BeanDiasucci

Yep. Looks like he's being slept on.

I hope the question to be resolved is whether they should sign/acquire a safety who is a starter or one who is a backup, not whether they should add a safety at all.

What I've seen is that the Colts were #8 in sacks last season, but # 22 in pressure rate. https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/08/more-consistent-pressure-needed-by-colts-defense-in-2024/

Good point. Hope that pays off.

Here's an analysis of the most valuable NFL positions based on an average of the top 10 salaries for players at each position. https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2023/07/07/most-valuable-positions-in-football/ It ranks the most valuable positions, in order, as QB, WR, Edge Rusher, LT, CB, RT, and S. (Yes, I know there is plenty to debate about this, including the offensive and defensive scheme for a particular team and how that impacts what positions are most valuable to them. Nonetheless, I think the emphasis teams are putting on investing in the offensive and defensive passing games is clear). I've been very glad to see the Colts do more the past couple of drafts to improve their QB, WR, and Edge Rusher talent. I'd like to see them put more emphasis on CB and S.

Paye had 11.5 career sacks in four seasons at Michigan (two as a starting DE) with a season high of 6.5. I don't believe pass rushing will ever be a strength. He had a great combine performance for a guy his size, but his college production wasn't as good.

In a league where teams pass almost 65% of the time on first down, does that role for Paye still make sense? (most recent year where I could find that stat: https://www.acefootballanalytics.com/post/nfl-2020-1st-down-run-pass-by-team#:~:text=First Downs have become pass,down across all NFL teams.) With teams averaging 7.4 yards when passing on first down and 4.8 yards when rushing on first down, isn't the trend for passing more on first down likely to increase and put more emphasis on first down pass rushing? (2022 season, the most recent for which I could find this stat: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/which-nfl-trends-will-carry-into-2022-season-fourth-down-aggressiveness-first-down-passing-more/_) I don't know the answers to these questions, but think they are interesting ones in considering the role of a player like Kwity Paye.

If you think about how an average works, those additional years of trying have an equal chance of helping or hurting your average per year based on whether you are more or less successful in drafting in those additional years. This doesn't seem like a weakness in the analysis to me. I'll point out, too, that Ballard is first on the list only because it is in alphabetical order. The person who put this together doesn't seem to have any particular interest in Chris Ballard. I think the biggest flaw with this analysis is probably that the average number of All Pro players drafted per year is a less than ideal measure of a GM's effectiveness in drafting. This might be, for instance, because some All Pro players are much more valuable than others -- an All-Pro QB might be a lot more impactful than an All Pro at another position -- and players who aren't All Pro might be more valuable over the long haul than a guy who was All Pro one year. Also, as Superman suggested, being named All Pro can be impacted by other factors, such as having (or not having) an outstanding QB to work with. Even with these significant weaknesses, I believe the analysis may have some small value in trying to provide an objective, quantitative measure to compare the number of star players per year that each GM has drafted. I think, for instance, it shows that Chris Ballard has not been more effective than most other GMs in drafting star players. Hopefully, his average per year will improve if we look at this again in a year or two, but of course that depends on Colts' draft picks of the last couple of years panning out like we hope they will.

You make good points. To me, besides being undermined by the lack of good quarterback play, the Colts have been limited by the lack of dynamic star players at DE and WR, which they have hopefully addressed (their list of All Pros under Ballard is light on high-impact players in the offensive and defensive passing game). Their last couple of drafts are very encouraging in terms of not just the current team but their approach and direction moving forward. In today's NFL, I think they should put more emphasis on elite cornerback play, too, but we'll see how that works out.

I'm not saying this is any kind of scientific analysis with great meaning coming from its results, but the analysis is based on Pro Bowl players drafted per year; it's the average number per year. So if you've been a GM for seven years, it's your total number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 7. If you've been a GM for 20 years, it's your number of Pro Bowl draftees divided by 20. Again, not a conclusive look at anything, but not ridiculous as a method of comparison and isn't slanted against Ballard or any other GM with fewer years.

This raises the question of whether Ballard has been better at acquiring Pro Bowl-caliber players by trade or free agency than other GMs. The conventional thinking on Ballard has been that acquiring talent through the draft is his strength.

