Colts writer hates on Brown

[Mouthfire]

Both sides have an arguement. We will only know after he gets a year under his belt. I am fully happy to give him that opportunity this year. If he doesn't get it done then we draft a rb next offseason or go for a true upgrade in FA like Matt Forte or Mccoy. Given the opportunity I would be happy having Brown as a change of pace/third down back but I am ok with him having the opportunity this year. Give him his carries and find out what he can do. No excuses.

Addai ran behind the same line basically over the past several years and has avg 4.1 ypc for his career. That said I don't think Addai was or is a top end feature back...so by the same numbers I would say Brown isn't either unless he proves it this year. He is still under contract this year and next but no doubt we will be looking for his replacement if he can't get it done this year. I don't see a top 15 running back in him as of right now....but he has the opportunity to change that. Hope he does.

Dgambill, see my previous post. Addai is perfectly suited for the zone-blocking scheme because he's a "shiftier" type of back. That's why he does all that "jump-cutting" behind the line that drives all the fans mad... it allows him to pick one of the two holes that is opening up. Addai will always outperform DB in a zone-blocking scheme for that reason.

[Superman]

Donald Brown isn't an every down back, obviously. Very few of those anymore. Donald Brown wasn't a good pick, either. Even if he turns into a top ten back in the NFL, we still could have done much better with that pick.

But BBS' hateful commentary is just more of the same. I guess he'll continue to find ways to bang on Bill Polian for the rest of eternity. For a "fan," he sure hates a lot about the Colts.

[dgambill]

This sentiment I agree with. As favorable as Donald Brown's stats look when has actually been semi-featured, there is no doubt that this is a pivotal year for him to show that he can indeed be a feature back ... and to show that he can stay healthy. I agree that if he cannot prove to be durable and effective this year, then he can no longer be viewed as the RB answer moving beyond 2012.

Plus, isn't this his contract year? Extra motivation for him to put up big time numbers!

This is not his contract year. He is signed through 2013. Although this is his make it or break it year. We will find another runner (draft or FA) next spring if he doesn't bust out. Once someone else is under contract he will share carries and find it hard to show why we should keep him. I agree 100% give him as many carries as he can healthily handle. Use him! See what he has and move forward knowing he has it in him or if he is just a change of pace back. The only way I say don't give him 20 carries a game this year is if somehow we land a great rb in the draft that falls back to us in the middle rounds or we get someone like Matt Forte in a trade (basically an obvious upgrade).

[atapcl]

Donald Brown also had a shoulder injury in college that prevented him from doing the bench press at the combine. That old injury may hamper his ability to block or deliver a blow with that shoulder when he is being tackled. If his injury is healed so he can develop more upper body strength then maybe he can be a featured back.

[rockywoj]

Adding yet more elite running backs into the analysis of similarly (NOT) featured games with 10 to 17 carries ....

2010/2011 combined : 10 to 17 carries per game performances:

Donald Brown .......... 14 games, 195 att., 901 yds., 4.62 ypc.avg., 6 TDs

Matt Forte ................ 18 games, 219 att., 901 yds., 4.11 ypc.avg., 2 TDS

Adrian Peterson ...... 13 games, 183 att., 794 yds., 4.34 ypc.avg., 10 TDs

Chris Johnson ......... 19 games, 239 att., 774 yds., 3.24 ypc.avg., 3 TD

Maurice Jones-Drew 6 games, 88 att., 377 yds., 4.28 ypc.avg., 0 TD

This is actually getting quite interesting, the more elite RBs I add to the analysis, the more it looks like Donald Brown might be the best RB in the league over the past two years when only being given 10 - 17 carries per game. Of course, I am being facetious in saying that, well, sort of. lol

[Flash7]

Adding yet another elite running back, Matt Forte, into the analysis of similarly (NOT) featured games with 10 to 17 carries ....

2010/2011 combined : 10 to 17 carries per game performances:

Donald Brown ....... 14 games, 195 att., 901 yds., 4.62 ypc.avg., 6 TDs

Matt Forte ............. 18 games, 219 att., 901 yds., 4.11 ypc.avg., 2 TDS

Adrian Peterson ... 13 games, 183 att., 794 yds., 4.34 ypc.avg., 10 TDs

Chris Johnson ...... 19 games, 239 att., 774 yds., 3.24 ypc.avg., 3 TD

This is actually getting quite interesting, the more elite RBs I add to the analysis, the more it looks like Donald Brown might be the best RB in the league over the past two years when only being given 10 - 17 carries per game. Of course, I am being facetious in saying that, well, sort of. lol

Rocky, good analysis, great information.

