Draft implications

[ColtStrong2013]

I read and hear a lot of concern and pessimism from Colts fans and the media toward the franchise regarding the draft. Many feel that moving back to 6 is going to end with disappointment by missing out on Chubb, Barkley, possibly Nelson.

 

Here's the thing: as much as those guys are all elite players, they might not be Ballard's first choice to begin with. They might very well be off the board by the time we pick at 6, and we might be looking to move back even further for extra capital depending on how things are going.

 

This is a rebuild and any one of those 3 players, while they certainly would make their mark on our roster, will not make or break this team. We will snag a player, whether at 6, or a couple at 12 and 21 following a trade with the Bills, that will help improve this roster... Period. 

 

The success of this draft will not be determined by #6. And it should not be at the conclusion of this draft nor at season's end. Let's sit back and enjoy a deep talent pool and the draft capital this front office has to work with. More importantly, let's give this coaching staff some time to develop these men into football players and watch the success build every game over the next few season's. Patience will pay dividends with this team. I'm encouraged by the youth, vision, and patience in the Colts operation right now. 

[Maniac]

I can’t see all 3 of those guys being gone at 6 but I do think Barkley will be.

[ColtStrong2013]

39 minutes ago, BlackPanther said:

I can’t see all 3 of those guys being gone at 6 but I do think Barkley will be.

I can't either, which is why I think we are sitting in great shape. We might be looking to take offers all night leading up to our pick and trying to move back a few spots if two of the three are available at 6. No one knows what Ballard's idea of a perfect draft is. The only thing we know for sure is he is going through with his word to build through the draft and he wants to acquire as many high picks as possible. I won't be shocked if he passes on one of those guys if the price is right. 

[Smonroe]

55 minutes ago, BlackPanther said:

I can’t see all 3 of those guys being gone at 6 but I do think Barkley will be.

 

Possible.  Browns take Barkley, Giants take Chubb, Broncos take Nelson. 

 

Probably as good a scenario as any.  If we (re) learned anything from last season, it’s that no one has a clue what’s really going to happen.  

 

But if it did play out that way, I’d be happy with Smith, James, Fitz, or Edmunds.  

[IinD]

There is always (or usually) one or two surprises at the top. Who thought Trubisky at #2?

 

There will be a 'big name' that will slip a little. Happens every year to some extent. We will definitely have a blue chip player to choose.

[Hoose]

34 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

Possible.  Browns take Barkley, Giants take Chubb, Broncos take Nelson. 

 

Probably as good a scenario as any.  If we (re) learned anything from last season, it’s that no one has a clue what’s really going to happen.  

 

But if it did play out that way, I’d be happy with Smith, James, Fitz, or Edmunds.  

If it turns out that way, the Colts are in the catbird's seat as far as a trade for the #6 pick. There will be a line at the door. 

[shasta519]

Who is pessimistic? That trade back was the best thing to happen in a long time. I am all for doing it again.

 

I am not really sure how you can be disappointed in missing out on a LG, a  RB and a good DE prospect. By default, Barkley and Nelson being the top prospects makes it a weaker draft at the top. Seems counterintuitive.

 

[Smonroe]

38 minutes ago, Hoose said:

If it turns out that way, the Colts are in the catbird's seat as far as a trade for the #6 pick. There will be a line at the door. 

 

Not sure I follow.  The only trade I see would be Arizona wanting to jump in front of Buffalo.

 

 Anything can happen, but I’d think it would have to be special for Ballard to move back again.  And if three QBs are already off the board, would a team really give up much for that fourth guy?  

 

It’s going to be a great night...make that a great three days!

[Nesjan3]

i will admit i was kind of sad at the thought of probably missing out on Barkley and Chubb, but we are a team in desperate need of talent at most position, so bring in all the draft picks we can i say, this year and next year.

[Malakai432]

I kind of feel indifferent because of so many holes.  There’s probably going to be someone there at 6 they really like.  At the same time if people decide not to go all QB with the first 6 picks, lets say Allen or Rosen are still there then someone might offer King Kong’s ransom for one of them.  I’d prefer them to stay at 6 for the most part.  I have a feeling Nelson will be there at least.  

