Breaking down Pats v Colts..

[JimJaime]

Colts O line v Pats D line:

 

IMO neither is very impressive, but the Pats D line is healthy and more talented. (Slight edge NE)

 

 

Colts WR/TE v Pats Secondary:  Pats secondary is their strength. (Looks worse because the front 7 usually fail get pressure) Also sounds like the Colts WR are injured. (Did I read TY isn’t playing?) edge: NE

 

PATS O line v Colts dline:  I have not seen many Colts game outside of highlights.. but I know the Pats Oline is like Jekyll and Hyde.. edge Colts

 

pats WR/te V Colts Secondary: this all depends if Gronk can play or not. But Edelman is back and Gordon looks good hmm edge: (Rose Pats colored glasses in) Pats

 

prediction: itsnow October and this is in the Razor:  Pats 42 Colts 24... the big difference the Pats are able run the ball with Michel who gets over 100 yards and 2 TDs

[AZColt11]

No offense, and you did a good job breaking down the matchups, but it's just hard to even think about this when it's likely a losing proposition.  The team is 1-3, they are severely short-handed, and they are going back to their house of horrors on a short week right after the Pats just made the 3-0 Dolphins look stupid.  The Colts best WR likely won't play.  Their best LB left the stadium wearing a walking boot.  They can't run the ball and Andrew Luck is running for his life.  I'm not real sure any of that is actually going to matter come Thursday.  Still, I'm gonna watch the carnage as I always do.  But instead of matchups I would just say the Pats are better and I would be highly surprised if this game is even close.  These are two teams in very different stages of development.

[Reality Check]

Here is a simpler analysis....

 

1) Look at Patriot's performances at home this year (vs. Houston/Watson & Miami/Tanneyhill)

2) Look at Patriot's performance on the road this year (vs Jax /Bortles & Detroit/Stafford)

 

It is this simple...  Pats cheat at home.  No chance for Indy on Thursday night.

[DaveA1102]

I know it may not be a major angle coming into this game, but I think Turbin being back could really be a catalyst for our run game starting to do something.  Having "change of pace" guys along with Turbo's ability to run downfield and pick up short downs could make us a threat....finally.

 

I still think it will be too much to ask though, especially when we will likely be without WR1, LT1, TE1, CB1 but hopefully another decent performance and onto better things with a run of winnable games and a long week to get people healthy.

[lollygagger8]

Just please don't play as much zone as the Colts did against the Texans.

 

Plus Indy D got picked apart on that same play to a WR maybe 15-20 yards by the sideline like 10x. 

 

And leave Hines at WR. 

[rockywoj]

12 minutes ago, DaveA1102 said:

I know it may not be a major angle coming into this game, but I think Turbin being back could really be a catalyst for our run game starting to do something.  Having "change of pace" guys along with Turbo's ability to run downfield and pick up short downs could make us a threat....finally.

 

I still think it will be too much to ask though, especially when we will likely be without WR1, LT1, TE1, CB1 but hopefully another decent performance and onto better things with a run of winnable games and a long week to get people healthy.

I forgot about Turbin coming back.  It will be interesting to see if and how the offensive game plan might be surprisingly different with him back on the field.

[Tsarquise]

Yeah, Pats win.

[csmopar]

3 hours ago, JimJaime said:

Colts O line v Pats D line:

 

IMO neither is very impressive, but the Pats D line is healthy and more talented. (Slight edge NE)

 

 

Colts WR/TE v Pats Secondary:  Pats secondary is their strength. (Looks worse because the front 7 usually fail get pressure) Also sounds like the Colts WR are injured. (Did I read TY isn’t playing?) edge: NE

 

PATS O line v Colts dline:  I have not seen many Colts game outside of highlights.. but I know the Pats Oline is like Jekyll and Hyde.. edge Colts

 

pats WR/te V Colts Secondary: this all depends if Gronk can play or not. But Edelman is back and Gordon looks good hmm edge: (Rose Pats colored glasses in) Pats

 

prediction: itsnow October and this is in the Razor:  Pats 42 Colts 24... the big difference the Pats are able run the ball with Michel who gets over 100 yards and 2 TDs

