Colts writer hates on Brown

[oldunclemark]

Donald Brown Could Be The Colts Primary Running Back In 2012

by Brad Wells on Apr 3, 2012 10:00 AM EDT in Colts News

This is a little nugget of info that got overlooked during the league meetings last week. While being interviewed during the coaches breakfast prior to the league meetings, new Colts head coach Chuck Pagano was asked about runningback Donald Brown and where he might fit in with the Colts in 2012.

Pagano responded by suggesting Brown might be the primary ball carrier for Indy in 2012:

"Donald's a real bright guy and he's got some home-run capabilities in him," Pagano said. "He's strong, he's quick to hit the hole, he puts his foot in the ground, he's decisive and all those types of things." When asked if Brown could be a 30- to 40-snap kind of player, Pagano said, "Yeah I do, and I think he'd tell you the same thing. He's more than capable of doing that, absolutely."

I'm not sure how I feel about this.

I agree with Pagano that Brown does have a "home-run" threat when it comes to running the ball. It seems that, every year, Brown has one game where <a href="http://indiana.sbnation.com/indianapolis-colts/2011/12/18/2644928/video-donald-browns-80-yard-touchdown-indianapolis-colts-first-win" target="_blank">he rips off a big run, getting everyone excited about how awesome he supposedly is.

Then, he follows that game up with three or four "meh" performances.

Yes, I know he averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year. If there was ever a prime example of "stats are for losers," it's Donald Brown's rushing lines. Classic example of Donald Brown play was his performance in the month of December 2011. Against the Titans in Week 15, he ran for 161 yards on just 16 carries, including an 80-yard touchdown run to seal the win. However, in the two games prior to that Titans win, Brown averaged 2.9 and 3.1 yards-per-carry, respectively. In the two games after his 161 yard explosion against Tennessee, 3.2 and 3.0 yards-per-carry, respectively.

Thus, if you wanted to, you could say that over a five-game stretch, Donald Brown was averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry. Never mind that his one game against Tennessee, with a 10.1 yard-per-carry average, skewed the heck out of the statistics.

DOESN'T MATTER HE'S AWESOME! 4.9 A CARRY! MVP! MVP! MVP!

Take away that fluke performance against Tennessee, and Brown averages barely 3.0 yards-per-carry in December. Take it away entirely from his 2011 season, and he averages a putrid 3.6, which is in line with his previous season averages.

But, whatever. Doesn't matter, some say. Donald is clearly the second coming of Walter Payton! I literally had . tweeting me this sort of nonsense after that Titans game last year.

Brown is maddeningly inconsistent. He also struggles to pick-up blockers in pass protection, which kept him off the field in many instances because, reportedly, Peyton Manning didn't trust him. heck, Brown didn't even play the first four weeks of the 2011 season. Like, I mean, he never carried the ball. At all! We never got a reason as to why. He's been benched seemingly a dozen times over the course of his three year career, and the Colts even went so far as to bring back Dominic Rhodes in 2010 because Brown was stinking up the backfield.

However, with Joseph Addai recently cut (and, by the looks of things, likely done with football), Brown is pretty much all we've got left. Perhaps, with a new offensive line and a coaching staff that knows what it's doing, Brown will finally shed the draft bust label that is stuck to his forehead.

Please understand, I want nothing more than for Brown to become a consistent back and finally warrant his draft stock. Bill Polian passed on Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Beanie Wells, James Laurinaitis, and Ziggy Hood to get Brown. All five players are, right now, better than Brown, and have been consistently better since the 2009 NFL Draft.

2012 is Donald's absolute last chance. He'll be out of excuses, and excuse-makers, if he doesn't pull it together this year.

[Flash7]

Ummm..I kinda agree with everything he said.

[Smonroe]

Rule of thumb: Never use the words "Writer" and "Brad Wells" in the same sentence.

[chad72]

Yes, this is a do or die year for Donald Brown. I know Delone Carter might be closer to the Mendenhall body type but Donald Brown should do a close to 50-50 share of the workload with Delone Carter at least.

Donald Brown might be the kind of back who, when Ds are tired after banging with Carter, can take advantage of their tired legs later in the game. So, his share of the workload should be gradually increased as the game goes by, and he should be carrying more when it comes to the 4th qtr.