For the sake of discussion, I'd like to play devil's advocate.

We know that the Colts have used a RB by committee system, however the Titans with Chris Johnson have not, and neither the Vikings with Peterson, and neither the Bears with Forte. However, you are comparing their games where they only had 10-17 carries to make an even comparison with Brown. I would ask, why would a team with a feature back only ask their main RB to carry the ball 10-17 times?

My assertion is that what is essentially being done in your analysis is:

1. Comparing the respective RBs worste games to Brown's,

2. Or comparing games where the D has clearly focused on the shutting down the run game, so much so that the offense had to move away from the run, thus resulting in only 10-17 carries;

3. Or comparing games where the offensive game plan was to pass a lot more than to run, resulting in 10-17 carries per game for the respective backs.

What is missing in the oveall picture is the how many runs did the Titans, Vikings, or Bears have as a whole? How many runs did Addai have or Carter to cause an effect on the defense?

Overall, I think that you are on the right track and have done really good statistical analysis. I just am not completely sold on its entirety.

[icf]

This is Brown's year to shine.....or not.

If does well, that will be a great help to the team....but if not, the Colts may well have a top 10 (if not top 5) pick in next year's draft which could set them up in a good position to take an elite level back.

[dgambill]

Adding yet another elite running back, Matt Forte, into the analysis of similarly (NOT) featured games with 10 to 17 carries ....

2010/2011 combined : 10 to 17 carries per game performances:

Donald Brown ....... 14 games, 195 att., 901 yds., 4.62 ypc.avg., 6 TDs

Matt Forte ............. 18 games, 219 att., 901 yds., 4.11 ypc.avg., 2 TDS

Adrian Peterson ... 13 games, 183 att., 794 yds., 4.34 ypc.avg., 10 TDs

Chris Johnson ...... 19 games, 239 att., 774 yds., 3.24 ypc.avg., 3 TD

This is actually getting quite interesting, the more elite RBs I add to the analysis, the more it looks like Donald Brown might be the best RB in the league over the past two years when only being given 10 - 17 carries per game. Of course, I am being facetious in saying that, well, sort of. lol

Funny. You are not counting into affect how many of those runners are running against 8 in the box and what they do in the receiving game. Forte for example while having an injury still caught 52 passes for almost 500 yards...Johnson similarly 57 catches for 418 yards...and we all know Petterson ran against 8 and 9 man fronts a lot.

I absolutely agree with your premise that Brown needs more carries to see if he has what it takes but please...we would take any 3 of those runners in a heartbeat and so would you. They command much more attention opening up the field for everyone else.

[Smitto]

Brad wells acts like he knows everything but he doesn't, I've spoken to him a few times and he sure doesn't like brown.

[Coffeedrinker]

Brown did have average to good run blocking the last couple of years. The biggest problem for Brown is he is not good enough at anticipating where the hole will open, so he always seems a step slow, that is a primary skill a RB needs when running behind a zone blocking scheme where an inside run to the left can happen anywhere between the center of the LT to the center of the center. It's not Brown's fault, the Colts should not have drafted him.

Now with Pags and the possibility of the Colt going to more of a man blocking scheme, where the a hole is called and the blocking is designed to clear the defenders out of that hole, could really be a benefit to Brown because he is good at the 2nd level and he has excellent balance once he gets up to speed.

[SOMDColtsfan]

IMO, the Colts offense never used Donald Brown effectively. After the Tennessee game who started? Joseph Addai. I`m not hatin on Addai or infatuated with Brown and loyalty is great but how do keep a guy coming off his best career day sitting on the bench? Everytime he`d get rolling they`d park him on the sidelines.You never saw any screen passes to him out of the backfield or to any RB for that matter. Am really looking forward to a more balance attack next year!

[rockywoj]

Rocky, good analysis, great information.

For the sake of discussion, I'd like to play devil's advocate.

We know that the Colts have used a RB by committee system, however the Titans with Chris Johnson have not, and neither the Vikings with Peterson, and neither the Bears with Forte. However, you are comparing their games where they only had 10-17 carries to make an even comparison with Brown. I would ask, why would a team with a feature back only ask their main RB to carry the ball 10-17 times?

My assertion is that what is essentially being done in your analysis is:

1. Comparing the respective RBs worste games to Brown's, Coincidental that it may have been their worst games - I compared those other runningbacks's games in which they were given the same amount of running attempts, in the 10 - 17 range, to demonstrate that one needs "opportunities" to be fairly evaluated. Ergo, by similarly evaluating the great backs in games where they were given no more opportunity than Brown has been given, my measure of attempts shows that even that great backs are not so great when not given fair opportunity.

