Blowing the chance to get a good draft pick

[crazycolt1]

4 hours ago, aaron11 said:

miss the playoffs anyway and still not get decent draft picks

 

yay

The bottom line is it's not where a team picks it's how well the players taken work out. This is just another whine thread.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I know. It happens every year, which is why the NFL will likely modify the playoff requirements in the near future.

 

I know anything can happen(7-9 Rams upsetting the defending Saints a few years ago) but does anyone here really wanna see this team in the playoffs?

 

Tanking might be a bit extreme, but I'm not inclined to sit here and cheer for the team beating a garbage Dolphins team while holding out hope that a miracle will happen and we'll somehow end up in the playoffs.

 

I wouldn't expect anything from the Colts if they did make the playoffs. If Luck was back, there'd be a better shot, but the roster is still broken. Playoff hopes are pretty much done now anyways. That's not really the point, though.

 

The NFL is pretty uninterested in changing the playoff format. Win your division, and you're in. I don't see it changing anytime soon. Could be wrong... Either way, it's not a travesty if the Steelers don't get in. 

 

My point, specific to the thread, is that it's silly to act like if the Colts don't pick in the top ten that this franchise is going to suffer through mediocrity for the foreseeable future. 

[JRnINDY]

42 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think you got fed some very bad info.    NFL.com had a story this week about teams most likely to be in the top-10.    The Colts were NOT on that list.

 

Here's an updated story as of about 5:25p West Coast time,  8:25p Indy time.     At this point,  they have us projected to pick 17th.      I don't think there are enough teams to push us into the top-15.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000572264/article/2016-nfl-draft-order-and-needs-nos-1120

 

Hey, I'd love to be wrong.....    but I think the math says I'm right....

 

Sad part of this list is that we are .500 (3-3) against the 1-10 worst teams.

 

Depending on W/L next week of us and 4 others we can range from 16-20 pick.

As it looks if we lost today and next week we could have been 6-9.

Thats a significant difference. Oh well, still happy for the win today but might be * come draft day...lol

[GoColts8818]

4 hours ago, aaron11 said:

it goes both ways. 

 

how dare we try to get better draft picks on a team that has a shortage of talent

If you are completely out of the playoff picture then fine, but when you have a chance to be in the playoffs that's what you shoot for. 

 

[crazycolt1]

6 hours ago, James said:

 

No, I'm just not one of these "OMG how can you be a Colts fan and wanting them to lose. Where's your pride?!".

I look at the big picture, i.e. the future. We have injuries (key one is Luck), and the playoffs are not going to happen. No, it isn't. With that in mind, why keep fielding the strongest squad, thus risking more (key) players getting injured or players getting reinjured. People wanting to throw Luck in there the last week? Are you serious?

The main reason is, however, draft pick. When the season is lost, which it is... then what we are doing doesn't make sense if the goal is to improve the squad. Even it's just marginally better odds at getting an impact players, we should go for it. 

 

Did you want to beat the Jags in the last game of the 2011 season - even if it meant not having the chance to draft Luck with the 1st overall pick? Obviously because it's so important to win now and not think of the future?

And yes, I'm aware it's not quite the same with next year's draft. But in principle it's the same.

We are not gonna make the playoffs. What we are doing righ now is stupid. 

I want my team to play at their best no matter what the circumstances are. At the position the Colts are going to be picking at makes no difference at this point. They are not looking at a #1 pick. The Colts didn't tank a game to get the chance to draft Luck so why should they start now? Holding your head up with the knowledge you played your best is investing in the future. Tanking is for quitters and you evidently don't care if the Colts tank. Sorry to inform you but that is a character flaw. It is not where the Colts pick, it's making the best choice when the time comes. The bulk of the best players at the right price comes after the 1st round. The perennial winning teams do not have high picks and they don't seem to have any problems finding the talent to keep winning. The mindset of wanting your team to lose is not what being a fan is.

[ztboiler]

The best preparation for winning has always been and always will be.....winning.  

