Colts most likely 5th seed in playoffs

[Lucky Colts Fan]

This was an interesting video:

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/pff-teams-that-are-most-likely-to-make-playoffs-in-2020

 

After running 10,000 simulations, PFF determined the seven teams most likely to make the playoffs from each conference.

 

AFC:

Chiefs - 92% (highest of any team in the NFL)

Ravens - 85% (2nd highest and only other team above 80%)

Titans - 67%

Pats - 64%

Colts - 48%

Browns - 45%

Texans/Bills - 41%

 

(Three teams from the AFC South )

 

NFC:

Saints - 75%

49ers - 73%

Seahawks - 62%

Cowboys - 57%

Bucs - 55%

Packers/Vikings - 52%

 

Seems to be more parity in the NFC.

 

I didn't like the drop from the Pats to the Colts.  Did this factor in all the opt-outs on the Pats?  Are the Colts really basically a coin-flip whether they make it into the playoffs or not?  

 

This season may be like 2018 where it comes down to the last game of the season and we have to beat the Jags and then our fate rests on the Titans/Texans game just to get in as a wild card...

 

[Dogg63]

Seems a bit silly to do 10,000 simulations prior to roster cut-down day. I don't think their 'results' mean much if they don't even know yet who'll be on the field. It looks more based on last season's results than anything.

[2006Coltsbestever]

They think the Titans will win the division, I have us winning the division which would make us 4 at worse.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

1 minute ago, Dogg63 said:

Seems a bit silly to do 10,000 simulations prior to roster cut-down day. I don't think their 'results' mean much if they don't even know yet who'll be on the field. It looks more based on last season's results than anything.

 

Cut-downs really only affect the back-end of the roster.  The starters are pretty much known at this point.

 

I assume the simulations are based on the starters for every team staying healthy all season, so depth isn't as much of a factor as it will actually be irl.  

[PrincetonTiger]

6 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

Seems a bit silly to do 10,000 simulations prior to roster cut-down day. I don't think their 'results' mean much if they don't even know yet who'll be on the field. It looks more based on last season's results than anything.

[Dogg63]

3 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Cut-downs really only affect the back-end of the roster.  The starters are pretty much known at this point.

 

I assume the simulations are based on the starters for every team staying healthy all season, so depth isn't as much of a factor as it will actually be irl.  

To an extent, yes, but this year there's been almost zero visibility into how the rookies are doing. That's not an insignificant part of evaluating how a team will perform. Another reason I feel their simulations are based mostly on last season's performance. 

Admittedly, it's all they have to go by and they need to churn out an article. But in the end, I don't think it's much more informative than looking at last season's end-of-year standings.

[EastStreet]

Can't wait to win the AFCS and sweep the NFCN, while also beating Baltimore in Indy to take the number 1 going into the playoffs.

 

Only half kidding.

[AwesomeAustin]

I think the Colts are a coin flip to make the playoffs. Will we get 2018 or 2019 Phillip Rivers?  QBs play seems to drop off overnight.  I think he still has more in the tank bc the Chargers have always been inconsistent as a team during his career.
 

This will be a fun year full of great football. The NBA has shown without fans the home team loses a bit of their advantage.  We should see a lot more closer games where great players will have to make plays to win. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I think the Colts are a coin flip to make the playoffs. Will we get 2018 or 2019 Phillip Rivers?  QBs play seems to drop off overnight.  I think he still has more in the tank bc the Chargers have always been inconsistent as a team during his career.
 

This will be a fun year full of great football. The NBA has shown without fans the home team loses a bit of their advantage.  We should see a lot more closer games where great players will have to make plays to win. 

IMO, the Florida NBA bubble is different than playing on the road. 

[AwesomeAustin]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

IMO, the Florida NBA bubble is different than playing on the road. 