2. Or comparing games where the D has clearly focused on the shutting down the run game, so much so that the offense had to move away from the run, thus resulting in only 10-17 carries; It seems to me that teams generally completely shut down the Colts' running game too. Way often the RB would get the ball facing multiple tacklers behind the line of scrimmage. I understand what you are saying, though, that teams did not necessarily "focus" on a Colts' RB weapon. Last year, though, it's not like there was a formidable passing game to worry about either, as the Colts passing game was arguably the weakest part of their offense last year, which contrary to what you say, maybe in 2011 teams could focus on defensing the Colts running game full well knowing that Painter or whomever could not lead a successful passing game.

3. Or comparing games where the offensive game plan was to pass a lot more than to run, resulting in 10-17 carries per game for the respective backs. Admittedly, the Colts have generally had a very unbalanced attack. A more balanced scheme that better utilizes the running game will be welcome. This does not change the evaluation process, though, of fairly evaluating a running back when given actual running attempts. Brown has simply not generally been given fair opportunity to demonstrate whether or not he can be an effective feature back. The analysis seems to show that even established feature backs cannot perform all that well when not given many opportunities. What I believe my analysis has shown is that it is basically unfair for people to trash on Brown as not being capable, when he has never really been given adequate opportunity, but also, to show that when he has been given "partial" opportunity, he has performed at or better than elite backs given the same limited opportunity.

What is missing in the oveall picture is the how many runs did the Titans, Vikings, or Bears have as a whole? How many runs did Addai have or Carter to cause an effect on the defense?

Overall, I think that you are on the right track and have done really good statistical analysis. I just am not completely sold on its entirety.

[Mouthfire]

Brown did have average to good run blocking the last couple of years. The biggest problem for Brown is he is not good enough at anticipating where the hole will open, so he always seems a step slow, that is a primary skill a RB needs when running behind a zone blocking scheme where an inside run to the left can happen anywhere between the center of the LT to the center of the center. It's not Brown's fault, the Colts should not have drafted him.

Now with Pags and the possibility of the Colt going to more of a man blocking scheme, where the a hole is called and the blocking is designed to clear the defenders out of that hole, could really be a benefit to Brown because he is good at the 2nd level and he has excellent balance once he gets up to speed.

Ditto... What Coffee said...

[funktacious2]

This guy must have written articles in the past that people didn't like, but with this one he makes some good points. HOWEVER, he doesn't mention the o-line once which is still ultimately going to decide how good our running game is.

[DaColtDemon]

if this is the do or die year grab a rb in the 3rd i like brown but carter is not a plan if brown leaves town

but ..................

u build the monster ill just watch & laugh at all them " colts " fans who moved on to be denver fans

GO INDY!!

[Malakai432]

Rule of thumb: Never use the words "Writer" and "Brad Wells" in the same sentence.

Very good point.

[CCH]

It's not like we have a better option, I don't think we'll draft a RB early this year. I'm not sure how Donald is going to do but this is basically his last chance. To be fair though, I went to that Titans game and Donald created all those big runs. This guy made it seem like Brown had gaping holes to run through.

[JoKeR]

I think Brown has some potential but I still get frustrated when I read the names of other players that could have been Colts.

[GrizzColt]

Carter runs hard. He started fumbling because he was trying to get extra yardage. He shows signs of field vision as well. Brown never showed any of those things. The only thing he can do is hit an open hole really fast. Well, I hope we have open holes or he'll do more of the same.

[Jay Kirk]

Carter is the type of runner the Steeler 'used' to have. I think he will benefit from a full training camp= less fumbles....he could be a beast.

These are good points CRHUGHES made a good point,maybe what we may see could be something simalar to Bradshaw & Jacobs with the Giants.One can only hope because when those two were healthy at one time it was pretty devastating on opposing defenses

[lollygagger8]

I'd like to see more passes to him out of the backfield. Did they even do that more than 5 times last year?

[HarassedOffTheSite]

Rule of thumb: Never use the words "Writer" and "Brad Wells" in the same sentence.

**********THAT!!!!!**********

[IndyTrav]

Until he goes out and justifies his 1st rd selection. He's gonna get hated on. By me. And others.

[Superman]

Until he goes out and justifies his 1st rd selection. He's gonna get hated on. By me. And others.

I don't think he'll ever live up to his draft status. But if he's a serviceable and productive player, why do we have to hold him responsible for Bill Polian's poor decision? I think he should be judged on his performance, not his draft position.