[crazycolt1]

6 hours ago, James said:

 

Given our situation (injuries and not winning the division - no, we aren't. Deal with it), I would have very much liked to rest a lot of starters on both D and O. That will make our performances worse, without forfeiting.

 

The draft is no sure thing, but I like to have a better chance to get an impact player.  Thinking of the future this makes sense, also considering our injuries.

One thing you over looked. At this point in the season the whole FO is looking at who is going to stay and who is gone. These last couple of games could mean a lot to quite a few players. If the FO feels any player didn't play to their best they will be gone. I am quite sure that Irsay does not want any player on his team who is a quitter. These are pro players who get paid to do a job. If your not going to do your job because of effort then your not earning your money therefor your not needed. You say the draft is no sure thing out of one side of your mouth then whine because you think the Colts need to tank? Like I said earlier, the Colts have no need for fans with your mindset.

[Defjamz26]

6 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I wouldn't expect anything from the Colts if they did make the playoffs. If Luck was back, there'd be a better shot, but the roster is still broken. Playoff hopes are pretty much done now anyways. That's not really the point, though.

 

The NFL is pretty uninterested in changing the playoff format. Win your division, and you're in. I don't see it changing anytime soon. Could be wrong... Either way, it's not a travesty if the Steelers don't get in. 

 

My point, specific to the thread, is that it's silly to act like if the Colts don't pick in the top ten that this franchise is going to suffer through mediocrity for the foreseeable future. 

 

We agree then. I don't care about getting a top 10 pick.  Most people saying that just really want Jaylon Smith. But if the GM values him that highly they can just trade up for him.

 

If we end up picking 15-17th, which seems likely, we'll still be in a good position. It's way better than drafting  at 26-29.

[Knox Harrington]

Don't lose on purpose but play the practice squad if they still have 1. Then again I'm not sure Grigson can handle any good draft picks.

[Restored]

At this point, the Colts would need a top 10 pick for Grigson to take advantage of it.

[throwing BBZ]

20 hours ago, Cynjin said:

Okay, I get what you are saying.  However, to say they suck at sucking is ridiculous, they are not going to just lay down or sit healthy players.  Your original statement makes no sense, because they are going to put forth an effort even if it means not getting a higher draft pick.

 

 

21 hours ago, James said:

We even suck at sucking..

 

 

 We sucked a fair amount yesterday and still got a win.

 Of course a DA Ref stole a touchdown from them and they would have only needed a field goal to win.
 And they got plenty close at the end to say they would have hit a winner.
 That is what really sucked.

[Cynjin]

24 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 

 

 We sucked a fair amount yesterday and still got a win.

 Of course a DA Ref stole a touchdown from them and they would have only needed a field goal to win.
 And they got plenty close at the end to say they would have hit a winner.
 That is what really sucked.

 

Yes they did suck a fair amount, especially in the second half and that OPI call was horrible.

[Jason_]

10 hours ago, Knox Harrington said:

Don't lose on purpose but play the practice squad if they still have 1. Then again I'm not sure Grigson can handle any good draft picks.

 

Yes, the Colts still have a Practice squad.  However, in order to play the guys on the practice squad, they would have to be signed to the active roster.  And for that to happen, other players would have to be cut to make room for them on the active roster.

[OffensivelyPC]

Trading picks are allowed in the NFL.

[Doctor Mad]

Putting Luck out there Sunday is lunacy!  Yes, I hope we can win, but risking a team's future is foolhardy.  IMO

 

[chrisfarley]

hard enough to swallow the loss last week vs. Texans , and now this, ugh.

[crazycolt1]

10 hours ago, Knox Harrington said:

Don't lose on purpose but play the practice squad if they still have 1. Then again I'm not sure Grigson can handle any good draft picks.

I guess you really didn't think this out?

[ponyboy]

19 hours ago, aaron11 said:

i am not against tanking when we are not a contender and it gives us a better chance to improve 

 

<sarcasm>

With this logic Tennessee should be even more motivated to tank next week.