All of this comes with the basic assumption that the O-line has to open a few more holes than in the past. Otherwise, any RB production discussion is moot.

[oldunclemark]

Rule of thumb: Never use the words "Writer" and "Brad Wells" in the same sentence.

Good point.....monroe..

[oldunclemark]

Ummm..I kinda agree with everything he said.

Is it fair to blow up a guy's average per carry because he had soem long runs

We WANT long runs...

..and an average per carry is just that...an average

If LeBron scored 45 in one game and then 15 in the next three..he still average 22.5 a game

..and there was no mention of Indy's blocking line..and no proof that Manning didnt trust him.

Orlovsky trusted him..and Danny O had a lot less job security than Peyton

[Coltman51]

Not surprised by the blast against Brown, his performance and numbers have not been consistant and good so far with the Colts. But then the whole Run Offense for the Colts has been mediocre for along time. Everything was done and planned around Peytons arm and abilities which surely bit us in the posterior ( my new word for the moderators I love) this past season when Peyton wasn't behind center. I am glad Patano is confident in him, though I don't think at this point I would expect any other reply from him , not until he gets his chance with an improved line and some more emphasis on the run game. I always thought he had great potential as did Hart, now he has to live up to it and perform.

[chad72]

Orlovsky trusted him..and Danny O had a lot less job security than Peyton

Orlovsky was sleeping in DB's apartment, remember? UConn. teammates . (j/k)

[oldunclemark]

Orlovsky was sleeping in DB's apartment, remember? UConn. teammates . (j/k)

Good point...

If a guy's letting you stay rent free...your opinion of him tends to trend upward...

[FightLikeSin]

I like Brown but I hope Carter gets the majority of the carries. I think he's a good power back that will be an improvement for this new offense.

[Flash7]

Is it fair to blow up a guy's average per carry because he had soem long runs

We WANT long runs...

..and an average per carry is just that...an average

If LeBron scored 45 in one game and then 15 in the next three..he still average 22.5 a game

..and there was no mention of Indy's blocking line..and no proof that Manning didnt trust him.

Orlovsky trusted him..and Danny O had a lot less job security than Peyton

Mark, I see your point agree to an extent. Here's where our points of view may differ. Take a guy like Barry Sanders who had many long runs and also the most amount of negative runs in NFL history. You would put up with the negative runs because you knew that he could break for an 80-yarder any minute.

Donal Brown on the other hand has only shown slight glimpses of break away ability. It's much too few and far in between to give him the benefit of the doubt. If this year he shows that he does have that break away capability on a regular basis, then I think you can start to take his average per carry into consideration. As for right now, his 161 yard game is an outlier, a fluke, an anomally, which adjusted his yards per carry average. That's why I agree with the writer of the column. He hasn't shown enough consistancy to think that he can really produce a 4.9 per carry per game. Brown is very much hit or miss.

[oldunclemark]

Mark, I see your point agree to an extent. Here's where our points of view may differ. Take a guy like Barry Sanders who had many long runs and also the most amount of negative runs in NFL history. You would put up with the negative runs because you knew that he could break for an 80-yarder any minute.

Donal Brown on the other hand has only shown slight glimpses of break away ability. It's much too few and far in between to give him the benefit of the doubt. If this year he shows that he does have that break away capability on a regular basis, then I think you can start to take his average per carry into consideration. As for right now, his 161 yard game is an outlier, a fluke, an anomally, which adjusted his yards per carry average. That's why I agree with the writer of the column. He hasn't shown enough consistancy to think that he can really produce a 4.9 per carry per game. Brown is very much hit or miss.

Has he had averege to good run blocking?

[Thewholefnshow28]

How is this hating on him? Why is it that anytime someone points that one of our players has holes in his game they are lableled as hating?

Donald Brown has just been so inconsistent since we drafted him. Since he came here he would show flashes of greatness and then the next couple games just basically throw up all over himself out there and be useless.

He did do better last season when given the chance, but to put all of our eggs in one basket would be laughable. I was hoping we would bring in a free agent or hopefully draft someone because I just do not trust DB to be consistent.