I'm not sure I'd give New England's D that much credit.  They're tied for second to last in sacks, are racked 13th in the AFC in total yards allowed. Passing Defense is ranked 14th in the AFC. 13th in the afc in total yards allowed. The only D category that they rank in the top 10 in the AFC in is rushing D.  Which they rank number 2.  Their secondary is NOT a strength. 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&statisticCategory=SACKS&conference=AFC&role=OPP&season=2018&seasonType=REG

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=0011&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&season=2018&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go


Colts D ranks 8th in the AFC against the pass, somehow. 1st in sacks with 17, 9th against the run, 9th in total yards allowed.

 

Now I think we have our hands full against NE, they have our number per usual. But it's gonna be Tom Brady and the home field that beat us. Their D doesn't scare me, we cant run the ball against a middle school team anyway. As long as we can get Luck time, I think he can keep us in the game and keep it close.

[IinD]

Dear Santa:

All I want for Christmas is to beat the % out of the Patriots. 

 

-----Me

[Chrisaaron1023]

3 hours ago, JimJaime said:

the big difference the Pats are able run the ball with Michel who gets over 100 yards and 2 TDs

I agree with everything but this. I'm not sure Michel will get over 100. That's one improvement this Colts team has had.

 

But we are way over matched. Eldeman is back, and they'll start their annual "we're *" tour. And like someone else said. The Pats at home vs on the road so far...

 

It's a good thing Pats get

Chiefs

Vikings

Packers

at Gillette 

[GoColts00]

56 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

Here is a simpler analysis....

 

1) Look at Patriot's performances at home this year (vs. Houston/Watson & Miami/Tanneyhill)

2) Look at Patriot's performance on the road this year (vs Jax /Bortles & Detroit/Stafford)

 

It is this simple...  Pats cheat at home.  No chance for Indy on Thursday night.

I honestly believe they hack the playcall signal. That would be why Peyton had 3 plays called out to him and he would pick 1 in the huddle.

[JimJaime]

6 minutes ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

I agree with everything but this. I'm not sure Michel will get over 100. That's one improvement this Colts team has had.

 

But we are way over matched. Eldeman is back, and they'll start their annual "we're *" tour. And like someone else said. The Pats at home vs on the road so far...

 

It's a good thing Pats get

Chiefs

Vikings

Packers

at Gillette 

Packers and Vikings don’t scare me.. especially with the way the Viking D has looked lately.. I mean the Bills scorched that defense. Packers D is well a clone of the Pats and well it will depends on the health of both #12 in that game who wins. 

 

As for the run defense.. against the bengals Mixon ran for 95 yards and the team 103 yards and over 4 yards a carry.

 

against the eagles you gave up over 140 yards on the ground then averaging more than 4 yards a carry.

 

Texans and Skins the Colts did amazing! The reason I THOUGHT Michel go off  is because if you load the box stop him Brady will kill you.. and well I figured your coaches dare Brady to run the ball instead of pass it.  I could be totally wrong but that was my thought process on it.

[JimJaime]

1 hour ago, Reality Check said:

Here is a simpler analysis....

 

1) Look at Patriot's performances at home this year (vs. Houston/Watson & Miami/Tanneyhill)

2) Look at Patriot's performance on the road this year (vs Jax /Bortles & Detroit/Stafford)

 

It is this simple...  Pats cheat at home.  No chance for Indy on Thursday night.

Sigh look at how Pats played in September for like 18 years then look how they play October on.. it’s not cheating, but BB testing September as an expansion of preseason.. but I’m guessing yelling “they cheat” makes it easier for some to handle.