Most definitely.  NBA is at a neutral site. I still think the home team will lose a bit of their advantage without the crowds.  Traveling will always be a factor.  I guess we will learn a lot a few weeks in

[landrus13]

I can't take this seriously with the Pats above us. They lost a lot of defensive starters to opt out and free agency. They still don't have WRs. They released Sanu. I just can't see them being better than Indy. And Cam Newton likely won't stay healthy all season. Just hard to believe this.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, landrus13 said:

I can't take this seriously with the Pats above us. They lost a lot of defensive starters to opt out and free agency. They still don't have WRs. They released Sanu. I just can't see them being better than Indy. And Cam Newton likely won't stay healthy all season. Just hard to believe this.

 

It's going to be interesting to see the Pats O this year with Cam. IMO, BB is gambling on Harry a bunch. BUT, if Harry works out, they'll be fine. With a Cam style O, Edelman, Harry, and White catching out of the backfield, they'll be fine. Devin Asiasi is an interesting prospect at TE too, but he's a rook and will need some time. 

 

I could see it going really bad, but if Cam is back to the old Cam, they could be good.

[CoachKjr]

I find it ridiculous based on the moves the Colts made and the way the schedule is aligned in the stars, they can realistically go 13-3 possibly 16-0 with that schedule, QB play, RB play, D, and luck.

[CR91]

I don't see how the pats get more then 8 wins

[Bolts2Colts]

Surprised not to see Steelers here. Must be based on last years PFF stats. The whole team suffers when QB play declines.  

[bestQBever]

what I want to see is how accurate these simulations have been over a good sample size of time (5-10 years).

[AZColt11]

No problem.  Let outsiders be surprised.

[2006Coltsbestever]

19 hours ago, Bolts2Colts said:

Surprised not to see Steelers here. Must be based on last years PFF stats. The whole team suffers when QB play declines.  

I would choose Steelers over Browns with chances of making the playoffs.

[jskinnz]

21 hours ago, CoachKjr said:

I find it ridiculous based on the moves the Colts made and the way the schedule is aligned in the stars, they can realistically go 13-3 possibly 16-0 with that schedule, QB play, RB play, D, and luck.

Awful lot of ifs for Indy to suggest 13-3 let alone 16-0. 
 

1. Much riding on an old QB who was not good a year ago. 
 

2, much depending on rookies who we have seen not one thing from as of yet. 
 

3. The NFL is the one league where expected bad teams are good and good teams turn out poorly. Judging anything by this schedule is s fool’s gold. 
 

Might take off those colts colored glasses. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

Awful lot of ifs for Indy to suggest 13-3 let alone 16-0. 
 

1. Much riding on an old QB who was not good a year ago. 
 

2, much depending on rookies who we have seen not one thing from as of yet. 
 

3. The NFL is the one league where expected bad teams are good and good teams turn out poorly. Judging anything by this schedule is s fool’s gold. 
 

Might take off those colts colored glasses. 

I have us going 10-6 and I am one of the most optimistic people in here. Possibly 11-5? Still a good record and a playoff team. Predicting anything better than 11-5 is pushing it IMO.

[Stephen]

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I have us going 10-6 and I am one of the most optimistic people in here. Possibly 11-5? Still a good record and a playoff team. Predicting anything better than 11-5 is pushing it IMO.

12-4

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Stephen said:

12-4

That would be nice, that might get us a 1 seed even?

[CoachKjr]

5 hours ago, jskinnz said:

Awful lot of ifs for Indy to suggest 13-3 let alone 16-0. 
 

1. Much riding on an old QB who was not good a year ago. 
 

2, much depending on rookies who we have seen not one thing from as of yet. 
 

3. The NFL is the one league where expected bad teams are good and good teams turn out poorly. Judging anything by this schedule is s fool’s gold. 
 

Might take off those colts colored glasses. 

Rivers colored glasses

[Malakai432]

I think either 9-11 wins, which obviously could make a huge difference in playoff positioning lol.  I think they'll be really battling it out with the Titans for the top spot.  Probably be pretty close, 1 game could make a huge difference in that playoff positioning.  