 

I can see it now -- a 0-0 tie.  Tennessee has the ball with 2 seconds left in overtime, takes the snap and sprints backward toward it's own goal line.  Butler streaks down the field and gets a shoestring tackle just short of the goal to prevent the safety and a 2-0 Colts win.  Tankers rejoice until they realize the tie hurts the draft position a couple slots.  Maybe the winner of the coin toss should just be awarded the loss.

</sarcasm>

[Myles]

This is tough because I'm on both sides.   I was rooting for the Colts yesterday, but I know the win is going to cost us spots in the draft.   We are not making the playoffs and are slipping down the draft order.

Yesterdays win alone would have taken us from the current 17th spot we are at into the top 10.   So I can see wishing for a loss.   A loss against Ten would then put us solidly in the top 6-9.  

 

To think the team would ever lose on purpose is silly.   Too many jobs on the line.   Players are playing for their jobs.  Coaches are coaching for their jobs.   What can be done though is keeping Luck out of the games this year to be certain he is ready for next season.   Hard to do that when there is still a slim chance at making the playoffs.  Too bad the game is a 1pm game.  

 

Unrelated:

How come the Colts/Dolphins game was on FOX.  Isn't CBS usually the AFC games and FOX NFC exclusively?

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

This is tough because I'm on both sides.   I was rooting for the Colts yesterday, but I know the win is going to cost us spots in the draft.   We are not making the playoffs and are slipping down the draft order.

Yesterdays win alone would have taken us from the current 17th spot we are at into the top 10.   So I can see wishing for a loss.   A loss against Ten would then put us solidly in the top 6-9.  

 

To think the team would ever lose on purpose is silly.   Too many jobs on the line.   Players are playing for their jobs.  Coaches are coaching for their jobs.   What can be done though is keeping Luck out of the games this year to be certain he is ready for next season.   Hard to do that when there is still a slim chance at making the playoffs.  Too bad the game is a 1pm game.  

 

Unrelated:

How come the Colts/Dolphins game was on FOX.  Isn't CBS usually the AFC games and FOX NFC exclusively?

 

Agreed.

 

CBS and FOX can cross-flex up to seven games a year. I'm not sure how it works, but basically some AFC matchups can wind up on FOX, and an equal number of NFC matchups can wind up on CBS.

[Myles]

13 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed.

 

CBS and FOX can cross-flex up to seven games a year. I'm not sure how it works, but basically some AFC matchups can wind up on FOX, and an equal number of NFC matchups can wind up on CBS.

Interesting.

It's just the first time I ever remember seeing a game with 2 AFC teams shown on FOX. 

[tfunky14]

Players play for today and their jobs for next season. To ask them to lay down for a draft pick is the dumbest thing to every say to a NFL player.  

 

 

Maybe you can slack off at your job but not NFL players....They get cut and replaced if they did that.

[NagelHausForge]

On ‎12‎/‎27‎/‎2015 at 5:27 PM, James said:

We even suck at sucking..

 

 

I heard a disturbing stat the other day... In the past 4 years of Grigson drafting there are only 15 draft picks on this team right now from the Grigson era... 15.  In 4 years.  That includes Werner, Holmes, Harrison...

 

So let's not pretend that Grigson would have hit it out of the park with a good draft pick anyways.

[Myles]

1 hour ago, CptHooligan said:

 

I heard a disturbing stat the other day... In the past 4 years of Grigson drafting there are only 15 draft picks on this team right now from the Grigson era... 15.  In 4 years.  That includes Werner, Holmes, Harrison...

 

So let's not pretend that Grigson would have hit it out of the park with a good draft pick anyways.

That is true.   But that may actually play into the side of wanting a higher draft pick.   It is harder to screw up when you draft higher.  

[aaron11]

its getting hard to watch this team, even if they win

 

would i rather skip the games and hope we lose for picks, or watch the corpse of MH struggle to throw 10 yards down the field in meaningless games

 

 

 

 

[rockywoj]

I would predict that the odds of getting a 1st round player that actually turns out to be impactful is about the same percentage of being likely to turn out in the 15ish range of the draft as it is at the 10ish slot range of the draft.  Same percent likelihood exists in each round thereafter as well, when you are looking at draft slots within about 5 spots of each other.   

