Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

17 minutes ago, Tsarquise said:

This off-season is so very interesting.

Just wait until after the combine in two weeks and all the QB rumors start.  It’s going to be nice to finally get this QB situation figured out.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Just wait until after the combine in two weeks and all the QB rumors start.  It’s going to be nice to finally get this QB situation figured out.

I don't think I asked you this yet. Who do you want at 4 now that Steichen is the HC?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

18 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't think I asked you this yet. Who do you want at 4 now that Steichen is the HC?

With him he could probably have success with any of the four. The fact he mentioned accuracy first I dont think Richardson will be on their board. Ballard feels the same way. The other 3 have good accuracy. Young and stroud are better in that area then Levis though. The more I think about it I think he could do a lot  Levis. Stroud can create enough too. I just can’t get on board with young with his size. Don’t get me wrong I won’t hate it though.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't think I asked you this yet. Who do you want at 4 now that Steichen is the HC?

I want Young but if we draft Stroud, I would be fine with it. Shane was a great hire. Excellent offensive mind.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Irsay in full troll mode.

 

 

[NorthernColt]

On 2/13/2023 at 11:50 AM, BeanDiasucci said:

I do want to correct this. Richardson was a junior last season and has declared he will forego his senior season. But the comparison here is still on target. Hurts completed 62.8% of his passes as a freshman with 23 TDs and 9 INTs and was SEC Freshman of the Year. He was a much better passer throughout college and even as a freshman than Richardson is now

While you're not wrong, this is why you scout tape and not the stats. So much of Richardsons throwing issues are incredibly fixable. He's never even worked with a QB coach before this draft prep. Let alone, Hurts has much better receivers than Richardson had this year and its not even all that close. 

[BProland85]

11 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't think I asked you this yet. Who do you want at 4 now that Steichen is the HC?

I think the fact he led with accuracy with what he wants at QB screams Stroud to me. Stroud has the size, smarts, and can move when needed. I wouldn’t deal up to 1 overall by giving up a bunch of picks to draft him though. This team has multiple needs and need their picks. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

8 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

I think the fact he led with accuracy with what he wants at QB screams Stroud to me. Stroud has the size, smarts, and can move when needed. I wouldn’t deal up to 1 overall by giving up a bunch of picks to draft him though. This team has multiple needs and need their picks. 

If that’s the guy they want then they have to go get him. You can’t be passive when it comes to QB. Levis fits the bill too. Stroud though has elite accuracy compared to young and Levis. We can probably stay at 4 if Levis  is who we want. Although the tweets I posted above have Levis going around stroud.

[coming on strong]

i want levis because i think him and richardson are the only two we could get without trading up .    i would be fine with any of these 4 QBs after watching the QB play last year .   its so hard to predict who will be good or not if nfl gm's  cant even predict right that proves how hard it is .    i trust ballard because the one thing he is good at is drafting he just stinks at roster construction and free agents

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

i want levis because i think him and richardson are the only two we could get without trading up .    i would be fine with any of these 4 QBs after watching the QB play last year .   its so hard to predict who will be good or not if nfl gm's  cant even predict right that proves how hard it is .    i trust ballard because the one thing he is good at is drafting he just stinks at roster construction and free agents

What’s interesting is in those tweets above PFF is hearing Levis is ahead of Stroud.

[stitches]

Now that the season is over, national media starting to watch some tape on the QBs of this draft... get ready for some shuffling of the boards:

 

 

 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

On 2/13/2023 at 8:43 AM, throwing BBZ said:

 

 He has three years so... I would suggest you are wrong in suggesting such.

Ballard actually has four more years.    His new six year contract was done just before the 22 season along with Frank’s extension. 

[krunk]

1 hour ago, BProland85 said:

I think the fact he led with accuracy with what he wants at QB screams Stroud to me. Stroud has the size, smarts, and can move when needed. I wouldn’t deal up to 1 overall by giving up a bunch of picks to draft him though. This team has multiple needs and need their picks. 

I would explore at least moving to #3 if we can. The least expensive move up position. #3 puts us in pretty good position. I feel pretty good about Houston taking Young.

[John Waylon]

I don’t know what they’re thinking from a talent evaluation standpoint, but from a purely marketing standpoint they have a reason to have a vested interest in Stroud. 
 

The Bengals have become perennial contenders. Traditionally, the state of Ohio as a whole has never been a staunch pro football state, mainly because their teams have not been winners. That has started to change, and I can attest to that personally. I have a ton of family in the Columbus-Delaware area, and I visit there monthly. The increase in visible support for the Bengals has gone up considerably in the last 2 years.  
 

