Pat Kirwin - “Colts would be Crazy to pass on ...”

[rockywoj]

On today’s Moving The Chains on Sirius XM, Pat Kirwin (whom I respect very much) said, if Quento Nelson is there at six, “The Colts would be crazy to pass on Quenton Nelson.”  He then went on to critique all of the ways that Quenton Nelson would improve pretty much every facet of the Colts” offense.

 

I concur.  Finish fixing the OL if he’s there for the taking!

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

2 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

On today’s Moving The Chains on Sirius XM, Pat Kirwin (whom I respect very much) said, if Quento Nelson is there at six, “The Colts would be crazy to pass on Quenton Nelson.”  He then went on to critique all of the ways that Quenton Nelson would improve pretty much every facet of the Colts” offense.

 

I concur.  Finish fixing the OL if he’s there for the taking!

YUP YUP

[Four2itus]

I think it will be Chubb....but I want that young man on this line. He would be my choice. 

[BProland85]

Ballard needs to come out of the 6th overall pick with either Chubb or Nelson. One of them should be there. I’d rather get one of these elite players than trade down. Unless Miami or Buffalo gave up a kings ransom. 

[tweezy32]

8 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Ballard needs to come out of the 6th overall pick with either Chubb or Nelson. One of them should be there. I’d rather get one of these elite players than trade down. Unless Miami or Buffalo gave up a kings ransom. 

I vote kings ransom!  

[PeterBowman]

Nelson would be an immense help on the O line and would turn the left side of the line into possibly an upper echelon unit in the league.

With that said.....I'd be hard pressed to take him at 6 (if Chubb is gone) because it is such a deep draft in interior line. And given how thin they are at linebacker and either Edmunds or Smith being a huge boost to the lbers. 

The talent pool of guards after the first round is MUCH better than the talent pool of linebackers etc.

 

Buuuut......I still wouldn't be upset if they chose Nelson either.....honestly they're in a great spot to still get a blue chip prospect AND potentially kill it in the 2nd and 3rd round.

[TdungyW/12]

48 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

On today’s Moving The Chains on Sirius XM, Pat Kirwin (whom I respect very much) said, if Quento Nelson is there at six, “The Colts would be crazy to pass on Quenton Nelson.”  He then went on to critique all of the ways that Quenton Nelson would improve pretty much every facet of the Colts” offense.

 

I concur.  Finish fixing the OL if he’s there for the taking!

He is great yeah but, Chubb will help this def more for the team and CB has already stated that there is enough talent in the second round to fix the O-line. 

 

Woild u seriously pass on chubb in Nelson and Chubb are there?

[Boiler_Colt]

Chubb will absolutely be gone by #6. Nelson should be the pick. I love Roquan Smith too, but Nelson is big time.

[rockywoj]

The assumption is Chubb is gone before pick number six. 

 

As for OL talent in the 2nd round, if the first pick is Nelson, then in the 2nd round you get one more OL to seal the deal of fixing the OL. 

[rockywoj]

7 minutes ago, Boiler_Colt said:

Chubb will absolutely be gone by #6. Nelson should be the pick. I love Roquan Smith too, but Nelson is big time.

I was actually wanting to ask Kirwin, if it were him, would he go Nelson or Roquan Smith at six?   Didn’t have to ask him, as he answered it definitively, in response to some other caller asking if Nelson could still be there for the Bears. 

[NewColtsFan]

For what it's worth....

 

A day or two ago, Kirwin, who I think is great, said he'd understand and support Ballard practically no matter what he does....

 

Take Chubb?   He's fine. Nelson or Barkley?   He's good.   Trade down a little and get pick(s) he's good.   Trade down even more and get a bigger haul, and he's still good with Ballard.

 

He basically says our roster SUCKS and we need lots and lots of help.

 

My point is this...   don't read too much into any one comment.  Because Kirwin has said a different thing most every time he's been asked.   And for the most part, that's ok in our case.

 

Again, Ballard has put the Colts in a win-win scenario.   We should be ok no matter what he does.  

 

(Now someone please remind me that I wrote this if I don't like what Ballard does next Thursday or Friday!)      

[LockeDown]

Most people want Nelson in order to protect Luck, but think about running behind this guy.  If it's 3rd down and 1, run Jones or Turbin behind Nelson and it's almost an automatic 1st down.  It would be a huge benefit to have someone that keeps the chains moving.   However, if Chubbs is there, I think CB takes him.  