 

My my own personal inclination is to root for my team to win, as long as there is playoff hopes alive .. because I am a firm believer in the "any given Sunday" concept.   That is, as long as one is in the playoffs, anything can happen and what I cheer for as a fan is for my team to win the Super Bowl.  I don't care whether or not my team is the "best" team, I just want my team to win the Super Bowl Championship, which as often as not, goes to not the "best" team.

 

At the same time, however, I am understanding of the perception that one has a better shot at getting a better player when picking from a higher slot in the draft.   Thus from that perspective, once my team is definitively eliminated, then for the future, I'd like my team to be picking from as high a slot as possible in the draft.

 

The REALITY is, though, that those whining for the team to be losing to pick higher, they are greatly over estimating the likelihood of a selection actually turning out to be a valuable, productive player, when you are looking at a slot variance of only about 5 picks.  Drafting quality is FAR from a sure thing and the boo hoo crowd that wants teams to tank for a higher pick just don't seem to get that.   Of course there are exceptions ... 2012 Andrew Luck, but these are truly "exceptions".  The norm is it's a crap shoot and picking a few slots higher does not appreciably increase your odds of drafting success.   Intuitive perception is not necessarily reality.

 

Ergo, Go Colts!

[SteelCityColt]

3 hours ago, CptHooligan said:

 

I heard a disturbing stat the other day... In the past 4 years of Grigson drafting there are only 15 draft picks on this team right now from the Grigson era... 15.  In 4 years.  That includes Werner, Holmes, Harrison...

 

So let's not pretend that Grigson would have hit it out of the park with a good draft pick anyways.

 

Without some context (such as the average number of draft picks per draft year that are still on roster x years later) we have no idea of whether this is a good or bad amount. Also Harrison wasn't drafted.

For a quick comparison John Schneider from his last 4 years of drafting has only retained 16 players on the current roster. Green Bay (who I'd imagine would be among the highest retainers of drafted players) still only have 19 in the same period.

TLDR - I don't think that number is as bad as you'd think but I'd imagine the CBA is playing into this somewhat. It's so cheap to keep some guys they have to be really bad to get cut. 

[antipatriot]

Stop just stop that is a ridiculous premise no team in any sport should lose on purpose ever it is called self respect and integrity.

[Narcosys]

On Sunday, December 27, 2015 at 4:54 PM, crazycolt1 said:

You are not much of a Colt fan I take it? A true fan would never want their team to lose no matter.

Depends on how you determine a true fan.  Winning now is short term thinking.  If you want us to continually win in the long term,  then is it not better to draft high for a chance at a difference maker that could be with us for a long time?  

 

A true fan should care about the team now and it's future as well, determining what is better for us overall.  This year it is better to get high draft picks than a one and done in the playoffs and draft in the mid 20's rather than top 10-15

[pgt_rob]

Well I don't think we make it this year guys. We did what we could using 2 different QBs for each game pretty much. I think we're projected at a #15 pick now.

[crazycolt1]

36 minutes ago, Narcosys said:

Depends on how you determine a true fan.  Winning now is short term thinking.  If you want us to continually win in the long term,  then is it not better to draft high for a chance at a difference maker that could be with us for a long time?  

 

A true fan should care about the team now and it's future as well, determining what is better for us overall.  This year it is better to get high draft picks than a one and done in the playoffs and draft in the mid 20's rather than top 10-15

Way too much is put into where the Colts pick in the 1st round. We will not have a top 10 pick no matter so why some are making a stink over it is nonsense. It is not where the team picks, it's who they pick. To tank a game is quitting. I do not want any player from the Colts quitting. No matter what the results are they are pro players who get paid to do their job at the best of their abilities. This last game could determine who stays and who is gone for a lot of players and coaches. There is such a thing as pride in case you forgot.