 

Obviously contingent on a lot of factors, health, how Rivers plays, how the rookies play and the improvement we see from the young fellas from last year.  SOoooooo many darn variables. 

 

That being said I'm really looking forward to them and if all goes well could see them being a strong contender in the AFC.  

[John Hammonds]

7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I have us going 10-6 and I am one of the most optimistic people in here. Possibly 11-5? Still a good record and a playoff team. Predicting anything better than 11-5 is pushing it IMO.

I agree.  10-6 sounded about right.  You can win a division with 10-6.  But you're more likely to finish 2nd, and make it into the playoffs as a wild card.  Thus -- 5th seed.  *shrug* That's about what I figured.  Would be nice to go 11-5 and win the division.  But we'll see.

[AZColt11]

To me, it's always been about getting hot at the end of the year.  I would rather be 9-7 and squeak in the playoffs by winning our last 3 games, or 4 out of 5, than winning 11 games and losing 2 of your final 3.  I think this league is more about momentum come playoff time than your record.  Play well at the end of the season and qualify and you have a good shot.

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

To me, it's always been about getting hot at the end of the year.  I would rather be 9-7 and squeak in the playoffs by winning our last 3 games, or 4 out of 5, than winning 11 games and losing 2 of your final 3.  I think this league is more about momentum come playoff time than your record.  Play well at the end of the season and qualify and you have a good shot.

Good point. This year 9-7 will probably get us in too lol. 7 teams get in instead of 6. If Rivers plays all 16 games, the worse we will be is 9-7 IMO, our ceiling is 11-5, JMO. 

[Smonroe]

I wonder if the simulation takes injuries into account.  The algorithm would have to include a random number generator and account for the number of times a player has been injured previously.  
 

Then they’d weight a players value. Rivers gets injured two or more games reduces win totals by X, AC may be next, Kenny Moore, etc.

 

Sorry, it’s the geek Computer Engineer in me working out the program....

 

But, bottom line, injures make or break the season.

[crazycolt1]

On 9/5/2020 at 10:46 AM, AwesomeAustin said:

I think the Colts are a coin flip to make the playoffs. Will we get 2018 or 2019 Phillip Rivers?  QBs play seems to drop off overnight.  I think he still has more in the tank bc the Chargers have always been inconsistent as a team during his career.
 

This will be a fun year full of great football. The NBA has shown without fans the home team loses a bit of their advantage.  We should see a lot more closer games where great players will have to make plays to win. 

Rivers really don't have to have 2018 season to win a bunch of games for Indy. 

As long as he keeps the interceptions to a minimum and gets the ball to the skill players, IMO the talent is there.  

I think we have a more balanced deeper team that we have had in a long time. 

As far as seeding, it always comes down to taking care of business in your own division. 

[Myles]

Did they do this last year?

[AwesomeAustin]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Rivers really don't have to have 2018 season to win a bunch of games for Indy. 

As long as he keeps the interceptions to a minimum and gets the ball to the skill players, IMO the talent is there.  

I think we have a more balanced deeper team that we have had in a long time. 

As far as seeding, it always comes down to taking care of business in your own division. 

I agree but until this defense steps up I will continue to consider them average. The pieces are there for a solid team.  Young guys just need to pan out.
 

This next statement Is full of assumption and is merely my opinion which matters zero.  If Rivers doesn’t get us into the playoffs Ballard and Reich will be on the Hot Seat. It’s not fair that Luck retired but I said back then it would ultimately cost these two guys their jobs.  A lot is riding on Rivers being able to lead this team. I think Irsay put pressure on Ballard to get this thing turned around and Rivers was the best choice to win now. Two more losing seasons and I could easily see them gone. Sad bc I think they are really good but dealt a terrible hand.  That’s business and happens all the time.  