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

Who is pessimistic? That trade back was the best thing to happen in a long time. I am all for doing it again.

 

I am not really sure how you can be disappointed in missing out on a LG, a  RB and a good DE prospect. By default, Barkley and Nelson being the top prospects makes it a weaker draft at the top. Seems counterintuitive.

 

Plenty throughout this forum but specifically from the media. I think a great deal of folks thought the Colts were in prime position to get Chubb or Barkley at 3 and would do so... then thought they were going to be the winners of the draft after trading back to 6 and Chubb still likely there... to NYG moving Pierre-paul and possibly taking Chubb at 2. 

 

It's such a circus act with the buildup to the draft. My feeling is this: let it play out all the way up to pick #6, and see what falls in our lap. We might be shocked what happens. We are sitting in great shape with the roster holes currently needing filled, and the vision of this organization going forward. I'm in favor of taking the highest bidder regardless what happens and letting your scouting and hard work over the past year take care of itself and bringing in 5-7 starting caliber players. This team needs that more than Chubb or Nelson. 

[needanoline63]

If barkley isn’t there. We should draft nelson

[Barry Sears]

To me, we'll get an elite player at #6 and it will fill one of our many holes.

 

Then with 3 picks in the 2nd round we should be able to get 3 potential starters to fill other holes we have.

 

There are 22 positions on a team and with three picks in the 2nd round we can potentially get one of the top 3 players at a particular position.

 

The picks in the 2nd round will go a long way toward building this team.  The 6th pick is a given to start.

 

So, we're in great shape and can look for BPA in the later rounds to build depth, competition and find another starter for either 2018 or 2019.

[ColtStrong2013]

14 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

To me, we'll get an elite player at #6 and it will fill one of our many holes.

 

Then with 3 picks in the 2nd round we should be able to get 3 potential starters to fill other holes we have.

 

There are 22 positions on a team and with three picks in the 2nd round we can potentially get one of the top 3 players at a particular position.

 

The picks in the 2nd round will go a long way toward building this team.  The 6th pick is a given to start.

 

So, we're in great shape and can look for BPA in the later rounds to build depth, competition and find another starter for either 2018 or 2019.

I think with the current holes in the roster, and success in the past few years in rounds 3-5, I expect starting caliber players in those rounds... given they are essentially carryovers from the previous rounds, with top 3 and 4 picks in each one respectively. I posted earlier, the only disappointing thing for this draft is if we don't come away with 5-7 starters... and we won't know this for a year or two. 

[Four2itus]

4 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I think with the current holes in the roster, and success in the past few years in rounds 3-5, I expect starting caliber players in those rounds... given they are essentially carryovers from the previous rounds, with top 3 and 4 picks in each one respectively. I posted earlier, the only disappointing thing for this draft is if we don't come away with 5-7 starters... and we won't know this for a year or two. 

7 starters? Fuhreal?

 

That would not curb disappointment....that would be other worldly. 

[MacDee1975]

5 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I think with the current holes in the roster, and success in the past few years in rounds 3-5, I expect starting caliber players in those rounds... given they are essentially carryovers from the previous rounds, with top 3 and 4 picks in each one respectively. I posted earlier, the only disappointing thing for this draft is if we don't come away with 5-7 starters... and we won't know this for a year or two. 

 

If we came away with 3 starters and 4 depth players, that would be a grand slam.

[horseshoecrabs]

Frank Reich at the NFL annual meeting made apparent , To be a relevant team in the NFL you have to be in the top10 in running the ball consistently. He said in his experience it's a given. That's one aspect  of the game they plan on doing. And he also touched on developing better mental toughness.   His words not mine. Just trying to see where their mindset  is when they talk to the media. Sounds like they think just Mack isn't the answer at RB. And they are not looking for a vet in FA, but a young back at some point in the draft. As for when ? We will have to wait and see.

