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What Are Acceptable Richardson results in yards, completion %, TDs, INTs and rushing yds this season?

Blueblazes

By Blueblazes
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Moosejawcolt Ring of Honor

Moosejawcolt

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7 minutes ago, Blueblazes said:

We know this will be a learning experience for AR this season. What are your acceptable key results for Richardson this season? 

17 games. Let's say 3800 yards, 20 picks and 17 touchdowns. That would be a good year based on where he is coming from.

Just now, Moosejawcolt said:

17 games. Let's say 3800 yards, 20 picks and 17 touchdowns. That would be a good year based on where he is coming from.

Oh and rushing for 900 yards

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AKB Ring of Honor

AKB

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29 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

just hope he can beat our win total from last year, i dont care about stats only finding a way to win is what is most important

yeah, i want like 7 wins at least. 

 

is that hoping for too much considering all the other roster factors?

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Blueblazes

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15 minutes ago, AKB said:

yeah, i want like 7 wins at least. 

 

is that hoping for too much considering all the other roster factors?

 

It really is starting to look  pretty bad, almost unraveling, when you may lose the best Rb in the league, have a qb that threw 17 TDs in college and several other holes to fill not filled in the offseason.

 

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AKB

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42 minutes ago, Blueblazes said:

 

It really is starting to look  pretty bad, almost unraveling, when you may lose the best Rb in the league, have a qb that threw 17 TDs in college and several other holes to fill not filled in the offseason.

 

im really concerned about corner.

 

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stitches

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3 hours ago, w87r said:

3500yds passing 

58% comp %

22 pass TD's

14 int

 

650yds rushing 

6 rush TD's

 

5 > fumbles lost

damn, you have high expectations :D Rookie QBs rarely have positive TD-INT ratio and you have him at +8 

 

That would be a fantastic season IMO. 

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AKB

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feels like we are gonna be in a lot of high-scoring games, and I don't know if that's gonna be good for Richardson or not. 

 

to me, it seems like a detriment. part of his success is gonna depend on the defense pausing for read action. 

 

How often is a defense gonna fall for read action when it's 3rd and 10 or longer? 

 

Just think a bad defense might be a speed bump to his development 

 

 

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LJpalmbeacher2

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Stats not important.... Progression is and improving and correcting the things he needs to. 

Even the win total is less important if they not making the playoffs. In fact, if missing the playoffs (and the way Ballard put this offense together missing the playoffs is very likely)  less wins is preferable for drafting....especially for a team that doesn't spend in FA. 

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colts89 Hall of Famer

colts89

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I read some pretty high up their expectations so far that are borderline unrealistic IMHO.

 

AR is probably going to suck this year. And we should frankly all be expecting it given his inexperience and lack of elite talent on the offense with him. The important thing is that he gradually improves.

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w87r

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

damn, you have high expectations :D Rookie QBs rarely have positive TD-INT ratio and you have him at +8 

 

That would be a fantastic season IMO. 

IDK? Probably?

 

3500yds = 206yds per game

22 TDs = 1.3tds per game

14 INTs = .8ints per game

 

650yds = 38.2yds rush per game

6 TDs = .35tds per game

 

 

Will he play that good,  perhaps not, but these aren't some.crazy unattainable numbers.

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csmopar

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15,000 yards

110% completion rate

975 total TDs

4,500 rushing yards

0 int, 0 fumbles 

 

otherwise he is a bust. Oh and that is just for game 1.  Per Holder…

 

 

:sarcasm:
 

 

in real person land, I’d say as long as he shows improvement from game 1 to game 21, I’m happy

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stitches

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

IDK? Probably?

 

3500yds = 206yds per game

22 TDs = 1.3tds per game

14 INTs = .8ints per game

 

650yds = 38.2yds rush per game

6 TDs = .35tds per game

 

 

Will he play that good,  perhaps not, but these aren't some.crazy unattainable numbers.

Jalen Hurts last season. Almost MVP

 

3700 passing yards(15 games)

22 TDs

6 INT

760 rushing yards, 13TDs

 

Just for some context... 

 

 

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w87r

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

Jalen Hurts last season. Almost MVP

 

3700 passing yards(15 games)

22 TDs

6 INT

760 rushing yards, 13TDs

 

Just for some context... 

 

 

Taking stats from 15 games and comparing them to 17 games?

 

 

Passing Yards could potentially be a little high, but again, I don't think 208yds passing a game is a very big projection. Hurts avg almost 40yds more per game than that last year.

 

 

I have Richardson throwing 2x+ amount of picks as Hurts.

 

 

I don't see how Rich won't have 500-600 yds rushing?

 

I have him having 7 less rushing TDs? 150yds less. While playing 2 games more.

