Khari Willis in good company

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[Imgrandojji]

Nice.  Good for him!

 

We have sooooo many rookies on D now.  Our DC and his team of coaches have their work cut out trying to put the pieces together, especially without a couple of key veterans.

[MPStack]

I wonder how many were 50 yards down field? 

[Colts_Fan12]

I want him to be a stud so bad hes from MSU the more spartans on our team the happier I am 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think he is going to be very good. He will take over for Geathers after hooker returns. I could see us resigning Geathers but as Willis backup. He had stayed healthy so far. I would rather keep gathers as his backup then drafting a rookie. 

[Fisticuffs111]

Glad he's doing well. He's the standout in this rookie class so far, and probably will be for the rest of the season, at least as far as defensive rookies go.

[SteelCityColt]

This shows why raw tackle volume is not a good stat..

[Flash7]

It's just a random stat: At least 21 tackles + 1 TFL? 

 

What's the logic behind that? Why is that stat indicative of anything?

[colt18]

The most arbitrary stat ever, but cool

[krunk]

I'm starting to like him the more I watch him play.  He plays hard and he cares about what he's doing.  You can tell that.

[compuls1v3]

15 minutes ago, krunk said:

I'm starting to like him the more I watch him play.  He plays hard and he cares about what he's doing.  You can tell that.

That TFL was a heads up play, a thing of beauty.  I wish more of our defense would play like that.

[MPStack]

49 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

It's just a random stat: At least 21 tackles + 1 TFL? 

 

What's the logic behind that? Why is that stat indicative of anything?

 

It’s means K. Willis is going to be the next Bob Sanders. Book it! The stats don’t lie.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[dodsworth]

Imagine how good he will be once he is familiar with the defense.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I heard today that he is third among rookies in tackles.

[SteelCityColt]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I heard today that he is third among rookies in tackles.

 

Sigh.. volume of tackles is not necessarily an especially good indicator of talent. 

 

Not to say that Willis hasn’t played well, he’s an exciting prospect. 

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Sigh.. volume of tackles is not necessarily an especially good indicator of talent. 

 

Not to say that Willis hasn’t played well, he’s an exciting prospect. 

I agree. Derwin james had pass break ups,ints, and TFL  to go along with his tackles

[NewColtsFan]

35 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I agree. Derwin james had pass break ups,ints, and TFL  to go along with his tackles

Thanks, Stephen....

 

You just compared Derwin James and his FULL SEASON of stats with Khari Willis and his FOUR GAMES of stats.

 

Appreciate that....

 

[SteelCityColt]

1 hour ago, Stephen said:

I agree. Derwin james had pass break ups,ints, and TFL  to go along with his tackles

 

While yes that is indicative of a player who makes different and more types of plays, again just looking at volume doesn't give the full context. 

 

Rates at least give you an idea of efficiency/success. So let's say a DB has minimal pass break ups. Volume alone, they look like a bad player. Add the context of number of targets and PBU/Target and you might then be able to  infer QBs avoid them, and on the few targets their way they break up the pass more often than not so maybe not such a bad player after all. 

 

Conversely a Safety with sky high tackle numbers. Surely a good player? Or does it indicate they have a poor front 7 in front of them, meaning they're getting more opportunities to make the tackle. Of are they getting burned in coverage and making lots of tackles post catch. What about if we throw in no. missed tackles and it's high %. Sure they've made 50 tackles, but missed 15, still a good player? 

 

Stats are great, but they are only ever a supporting arm of football analysis, and quite often badly misunderstood or misused. Film is still the overall king for evaluation. 

[Stephen]

42 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Thanks, Stephen....

 

You just compared Derwin James and his FULL SEASON of stats with Khari Willis and his FOUR GAMES of stats.

 

Appreciate that....

 

I'm talking about at the same point of the season.

[Stephen]

49 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Thanks, Stephen....

 

You just compared Derwin James and his FULL SEASON of stats with Khari Willis and his FOUR GAMES of stats.

 

Appreciate that....

 

Other than tackles there is no comparison  between  the two. Derwin james had three  sacks, six passes defensed, and an int to go along with his tackles in the first 4 games. Khari willis has 1 pass defensed.

[Colt Overseas]

The kid is still playing well, even if those stats are not the best indicator. 

 

4 TFLs through 4 games is very good for a SS, with that being said. Hopefully we will see him pop up more in the PDef/INT stat line too. He comes across as a intelligent, hard working guy with leadership qualities. He will be a good player for us in the future, Ballard got good value in him in the 4th round. 

[MikeCurtis]

The guy has some talent

 

WHO KNOW what we have with him?  (I dont)

 

Lets give the kid some time

 

He isnt Bob Sanders.......

He isnt TJ Green.......

 

He will PROBABLY be something in between

 

Im excited so far, he seems like the best rookie from this class..... So far

 

 

[CoachLite]

18 hours ago, Flash7 said:

It's just a random stat: At least 21 tackles + 1 TFL? 

 

What's the logic behind that? Why is that stat indicative of anything?

