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A Colts mock offseason 1.0


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With our season over, I figured I'd kill some time by trying to mock what I'd like to see done with the roster during the offseason.  A few things to note:

1. I expect a lot of this to change throughout the offseason, especially with the draft.  With pro days and the Combine, stocks can go all over the place.  As for free agents, many of them may sign with their current team, meaning they wouldn't even hit the market and thus wouldn't be available to sign.  This is all very preliminary.

2. By no means am I an expert on the cap.  For that reason, my contract numbers may be completely unrealistic.  In that case, feel free to analyze just the moves I'm making as opposed to the contracts I give out.

 

With that said, here is my first mock offseason.

 

Per OverTheCap, we currently have $18 286 940 in available cap space for 2016.

 

Cuts:
Andre Johnson (+$5 mil to cap)
Trent Cole (+$6.125 mil to cap)
D'Qwell Jackson (+$5.25 mil to cap)
Frank Gore (+$4 mil to cap)
Ryan Lindley (+$675K to cap)

Cap after cuts: slightly over $39 mil

I was initially going to cut Freeman, but I figured we could retain him as a cheap, capable backup.

 

Re-signings, restructures, extensions:
Adam Vinatieri (1 year, $1.5 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Dwight Lowery (2 year, $4 mil, $2.75 mil guaranteed, front loaded)
Colt Anderson (2 year, vet min = $1.645 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Coby Fleener (3 year, $10 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed)
Jerrell Freeman (1 year, $3 mil, $1.5 mil guaranteed)
Billy Winn (3 year, $3 mil, $1.65 mil guaranteed)
Jack Doyle (4 year, $3.15 mil, $1.55 mil guaranteed)
Earl Okine (ERFA Tender, $525K, fully guaranteed)
Restructure Art Jones (+$2.493 to cap)
Extend Andrew Luck (6 year, $125 mil, $66 mil guaranteed).  This puts Luck 5th in terms of average/year behind Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning (all of whom have Super Bowl rings), and 1st in terms of guaranteed/year at $11 mil (2nd is Rodgers at $10.8 mil guaranteed/year)

Cap after re-signings, restructures, extensions: slightly over $29 mil

 

Free agents:
Lamar Miller (3 year, $11.5 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed).  It was almost criminal how Miami's coaching staff underutilized him.  Because he was so underutilized and doesn't have as much under his belt, we might be able to get him for cheaper.  We'd be offering him a feature role on a team with a very good young QB.  I'm a big fan of his and I would love to see him in Indy.

 

Janoris Jenkins (3 year, $15.5 mil, $9.5 mil guaranteed).  He's been St. Louis' best corner when healthy.  He fell in the draft due to character concerns, but I don't recall hearing much about him getting into trouble during his time in the NFL.  With Toler gone, I think he could be an excellent #2 corner.  We could have two lockdown guys with him and Vontae.

 

Eric Weddle (3 year, $38 mil, $25 mil guaranteed).  This is my free agent splurge.  He still has a lot left in the tank at age 31 and I wouldn't be fully confident in going into the season with a safety group consisting of a 35 year old Mike Adams, Lowery, and Geathers.  He could really solidify the secondary.

 

Ryan Wendell (2 year, $5 mil, $2.5 mil guaranteed).  He hasn't been healthy recently, which is why we might be able to get him for cheap.  I'm sure some may be screaming no at this because of what happened the last time we tried to sign a Pats' offensive lineman, but if he is healthy, he could be a solid starter and has versatility to play G or C.

 

Use about $8 mil for rookies.
18: R1P18
OLB JAYLON SMITH
NOTRE DAME
Absolute monster who would have been gone by pick 10 for sure were it not for a recent knee injury (note: this pick was made before the recent news that Smith has torn multiple knee ligaments)

48: R2P17
C NICK MARTIN
NOTRE DAME
With his older brother already in the NFL (and doing really well), the bloodline is good here.  Technically sound and could very well be a day 1 starter

82: R3P19
TE HUNTER HENRY
ARKANSAS
Big TE who causes matchup problems, but doesn't provide much in terms of blocking.  Essentially, a Fleener clone from what I've read, though it sounds like he plays a bit more physically.  Even if he isn't as complete as Allen, taking Henry might help offset not re-signing him.