 

Those 2 seasons (actual vs hypothetical) looked nothing alike

 

 

Just not so sure of reason for push back on it?

 

Is it really that much different from your projections?

 

7 hours ago, stitches said:

2800 passing yards... 55% completion 15TD/17INT

800 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs

 

 

 

3% difference on Comp %

 

 

3600 total yards vs 4150 total yards (32yds a game)

25 TDs vs 28 TDs (.18 more per game)

17 INTs vs 14 INTs (.18 less per game)

 

 

 

Like I said, just not sure, it was worth the double down with the "context....", MVP comparison post. Only big differences are passing yards and I already said that might be a little high, and I have him throwing more TDs than you do, but you have him running more TDs than I do.

 

 

Again differences:

32 total yards per game

.18 difference in total TDs

.18 difference in INTs thrown 

3% difference in completion %

 

6 hours ago, stitches said:
10 hours ago, w87r said:

 Rookie QBs rarely have positive TD-INT ratio and you have him at +8 

I don't know about that?

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/best-touchdown-to-interception-ratio-rookie-qb

 

 

And are happening more frequently.

 

 

I started my projections with the thought of 1TD /1 INT a game.

 

Went slightly below 1 for INT and a little above 1 for TDs. 

 

 

Will it flip and be the other way? Perhaps, but again still don't see the reason for the "context..." Like it was some big crazy outlandish projection, when again isn't "that" much different than yours as a whole.

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Solid84 Ring of Honor

Solid84

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6 hours ago, stitches said:

2800 passing yards... 55% completion 15TD/17INT

800 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs

 

 

 

This is about what I expect as well.

 

2500-2800 yards

54-58% completion

13-18 TDs

15-20 Ints

600-900 Yards rushing

6-10 TDs rushing

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Crunked

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50% completion range in the teens TD passing probably in the 20's INT's and throw in better than 5 less than 10 rushing TD's ..... and to me that would be progress over his 1 college year provided more of the good stats start building and the bad stats start diminishing as the year unfolds.....I expect the first 4-6 weeks to be brutal for him.  (<-) ironically that might be the same timeline of seeing Taylor on the field.....and I am saying this with the thought Taylor somehow doesn't see the field this year.......GOD love the outside talking heads attribute his improvement TO taylors return.......I am saying thats (WITHOUT Taylor input) .......it probably gives Taylor the leg up in looking even more valuable if it plays out that way though

 

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stitches

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2 hours ago, w87r said:

 

Is it really that much different from your projections?

 

I guess our biggest differences in expectations are how much he will be passing and TD/INT ratio. I expect him to run more and have more trouble with the pass... but I do expect him to be really successful running the ball. Your projection seems much more well rounded. I actually would expect those type of stats(your projection) for year 2 if he has my projection type year 1. 

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chad72 Ring of Honor

chad72

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QBR as to how well he took care of the ball w.r.t turnovers and how well he played in key 3rd down situations while making positive plays consistently.

 

Anything below 1 INT a game average, I would take. Anything above 60% completion, I would take. If we score 20-25 ppg consistently and his performance over the last quarter (of the season and games) is better than the first quarter, that is a win for the future, even if it results in just a handful of wins.

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Creekside

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The OP asks what stats are acceptable ...

 

I would certainly "accept" a first season of a one to one TD to INT ratio....say, 18 TD to 18 INT. I think this would be "acceptable" to all of us...Then in year two we could "expect" a better ratio...say,  23 TD to 16 INT.

 

 

 

 

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RollerColt Ring of Honor

RollerColt

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Some stats for the junkies on rookie years. Use them how you see fit: 

 

Jalen Hurts - 2020

Games: 15

Pass Yards: 1,061

Rush Yards: 354

Comp Pct: 52%

Pass TDs: 6

Ints: 4

Rush TDs: 3

Fumbles: 6

 

Justin Herbert - 2020

Games: 15

Pass Yards: 4,336

Rush Yards: 234

Comp Pct: 66.6%

Pass TDs: 31

Ints: 10

Rush TDs: 5

Fumbles: 4

 

Cam Newton - 2011

Games: 16

Pass Yards: 4,051

Rush Yards: 706

Comp Pct: 60%

Pass TDs: 21

Ints: 17

Rush TDs: 14

Fumbles: 2

 

Lamar Jackson - 2018

Games: 16

Pass Yards: 1,201

Rush Yards: 695

Comp Pct: 58.25

Pass TDs: 6

Ints: 3

Rush TDs: 5

Fumbles: 10

 

Josh Allen - 2018

Games: 12

Pass Yards: 2,074

Rush Yards: 631

Comp Pct: 52.8%

Pass TDs: 10

Ints: 12

Rush TDs: 8

Fumbles: 5

 

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