[TheRustonRifle#7]

1 hour ago, horseshoecrabs said:

Frank Reich at the NFL annual meeting made apparent , To be a relevant team in the NFL you have to be in the top10 in running the ball consistently. He said in his experience it's a given. That's one aspect  of the game they plan on doing. And he also touched on developing better mental toughness.   His words not mine. Just trying to see where their mindset  is when they talk to the media. Sounds like they think just Mack isn't the answer at RB. And they are not looking for a vet in FA, but a young back at some point in the draft. As for when ? We will have to wait and see.

Solid points....

[TdungyW/12]

On 3/26/2018 at 3:11 PM, Smonroe said:

 

Possible.  Browns take Barkley, Giants take Chubb, Broncos take Nelson. 

 

Probably as good a scenario as any.  If we (re) learned anything from last season, it’s that no one has a clue what’s really going to happen.  

 

But if it did play out that way, I’d be happy with Smith, James, Fitz, or Edmunds.  

Browns will take darnold at 1 .... barkley might go at 2 to giants if they don’t trade back or get a QB.

[ColtStrong2013]

4 hours ago, Four2itus said:

7 starters? Fuhreal?

 

That would not curb disappointment....that would be other worldly. 

If we trade out of 6 and pick up another top 50 or 2, I don't think 7 is out of question at all... given our roster has much needed upgrades across the board. 

 

We have had undrafted players starting on this roster the past several season's, and you don't think we can find starting caliber upgrades in rounds 4 and 5?? Interesting...

[ColtStrong2013]

http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/IND

 

Quick look shows a lot of holes across the roster, let alone spots that have 5th-7th round draft picks plugged as starters... and we think there can't be 7 upgrades in this draft. 5 is if we land the 1st through 3rd rounds... 7 is if we trade out of 6, add a pick or two in the 3rd, or find a couple upgrades from rounds 4th-7th. Marlon Mack was round 4. Hairston was a 5th rounder... 

 

The title of this subject is Draft Implications... I think some of you should step back, look at the current roster and realize just how big the implications of this draft is.

[fatboy]

Whoever we get at 6, many people would have been excited if we chose him (pre-trade) at 3.  

[Luck 4 president]

No Colts fans were upset with the trade lol everybody wanted a trade back

[ColtStrong2013]

12 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

No Colts fans were upset with the trade lol everybody wanted a trade back

Everybody? Questionable at best... I had 3 text messages from friends that day asking why we would blow our chance at Barkley or Chubb.. I think Nelson is the best we can get at 6 at this point, unless Chubb somehow falls, and as someone mentioned above, it isn't even guaranteed Nelson will be there. 

 

I'm in complete favor of avoiding the decision and continuing to move down and acquire picks. We can get great talent in the first 2 rounds, and really load up. So I loved the move with the Jets, and will be happy regardless at this point... But to say everyone was happy with it is simply not true. 

[Narcosys]

On 26/03/2018 at 11:46 PM, Hoose said:

If it turns out that way, the Colts are in the catbird's seat as far as a trade for the #6 pick. There will be a line at the door. 

Not necessarily. There's not to many more teams that need a qb, and ones that want the 3rd and 4th options. Furthermore, as ballard said, there are only around eight players that are truly worth a top 10 pick. Dropping Abby further down may not fit with his draft board and values. If that's the case, he would likely need the value of a #1-3 overall pick for the 6th. I don't think trend will be willing to pay that.

[ColtStrong2013]

4 hours ago, Narcosys said:

Not necessarily. There's not to many more teams that need a qb, and ones that want the 3rd and 4th options. Furthermore, as ballard said, there are only around eight players that are truly worth a top 10 pick. Dropping Abby further down may not fit with his draft board and values. If that's the case, he would likely need the value of a #1-3 overall pick for the 6th. I don't think trend will be willing to pay that.

Ballards values are clear according to the owner and the HC... They believe this is the best 4 qb's to come out at the same time, and feel fortunate to have moved to 6 as they think 3 will go in the top 5. If not, we don't know what he values. In my opinion, I think he values 3 players at #6, and if all 3 are somehow not on the board, he will move back to a team that wants the 3rd or 4th quarterback option... and there are plenty of teams that need a qb and would be willing to switch and give a little to move up and take one. 

 

It's a moot point to continue talking about #6 of this draft until the Browns and Giants make their moves on draft day. We literally are in a sit and wait game to see what happens. 