[CopenhagenColt]

3 hours ago, TdungyW/12 said:

He is great yeah but, Chubb will help this def more for the team and CB has already stated that there is enough talent in the second round to fix the O-line. 

 

Woild u seriously pass on chubb in Nelson and Chubb are there?

Yes. Without any hesitation. Wouldn't blink

[NorthernBlue]

As we get closer to the draft, I’m more and more convinced that it’s whoever is there between Chubb, Nelson, and Barkley. And if it’s neither, it’ll be Smith.

[TdungyW/12]

1 hour ago, CopenhagenColt said:

Yes. Without any hesitation. Wouldn't blink

I actually don’t care if either are there lol .... either way we are better. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

9 hours ago, rockywoj said:

On today’s Moving The Chains on Sirius XM, Pat Kirwin (whom I respect very much) said, if Quento Nelson is there at six, “The Colts would be crazy to pass on Quenton Nelson.”  He then went on to critique all of the ways that Quenton Nelson would improve pretty much every facet of the Colts” offense.

 

I concur.  Finish fixing the OL if he’s there for the taking!

 

But here is what else he says... the chasm from B. Chubb to the next pass rushers is much bigger then the gap from top guy to next guy at other positions... and Mark Dominick or Phil Savage (can't remember which) says you never pass on a potential double digit sack guy.

 

He also says Nelson is the next 'Alan Faneca'.  Run behind him, or pull him and run then behind him.  Upping the run game ante...

[rockywoj]

3 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

But here is what else he says... the chasm from B. Chubb to the next pass rushers is much bigger then the gap from top guy to next guy at other positions... and Mark Dominick or Phil Savage (can't remember which) says you never pass on a potential double digit sack guy.

 

He also says Nelson is the next 'Alan Faneca'.  Run behind him, or pull him and run then behind him.  Upping the run game ante...

Like said earlier, the assumption in saying what he did about Nelson is that Chubb is gone, thus making your point moot.

[AZColt11]

I would be happy with either Chubb or Nelson.  Chubb would be my first pick SIMPLY because of the positions, whereas DE is harder to find than OG.  With that said, a LOT of experts think Nelson is the best prospect in this draft regardless of position.  Either would be just fine with me.  And I think if you are rebuilding, why not start up front?

[BProland85]

6 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

I would be happy with either Chubb or Nelson.  Chubb would be my first pick SIMPLY because of the positions, whereas DE is harder to find than OG.  With that said, a LOT of experts think Nelson is the best prospect in this draft regardless of position.  Either would be just fine with me.  And I think if you are rebuilding, why not start up front?

 

Couldn't have said it better myself. Completely agree with building through the trenches first and foremost. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

There's always one thing about the draft, there are going to be surprises!  We 'think' we know what is going to happen... we are pretty sure who is coming off the board early.  What we don't know is what teams, what order- both player and team slot.  Bears traded up to #2 for Trubisky last year, and Chiefs went from #27 up to #10 for Patrick Mahomes. Texans went from #25 to #12 to take Watson.  Seems like people fall right at the draft for various reasons (gas masks pix, etc).  Some plahyers gets taken well before others ecpected, becasue a team doesn't want to mis out on the guy.

 

I expect there will some surprises somewhere this year too, I just don't know where it is coming from.  But, then it wouldn't be a surprise anymore, would it?

[csmopar]

15 hours ago, PeterBowman said:

Nelson would be an immense help on the O line and would turn the left side of the line into possibly an upper echelon unit in the league.

With that said.....I'd be hard pressed to take him at 6 (if Chubb is gone) because it is such a deep draft in interior line. And given how thin they are at linebacker and either Edmunds or Smith being a huge boost to the lbers. 

The talent pool of guards after the first round is MUCH better than the talent pool of linebackers etc.

 

Buuuut......I still wouldn't be upset if they chose Nelson either.....honestly they're in a great spot to still get a blue chip prospect AND potentially kill it in the 2nd and 3rd round.

imagine this, Nelson, and then a RG and RT in the 2nd/3rd rounds.  We "could" "fix" the line in 1 draft, potentially. 