[crazycolt1]

5 hours ago, CptHooligan said:

 

I heard a disturbing stat the other day... In the past 4 years of Grigson drafting there are only 15 draft picks on this team right now from the Grigson era... 15.  In 4 years.  That includes Werner, Holmes, Harrison...

 

So let's not pretend that Grigson would have hit it out of the park with a good draft pick anyways.

Those numbers you are quoting are not unusual. If you look at the rest of the teams in the NFL that is pretty close to the norm. Grigson has had an unusually high number of free agent signings that does skew the numbers you bring up.

[Narcosys]

15 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Way too much is put into where the Colts pick in the 1st round. We will not have a top 10 pick no matter so why some are making a stink over it is nonsense. It is not where the team picks, it's who they pick. To tank a game is quitting. I do not want any player from the Colts quitting. No matter what the results are they are pro players who get paid to do their job at the best of their abilities. This last game could determine who stays and who is gone for a lot of players and coaches. There is such a thing as pride in case you forgot.

So you are saying that where you pick has no relation to who you can pick?

Oh yes pride... isn't that one of those seven deadly sins?  It has been the downfall of nations.

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, Narcosys said:

So you are saying that where you pick has no relation to who you can pick?

Oh yes pride... isn't that one of those seven deadly sins?  It has been the downfall of nations.

The Colts are a NFL team, not a nation. If my comment needs explaining then it would be a waist of time to you.

[Narcosys]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

The Colts are a NFL team, not a nation. If my comment needs explaining then it would be a waist of time to you.

Thanks for ignoring the first part of my post.  The answer is obvious anyways.  It was really a rhetorical question to show flaw in your line of thinking.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, Narcosys said:

Thanks for ignoring the first part of my post.  The answer is obvious anyways.  It was really a rhetorical question to show flaw in your line of thinking.

There is no flaw in my thinking about the Colts and winning and the concept of losing to get a better draft pick. Quitting is for losers. Does that premise need explaining? As far as where the Colts pick there all crap shoots. There have been picks from #1 all the way to #32 who have been bust. The perennial teams that win do not have high draft picks and they don't seem to have any trouble finding the players needed to continue to win. It does not matter where the Colts pick as long as the player taken makes the team better.

[Myles]

44 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Way too much is put into where the Colts pick in the 1st round. We will not have a top 10 pick no matter so why some are making a stink over it is nonsense. It is not where the team picks, it's who they pick. To tank a game is quitting.

 

12 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

 

If the Colts had lost to Miami and then Ten, they most likely would have a top 10 pick.  

Where the team picks is a huge part of who is available.   You are kidding yourself if you think otherwise.  

I agree with your tanking comment.  I would not wish for them to tank, but I would wish for them to lose. 

[Myles]

15 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

 As far as where the Colts pick there all crap shoots. There have been picks from #1 all the way to #32 who have been bust.

It's  Like playing the odds.

Just like if you look at hall of famers.  Guess which round the most were drafted in?   Not a coincidence. 

You have a better chance at getting who you want if you draft at a better position. 

[Narcosys]

19 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

There is no flaw in my thinking about the Colts and winning and the concept of losing to get a better draft pick. Quitting is for losers. Does that premise need explaining? As far as where the Colts pick there all crap shoots. There have been picks from #1 all the way to #32 who have been bust. The perennial teams that win do not have high draft picks and they don't seem to have any trouble finding the players needed to continue to win. It does not matter where the Colts pick as long as the player taken makes the team better.

I get that.  But why limit yourself to the number of draft picks you could choose from, if given the option.

 

Lets run the last week probability of who will win the matchups and see where teams will most likely finish (automatically assuming we lose to Tenn as well).