I would love for him to blow up this season and put all the doubts to rest, but I sure as heck will not hold my breath. I think it is more likely he will be gone after next season then him blowing up and being a top tier RB.

[rockywoj]

Personally, I think it is pretty much unfair to try and paint how good a guy is when a guy is not given adequate opportunities. A LOT of great runners would get 15 - 25 carries per game, have insignificant yardage on 15 carries, then break the game open. I think a more telling evaluation of an RB is by looking how they perform when they get 15 or more touches.

Brown only had two games in 2012 where he had 15 or more touches. In those two games, he had 32 touches for 231 yards, a 7.22 per carry avg.

Looking at how he did when he had ten or more carries, there were 7 such games in 2012 for 95 att., 473 yds, 4.98 ypc avg. 4 TDs. This type of workload projected over 16 games would project to a very respectable 217 att. 1,081 yds, and 9 TDs.

In 2010 he also had 7 games with 10 or more carries .... 100 att. 428 yds 4.28 ypc avg. 2 TDs which would have projected to a 16 game season of 228 att. 978 yds 5 TDs.

These 10 or more touch games combined for 2010 & 2011 = 195 Att 901 yds 4.62 ypc avg. 6 TDs. That's a per game avg. 13.93 att. for 64.36 yds. when he gets 10 or more touches.

His two year average in games where he gets 10 or more touches, projected to a 16 game season would be =

222 Att. 1,029 yds 4.62 ypc avg. 7 TDs

Looks to me like Donald Brown can be VERY effective, as long as he can stay healthy and be given a consistent workload as a feature back.

I think the bottom line is, a running back will not post quality feature back numbers without being given feature back opportunities.

When Brown was drafted, he looked fantastic in his first preseason and he showed potential in games ... then he was set back by injury which pretty much nagged him the rest of his rookie year. In 2010 he was constantly hampered by nagging minor injuries plus scheme-wise the team just wasn't geared to running, plus the entire offense (team) was beset by a ridiculous amount of injuries. When he did get featured like a feature back late in the 2010 season against Tennessee, in one half of work he put up 129 yds on only 14 carries. For whatever reason I do not know, he was not used in the 2nd half of that game and barely used for the rest of the season. Then in 2011, the story was very similar. Lots of nagging injuries and he was rarely featured.

I think Brown has clearly shown by the numbers that when he is reasonably featured, he has delivered very well. People I think unfairly rag on him about his poor blocking. He's an RB, not a blocker. Use him as a runner, feature him, and I think Donald Brown will surprise a whole LOT of people in 2012.

[bahhummbug]

Im all for giving Brown a chance keep it real our O-Line was horrible last year,can we all not agree on that.Run game starts with your O-Line horrible O-Line normally means horrible run game.Give Don a break he isnt a blocking back but he will get big runs this year.

[oldunclemark]

How is this hating on him? Why is it that anytime someone points that one of our players has holes in his game they are lableled as hating?

Donald Brown has just been so inconsistent since we drafted him. Since he came here he would show flashes of greatness and then the next couple games just basically throw up all over himself out there and be useless.

He did do better last season when given the chance, but to put all of our eggs in one basket would be laughable. I was hoping we would bring in a free agent or hopefully draft someone because I just do not trust DB to be consistent.

I would love for him to blow up this season and put all the doubts to rest, but I sure as heck will not hold my breath. I think it is more likely he will be gone after next season then him blowing up and being a top tier RB.

Because you cant trash YOUR guys when they've done the job that's been asked...

he averaged 4.8 per carry and didnt fumble..but still he gets ridiculed.

He's been in a one back set behind a make-shift line where he's asked to block three times as often as he carries.

How come folks cant see that?

[Flash7]

No he hasn't had average or good run blocking. I agree with you on that point, however, it doesn't change my argument about his average per carry.

He was a first round pick. I have much higher expectations from a first round guy than to be a back up RB for his first 3 years. His opportunity costs are too high, to think that we passed up on others to draft him and he hasn't really produced as we had hoped.

I have rooted for DB since he was drafted and still do, but I am realistic in seeing that he has been in and out of the line up since he's been with the Colts. He has had some injuries, nagging issues that haven't allowed him to play to his full potential. Now if we increase his workload, I feel it will increase his chance for more injuries.