[Luck 4 president]

I’d rather take Chubb then 2 of Hernandez, Wynn, price, Williams, Miller, ragnow with our next picks depending on whose there

[dw49]

12 hours ago, NorthernBlue said:

As we get closer to the draft, I’m more and more convinced that it’s whoever is there between Chubb, Nelson, and Barkley. And if it’s neither, it’ll be Smith.

 

 

Yep

[dgambill]

It would be very difficult for me seeing one of Chubb, Nelson, or Barkley not there at 6. I think we would take any of them. To me round 2 with 3 picks we just go after the pieces we missed....likely OL, LB, RB, WR. Whatever we don't get in round 1 we take in round 2 and 3. I'm not sure we double up on lineman but even that is possible...maybe a tackle and a guard. A great draft to me would be something like

1.6 DE Chubb

2.36  OG Wynn/ OT O'neill

2.37 OT O'neill/ CB Davis

2.49 LB Jefferson

3.67 RB Penny/RB Ballage

4.104 WR Gallup

 

Anyways...just a week to go now....we won't have to worry much longer.

[jskinnz]

5 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

There's always one thing about the draft, there are going to be surprises!  We 'think' we know what is going to happen... we are pretty sure who is coming off the board early.  What we don't know is what teams, what order- both player and team slot.  Bears traded up to #2 for Trubisky last year, and Chiefs went from #27 up to #10 for Patrick Mahomes. Texans went from #25 to #12 to take Watson.  Seems like people fall right at the draft for various reasons (gas masks pix, etc).  Some plahyers gets taken well before others ecpected, becasue a team doesn't want to mis out on the guy.

 

I expect there will some surprises somewhere this year too, I just don't know where it is coming from.  But, then it wouldn't be a surprise anymore, would it?

 

As you pointed out in last year's draft, I think the same will be true this year.  The variables are the QB's and where they go.  Four teams with picks right in front of Indy need QB's and that includes Denver.  Or if their pick is really for sale as was suggested earlier, my guess is the buyer is a QB needy team.

 

I don't think it is that incomprehensible that between Chubb, Barkley and Nelson, two are there at pick # 6.

[IinD]

As long as Ballard doesn't try to out think himself we should be fine with any of those top guys.

 

Don't go Grigson and pull out a Dorsett and I think it'll be an automatic upgrade at the position chosen.

[Indyfan4life]

The Giants said they won’t be drafting a QB at 2nd, which puts them in the running for Barkley/Chubb/Nelson. 

 

Of course they could be blowing smoke. 

[CopenhagenColt]

34 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

The Giants said they won’t be drafting a QB at 2nd, which puts them in the running for Barkley/Chubb/Nelson. 

 

Of course they could be blowing smoke. 

I think they'll take Chubb.

[krunk]

I thought this was interesting what Polian and Dungy said when it came to drafting Freeney:

 

“Bill had seen Dwight and thought he was exactly the guy I had been talking about,” Dungy said of Freeney. “We’re sitting at No. 11 in the first round and people looked at his size and thought it was too high to draft him. Bill, to his credit, said, ‘If this is going to be the big piece of the puzzle, let’s not worry about where we take Dwight and what other people think. Let’s get the guy who is going to be the perfect piece.’ Dwight was the straw that stirred the drink.”http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/Dwight-Freeney-Calling-It-A-Career-Will-Retire-As-A-Colt/5abba383-6f99-4187-8e62-397b88500e95

 

Now this year when it comes to Nelson people are saying it's too high to draft Nelson because he's a Guard. Wonder if Reich and Ballard come to the same conclusion as Polian and Dungy?

[ColtsBlueFL]

2 hours ago, krunk said:

{snip}

 

Now this year when it comes to Nelson people are saying it's too high to draft Nelson because he's a Guard. Wonder if Reich and Ballard come to the same conclusion as Polian and Dungy?

 

I feel most GM's do.  Polian always said that "if you listen to the fans, you'll soon be sitting with them."

[Track Guy]

Fixing the O-line once and for all feels like it's a must. Quenton Nelson would be an incredible pick up. I can understand if there is a really good trade back option, but if we do stay at 6 I would root for Nelson. Last year we took the BPA in Hooker, this year Nelson is the best prospect in the draft imo. 