I ran across this analysis on Reddit showing Ballard having the second-lowest rate per year of drafting Pro Bowl players among NFL GMs with a tenure of at least five years. I was kind of surprised by it, but it fits the narrative of him putting together a solid team, but one that's mostly lacking in superstars. I hope this improves with the results of our promising 2023 and 2024 drafts. The GMs Chris Ballard, Colts (7 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Quenton Nelson, Shaq Leonard, Jonathan Taylor (3) All-Pros per season: 0.4 Eric DeCosta, Ravens (5 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Justin Madubuike, Patrick Queen, Devin Duvernay, Kyle Hamilton (4) All-Pros per season: 0.8 Jon Robinson, Former Titans (7 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Jack Conklin, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, Jeffery Simmons, AJ Brown (5) All-Pros per season: 0.7 Brian Gutenkunst, Packers (7 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Jaire Alexander (1) All-Pros per season: 0.1 Brett Veach, Chiefs (7 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Patrick Mahomes (thank you u/darcys_beard), Mecole Hardman, Creed Humphrey, Trent McDuffie (3) All-Pros per season: 0.4 Brandon Beane, Bills (7 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Tre White, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Wyatt Teller, Taron Johnson (5) All-Pros per season: 0.7 Jon Lynch, 49ers (7 seasons) All-Pros drafted: George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Talanoa Hufanga (6) All-Pros per season: 0.9 Chris Grier, Dolphins (8 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Xavien Howard, Jakeem Grant, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jason Sanders (4) All-Pros per season: 0.5 Jason Licht, Buccaneers (10 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devin White, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr (5) All-Pros per season: 0.5 Les Snead, Rams (12 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Janoris Jenkins, Greg Zuerlein, Alec Ogletree, Aaron Donald, Todd Gurley, Pharoh Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua (9) All-Pros per season: 0.8 Howie Roseman, Eagles (14 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, Jordan Poyer, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts (7) All-Pros per season: 0.5 John Schneider, Seahawks (14 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Michael Dickson, DK Metcalf (8) All-Pros per season: 0.6 Stephen Jones, Cowboys de facto (14 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Sean Lee, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence, Byron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Leighton Vander Esch, Cee Dee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, Tyler Smith (16) All-Pros per season: 1.1 Kevin Colbert, Former Steelers (22 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Antwaan Randle-El, Troy Polamalu, Lawrence Timmons, LaMarr Woodley, Maurkice Pouncey, Antonio Brown, Cam Heyward, David DeCastro, Le'Veon Bell, TJ Watt, Diontae Johnson (11) All-Pros per season: 0.5 Mickey Loomis, Saints (22 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Jamaal Brown, Reggie Bush, Jahri Evans, Carl Nicks, Malcolm Jenkins, Thomas Morstead, Jimmy Graham, Cam Jordan, Terron Armstead, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Trey Hendrickson (13) All-Pros per season: 0.6 Bill Belichick, Former Patriots (24 seasons) All-Pros drafted: Tom Brady, Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Dan Koppen, Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Light, Jerod Mayo, Matthew Slater, Sebastian Vollmer, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Marcus Cannon, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Nate Ebner, Joe Thuney, Jake Bailey, Marcus Jones (21) All-Pros per season: 0.9

Give me an example of that. A report by a reporter from a legit news organization that doesn't at least attempt to give the subject a chance to respond. I think you can find bad journalism examples of what you're saying is common, but I don't think you can find good journalism examples - by which I mean examples from well-respected reporters and well-respected media. What you're suggesting is okay definitely isn't okay based on what they teach in journalism schools.

I agree with you that teams aren't basing draft decisions on what Bob McGinn is reporting. But I disagree that McGinn's reporting is okay here. In journalism, you don't get to share bad opinions of people without giving the person who is being criticized a chance to respond in the report. If a reporter wrote about a professional in the community, let's say a prominent real estate agent, and reported that other unnamed people thought the real estate agent had wild mood swings due to badly controlled diabetes and was unmanageable, would that reporting be okay? I'd suggest that if a reporter managed to get that into print without giving the real estate agent a chance to respond, you'd likely see the reporter and whoever approved the story fired.

Thank you guys for sharing these links. Having seen the full column now, I'd say the columnist had a responsibility to get someone on Mitchell's side of the story to comment before printing this report. That's how journalism is supposed to work. He should have talked to Mitchell, his parents, and/or his college coaches to put these stories about Mitchell not managing his diabetes well (which I understand can be very challenging) into context and find out more about whether they are true. How can you report that a player is almost uncoachable without talking to his coaches? That's unprofessional.