Cincinnati is just a 90 minute straight shot down 74 from Indianapolis. With the Bengals now a force in the AFC and that close to Indy, we’re not just in a battle for wins and losses with them, we’re in “arms race” for fan support, for lack of a better term. 
 

Enter Stroud. The central Ohio area is Buckeye territory. Columbus to Indy is a 2 hour drive. With a dramatically increased contingent of that Ohio State crowd suddenly having their interest in pro football piqued, there’s definitely a viable market there that the Colts could take advantage of by landing Stroud. I’ve already heard plenty from my own family (Ohio State fans that don’t really follow the NFL,) that they hope he ends up here so they can follow his career and continue to go see him play at the NFL level. 
 

That gives them a reason to have a vested interest in Marvin Harrison Jr next spring, as well. The Bengals double-dipped getting a QB and his top WR in college to mold themselves into contenders, if the Colts could replicate that move and turn it into a triple-dip by luring an already established and passionate college fanbase that follows those players into the fold… It’s a lucrative prospect to say the least. 
 

It would be interesting to see the data analyzing how the rise of the Bengals has affected the Colts, particularly in the markets closer to the Cincinnati and central Ohio areas, because this would be a massive boost to offset, and even reverse any of those trends. 
 

Purely from a marketing perspective, before anyone starts railing about talent and why this QB or that QB is better than Stroud. 

[stitches]

 

AHAHHA... Bryce Young is barely taller than Mina Kimes.. 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 hours ago, krunk said:

I would explore at least moving to #3 if we can. The least expensive move up position. #3 puts us in pretty good position. I feel pretty good about Houston taking Young.

I kind of agree. If we get stroud or Levis I am happy. I just don’t want to be in position to be forced to take Richardson. Albright seems pretty convinced that Houston wants young.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[John Waylon]

59 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

AHAHHA... Bryce Young is barely taller than Mina Kimes.. 

 

I cannot wait to see what he measures at during the combine. Even if she’s in a pair of heels she’d have to be in these to get him to the 6 foot mark. 
 

 

[coming on strong]

5 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

I cannot wait to see what he measures at during the combine. Even if she’s in a pair of heels she’d have to be in these to get him to the 6 foot mark. 
 

 

she said on twitter she was wearing 4 inch heels and she is 5 ft 7 so she would be 5 11 in the picture .   bryce young is 6 ft tall

[John Waylon]

2 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

she said on twitter she was wearing 4 inch heels and she is 5 ft 7 so she would be 5 11 in the picture .   bryce young is 6 ft tall

Somehow I doubt that, but we’re gonna find out. 

[danlhart87]

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Lol. Fields would look good with Steichen and colts play in a dome.

 

 

[stitches]

Get ready for some connect the dots below... 

 

Colts reporters seem think Ballard loved Fields in the draft. I've heard multiple of them say that... 

Remember that "leaked" picture from our board in the same 2021 draft? The Colts had another QB with blue chip label in that draft - Trey Lance. And then in the exit interviews a month ago, he mentioned they were seriously considering trading up for QB in the 2020 draft before trading for Buckner. The QB we could have traded for in that draft - Justin Herbert! 

 

So... 

 

Justin Fields,

Trey Lance

Justin Herbert.... 

 

There is a distinct through line with all of those. IF we think the Colts really had interest in those, IMO it's not totally out of line to assume Ballard has a type of QB he likes - big(all of them 6'3+ 225lbs+), all of them great athletes, 2 of them you can run designed run games with... the third... you might still do it, but not as a foundation of your offense. 

 

IF this is Ballard's type... IMO the players that fit that mold in this draft are only 2... Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. 

 

[Dingus McGirt]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

 

AHAHHA... Bryce Young is barely taller than Mina Kimes.. 

 

He’s diminutive…but wiry.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

Now that the season is over, national media starting to watch some tape on the QBs of this draft... get ready for some shuffling of the boards:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outstanding athleticism. Dreadful QBing.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

Interesting...Levis did well under pressure.  Since he has higher picks overall, maybe he was trying to be the hero on bad 2022 team.

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Outstanding athleticism. Dreadful QBing.

In what way? I don't find much wrong here with Richardson's play? 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Interesting...Levis did well under pressure.  Since he has higher picks overall, maybe he was trying to be the hero on bad 2022 team.