[Dr. T]

17 hours ago, krunk said:

I thought this was interesting what Polian and Dungy said when it came to drafting Freeney:

 

“Bill had seen Dwight and thought he was exactly the guy I had been talking about,” Dungy said of Freeney. “We’re sitting at No. 11 in the first round and people looked at his size and thought it was too high to draft him. Bill, to his credit, said, ‘If this is going to be the big piece of the puzzle, let’s not worry about where we take Dwight and what other people think. Let’s get the guy who is going to be the perfect piece.’ Dwight was the straw that stirred the drink.”http://www.colts.com/news/article-1/Dwight-Freeney-Calling-It-A-Career-Will-Retire-As-A-Colt/5abba383-6f99-4187-8e62-397b88500e95

 

Now this year when it comes to Nelson people are saying it's too high to draft Nelson because he's a Guard. Wonder if Reich and Ballard come to the same conclusion as Polian and Dungy?

You can't equate a guard with a pass rusher. Apples and oranges.

[krunk]

5 minutes ago, Dr. T said:

You can't equate a guard with a pass rusher. Apples and oranges.

That's what you and I say as a fan but teams don't always use our logic. They will go against the grain and take the guy that they like. I'm hoping they go defense, but I'll stay dissapointed for maybe 5 minutes if the pick is Nelson.

[krunk]

I remember it was fans who Booed the pick of JJ Watt.  That's how much we know when it comes to this stuff.

[ColtsBlueFL]

22 hours ago, Dr. T said:

You can't equate a guard with a pass rusher. Apples and oranges.

 

Corollary, you also never pass up a Gold Jacket guy... (Gettleman and other GM's)

I've heard Charlie Weiss say if Nelson were a OT, he's be the first pick in this draft.

[MikeCurtis]

22 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Corollary, you also never pass up a Gold Jacket guy... (Gettleman and other GM's)

I've heard Charlie Weiss say if Nelson were a OT, he's be the first pick in this draft.

I truly hate to disagree with another Colts fan..... just being a Colts fan, means that you are automatically of a higher IQ than others

 

but

 

"Gold Jacket guy"  C'mon

 

The talent evaluators arent much better than us fans........

 

Lets get an easy example

 

2013

 

Pick 1 FIRST OVERALL PICK in 2013

 

Eric Fisher - T- KC - The "EXPERTS" loved the guy

 

Current PFF Ranking - AVERAGE 78th - (even if you dont fully trust the ratings..... I bet KC would do that pick over again)

 

Pick 2 - SECOND OVERALL PICK in 2013

 

Luke Joeckel - T - Jacksonville - The "EXPERTS" loved the guy

 

Current PFF ranking - POOR 58th Guard  - I bet Jacksonville wish they wouldnt have made that pick......

 

Anything can happen, injuries, poor performance..........

 

Gold jacket dialog is premature.... dont you think?

 

The "experts" people around football 24/7  COMPLETELY missed our offseason FA darling, Andrew Norwell. he went undrafted.... now All-Pro....... And who has a MUCH beter chance of getting the "gold jacket" than ANYONE in this draft

 

Sorry for the rant........ just another fan... typing away on a key board.......

 

Being an old dude, I have EVERY YEAR..... cant miss prospects..... that miss

 

Because it seems like its a 50/50 endeavor.... more picks in the "better" rounds... seem to yield a higher success ration

 

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

31 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I truly hate to disagree with another Colts fan..... just being a Colts fan, means that you are automatically of a higher IQ than others

 

but

 

"Gold Jacket guy"  C'mon

 

The talent evaluators arent much better than us fans........

 

Lets get an easy example

 

2013

 

Pick 1 FIRST OVERALL PICK in 2013

 

Eric Fisher - T- KC - The "EXPERTS" loved the guy

 

Current PFF Ranking - AVERAGE 78th - (even if you dont fully trust the ratings..... I bet KC would do that pick over again)

 

Pick 2 - SECOND OVERALL PICK in 2013

 

Luke Joeckel - T - Jacksonville - The "EXPERTS" loved the guy

 

Current PFF ranking - POOR 58th Guard  - I bet Jacksonville wish they wouldnt have made that pick......

 

Anything can happen, injuries, poor performance..........

 

Guards do not get talked about or taken this high. Not since Chris Hinton was taken by Broncos and traded to the Colts for Elway have I heard of any.  If there are, it's probably only 1 other.  And there's this:

 

Q. Nelson - Pro Football Focus graded Nelson as having the best run block success and sixth-best in pass block *iciency in ( all of! ) college football in 2017.