[rockywoj]

Because you cant trash YOUR guys when they've done the job that's been asked...

he averaged 4.8 per carry and didnt fumble..but still he gets ridiculed.

He's been in a one back set behind a make-shift line where he's asked to block three times as often as he carries.

How come folks cant see that?

I see it very well ... and in my post above, I provide the numbers to prove that he performs quite well when given adequate touches.

[oldunclemark]

I see it very well ... an in my post above, I provide the numbers to prove that he performs quite well when given adequate touches.

you da man, rocky!!

[rockywoj]

... however, it doesn't change my argument about his average per carry. ...

Look at the numbers and arguments I posted and then tell me if you can rationally refute the statistical FACTS. When given adequate opportunities, Donald Brown has been very effective, despite an unfriendly running scheme and bad blocking.

The only "real" issue on Donald Brown has been durability. Like the entire Colts team, he has been ridiculed by injury (though in his case generally minor injuries) for the past 3 years.

[Mameluc]

Rule of thumb: Never use the words "Writer" and "Brad Wells" in the same sentence.

or journalist... i mean its amazing how many bias he can put on his articles when he is in the bussiness of being objective. and lol, isnt a journalist supposed to do some research and get stories? all i see is copy pastes from another website + his opinion.

[Flash7]

Look at the numbers and arguments I posted and then tell me if you can rationally refute the statistical FACTS. When given adequate opportunities, Donald Brown has been very effective, despite an unfriendly running scheme and bad blocking.

The only "real" issue on Donald Brown has been durability. Like the entire Colts team, he has been ridiculed by injury (though in his case generally minor injuries) for the past 3 years.

Rocky, I like the work you've done, researching his games/stats. Here is what I see:

2009 Yards per carry = 3.6

2010 Yards per carry = 3.9

2011 Yards per carry = 4.8

I see an increase in his yards per carry over the course of three seasons. I also see one outlier so far, the 4.8 yards per carry. It could very well be that he's finally given a chance to prove himself and he has done so. It could also very well be an outlier. That's why I have stated that I agree with the writer of the column. It clearly shows inconsistency, does it not? This year will be Donald's chance to prove if he really is a 3.9 yards per carry guy, or a 4.8 yards per carry guy. I hope that it's 4.8. I will root for him and the Colts, but I will not bet on him maintaining this average.

As for all of the other stats that you've provided. only some are factual figures, while the rest are projections. I merely point this out because you and I know that there are way too many variables in football to project accurately.

[rockywoj]

Note, my analysis of Dona'd Brown's performance when getting 10 or more carries in a game is purely objective, cold statistical analysis. The numbers show him as being very effective when getting quasi-feature touches. I am optimistic based on my objective statistical analysis.

My wish for the Colts in 2012 is good health, finally, so we can see how good this team can really be.

[MSColtsFan]

I think two things can be equally true here. One, Brown hasn't been given the number of touches necessary for anyone to really fairly assess what he could do if given 15-25 touches a game. More to the point, the Colts were like the majority of teams in the NFL, had multiple backs to share the load, and were obviously built around pass first, PM, etc. On the other hand, Brown was an every down back who carried a huge load with UConn, led the nation in rushing, and might be able to become that every down back in the NFL. That being said, I don't think anyone who has watched him thinks he can become a truly dynamic RB in the NFL - he isn't going to become a game breaker, Peterson/MJD/Johnson kind of featured back.

[rockywoj]

Rocky, I like the work you've done, researching his games/stats. Here is what I see:

2009 Yards per carry = 3.6

2010 Yards per carry = 3.9

2011 Yards per carry = 4.8

I see an increase in his yards per carry over the course of three seasons. I also see one outlier so far, the 4.8 yards per carry. It could very well be that he's finally given a chance to prove himself and he has done so. It could also very well be an outlier. That's why I have stated that I agree with the writer of the column. It clearly shows inconsistency, does it not? This year will be Donald's chance to prove if he really is a 3.9 yards per carry guy, or a 4.8 yards per carry guy. I hope that it's 4.8. I will root for him and the Colts, but I will not bet on him maintaining this average.