[lollygagger8]

Edmunds is pretty good, but I'm still on the Nelson at #6 wagon. 

[Dr. T]

15 hours ago, horseshoecrabs said:

Frank Reich at the NFL annual meeting made apparent , To be a relevant team in the NFL you have to be in the top10 in running the ball consistently. He said in his experience it's a given. That's one aspect  of the game they plan on doing. And he also touched on developing better mental toughness.   His words not mine. Just trying to see where their mindset  is when they talk to the media. Sounds like they think just Mack isn't the answer at RB. And they are not looking for a vet in FA, but a young back at some point in the draft. As for when ? We will have to wait and see.

 

 SMOKESCREEN!

We are going defense with pick #6.

[horseshoecrabs]

1 hour ago, Dr. T said:

 

 SMOKESCREEN!

We are going defense with pick #6.

 

he didn't specify any pick. As for #6 pick Irsay mentioned DE , Ol, 

 

[ColtStrong2013]

8 hours ago, Dr. T said:

 

 SMOKESCREEN!

We are going defense with pick #6.

It could be a little bit of a smokescreen, but also a lot of what they are planning on doing in the 2nd round. As deep as the runningback class is in this draft, there is a day one started to be found with one of our early picks... 

 

I do believe we will take Chubb if available, but that isn't to say we are going to turn down Nelson if Chubb is gone and Nelson is there for us.... he could go a long way into that running game Reich speaks of.

[AZColt11]

I'm not pessimistic, I just see a different timeline than some.  I don't expect a great season ahead, and I don't see much next season either.  I think 2020 is the year to make a move.  But I could be wrong.

 

I think it starts with a guy like Chubb and a starter on OL and LB.  Next season go after another OL starter and WR.  Who knows what FA will bring as well?  But I still think this roster is so depleted it will take some time.

[horseshoecrabs]

So long as we can see some gradual improvement in the right direction, that would be great. Ballard would like to build a core of a young group of players first before down the line adding bigger FA's. That makes a lot of sense more than adding them to an obvious rebuilding team we have now.  This is what Luck should have had from the start of his career.  

[ColtStrong2013]

2 hours ago, AZColt11 said:

I'm not pessimistic, I just see a different timeline than some.  I don't expect a great season ahead, and I don't see much next season either.  I think 2020 is the year to make a move.  But I could be wrong.

 

I think it starts with a guy like Chubb and a starter on OL and LB.  Next season go after another OL starter and WR.  Who knows what FA will bring as well?  But I still think this roster is so depleted it will take some time.

I wasn't referring to being pessimistic to expectations of the roster shape and success in the next few years. Although I agree with Coach Reich when he said with the right couple pieces they might not be far off at all... A healthy Luck makes this poor roster a playoff contender. Add a couple key pieces that have immediate impact and playmaking ability like Hooker did last season before going down... we might be onto something.

 

I was referring to pessimism about the success of this draft after trading down. I have seen a lot, not necessarily here, but through the media / social media, of people thinking we will miss out on an elite player (Chubb/Barkley/Nelson) by trading down... and they obviously don't think the 3 extra picks we received wasn't worth the low risk gamble. I think it was brilliant and the timing was perfect. I think it could lead to other opportunities to trade, this year, and next...

 

Accumulate picks, build through the draft, develop your players, and don't have predictable and horrible game managing coaches running the team. Breath of fresh air from the last 6 years of my life as a Colts fanatic.

[coltsfeva]

14 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

It could be a little bit of a smokescreen, but also a lot of what they are planning on doing in the 2nd round. As deep as the runningback class is in this draft, there is a day one started to be found with one of our early picks... 

 

I do believe we will take Chubb if available, but that isn't to say we are going to turn down Nelson if Chubb is gone and Nelson is there for us.... he could go a long way into that running game Reich speaks of.

 Here’s what I think the difference may be between Chubb & Nelson: 

As far as defensive ends, no one is close to Chubbs talent (at least that is the consensus).

With Nelson, you have Hernandez and Wynn who may be there at 12 or perhaps 22.

