picture.  That would put Bryce at 6'4.

 

Someone is still not telling the truth.

[stitches]

 

 

Bryce Young with Tony Dungy. Tony Dungy is 6'0"

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

But it matters how far the Bears want to drop.  They can't ask for a kings ransom if HOU and IND are not going to offer it.  Each lower first round pick drops off in value, so our #4 pick has a lot more value than the Jets #6 pick had, so CHI doesn't get as much when they land on #4 as we got when we landed on #6,,,a much lower valued slot.

 

CHI probably has no interest in the 6th pick or lower.  Maybe not even lower than 4.

 

But the starting point for #1 is so much higher than the #3 pick (the pick the Colts had).

 

#6 might be a lower valued slot, but the fall from #1 to #4 is 2x as much (1,200 pts) as the fall from #3 to #6 (600 pts). 

 

But this trade offer has it backwards, with CHI getting about 1/2 of what IND got. That's why I think it's way too light.

 

Now there are other considerations. Like who CHI is targeting in the draft and whether they can still get that player. Not to mention relationships between orgs. 

 

I think if CHI has no interest in going below #6, those QB-needy teams below #6 will be able to quickly create some interest if they find out that is all IND is offering for the #1 pick.