[dgambill]

I don't think he'll ever live up to his draft status. But if he's a serviceable and productive player, why do we have to hold him responsible for Bill Polian's poor decision? I think he should be judged on his performance, not his draft position.

Brown can't control where he was picked. He can only control his performance. He needs to be preparing himself this offseason...weights, speed, quickness, and work during the season watching tape and just hitting the hole hard. If he doesn't cut it this year we will find a replacement. This is his time...he has to be ready and he won't have an excuse.

[IndyTrav]

I don't think he'll ever live up to his draft status. But if he's a serviceable and productive player, why do we have to hold him responsible for Bill Polian's poor decision? I think he should be judged on his performance, not his draft position.

His performance will justify his selection. Im not asking the guy to go 1300/10. But the guy has gone over 100yds twice, and over 60yds six times in 40 games...That is unacceptable at any selection. First round or 4th....

I don't blame him for his ridiculous selection. However I do blame him for failing to put himself into a position to have success, thru OTAs, Training Camp, Preseason etc. Once he was picked, it was on him, and he has yet to captialize on it.

[SubZero]

Ummm..I kinda agree with everything he said.

Yeah i feel the same, they need to give Darren Evans a chance.

[Superman]

His performance will justify his selection. Im not asking the guy to go 1300/10.

To be honest, I don't like the idea of picking any running back in the first round. If he's a standout talent, I get it, but where we were in 2009, this was a bad pick. Pass first team with an all-world quarterback, questions at offensive line and defensive line, aging receivers (Marvin had just been released), etc. This was the wrong pick. Even if he goes 1300/10, it wouldn't justify the draft choice, to me. He'd have to have several top notch seasons for me to think he was worthy of a first rounder, and even then I'll still believe this was the wrong pick.

That said...

But the guy has gone over 100yds twice, and over 60yds six times in 40 games...That is unacceptable at any selection. First round or 4th....

I don't blame him for his ridiculous selection. However I do blame him for failing to put himself into a position to have success, thru OTAs, Training Camp, Preseason etc. Once he was picked, it was on him, and he has yet to captialize on it.

I don't see what he's done wrong. He's gotten better every year, running behind a rag-tag offensive line with tons of injuries. He's a better pass blocker than he's given credit for. He's not suddenly going to turn into Marshall Faulk, but he's a better runner now than he was in 2010. He can be a weapon out of the backfield. I think he's a serviceable back, right now, and a good member of a platoon. It seems like you think he hasn't done anything to improve, like he's been MIA from team events, etc. To my knowledge, he's done everything he's been asked to do. He's just not an elite back worthy of a first round pick. I don't think he'll ever be. But he can be a decent player that plays an important role on our team, and if that's the case, I don't see why we have to keep bringing up the fact that he was picked in the first round. That's Polian's fault, not his.

[oldunclemark]

Its odd//because Brown was declared a 1st round bust after one year..even though no player (see Anthony Costanzo) should be tagged with the 'bust' label after one season...

Brown gained over 4 1/2 yards a carry and never fumbled and folks blame him that he..

didnt get the ball more.....wasnt allowed to start most games..

didnt play with a blocking back or a strong blocking line and rarely had had the ball thrown to him.

That's all HIS fault.

Some fans make up their mind and wont let facts change it.

Maybe he'll get his due when he gets his 1,000 yards this year...

[Ryan Pelley]

He's not 'hating' on him. He's just being completely honest, and he's right about Donald Brown.

[The Peytonator]

I don't know if this was brought up in the thread, but the writer straight up lied about the statistics. He says that if you take out the Titans game, Donald maintains a 3.6 yard per carry average.....False!!! I just did the math and if you take that Titans game out he had 118 carries for 484 yards. That's a 4.1 YPC average. The writer couldn't even manipulate the stats, he just lies about them.

Brown is a good back. With good blocking he will shine. Although I think the same could be said for just about any back in the league.

[JerryWonder]

This from some nerd who probably has never scored a TD of his own in his life...

[JerryWonder]

This from some nerd who probably has never scored a TD of his own in his life...

[Mouthfire]

I don't know if this was brought up in the thread, but the writer straight up lied about the statistics. He says that if you take out the Titans game, Donald maintains a 3.6 yard per carry average.....False!!! I just did the math and if you take that Titans game out he had 118 carries for 484 yards. That's a 4.1 YPC average. The writer couldn't even manipulate the stats, he just lies about them.

Brown is a good back. With good blocking he will shine. Although I think the same could be said for just about any back in the league.

*Ahem* We use the term "writer" very loosely around here with regards to Brad Wells. ;)

[BleedingBlue]

agree. do or die. i like both these guys and im glad to see donald get his chance but lets be realistic...