There are several references to the Colts using analytics. Here's the "why".

www.sthda.com/english/articles/31-principal-component-methods-in-r-practical-guide/120-correspondence-analysis-theory-and-practice/ 

[lollygagger8]

As much as I don't like a safety having the most tackles on the team for a game, I think the guy has a great future ahead of him. 

[BigQungus]

Guys...

 

The post isn't saying he's gonna be one of those guys, or he's in that calibre yet...

 

It's just saying that in terms of number of tackles, he has been really good, so much so that he's on par with those guys as rookies in their first 4 games...

 

Chill out

[pgt_rob]

I'm actually more surprised that he's had at least 21 tackles so far. I've seen him out there but didn't realize he's been wrapping up that many people.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

You guys take stuff way to serious. It’s just a stat.

[krunk]

Now that i see him a little closer another name that comes to my mind when i watch his style of play is Rodney Harrison. Same number too. I can see some tidbits of Rodney in his style.

[PeterBowman]

2 minutes ago, krunk said:

Now that i see him a little closer another name that comes to my mind when i watch his style of play is Rodney Harrison. Same number too. I can see some tidbits of Rodney in his style.

minus the dirty play 

[Coffeedrinker]

Well, the stat I read is he leads all rookie safeties since 2017 to have at least 21 tackles, 1 TFL while wearing a white helmet with a blue horseshoe on it.

[richard pallo]

If he keeps this up the coaches are going to have a hard time finding a reason to put him back on the bench and not start him.  I think he and Hooker have the makings of becoming a real force at the back end.  

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

he seems to be a force we needed on defense

[SteelCityColt]

1 hour ago, BigQungus said:

Guys...

 

The post isn't saying he's gonna be one of those guys, or he's in that calibre yet...

 

It's just saying that in terms of number of tackles, he has been really good, so much so that he's on par with those guys as rookies in their first 4 games...

 

Chill out

 

Everyone is chill, most people are saying they are excited by him. Just having a discussion about the merits of tackle volume as a performance stat...

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

You guys take stuff way to serious. It’s just a stat.

 

Heaven forbid we'd have a discussion about a post made on a discussion forum.. and a football one to boot at that. Too often outlets cherry pick stats that have minimal significance in reality to make a narrative, giving them a nice bite sized tweet to post out. 

[DougDew]

I think he's probably had a lot more opportunities since he's played a number of positions in the first 4 games.  I wonder what his tackle rate would be compared to the others if you looked at minutes played, not that it would be perfect information either.

[SteelCityColt]

19 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think he's probably had a lot more opportunities since he's played a number of positions in the first 4 games.  I wonder what his tackle rate would be compared to the others if you looked at minutes played, not that it would be perfect information either.

 

Maybe not minutes played.. but per snap:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MNf_2vvvkkjmCPkhBUSlcT7-FAspEmk7EBLSZw9H-Bo/edit?usp=sharing

[DougDew]

34 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Maybe not minutes played.. but per snap:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MNf_2vvvkkjmCPkhBUSlcT7-FAspEmk7EBLSZw9H-Bo/edit?usp=sharing

I don't understand those stats for sure.  I think its showing that Geathers, Wilson, and Moore each have by far the most snaps this year for our secondary players, with Desir having very few.  (has he been hurt?).  It also shows that Willis is splitting time with Hooker as a FS more so than with Geathers as a SS (when we play zone more than man coverage?)  as I think has been mentioned even before Hooker got hurt.

[Defjamz26]

The tackles are meaningless. I don’t look at base stats but the mount of negative plays a defender makes. TFLs, sacks, INTs, and PDs.

 

Willis has 1 TFL and 1 PD. But to put the 21 tackles into context, you can see on the field that he’s always around the ball and his technique is very textbook. These are good signs for a rookie 4th round pick. I want to see how he continues to do in coverage before I label him though.

[aaron11]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't understand those stats for sure.  I think its showing that Geathers, Wilson, and Moore each have by far the most snaps this year for our secondary players, with Desir having very few.  (has he been hurt?).  It also shows that Willis is splitting time with Hooker as a FS more so than with Geathers as a SS (when we play zone more than man coverage?)  as I think has been mentioned even before Hooker got hurt.

they might be because they were expecting a run.  they wont always have time to make that switch but might as well when they can 

 

i think hooker is a key piece to this defense, but against the run hes little more than a last line of defense 

 

[DougDew]

29 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

they might be because they were expecting a run.  they wont always have time to make that switch but might as well when they can 

 

i think hooker is a key piece to this defense, but against the run hes little more than a last line of defense 

 

I was just trying to get a handle on how they are using Willis to help understand the stats Chloe has provided.

 

On that stat page, it shows Turay playing as many snaps as almost anybody else on defense.  He has 1 sack and 8 combined tackles.  Ouch!

 

I know they play different positions, but Quincy Wilson has put up basically the same stats as EJ Speed.  Goodness.

 

(I'm not sure the games played and snap count is correct for all of the players though.)