[pgt_rob]

3 hours ago, JimJaime said:

Colts O line v Pats D line:

 

IMO neither is very impressive, but the Pats D line is healthy and more talented. (Slight edge NE)

 

 

Colts WR/TE v Pats Secondary:  Pats secondary is their strength. (Looks worse because the front 7 usually fail get pressure) Also sounds like the Colts WR are injured. (Did I read TY isn’t playing?) edge: NE

 

PATS O line v Colts dline:  I have not seen many Colts game outside of highlights.. but I know the Pats Oline is like Jekyll and Hyde.. edge Colts

 

pats WR/te V Colts Secondary: this all depends if Gronk can play or not. But Edelman is back and Gordon looks good hmm edge: (Rose Pats colored glasses in) Pats

 

prediction: itsnow October and this is in the Razor:  Pats 42 Colts 24... the big difference the Pats are able run the ball with Michel who gets over 100 yards and 2 TDs

 

The Colts are so injured and short handed they are no match to almost any team right now. Not a good look for the Colts. They are much better than this, but can never stay healthy. Patriots will win most definitely, no need to compare anything.

[csmopar]

On 10/1/2018 at 10:23 AM, IinD said:

Dear Santa:

All I want for Christmas is to beat the % out of the Patriots. 

 

-----Me

seriously, we could go 2-14 on the season, IF we curb stomp the Patriots, its a successful season and I'll be almost as happy as I'd be if we were to win the Superbowl.

[Reality Check]

On 10/1/2018 at 10:48 AM, csmopar said:

seriously, we could go 2-14 on the season, IF we curb stomp the Patriots, its a successful season and I'll be almost as happy as I'd be if we were to win the Superbowl.

When fans make comments like this, it makes me believe that he Patriots are in their heads.

Who really believes that a regular season game should even be mentioned in the same sentence as winning a SB?

[Coffeedrinker]

To me the Patriots are like the Colts, they have looked good in only one game this season.

 

A few things in the Patriots favor:

BB is always good at developing and running counter running plays which is the bane of cover 2 type defenses.

Edelman and Gronck are great at finding open areas in zone coverage and Brady is good at seeing them and getting the ball there.

 

Some things in the Colts favor:

Reich showed in the SB last year that he can read BBs mind on initial game plan and in game adjustments.

Possibly no TY Hilton.  I know that may seem like a negative against the Colts and I'm a huge TY fan but with TY on the field Luck just about always looks to him first and BB has always done a great job of taking Hilton out of the game.  With Hilton Luck was looking every where and finding the open guy.

The defensive front 4 of the Colts.  2 games in a row with 5 plus sacks... As great as Brady is when he gets hit a couple of times he gets mad, he starts crying to the refs and if he doesn't get the calls then he starts to force things and he's not nearly as effective at that point.  Add to that, the Colts have a great rotation in that front 4 so it won't be like the Atlanta SB a couple of years ago where the defense was too tired in the 4th quarter and couldn't do anything.

 

Some things up in the air.

 

Luck just came off throwing the ball 62 times and it's a short week.  Even if he had never been injured, I would wonder about how quickly his arm and hand strength will tire.

 

Offensive line, especially the tackles.  I for one think that AC will be ready (I think they held him out against Houston because of the short week this week but that is just speculation on my part.  With AC back I give the edge to the Colts line vs the Pats Dline/lbers.  Without AC the edge goes to the Pats.

 

RBs - I don't really expect much from Turbin this week.  4 weeks out of football, no PEDs.  It will be tough for him to have much of an impact.

 

Hines:  Had a good game against Houston as a receiver but all 4 games they have been using him as a decoy, sending him in motion but not getting him the ball at all in those situations.  Is this the week they finally stop using him as a decoy?

 

All in all, I think I expect the Patriots to win, but I won't be shocked if the Colts play it tough and pull out a victory.

[csmopar]

29 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

When fans make comments like this, it makes me believe that he Patriots are in their heads.

Who really believes that a regular season game should even be mentioned in the same sentence as winning a SB?

Maybe, but I wanna see the Patriots slaughtered once by Luck and Co.

[Finball]

3 hours ago, csmopar said:

I'm not sure I'd give New England's D that much credit.  They're tied for second to last in sacks, are racked 13th in the AFC in total yards allowed. Passing Defense is ranked 14th in the AFC. 13th in the afc in total yards allowed. The only D category that they rank in the top 10 in the AFC in is rushing D.  Which they rank number 2.  Their secondary is NOT a strength. 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&statisticCategory=SACKS&conference=AFC&role=OPP&season=2018&seasonType=REG

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=0011&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&season=2018&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=false&Submit=Go


Colts D ranks 8th in the AFC against the pass, somehow. 1st in sacks with 17, 9th against the run, 9th in total yards allowed.