113: R4P18
OLB DEION JONES
LSU
Very athletic, could develop into a good pass rusher

143: R5P16
RB KAREEM HUNT
TOLEDO
Would provide good depth behind Lamar Miller

207: R7P18
CB WAYNE LYONS
MICHIGAN
You can never have enough good DBs, especially with how our corners played last year.  He's got length and tenacity.

 

This would leave us with about $1-2 mil of cap space left for the 2016 season.

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If we could get Hunter Henry in the 3rd that'd be great. And I love the Nick Martin pick too. But we have to add a pass rusher. One who will contribute right away. And I think you've got Jerrell Freeman drastically underpaid lol. He had a really good year and will get a lot more than that.

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Cutting F. Gore will only give the Colts 1mil, he`s 3mil in dead money if released. I`d have zero issues with L. Miller being signed to platoon with Gore. That be a great 1-2 punch. I`m with you on Jenkins and Wendell. Totally disagree with Weddle and that contract. Is he that much of an upgrade over Adams to make the defense better? I think not. As for your draft, I don`t know what to think if Smith is there with the Colts pick. The Martin pick is on point as is H. Harvey.  

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23 minutes ago, jet1968 said:

I like the Nick Martin pick. What I don't like is only 1 offensive lineman drafted.

 

I went under the assumption that Wendell would be healthy.  That would give us a potential starting 5 of Castonzo, Mewhort, Wendell, Martin, and Reitz, which I think could be a pretty solid group if they all remain healthy.

 

4 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

If we could get Hunter Henry in the 3rd that'd be great. And I love the Nick Martin pick too. But we have to add a pass rusher. One who will contribute right away. And I think you've got Jerrell Freeman drastically underpaid lol. He had a really good year and will get a lot more than that.

That's fair.  If Freeman wants a lot more, I think we can let him go.  We have Moore, Irving, and Herrera.  With the money we'd save on Freeman, we could look into signing another ILB in free agency.

 

Just now, MPStack said:

Cutting F. Gore will only give the Colts 1mil, he`s 3mil in dead money if released. I`d have zero issues with L. Miller being signed to platoon with Gore. That be a great 1-2 punch. I`m with you on Jenkins and Wendell. Totally disagree with Weddle and that contract. Is he that much of an upgrade over Adams to make the defense better? I think not. As for your draft, I don`t what to think if Smith is there with the Colts pick. The Martin pick is on point as is H. Harvey.  

I think Weddle would be a big upgrade over Adams.  I'm not a big fan of spending that much money on one player in free agency, but I wasn't confident with the safety group I had, so I decided to make a splash.

 

Regarding Gore, my understanding is that $3 mil is a roster bonus.  His base salary is $1 mil, while the $3 mil is a roster bonus.  If he is a post-June 1 cut or is on the roster come week 1, he makes $3 mil.  If we cut him before that (eg. in February/March), he wouldn't get that and we'd save $4 mil.  When I cut him on OverTheCap, it added $4 mil to my cap.  That's my understanding, but again, I'm not a cap expert at all, so I may be incorrect. 

6 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

I dislike he notion of getting rid of Gore.  I say honor the contract, as I think he can be VERY effective.

He wasn't that great for us last year, in my opinion.  He had fumbling issues and his pass catching underwhelmed me.  He also seemed really frustrated at the end of the year, and his answer to an interview question ("I'm under contract, what can I do?") suggests he may want to leave.

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50 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

With our season over, I figured I'd kill some time by trying to mock what I'd like to see done with the roster during the offseason.  A few things to note:

1. I expect a lot of this to change throughout the offseason, especially with the draft.  With pro days and the Combine, stocks can go all over the place.  As for free agents, many of them may sign with their current team, meaning they wouldn't even hit the market and thus wouldn't be available to sign.  This is all very preliminary.

2. By no means am I an expert on the cap.  For that reason, my contract numbers may be completely unrealistic.  In that case, feel free to analyze just the moves I'm making as opposed to the contracts I give out.

 

With that said, here is my first mock offseason.

 

Per OverTheCap, we currently have $18 286 940 in available cap space for 2016.