As for all of the other stats that you've provided. only some are factual figures, while the rest are projections. I merely point this out because you and I know that there are way too many variables in football to project accurately.

My analysis was performed on the ACTUAL stats in games where he had 10 or more attempts. If you think it is fair to try and pain a guy's performance when only getting a touch here or a touch here, well, then I guess we just philosophically disagree. I say, you cannot fairly evaluate a guy as a feature back on games when he was not given featured opportunities. MY anlaysis shows that when he is given 10 or more carries, which has happened 14 times during the past 2 years, he has posted 901 yards on 195 carries for a 4.62 ypc average and 6 rushing TDs. Those are not projections, those are cold, hard, statistical facts (assuming my source is correct ... http://espn.go.com/n...89/donald-brown ).

Statistical reality refutes what you say about Donald Brown, when you look at the games in which he was actually given fair opportunity to perform, which I define as being games in which he gets 10 or more carries.

Also note, you seem to be judging him as being inconsistent, when much of that inconsistency came with him being injury hampered, which affected the fact that he couldn't be featured and only saw spot duty. You seem to be ignoring the context in which much of his "inconsistent" performance came from.

[oldunclemark]

I think two things can be equally true here. One, Brown hasn't been given the number of touches necessary for anyone to really fairly assess what he could do if given 15-25 touches a game. More to the point, the Colts were like the majority of teams in the NFL, had multiple backs to share the load, and were obviously built around pass first, PM, etc. On the other hand, Brown was an every down back who carried a huge load with UConn, led the nation in rushing, and might be able to become that every down back in the NFL. That being said, I don't think anyone who has watched him thinks he can become a truly dynamic RB in the NFL - he isn't going to become a game breaker, Peterson/MJD/Johnson kind of featured back.

I think, if the line pans out and we get the lead half the time, Donald Brown can gain 1,500 yards in 16 games..

.....To say he's not fast just doesn't fit with what you see when the blockers get him past the line...

..amd he is much stronger than he was his rookie year.......

We're going to see.....because we're not going to throw the ball 35-40 times a game right away

[MSColtsFan]

I think, if the line pans out and we get the lead half the time, Donald Brown can gain 1,500 yards in 16 games..

.....To say he's not fast just doesn't fit with what you see when the blockers get him past the line...

..amd he is much stronger than he was his rookie year.......

We're going to see.....because we're not going to throw the ball 35-40 times a game right away

Again, I see two things being equally true here... First, I like Brown, and agree with you that he could produce in this new offensive approach (which we're guessing at right now, based on comments made by ownership, GM, and coach). I also think the Colts aren't going to be in a position to actually try this out, because 2-14 doesn't happen accidentally, huge roster changes, huge scheme changes. To run you have to have leads or be in ball games. And even then the NFL is a pass crazy league now. The shame of it to me is, Brown was a poor fit for the Colts when drafted, and now when it appears the team could use a "featured back" like Brown was when drafted, they may lack the necessary components to make that approach realistic.

There were only 15 RBs in the NFL who gained 1000 yards last year. And six of those had under 1100 - so just barely got to the 1000. It's a pass first league, the days of 25-30 carries a game RBs are long gone, and even if Brown could do that, we won't see it. And in a 16 game schedule, 1000 yards is 63 yards a game. Only one RB had over 1500 last year. It isn't going to happen with Brown. And again, that isn't saying he can't, to me it's more about that isn't how the NFL works any more.

[BrentMc11]

I like Brown but I hope Carter gets the majority of the carries. I think he's a good power back that will be an improvement for this new offense.

Carter is the type of runner the Steeler 'used' to have. I think he will benefit from a full training camp= less fumbles....he could be a beast.

[rockywoj]

Just for fun, let's evaluate how well the great, game breaking Chris Johnson does when he has 10 to 17 touches per game, which is the very same sample size of opportunity I have evaluated Donald Brown on ....