That being said, if they end up picking Nelson at 6, I’d be happy (unless they pass on Chubb). If they trade down and get a guy like Roquan Smith & Wynn/Hernandez, I’d be happy as well.

  Lastly, you have to take returning players from last year into account when assessing team talent.

   Luck, Geathers, Swoope, Mewhort, Kelly and Hooker’s return adds some pretty good overall talent to this team.

[ColtStrong2013]

35 minutes ago, coltsfeva said:

 Here’s what I think the difference may be between Chubb & Nelson: 

As far as defensive ends, no one is close to Chubbs talent (at least that is the consensus).

With Nelson, you have Hernandez and Wynn who may be there at 12 or perhaps 22.

That being said, if they end up picking Nelson at 6, I’d be happy (unless they pass on Chubb). If they trade down and get a guy like Roquan Smith & Wynn/Hernandez, I’d be happy as well.

  Lastly, you have to take returning players from last year into account when assessing team talent.

   Luck, Geathers, Swoope, Mewhort, Kelly and Hooker’s return adds some pretty good overall talent to this team.

I agree. What you said is exactly what I have always argued with friends when talking about BPA. Just because a player like Nelson is possibly the best in the draft overall, doesn't mean he is the BPA. Positional value means something. Depth in any given draft should have a value when selecting a player. 

 

In my opinion, Chubb is hands down the #1 BPA in the draft... for any team. There are 4 top echelon quarterbacks in this draft, among many other quality signal callers. Pass rusher is the hardest position to find, and Chubb is hands down the best in this draft. That has to put him high on the board, which also makes me feel like we will be very lucky to land him at #6... It also goes to what some have been complaining about. We had better odds at 3, and some don't feel three 2nd rounders are worth missing out on a player like Chubb... 

 

I like our chances of landing a big time player in the 1st round, and loading up on talent with the picks we received from the Jets. 

[AZColt11]

On 3/28/2018 at 11:45 PM, ColtStrong2013 said:

I wasn't referring to being pessimistic to expectations of the roster shape and success in the next few years. Although I agree with Coach Reich when he said with the right couple pieces they might not be far off at all... A healthy Luck makes this poor roster a playoff contender. Add a couple key pieces that have immediate impact and playmaking ability like Hooker did last season before going down... we might be onto something.

 

I was referring to pessimism about the success of this draft after trading down. I have seen a lot, not necessarily here, but through the media / social media, of people thinking we will miss out on an elite player (Chubb/Barkley/Nelson) by trading down... and they obviously don't think the 3 extra picks we received wasn't worth the low risk gamble. I think it was brilliant and the timing was perfect. I think it could lead to other opportunities to trade, this year, and next...

 

Accumulate picks, build through the draft, develop your players, and don't have predictable and horrible game managing coaches running the team. Breath of fresh air from the last 6 years of my life as a Colts fanatic.

Oh I see.  I completely missed that, sorry.  Agreed on all points.

[Valpo2004]

On 3/26/2018 at 5:11 PM, BlackPanther said:

I can’t see all 3 of those guys being gone at 6 but I do think Barkley will be.

 

Agreed.  There is going to be a bunch of QB's drafted at the top. 

 

I should think at least 3 QB's go before we pick at 6.  That leaves 2 picks for Barkley, Nelson, and Chubb.

 

Barkley I'm sure will be gone.  But either Nelson or Chubb should fall to Indy.

 

If not then execute a trade with the Bills for more picks.  There is still plenty of talent in this draft.  

[aaron11]

On 3/29/2018 at 7:42 AM, coltsfeva said:

 

   Luck, Geathers, Swoope, Mewhort, Kelly and Hooker’s return adds some pretty good overall talent to this team.

thats a lot of talent if they are all 100%, but that is also a big assumption for luck, geathers, hooker and mewhort 

[indyagent17]

On 3/26/2018 at 6:13 PM, IinD said:

There is always (or usually) one or two surprises at the top. Who thought Trubisky at #2?

 

There will be a 'big name' that will slip a little. Happens every year to some extent. We will definitely have a blue chip player to choose.

 

Fitzpatrick could slip to 12