Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[shasta519]

45 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

It baffles my mind that people don't know the value chart and/or history of trades for #1.

 

Even if the draft trade chart isn't gospel, we still have multiple real-life examples of teams trading down from the top few picks. And that trade would be the outlier of all outliers, especially for the #1 pick in the draft.

 

I guess anything is possible. But if that was realistic, I would think it would have been done yesterday.

 

This is the silly season. And my first thought reading this was just some misinformation to hurt CHI's position. And then predictably, I see a "rumor" that there are GMs who think CHI will trade Fields, which means CHI will need a QB and the pick would cost a fortune.

 

 

[PRnum1]

12 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

 

Bryce Young with Tony Dungy. Tony Dungy is 6'0"

If you subtract out or pat down the hair, Young is a good 2 inches shorter than Dungy

[#12.]

Venturi was on Kevin's show.  He said he recently studied the QBs with Gruden.   Young - they call him little Mo, little Mahommes.  Venturi wants us to trade up to #1.

[#12.]

I checked out mocks from this week last year.  Malik Willis was going top 10.  

[Dingus McGirt]

6 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

If you subtract out or pat down the hair, Young is a good 2 inches shorter than Dungy

3

[chad72]

Just now, #12. said:

I checked out mocks from this week last year.  Malik Willis was going top 10.  

 

Liberty did him in. Folks do give more credence to the SEC and Big Ten. All the Top 4 QBs in this draft have played such competition. That has got to count for something.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, #12. said:

Venturi was on Kevin's show.  He said he recently studied the QBs with Gruden.   Young - they call him little Mo, little Mahommes.  Venturi wants us to trade up to #1.

He does look very similar in his off script plays as mahomes. He is just so much smaller and will that work in the NFL where everyone is bigger.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

The thing I find unbelievable with this type of mock trades is - why wouldn't the Texans offer the exact same deal to move up? IMO the Texans will easily offer a second to move to 1. IMO we will NEED to offer a 1st ... and very likely some other stuff... I guess... unless Jimmy has dirt on the McCaskeys  

 

HOU easily would and CHI would easily accept, pocket those picks and then start working the phones again for the #2 pick. Dream scenario for them.

 

I feel like it's all just misinformation this time of year though. The overwhelming sentiment is that CHI won't get a king's ransom, yet there are also GMs who think they might trade Fields and draft a QB instead (which makes the first rumor moot). It's all about where the info is coming from...and more importantly why.

 

When the season ended, I thought a trade up was likely. But the more I think about it...it's going to be tricky. The Colts have to outbid HOU by a good amount because they will be CHI's first call. And then the next call will be to those teams at #9 and #10, where the offers could start to get silly and force the Colts up their ante.

 

Colts are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place...and I think staying pat is going to look better and better, unless they love a QB in this draft. But if CHI would actually trade Fields, then all of this QB draft talk would be moot to me. Because then you go get Fields.

[#12.]

1 minute ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He does look very similar in his off script plays as mahomes. He is just so much smaller and will that work in the NFL where everyone is bigger.

 

He also likes Levis and Stroud.  Richardson has talent, but doesn't see us drafting him.  

[PRnum1]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He does look very similar in his off script plays as mahomes. He is just so much smaller and will that work in the NFL where everyone is bigger.

And his arm strength is suspect throwing deep to the outside like superman mentioned.

 

Here is a deep throw that fell short to the outside.  Notice he has a completely clean pocket.

 

 

 

[#12.]

I've always thought Young looked like the best QB.  I just question whether Ballard would draft him, and yes, the size is a concern.

[DougDew]

40 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

But the starting point for #1 is so much higher than the #3 pick (the pick the Colts had).

 

#6 might be a lower valued slot, but the fall from #1 to #4 is 2x as much (1,200 pts) as the fall from #3 to #6 (600 pts). 

 

But this trade offer has it backwards, with CHI getting about 1/2 of what IND got. That's why I think it's way too light.