Chris Johnson 2011 ... 13 games, 157 att., 448 yds., 2.85 ypc.avg., 1 TD

Donald Brown 2011 ... 7 games, 95 att., 473 yds., 4.98 ypc.avg., 4 TDs

Chris Johnson 2010 ... 6 games, 82 att., 326 yds., 3.98 ypc.avg., 2 TDs

Donald Brown 2010 ... 7 games, 100 att., 428 yds., 4.28 ypc.avg., 2 TDs

2010/2011 combined : 10 to 17 carries per game performances:

Chris Johnson ... 19 games, 239 att., 774 yds., 3.24 ypc.avg., 3 TDs

Donald Brown ... 14 games, 195 att., 901 yds., 4.62 ypc.avg., 6 TDs

Hmmm, interesting ... when we compare Donald Brown to Chris Johnson in games where they are both given "only" 10 to 17 carries per game, Donald Brown CLEARLY out performs All_Pro Chris Johnson.

Now, lets compare the two running backs when they are truly featured, using the criteria of more than 17 carries per game .... Oh wait, we can't, because Donald Brown has never been given that opportunity. Chris Johnson on the other hand, has been featured in that way 15 times over the past two years.

What I think I have proven is, you cannot fairly judge a running back on how they may perform as a featured back when there is no empirical evidence from which to draw. In the absence of the more than 17 carry games, I next used the 10 to 17 carry games to compare and in those games, Donald Brown shows very well, even when compared to an elite running back like Chris Johnson.

I am very optimistic that Donald Brown, if he can remain healthy, will do very well as the Colts' featured running back if they commit to him and consistently give him 15 or more carries per game on average.

[oldunclemark]

Again, I see two things being equally true here... First, I like Brown, and agree with you that he could produce in this new offensive approach (which we're guessing at right now, based on comments made by ownership, GM, and coach). I also think the Colts aren't going to be in a position to actually try this out, because 2-14 doesn't happen accidentally, huge roster changes, huge scheme changes. To run you have to have leads or be in ball games. And even then the NFL is a pass crazy league now. The shame of it to me is, Brown was a poor fit for the Colts when drafted, and now when it appears the team could use a "featured back" like Brown was when drafted, they may lack the necessary components to make that approach realistic.

There were only 15 RBs in the NFL who gained 1000 yards last year. And six of those had under 1100 - so just barely got to the 1000. It's a pass first league, the days of 25-30 carries a game RBs are long gone, and even if Brown could do that, we won't see it. And in a 16 game schedule, 1000 yards is 63 yards a game. Only one RB had over 1500 last year. It isn't going to happen with Brown. And again, that isn't saying he can't, to me it's more about that isn't how the NFL works any more.

The trend of the league is going away from running the ball...no doubt...you are right.

But we have an odd situation with an elite rookie passer...

..which means we'll play from the lead much more than we did last year..

....That will get us back to running the football..( to protect the rookie) and I dont think Brown is an average player.

We simply havent set him up to gain significant yards.

We didnt start him in some games...We didnt put a fullback in front of him till late last year..

.and we're always chasing the lead

1,500 yards is about 95 yards a game.....right?..this guy gained what....2,000 in college in what..13 games

It may not happen in 2012...but I think Brown will gain 1,500 yards in a season before his Colts days are through...

You'll see.

[Jaric]

Look at the numbers and arguments I posted and then tell me if you can rationally refute the statistical FACTS. When given adequate opportunities, Donald Brown has been very effective, despite an unfriendly running scheme and bad blocking.

The only "real" issue on Donald Brown has been durability. Like the entire Colts team, he has been ridiculed by injury (though in his case generally minor injuries) for the past 3 years.

Is that like adding insult to injury?

[Jaric]

On a serious note though, last year he did ok enough for me to postpone the bust tag another year.

But if not now, when?

[CR91]

no excuses for brown this year. either he gets it done or hes out of here

[Mouthfire]

Rule of thumb: Never use the words "Writer" and "Brad Wells" in the same sentence.

There is great wisdom here....

[rockywoj]

Adding Adrian Peterson to the comparative analysis, again, Donald Brown still performs favorably for the amount he has been featured, as compared to the league's two "elite" RBs, when they are similarly featured (or should I say, similarly NOT featured) ...