 

Cuts:
Andre Johnson (+$5 mil to cap)
Trent Cole (+$6.125 mil to cap)
D'Qwell Jackson (+$5.25 mil to cap)
Frank Gore (+$4 mil to cap)
Ryan Lindley (+$675K to cap)

Cap after cuts: slightly over $39 mil

I was initially going to cut Freeman, but I figured we could retain him as a cheap, capable backup.

 

Re-signings, restructures, extensions:
Adam Vinatieri (1 year, $1.5 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Dwight Lowery (2 year, $4 mil, $2.75 mil guaranteed, front loaded)
Colt Anderson (2 year, vet min = $1.645 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Coby Fleener (3 year, $10 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed)
Jerrell Freeman (1 year, $3 mil, $1.5 mil guaranteed)
Billy Winn (3 year, $3 mil, $1.65 mil guaranteed)
Jack Doyle (4 year, $3.15 mil, $1.55 mil guaranteed)
Earl Okine (ERFA Tender, $525K, fully guaranteed)
Restructure Art Jones (+$2.493 to cap)
Extend Andrew Luck (6 year, $125 mil, $66 mil guaranteed).  This puts Luck 5th in terms of average/year behind Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning (all of whom have Super Bowl rings), and 1st in terms of guaranteed/year at $11 mil (2nd is Rodgers at $10.8 mil guaranteed/year)

Cap after re-signings, restructures, extensions: slightly over $29 mil

 

Free agents:
Lamar Miller (3 year, $11.5 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed).  It was almost criminal how Miami's coaching staff underutilized him.  Because he was so underutilized and doesn't have as much under his belt, we might be able to get him for cheaper.  We'd be offering him a feature role on a team with a very good young QB.  I'm a big fan of his and I would love to see him in Indy.

 

Janoris Jenkins (3 year, $15.5 mil, $9.5 mil guaranteed).  He's been St. Louis' best corner when healthy.  He fell in the draft due to character concerns, but I don't recall hearing much about him getting into trouble during his time in the NFL.  With Toler gone, I think he could be an excellent #2 corner.  We could have two lockdown guys with him and Vontae.

 

Eric Weddle (3 year, $38 mil, $25 mil guaranteed).  This is my free agent splurge.  He still has a lot left in the tank at age 31 and I wouldn't be fully confident in going into the season with a safety group consisting of a 35 year old Mike Adams, Lowery, and Geathers.  He could really solidify the secondary.

 

Ryan Wendell (2 year, $5 mil, $2.5 mil guaranteed).  He hasn't been healthy recently, which is why we might be able to get him for cheap.  I'm sure some may be screaming no at this because of what happened the last time we tried to sign a Pats' offensive lineman, but if he is healthy, he could be a solid starter and has versatility to play G or C.

 

Use about $8 mil for rookies.
18: R1P18
OLB JAYLON SMITH
NOTRE DAME
Absolute monster who would have been gone by pick 10 for sure were it not for a recent knee injury (note: this pick was made before the recent news that Smith has torn multiple knee ligaments)

48: R2P17
C NICK MARTIN
NOTRE DAME
With his older brother already in the NFL (and doing really well), the bloodline is good here.  Technically sound and could very well be a day 1 starter

82: R3P19
TE HUNTER HENRY
ARKANSAS
Big TE who causes matchup problems, but doesn't provide much in terms of blocking.  Essentially, a Fleener clone from what I've read, though it sounds like he plays a bit more physically.  Even if he isn't as complete as Allen, taking Henry might help offset not re-signing him.

113: R4P18
OLB DEION JONES
LSU
Very athletic, could develop into a good pass rusher

143: R5P16
RB KAREEM HUNT
TOLEDO
Would provide good depth behind Lamar Miller

207: R7P18
CB WAYNE LYONS
MICHIGAN
You can never have enough good DBs, especially with how our corners played last year.  He's got length and tenacity.

 

This would leave us with about $1-2 mil of cap space left for the 2016 season.

 

 

You didn't account for the major cap increase coming to the NFL this season, the cap is expected to be around 150 million, which leaves us with about 10 million more in spending.

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10 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

... 