[cbear]

USA Today has them as the 8th favorite to win the super bowl. I love the hype! 

[superrep1967]

On 9/5/2020 at 1:38 PM, CR91 said:

I don't see how the pats get more then 8 wins

I hope they get at least 8 wins so they don't get Lawrence and the Jags to. But both teams seem to be tanking to me. 

18 minutes ago, cbear said:

USA Today has them as the 8th favorite to win the super bowl. I love the hype! 

I do to because it means absolutely nothing. 

[superrep1967]

21 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Rivers really don't have to have 2018 season to win a bunch of games for Indy. 

As long as he keeps the interceptions to a minimum and gets the ball to the skill players, IMO the talent is there.  

I think we have a more balanced deeper team that we have had in a long time. 

As far as seeding, it always comes down to taking care of business in your own division. 

Yeah, I like our team to it'll be very interesting to see how this team plays when the season starts. We sure look good on paper but it's why they play the games so will see the talk mean nothing. 

[Colts_Fan12]

honestly I'm thinking more 2nd or 3rd seed but thats just me lol

[Myles]

Here are their 2019 final simulation results:

 

AFC East

NE 10.7 wins, 87.1% to make playoffs, 80.3 to win division, 13.9 to win Super Bowl

NYJ 6.9, 18.8%, 7.6%, 0.4%

BUF 6.6, 15.2%, 6.6%, 0.3%

MIA 6.5, 13.3%, 5.5%, 0.2%

 

AFC West

KC 10.6, 81.95, 60.9%, 15.8%

LAC 9.3, 56.5%, 27.1%, 4.7%

DEN 7.5, 24.0%, 8.4%, 1.0%

OAK 6.5, 11.6%, 3.7%, 0.3%

 

AFC North

PIT 9.3, 61.1%, 43.7%, 5.0%

CLE 8.4, 44.4%, 26.7%, 2.3%

CIN 7.5, 28.2%, 15.0%, 1.0%

BAL 7.4, 26.5%, 14.5%, 0.9%

 

AFC South

HOU 8.0, 39.6%, 31.1%, 2.0%

TEN 8.0, 38.2%, 29.4%, 1.7%

JAX 7.6, 31.1%, 23.1%, 1.2%

IND 7.1, 22.6%, 16.2%, 0.5%

 

NFC East

PHI 9.4, 61.7%, 48.6%, 5.5%

DAL 8.5, 43.0%, 30.2%, 2.8%

NYG 7.3, 22.4%, 13.7%, 0.8%

WAS 6.5, 13.0%, 7.5%, 0.3%

 

NFC West

LA 9.6, 65.9%, 48.3%, 7.7%

SEA 8.6, 47.2%, 28.6%, 4.0%

SF 8.0, 35.6%, 20.0%, 2.0%

ARZ 5.7, 7.7%, 3.6%, 0.1%

 

NFC North

MIN 8.4, 44.7%, 32.5%, 3.1%

CHI 8.1, 39.8%, 28.4%, 2.3%

GB 8.0, 35.8%, 24.7%, 2.0%

DET 7.1, 22.2%, 14.5%, 0.8%

 

NFC South

NO 10.3, 76.9%, 60.6%, 12.8%

ATL 8.2, 37.6%, 19.2%, 2.8%

CAR 7.4, 24.4%, 10.8%, 0.9%

TB 7.3, 22.2%, 9.4%, 1.1%

[coltsfeva]

   One could argue that the Colts have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Health is always a question mark but should starters go down during the course of the year, the Colts have a lot of good players to step up (with the exception of AC).

    I agree that this list looks like it was heavily influenced by last year.

     But consider this: although Mahomes, Watson, Rogers and Jackson are phenomenal, none of them can hurt you, if they are sitting on the bench.

 

[FortheWin]

This simulator must not be looking at current rosters. Colts should be higher. Steelers should be on the list and the Pats should not be there at all.