2010/2011 combined : 10 to 17 carries per game performances:

Donald Brown ....... 14 games, 195 att., 901 yds., 4.62 ypc.avg., 6 TDs

Adrian Peterson ... 13 games, 183 att., 794 yds., 4.34 ypc.avg., 10 TDs

Chris Johnson ...... 19 games, 239 att., 774 yds., 3.24 ypc.avg., 3 TDs

[chad72]

Adding Adrian Peterson to the comparative analysis, again, Donald Brown still performs favorably for the amount he has been featured, as compared to the league's two "elite" RBs, when they are similarly featured ...

2010/2011 combined : 10 to 17 carries per game performances:

Donald Brown ....... 14 games, 195 att., 901 yds., 4.62 ypc.avg., 6 TDs

Adrian Peterson ... 13 games, 183 att., 794 yds., 4.34 ypc.avg., 10 TDs

Chris Johnson ...... 19 games, 239 att., 774 yds., 3.24 ypc.avg., 3 TDs

Brown thrived in U.Conn. by getting better as the game went on. In other words, he might need to get more consecutive series' to be effective to find his rhythm. But in this day of RBC, can that be accomplished? That will be the big question. We know it could never be accomplished with Peyton and the style of offense we ran with him.

Like I said, wear out Ds with Delone Carter and increase Brown's carries as the game goes on and play him more in the 4th qtr., I think his production will go up in that scenario.

[dgambill]

Both sides have an arguement. We will only know after he gets a year under his belt. I am fully happy to give him that opportunity this year. If he doesn't get it done then we draft a rb next offseason or go for a true upgrade in FA like Matt Forte or Mccoy. Given the opportunity I would be happy having Brown as a change of pace/third down back but I am ok with him having the opportunity this year. Give him his carries and find out what he can do. No excuses.

Addai ran behind the same line basically over the past several years and has avg 4.1 ypc for his career. That said I don't think Addai was or is a top end feature back...so by the same numbers I would say Brown isn't either unless he proves it this year. He is still under contract this year and next but no doubt we will be looking for his replacement if he can't get it done this year. I don't see a top 15 running back in him as of right now....but he has the opportunity to change that. Hope he does.

[rockywoj]

I am not a fan of running backs by committee.

Clearly, to become an elite RB, you have to be given feature back opportunities. When you have an elite RB, teams have to specifically scheme to stop your feature runner. That in turn opens the passing game.

I like Delone Carter and think he holds a lot of potential. I think that the Colts' scheme, though, needs to be centered on a reasonably balanced attack with a "featured" runner. It is perfectly find for that featured runner to be relieved now and again, though, by a competent, hopefully equally effective backup.

I see the Colts of 2012 trying to run a much more balanced attack than in years past, similar the balanced attack I saw Andrew Luck lead in college this year. I see Donald Brown as being the featured RB and I see Delone Carter as being an effective relief hitter. Under this scenario, if the OL is actually any good and if the D can keep the Colts in the game so they are not always playing catch up, I see Donald Brown as having a sort of break out year.

All of this vision of mine, though, is of course predicated upon the Colts and Brown being healthy. I do not view RB as a Colts need, at this point in time.

[Mouthfire]

There are a few things that need to be taken into account with Donald Brown.

1) Our offensive line was undersized and absolutely putrid at run blocking. Adrian Peterson would have problems running behind that line that we had.

2) Our entire offensive was geared towards passing, and not running.

3) And lastly, Donald Brown has always been a "one-cut" running back. Meaning, he knows where the hole is going to be, and he hits it as hard and fast as he can. This is what he did at UConn where he blew up teams all by himself. So he ends up at Indy and is asked to run behind a zone-blocking scheme, where he is asked to hold back and wait for one of two possible holes to open up. This isn't the type of back that he is, and it was horrible mismanagement on the part of Polian to draft him to do it.

Seeing as we're moving away from the zone-blocking scheme, I'm expecting to see a huge improvement in DB's production....

[rockywoj]

.... Give him (Donald Brown) his carries and find out what he can do. No excuses. ...

This sentiment I agree with. As favorable as Donald Brown's stats look when has actually been semi-featured, there is no doubt that this is a pivotal year for him to show that he can indeed be a feature back ... and to show that he can stay healthy. I agree that if he cannot prove to be durable and effective this year, then he can no longer be viewed as the RB answer moving beyond 2012.

Plus, isn't this his contract year? Extra motivation for him to put up big time numbers!