 

Sounds like a potential bust... /eyeroll

 

Quote

 

Gold jacket dialog is premature.... dont you think?

 

" Y’all keep acting like Quenton. Nelson didn’t do this too... https://t.co/HAbxNIw8Xz

— Lance Zierlein (@LanceZierlein) February 3, 2018 "

 

“I should be talked about in that regard as a top-five conversation,” Nelson said. “You have guys who are dominating the NFL right now — Aaron Donald, Geno Atkins, Fletcher Cox — that have just been working on interior guys. You need guys to stop them, and I think I’m one of those guys.”

 

He's All-Pro material, and if injury doesn't derail his career, then potential Gold Jacket.

 

Quote

 

The "experts" people around football 24/7  COMPLETELY missed our offseason FA darling, Andrew Norwell. he went undrafted.... now All-Pro....... And who has a MUCH beter chance of getting the "gold jacket" than ANYONE in this draft

 

Expert miss less than fans.  Bill Polian says round 1 good draft performance is a 60% hit rate.  He says the rest of the draft is 50%, ad less at later rounds.  You hit on 52.5% of you picks in your GM career, you are hall of fame.

 

Quote

Sorry for the rant........ just another fan... typing away on a key board.......

 

Being an old dude, I have EVERY YEAR..... cant miss prospects..... that miss

 

Because it seems like its a 50/50 endeavor.... more picks in the "better" rounds... seem to yield a higher success ration

 

 

 

I hear you, but sometimes it rings in my ears "let's get a lesser player so we can also get another even lesser player along with him."

[Dark Superman]

God, I really hope we don't pass up on Nelson.

[MikeCurtis]

38 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Guards do not get talked about or taken this high. Not since Chris Hinton was taken by Broncos and traded to the Colts for Elway have I heard of any.  If there are, it's probably only 1 other.  And there's this:

 

Q. Nelson - Pro Football Focus graded Nelson as having the best run block success and sixth-best in pass block *iciency in ( all of! ) college football in 2017.

 

Sounds like a potential bust... /eyeroll

 

 

" Y’all keep acting like Quenton. Nelson didn’t do this too... https://t.co/HAbxNIw8Xz

— Lance Zierlein (@LanceZierlein) February 3, 2018 "

 

“I should be talked about in that regard as a top-five conversation,” Nelson said. “You have guys who are dominating the NFL right now — Aaron Donald, Geno Atkins, Fletcher Cox — that have just been working on interior guys. You need guys to stop them, and I think I’m one of those guys.”

 

He's All-Pro material, and if injury doesn't derail his career, then potential Gold Jacket.

 

 

Expert miss less than fans.  Bill Polian says round 1 good draft performance is a 60% hit rate.  He says the rest of the draft is 50%, ad less at later rounds.  You hit on 52.5% of you picks in your GM career, you are hall of fame.

 

 

I hear you, but sometimes it rings in my ears "let's get a lesser player so we can also get another even lesser player along with him."

 

As you can see from my prior posts... I think Nelson is an amazing talent

 

With so many holes, I think we can get a decent talent at guard at the top of round 2

 

Your words were "GOLD JACKET GUY" 

 

Thats what  I draw exception to....... you dont know (and NEITHER DO I)

 

Experts miss all the time, fans more so

 

We can agree to disagree.......   

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

57 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

As you can see from my prior posts... I think Nelson is an amazing talent

 

With so many holes, I think we can get a decent talent at guard at the top of round 2

 

Your words were "GOLD JACKET GUY" 

 

You ever hear of Alan Faneca?  This guy is on the same level, according to Pat Kirwan and others.  Yes, I realize he was 'only' an HOF Finalist this year. He has also been comped to Steve Hutrchinson, another HOF Finalist this year.  This is why he is considered top 5  and HOF potential.

 

Quote

 

Thats what  I draw exception to....... you dont know (and NEITHER DO I)

 

Experts miss all the time, fans more so

 

They don't say it definitively, they say it expectantly.  Nobody can predict how a career goes. Just a path they project it will take.  Luck is no longer on an HOF career path at the moment, and we all thought he was very likely to do so.  In addition, they didn't miss on Alan Faneca or Steve Hutchinson.  Yes, the poor 2013 draft gave us Warmack and Cooper drafted high, to underachievers, but neither were like Nelson.

 

Quote

 

We can agree to disagree.......   

 

 

Deal.