I mean you can’t win if you don’t score points. Then add with his injury he couldn’t use his legs. If he had been able to use his legs it probably would of opened things up for those bad WR.

[krunk]

25 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Outstanding athleticism. Dreadful QBing.

I cringed at the way he was bouncing around in the pocket.  Where was the footwork and mechanics?

[BeanDiasucci]

6 hours ago, NorthernColt said:

While you're not wrong, this is why you scout tape and not the stats. So much of Richardsons throwing issues are incredibly fixable. He's never even worked with a QB coach before this draft prep. Let alone, Hurts has much better receivers than Richardson had this year and its not even all that close. 

I don't understand what you mean by he didn't have a QB coach. The University of Florida appears to have quite a good quarterbacks coach: https://floridagators.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/brian-johnson/839

 

The scouting reports I've seen on Richardson say he has the worst accuracy among the Top 10 or so QBs in the draft, which is of course offset to some degree by having other elite qualities such as speed, athleticism and arm strength. It doesn't seem like the quality of his receivers is the primary reason for his low completion percentage. At least one of the scouting reports said that his accuracy issues seem to result primarily from his mechanics being bad at times, so there's hope for significant improvement through developing consistently good mechanics. Drafting him is a gamble, IMHO, as there's no knowing how successful he will be in making improvement and it won't likely be an overnight process in any case. 

[Rhodelesstraveled]

I'd trade back get picks fo the OL and draft Richardson.  He is my guy.  

[stitches]

25 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Interesting...Levis did well under pressure.  Since he has higher picks overall, maybe he was trying to be the hero on bad 2022 team.

Levis has a mix of stats that might make you love him or hate him. Him playing pretty much the whole season with multiple injuries doesn't help with the evaluation. His previous season was much better for example. And still ... there are some stats that point towards him possibly being the best prospect in this draft - example, PFF has a stat for forced throws in tight windows(those are throws that the QB HAD to make into a tight windown, because none of his receivers were open. Levis almost doubles every single one of the other QBs in this draft and the number of his tight window throws is higher than even what QBs in the NFL face(where coverage is supposed to be much better). This puts into contrast the situation Levis was in vs the situation players like Bryce Young or CJ Stroud were in - with tons of talent around them and tons of throws to open receivers. Levis had none of that... and he still managed to throw over 65% completion%. 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

In what way? I don't find much wrong here with Richardson's play? 

 

When have you ever seen a QB in the NFL successfully slalom laterally through the pocket, and complete a pass down the field? He looks more like Bode Miller than Jalen Hurts.

 

Look at how drastically his head/eye level is changing with each bounce; how can you expect good vision, let alone good accuracy?

 

Target practice 101 -- throwing, shooting, archery, bowling, pitching, batting, serving, you name it --  is about lining your body up to your target. From the time he hits his back foot, his body is all over the place, and his feet are a mess. He takes two steps at the top to line up and throw, but the rest of the time he's in no position to throw in any direction. If not for a blown coverage, where is he gonna throw? He'd have to take on the spy defender.

 

And after the first two moves, the rest is totally unnecessary. He's now evaded the immediate pressure, and has a pocket, but he had no awareness of that fact because he panicked after the initial pressure. By the way, yes, footwork and mechanics can be improved, but the real question is whether a guy will revert back to bad habits specifically when he's under pressure.

 

They call it 'things you can't teach.' I think it's more things you would never teach. Maybe even things you would actively discourage. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have some reckless plays on tape, because they're so physically gifted that they can get away with a lot more than other players. Even they don't try this kind of stuff, not because they're not physically capable, but because it's much more likely to end in a turnover than a completion.

 

It's a display of his outstanding physical gifts, but plays like this make my stomach hurt, because as promising as it is from a physical standpoint, it's twice as problematic from a technical standpoint. 

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, BeanDiasucci said:

I don't understand what you mean by he didn't have a QB coach. The University of Florida appears to have quite a good quarterbacks coach: https://floridagators.com/sports/football/roster/coaches/brian-johnson/839

 

Brian Johnson is, coincidentally, presently the QB coach for the Eagles, and rumored to be Steichen's replacement at OC. He left Florida after 2020, but Richardson didn't actually play that season. So there's only a short overlap for them, and Richardson probably didn't get the benefit of working daily with him, reviewing film, etc., especially with how limited teams were in 2020.

 

However, it's likely that Johnson and Steichen had some conversations about Richardson over the last couple seasons. Maybe some advance scouting that we'd benefit from.