 

Now there are other considerations. Like who CHI is targeting in the draft and whether they can still get that player. Not to mention relationships between orgs. 

 

I think if CHI has no interest in going below #6, those QB-needy teams below #6 will be able to quickly create some interest if they find out that is all IND is offering for the #1 pick. 

Yeah, I think it comes down to the individual drafts and how the talent settles.  In 2018, Ballard said that trading down to 6 was okay because there were 8 elite players in the draft...I think Roquan Smith was one and Derwin James if not Tremain Edwards...and he did not want to trade out of that elite 8.  A big step down in value between pick 8 and 9.

 

I think this draft has 3 QBs and 2 stud defensive linemen, and then a drop off.  So I can see there being not a bunch of difference in value between the first 5 picks but then a big drop off where CHI doesn't want to go.  That would be LVR, ATL, and CAR at 7,8,and 9.   I'm not sure who else would trade up for a QB, so it seems like its just the Colts and HOU bidding over a QB that might not be a clear favorite...either teams could easily settle for QB#2.  

 

I'm saying I can see that price being what it is given that pick #1 may not be as special relative to the other top 3 or 4 picks.

[DougDew]

31 minutes ago, #12. said:

I checked out mocks from this week last year.  Malik Willis was going top 10.  

Yep.  And Sam Howell in mid second.  There has been a pattern where the predraft chatter raises the stock of all QBs, or certain QBs...the trendy ones with mobility...then about one week before the draft, we get reports that they are "dropping" in the eyes of the GMs.  LOL.   As if they were ever that high in their eyes in the first place.   

 

There is a lot of hype now, because there is no actual action to talk about.  When it gets more serious as we approach draft time, things start to settle into reality.

 

I predict that Anthony Richardson won't sniff the first round when the draft comes.

[DougDew]

28 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

And his arm strength is suspect throwing deep to the outside like superman mentioned.

 

Here is a deep throw that fell short to the outside.  Notice he has a completely clean pocket.

 

 

 

He does not have the arm talent as Mahomes.  Its a false comparison, IMO.

 

Edit:  But that was just a bad throw and a bad decision as much as anything.

[Gigc]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Yep.  And Sam Howell in mid second.  There has been a pattern where the predraft chatter raises the stock of all QBs, or certain QBs...the trendy ones with mobility...then about one week before the draft, we get reports that they are "dropping" in the eyes of the GMs.  LOL.   As if they were ever that high in their eyes in the first place.   

 

There is a lot of hype now, because there is no actual action to talk about.  When it gets more serious as we approach draft time, things start to settle into reality.

 

I predict that Anthony Richardson won't sniff the first round when the draft comes.

You may end up being right about Richardson, but I'd be very very surprised. If teams drafted Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Paxton Lynch, Tebow and Haskins in the first round, then SOMEBODY is going to take a swing on Richardson's ceiling before the end of round 1.

[Gigc]

I think one thing that makes it harder to see the Colts choosing Bryce Young is Andrew Luck. It's not like this franchise hasn't recently dealt with a franchise QB suffering career-shortening injuries.

I think that would play in the back of their minds just as much, if not more, than Ballard's metrics...

But HEY!!! life is full of surprises. And we haven't even gotten to the combine yet

[throwing BBZ]

1 minute ago, Gigc said:

I think one thing that makes it harder to see the Colts choosing Bryce Young is Andrew Luck. It's not like this franchise hasn't recently dealt with a franchise QB suffering career-shortening injuries.

I think that would play in the back of their minds just as much, if not more, than Ballard's metrics...

But HEY!!! life is full of surprises. And we haven't even gotten to the combine yet

 

  So what do think our new HC thinks about using Young for all of those semi-automatic 4th and 1's?  Irsay knows!

[Gigc]

I think at 185 pounds the OC will have Big Q shot put Bryce for the first down...