 

Now I think we have our hands full against NE, they have our number per usual. But it's gonna be Tom Brady and the home field that beat us. Their D doesn't scare me, we cant run the ball against a middle school team anyway. As long as we can get Luck time, I think he can keep us in the game and keep it close.

 

Secondary is the strength of their D but that's not saying much.. It lacks talent and athletes. Gilmore is the only Pro Bowl talent they have. McCourty and Hightower have regressed badly. They are good at stopping the run as BB teams focus heavily on that but their interior offers no pass rush and their LBs can't cover. They always give up yards in exchange for eliminating big play and then tighten up in the red zone where space gets smaller and their big, physical players have bigger advantage at stopping other team from getting into the end zone.

 

 

We should be able to move the ball and in 12 personnel we should've one of their LBs against one of our TEs (Chung is usually matched up against one TE) and take advantage of that, or use out backs more in the receiving game. Our soft zone against Brady worries me, Brady usually carves them up. 

[dgambill]

This is why they need to do away with Thursday night games or only do them coming off a bye. This game is going to be devoid of star power. I believe Gronk and TY both will likely be out. We also are probably going to be missing a third of our secondary and I know you guys have some banged up guys as well. I would be surprised if this is close. Without TY and likely Leonard who has been outstanding this year we really are going to struggle. Throw in we are starting back ups at both tackles...I'm not looking forward to the game.

[IinD]

3 hours ago, Reality Check said:

When fans make comments like this, it makes me believe that he Patriots are in their heads.

Who really believes that a regular season game should even be mentioned in the same sentence as winning a SB?

It doesn't matter what fans think though. 

Plenty of fans in the NFL hate opposing teams. Rivalries exist in every sort.

 

You do remember them knocking us out of the playoffs more then once in the early 00's?

 

I'll hate them forever even when they're a doormat team in a couple of years.

[nnjcoltsman]

A Redskins fan, an Eagles fan, a Patriots fan, and a Colts fan are climbing a mountain and arguing about who loves his team more. The Redskins fan insists he is the most loyal. 'This is for the Redskins! ' he yells, and jumps off the side of the mountain. Not to be outdone, the Eagles fan shouts, 'This is for the Eagles!' and throws himself off the mountain. The Colts fan is next to profess his love for his team. He yells, 'This is for everyone!' and pushes the Patriots fan off the mountain.

[NorthernBlue]

The Patriots are way better probably and are always good in October and like the Colts haven't beaten em since 4th and 2, and have lots of flaws and are too young to compete in NE right now. Short week, team is injured, Luck just threw a bunch so who knows how his arm is doing (he'll be fine, but still). Legit I see no logical way in which the Colts are winning. 

 

I don't care. Colts are winning . Don't know how. Don't know why. But they're winning. 

Final Score:

Colts - A bunch of points

Patriots - Less than that

[GoPats]

6 hours ago, GoColts00 said:

I honestly believe they hack the playcall signal. That would be why Peyton had 3 plays called out to him and he would pick 1 in the huddle.

 

Might I ask how you think this is being pulled off? 

 

The Patriots had three losses in 2017. Two were at home.

 

They had two losses in 2016. Both were at home.

 

So prior to this season, four of their last five losses were not on the road. 

 

The data does not support your theory...

 

[RollerColt]

Another stat against us. Tom Brady is undefeated on short weeks. 

 

We are 10.5 point underdogs going in to this. So basically if we win Las Vegas will melt down. 

[Creekside]

Edelman is playing. He's back from a 4 game suspension.

 

That's all I need to know, to watch this game with both eyes shut.

[IinD]

2 hours ago, nnjcoltsman said:

A Redskins fan, an Eagles fan, a Patriots fan, and a Colts fan are climbing a mountain and arguing about who loves his team more. The Redskins fan insists he is the most loyal. 'This is for the Redskins! ' he yells, and jumps off the side of the mountain. Not to be outdone, the Eagles fan shouts, 'This is for the Eagles!' and throws himself off the mountain. The Colts fan is next to profess his love for his team. He yells, 'This is for everyone!' and pushes the Patriots fan off the mountain.