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

When have you ever seen a QB in the NFL successfully slalom laterally through the pocket, and complete a pass down the field? He looks more like Bode Miller than Jalen Hurts.

 

Look at how drastically his head/eye level is changing with each bounce; how can you expect good vision, let alone good accuracy?

 

Target practice 101 -- throwing, shooting, archery, bowling, pitching, batting, serving, you name it --  is about lining your body up to your target. From the time he hits his back foot, his body is all over the place, and his feet are a mess. He takes two steps at the top to line up and throw, but the rest of the time he's in no position to throw in any direction. If not for a blown coverage, where is he gonna throw? He'd have to take on the spy defender.

 

And after the first two moves, the rest is totally unnecessary. He's now evaded the immediate pressure, and has a pocket, but he had no awareness of that fact because he panicked after the initial pressure. By the way, yes, footwork and mechanics can be improved, but the real question is whether a guy will revert back to bad habits specifically when he's under pressure.

 

They call it 'things you can't teach.' I think it's more things you would never teach. Maybe even things you would actively discourage. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have some reckless plays on tape, because they're so physically gifted that they can get away with a lot more than other players. Even they don't try this kind of stuff, not because they're not physically capable, but because it's much more likely to end in a turnover than a completion.

 

It's a display of his outstanding physical gifts, but plays like this make my stomach hurt, because as promising as it is from a physical standpoint, it's twice as problematic from a technical standpoint. 

Thanksfor the response... I guess I disagree to some degree in this specific example... I see him evading pressure and finding better platform to throw from in the pocket. His first "jump cut" is absolutely necessary. If he doesn't do that he's sacked. The moment he looks right after the first jump cut, the defender flashes in front of him to the right so he makes another jump away from him and immediately avoids another defender from the left. I give you one thing - it looks weird as hell.. it looks like a running back trying to find a path through defenders. But the best thing in this video IMO is... he never actually stopped looking downfield. This is why I don't think he actually was panicking... I think he was instinctively avoiding threats... but he actually kept his eyes downfield... a ton of players with similar mobility drop their eyes and just tuck it and run. His footwork is a known issue, but when you are being pressure and taken off your spot multiple times within 1 second, I feel like this is more of an example of his ability to throw off platform, rather than a knock on his shoddy footwork. 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Thanksfor the response... I guess I disagree to some degree in this specific example... I see him evading pressure and finding better platform to throw from in the pocket. His first "jump cut" is absolutely necessary. If he doesn't do that he's sacked. The moment he looks right after the first jump cut, the defender flashes in front of him to the right so he makes another jump away from him and immediately avoids another defender from the left. I give you one thing - it looks weird as hell.. it looks like a running back trying to find a path through defenders. But the best thing in this video IMO is... he never actually stopped looking downfield. This is why I don't think he actually was panicking... I think he was instinctively avoiding threats... but he actually kept his eyes downfield... a ton of players with similar mobility drop their eyes and just tuck it and run. His footwork is a known issue, but when you are being pressure and taken off your spot multiple times within 1 second, I feel like this is more of an example of his ability to throw off platform, rather than a knock on his shoddy footwork. 

 

It's definitely an example of his ability to throw off platform. But he was off platform because he was bouncing all over the place. I think he had a pocket to settle into, at least for a moment.

 

Also, to his credit, he keeps his eyes downfield and doesn't tuck and scramble. But if that receiver doesn't come open, he's probably taking on that spy defender right in front of him, right? I do think he panics, but the fact that he doesn't immediately commit to running is a positive.

 

The result of this play is basically a matter of luck. If you put him in this situation 100 times, it will end badly 99 times. I think it's dangerous to elevate his standing on the basis of 1% plays like this.

[DougDew]

45 minutes ago, stitches said:

Levis has a mix of stats that might make you love him or hate him. Him playing pretty much the whole season with multiple injuries doesn't help with the evaluation. His previous season was much better for example. And still ... there are some stats that point towards him possibly being the best prospect in this draft - example, PFF has a stat for forced throws in tight windows(those are throws that the QB HAD to make into a tight windown, because none of his receivers were open. Levis almost doubles every single one of the other QBs in this draft and the number of his tight window throws is higher than even what QBs in the NFL face(where coverage is supposed to be much better). This puts into contrast the situation Levis was in vs the situation players like Bryce Young or CJ Stroud were in - with tons of talent around them and tons of throws to open receivers. Levis had none of that... and he still managed to throw over 65% completion%. 