The top 8 worst teams that we would not be able to place ahead of in the draft would be:

 

1. Cleveland: 3-13

2: San Diego: 4-12

    Tennessee

    Dallas

    SF

6: Miami: 5-11

    Jacksonville

   

There are around 7 teams that would definitely place ahead of us. Had we lost to Miami and Tennessee, we would finish at 6-10.  There are 4 other teams that I project to finish 6-10.  That means that we could place anywhere from 8th, to 11th in draft position.  But now we are 7-8.  So now lets look to see where we finish if we go 7-9

 

8. New Orleans: 6-10

    Tampa Bay

    Chicago

    NY Giants

12. Buffalo: 7-9

    Oakland

    Indianapolis

    Philadelphia

    Detroit

 

This now put us as anywhere from 12th to 16th.  Now lets run it to 8-8 if we beat Tennessee.  (Adjusted for us coming out of the 12th place tie)

 

16. Indianapolis

     St. Louis

That means we can do no better than 16th now and possibly 17th.  If you factor in Buffalo or Oakland winning, then that means we could draft in 18th or 19th.

 

Tell me again how positioning lower doesn't increase our options of getting a better draft pick for a position of need?  Because to me that is quite possibly 8+ positions different, meaning 8 more people to choose, and probably in numerous different positions.  All things being equal of course, because you can't predict busts.  I mean if you don't know, then why even have a draft, why even have a draft position at all if all of them are potential busts?  Because the higher you pick, the better quality of players you have to choose from that could be good.

 

The perennial winners argument is nonsense too.  They typically keep their guys for awhile.  And who are perennial winners?  Patriots?  We know belichick makes that team good regardless of who he gets, he is an outlier.  Packers?  They have kept their difference makers and develop through the draft.  Steelers and Cinci?  They go back and forth and develop through the draft, while keeping their good players.  Why did Cinci get better though?  Because they drafted high for awhile and selected good players.  Same with every other team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[crazycolt1]

41 minutes ago, Narcosys said:

I get that.  But why limit yourself to the number of draft picks you could choose from, if given the option.

 

Lets run the last week probability of who will win the matchups and see where teams will most likely finish (automatically assuming we lose to Tenn as well).

The top 8 worst teams that we would not be able to place ahead of in the draft would be:

 

1. Cleveland: 3-13

2: San Diego: 4-12

    Tennessee

    Dallas

    SF

6: Miami: 5-11

    Jacksonville

   

There are around 7 teams that would definitely place ahead of us. Had we lost to Miami and Tennessee, we would finish at 6-10.  There are 4 other teams that I project to finish 6-10.  That means that we could place anywhere from 8th, to 11th in draft position.  But now we are 7-8.  So now lets look to see where we finish if we go 7-9

 

8. New Orleans: 6-10

    Tampa Bay

    Chicago

    NY Giants

12. Buffalo: 7-9

    Oakland

    Indianapolis

    Philadelphia

    Detroit

 

This now put us as anywhere from 12th to 16th.  Now lets run it to 8-8 if we beat Tennessee.  (Adjusted for us coming out of the 12th place tie)

 

16. Indianapolis

     St. Louis

That means we can do no better than 16th now and possibly 17th.  If you factor in Buffalo or Oakland winning, then that means we could draft in 18th or 19th.

 

Tell me again how positioning lower doesn't increase our options of getting a better draft pick for a position of need?  Because to me that is quite possibly 8+ positions different, meaning 8 more people to choose, and probably in numerous different positions.  All things being equal of course, because you can't predict busts.  I mean if you don't know, then why even have a draft, why even have a draft position at all if all of them are potential busts?  Because the higher you pick, the better quality of players you have to choose from that could be good.

 

The perennial winners argument is nonsense too.  They typically keep their guys for awhile.  And who are perennial winners?  Patriots?  We know belichick makes that team good regardless of who he gets, he is an outlier.  Packers?  They have kept their difference makers and develop through the draft.  Steelers and Cinci?  They go back and forth and develop through the draft, while keeping their good players.  Why did Cinci get better though?  Because they drafted high for awhile and selected good players.  Same with every other team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You make it all cut and dried when it is not. There was still a slim chance the Colts could have made the playoffs and they played to win. Like I stated before. Under no circumstances do I want any Colt player quitting or tanking. That is a loser mentality that is not acceptable. If you are comfortable with quitters on the team that's on you,