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Every talks about Levis bad decision making. When they talk to him and put his bad plays up for him to analyze they will be able to tell if it was the right decision or it was the talent. A good football mind will be able to say yeah he made the right decision but that guy has no talent. If they look at it and say he made the wrong play then that’s where it might become A  problem.

[DougDew]

6 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  So what do think our new HC thinks about using Young for all of those semi-automatic 4th and 1's?  Irsay knows!

Yeah, that's what I thought of.  Hurts is strong.  That play doesn't happen with Young.  Not a reason not to pick him, but the difference is pretty obvious and it highlights the limitations.

[DougDew]

Even if Young increases weight before the combine, there should be some concern if the weight has been manufactured and won't really reflect his playing weight.   His frame is not that big...bone structure is what the professionals look at.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

13 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  So what do think our new HC thinks about using Young for all of those semi-automatic 4th and 1's?  Irsay knows!

Gosh I didn’t even think about that. Between that and Ballard I am beginning to think young won’t even be a option.

[craigerb]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Hurts is strong.  

[craigerb]

Hurts’s “Hail Mary” in SB was weak.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

33 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  So what do think our new HC thinks about using Young for all of those semi-automatic 4th and 1's?  Irsay knows!

Well look at this. Ridiculous if nfl does this.

 

 

[stitches]

45 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  So what do think our new HC thinks about using Young for all of those semi-automatic 4th and 1's?  Irsay knows!

That's another thing... those 4th and shorts sneaks were such a weapon for the Eagles. Of course, the rest of the game is much bigger part of the consideration, but this has to be at least a tiny bit of a topic for conversation within the FO before the draft. 

[richard pallo]

20 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Well look at this. Ridiculous if nfl does this.

 

 

Tbh I did not really like this play.  It worked but I tired of seeing it being used all of the time.  Pushing players has become very popular and the refs let it go on instead of blowing the whistle earlier.  I hope it is outlawed.   

[#12.]

When something is automatic, it becomes boring.  

[krunk]

3 hours ago, PRnum1 said:

If you subtract out or pat down the hair, Young is a good 2 inches shorter than Dungy

Dungy isnt that big of a man either. Ive seen him in person.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Carolina just hired Brian Decker so he won’t be there to evaluate QB. But I think his shtick is over done.

[cdgacoltsfan]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Well look at this. Ridiculous if nfl does this.

 

 

It should be outlawed. If you can't pull a guy forward then you shouldn't be allowed to push them forward. If they don't make it a penalty, every team will be doing it on 3rd or 4th down.

[stitches]

10 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Carolina just hired Brian Decker so he won’t be there to evaluate QB. But I think his shtick is over done.

Yep, just like I assumed. Tapper is probably throwing silly money on high profile FO and coaching hires... 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Well look at this. Ridiculous if nfl does this.

 

 

Jacoby was the king and needed no help on 4th and 1 - #7 JB 

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, craigerb said:

Hurts’s “Hail Mary” in SB was weak.

He had a lot of floaters in that game.  I don't know if he can make the deep out.

 

I have no idea about Youngs arm strength

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

20 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yep, just like I assumed. Tapper is probably throwing silly money on high profile FO and coaching hires... 

I mean has he really helped colts? It hasn’t. Colts just need good football players. This crap if testing them military style was a little ridiculous.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I mean this is true 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I mean this is true 

 

 

He’s just a fan with a Twitter account.    He has no knowledge that any other fan doesn’t have. 
 

And technically speaking, his info is FALSE.    The Colts are 4-14 and 1.

 

People blaming Decker and his “shtick” are just frustrated v fans looking for something to complain about.  
 

[danlhart87]

I hope LVR trade for Rodgers and Panthers go after Carr

 

That would immediately diminish the value Bears have trading down

[RollerColt]

4 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I hope LVR trade for Rodgers and Panthers go after Carr

 

That would immediately diminish the value Bears have trading down

I mean Carr’s gotta go somewhere, right? 

[danlhart87]

38 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I mean Carr’s gotta go somewhere, right? 

I am guessing someone from NFC South