Good one.. Haha.

 

When I tell it the Colts fan will kick the Pats fan before pushing him off the cliff...

[Introspect]

 

 

 

We are in trouble..... But as long they can keep it within 10 points I'm cool

[Flying Elvis]

5 hours ago, dgambill said:

This is why they need to do away with Thursday night games or only do them coming off a bye. This game is going to be devoid of star power. I believe Gronk and TY both will likely be out. We also are probably going to be missing a third of our secondary and I know you guys have some banged up guys as well. I would be surprised if this is close. Without TY and likely Leonard who has been outstanding this year we really are going to struggle. Throw in we are starting back ups at both tackles...I'm not looking forward to the game.

Thursday games are a joke. It's just a money grab. Coaches hate 'em. Players hate 'em. Four days isn't enough time for players to recover but playing after the bye is a good idea.

[Reality Check]

17 hours ago, IinD said:

It doesn't matter what fans think though. 

Plenty of fans in the NFL hate opposing teams. Rivalries exist in every sort.

 

You do remember them knocking us out of the playoffs more then once in the early 00's?

 

I'll hate them forever even when they're a doormat team in a couple of years.

You tell us "it doesn't matter what fans think"...then you proceed to tell us all what you think...

 

I am tempted to tell you that your thoughts do not matter... but, personally, I appreciate them! 

[John Waylon]

Yeah but the rivalry is back on. 

[Coffeedrinker]

16 hours ago, GoPats said:

 

Might I ask how you think this is being pulled off? 

 

The Patriots had three losses in 2017. Two were at home.

 

They had two losses in 2016. Both were at home.

 

So prior to this season, four of their last five losses were not on the road. 

 

The data does not support your theory...

 

Not only does the data not support the theory it also ignores the fact that was Tom Moore's system... call three plays, let the QB get to the line and check to the play the QB thought had the best chance of succeeding.  He did that against every team not just the Pats

4 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

Yeah but the rivalry is back on. 

This game will determine if the rivalry is back on or not.

[aaron11]

their fans still hate us if you check their message boards, but its tough to call it a rivalry when we have not won since 11/15 2009 the 4th and 2 game.

 

it will be funny if we win this one, but that doesnt seem likely with most of our good skill players out 

[IinD]

44 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

You tell us "it doesn't matter what fans think"...then you proceed to tell us all what you think...

 

I am tempted to tell you that your thoughts do not matter... but, personally, I appreciate them! 

I was commenting on when you said 'when fans say this it shows NE is in their head'.  My point was it doesn't matter if they're in our heads, they still have to play. 

[DraftMaster]

Must win game to get back on track. With that said Pats should win. 

[indyagent17]

We need help from the Almighty to win this one,

 

Too many key pieces out and even if all could play it would still be an uphill battle 

[krunk]

I think Luck is going to have a pretty decent amount of time to stand back there and deliver some strikes. I think the offense is going to get some things going in this one.

[dgambill]

17 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Thursday games are a joke. It's just a money grab. Coaches hate 'em. Players hate 'em. Four days isn't enough time for players to recover but playing after the bye is a good idea.

I'd rather see the NFL go to 18 games and two bye weeks....won't happen but to me have 1 preseason game and get on with it....and nobody should play a Thursday night game after a Sunday game. We played basically 5 quarters...this team is beat up....I don't know how much we have in the tank....which is sad football for us fans..and dangerous to the players.

[dgambill]

20 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Another stat against us. Tom Brady is undefeated on short weeks. 

 

We are 10.5 point underdogs going in to this. So basically if we win Las Vegas will melt down. 

I'm pretty sure Buffalo was bigger dogs to Minnesota and Vegas is still there.....but yes we are a big underdog. lol

[Four2itus]

As I have always said, I would rather be wrong in predicting my team will win, than be right in predicting my team will lose. 

 

Colts win.