Levis was put into situations the NFL will put him into.  I think both Young and especially Stroud had it pretty easy in that respect.

[stitches]

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's definitely an example of his ability to throw off platform. But he was off platform because he was bouncing all over the place. I think he had a pocket to settle into, at least for a moment.

That's probably fair, but I still am not sure that his throw would be from a solid platform if he settles after the first jump. It's not like the defender was that far from him. IMO it's very possible he would have had to move again... 

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Also, to his credit, he keeps his eyes downfield and doesn't tuck and scramble. But if that receiver doesn't come open, he's probably taking on that spy defender right in front of him, right?

 

Yes.. and what's the problem with that? He avoided pressure 2-3 times in the pocket, kept his eyes downfield scanning for open receivers and found one(btw notice that he's actually not looking in just one direction... he's actually scanning the field throughout this whole ordeal). If the receiver doesn't get open, what should he do? Take the sack? Throw it away? Why not take on the spy defender? This is exactly what I want an Anthony RIchardson to do. This is what you draft him for in the most ideal of cases - play from the pocket... keep your eyes downfield... make the throw if the throw is there... and if you have nothing... and pressure is upon you, use your gifts to make a play. If there is one QB in this class I want against a spy defender, it's Richardson. I have no problem with that. 

 

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

I do think he panics, but the fact that he doesn't immediately commit to running is a positive.

He's done it in other situations too. He doesn't seem panicked to me like... ever. I actually like his poise and instincts in the pocket. He has an absurdly low pressure to sack coversion rate(I think it was 6th in the entire nation), especially for a QB who is looking to extend plays. 

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The result of this play is basically a matter of luck. If you put him in this situation 100 times, it will end badly 99 times. I think it's dangerous to elevate his standing on the basis of 1% plays like this.

I guess I disagree that this is the 1% of the outcomes here... and the question is - what do you consider "end badly" and what do you think another QB would do in this situation. Will Levis probably gets his head taken off by the first defender because for some reason he doesn't see free rushers to the right. CJ Stroud gets sacked, Bryce Young... maybe he makes a play of some sort? I don't know. This is far from an ideal play when it comes to protection. He's facing a pressure about 2 seconds after the snap, pretty much the moment he hits his drop back depth he has to move. A ton of QBs can't do anything about this. Richardson can in some portion of the situations. 

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

That's probably fair, but I still am not sure that his throw would be from a solid platform if he settles after the first jump. It's not like the defender was that far from him. IMO it's very possible he would have had to move again... 

Yes.. and what's the problem with that? He avoided pressure 2-3 times in the pocket, kept his eyes downfield scanning for open receivers and found one(btw notice that he's actually not looking in just one direction... he's actually scanning the field throughout this whole ordeal). If the receiver doesn't get open, what should he do? Take the sack? Throw it away? Why not take on the spy defender? This is exactly what I want an Anthony RIchardson to do. This is what you draft him for in the most ideal of cases - play from the pocket... keep your eyes downfield... make the throw if the throw is there... and if you have nothing... and pressure is upon you, use your gifts to make a play. If there is one QB in this class I want against a spy defender, it's Richardson. I have no problem with that. 

 

He's done it in other situations too. He doesn't seem panicked to me like... ever. I actually like his poise and instincts in the pocket. He has an absurdly low pressure to sack coversion rate(I think it was 6th in the entire nation), especially for a QB who is looking to extend plays. 

I guess I disagree that this is the 1% of the outcomes here... and the question is - what do you consider "end badly" and what do you think another QB would do in this situation. Will Levis probably gets his head taken off by the first defender because for some reason he doesn't see free rushers to the right. CJ Stroud gets sacked, Bryce Young... maybe he makes a play of some sort? I don't know. This is far from an ideal play when it comes to protection. He's facing a pressure about 2 seconds after the snap, pretty much the moment he hits his drop back depth he has to move. A ton of QBs can't do anything about this. Richardson can in some portion of the situations. 

 

Gonna come back to this later, I want to find this play from the broadcast angle. If it's the one I'm thinking it is -- and I'm pretty sure it is -- he has more room in the pocket than it seems from this angle.

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Gonna come back to this later, I want to find this play from the broadcast angle. If it's the one I'm thinking it is -- and I'm pretty sure it is -- he has more room in the pocket than it seems from this angle.

I know you don't want to have your analysis impacted by others so put it on mute here's the all 22 from the wide angle from the stands(8:48):