He wasn't that great for us last year, in my opinion.  He had fumbling issues and his pass catching underwhelmed me.  He also seemed really frustrated at the end of the year, and his answer to an interview question ("I'm under contract, what can I do?") suggests he may want to leave.

Yes, he had a couple of key fumbles, which were kind of strange / fluky in nature.  He had some drops, but quite frankly a lot of those swing / screen pass drops were god awful throws.  As for his running, I thought he was by far the best we've had in years, more often than not with no holes.  I still think he is a BEAST and with a good offensive scheme / O-Line, he's the best we've had in a very long time.

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3 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

Yes, he had a couple of key fumbles, which were kind of strange / fluky in nature.  He had some drops, but quite frankly a lot of those swing / screen pass drops were god awful throws.  As for his running, I thought he was by far the best we've had in years, more often than not with no holes.  I still think he is a BEAST and with a good offensive scheme / O-Line, he's the best we've had in a very long time.

His fumble against the Jets cost us the game among other things but that was it right there.

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1 hour ago, 21isSuperman said:

...

 

Janoris Jenkins (3 year, $15.5 mil, $9.5 mil guaranteed).  He's been St. Louis' best corner when healthy.  He fell in the draft due to character concerns, but I don't recall hearing much about him getting into trouble during his time in the NFL.  With Toler gone, I think he could be an excellent #2 corner.  We could have two lockdown guys with him and Vontae.

 

I would be very much in favor of this move for Janoris Jenkins.  I think much more upside than Toler.

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53 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Paying Weddle nearly 13m a joke?

I believe his cap hit for 2015 was $10 mil, so I figured he would want around the same.  I gave a little more to make the Colts' offer more competitive.

 

38 minutes ago, Bluefire4 said:

Why does everyone want Eric Weddle. We don't need him.

I went after a splurge.  I wouldn't want to go into the season with Adams, Lowery, and Geathers.  He isn't a must-have, but I think he and Jenkins could make our secondary elite.

 

36 minutes ago, MTC said:

@21isSuperman

 

Assuming Sio Moore or Nate Irving is starting at ILB next to Freeman?

Yes, I'd have Moore penciled in as the starter next to freeman.

 

29 minutes ago, Dustin said:

That Weddle contract is ridiculous.

 

And Freeman would laugh at that contract offer.

What do you think those guys are worth?  My explanation for the Weddle contract is at the top of this post.  Freeman is good, but not great.  What do you think he's worth?

 

Also, can you please provide some clarification as to the Gore contract.  Would cutting him save us $4 mil or $1 mil?

 

27 minutes ago, Dustin said:

Just to reiterate, you'd be giving a 31 year old Weddle a contract that's almost $3M APY more than the highest paid safety in the NFL (Earl Thomas)

Explanation is above.  I expect Weddle to be in high demand, so I made a contract that would make the Colts' offer more attractive.

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I'll pass on Weddle. We need to stop signing old safeties and get young at the position. We had Landry who was past his prime, Adams who was good but is 35 now, and Lowery is close to 30.

 

We need a young guy to pair with Geathers for the future. We can't keep signing older players to fill holes. We need youth. Guys who are at the height of their athleticism and can fly around the field.

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4 minutes ago, MTC said:

 

Freeman did say he wanted to be a Colt. Was very emotional about it.

 

I think he would accept almost any contract offer.

 

Any competitive offer, yes.  But their careers are short, most of them only get one big contract (if any) so they're going to take it.

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I believe this is in the wrong section.

 

Also, I see Luck a little closer to $130/$70 guaranteed.

 

I second most people's comments on Weddle.

 

Jaylon Smith may not be a 1st round selection anymore.  Would be different if just an ACL, but it's also MCL.  Kendell Beckwith is my next favorite ILB prospect should he declare.

 

If you're going to keep Fleener at TE, you should think about drafting OJ Howard instead of Henry.  

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18 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

 

What do you think those guys are worth?  My explanation for the Weddle contract is at the top of this post.  Freeman is good, but not great.  What do you think he's worth?

 

Also, can you please provide some clarification as to the Gore contract.  Would cutting him save us $4 mil or $1 mil?

 

 

 

Weddle is probably a 3 year $20Mish guy.

 

Freeman will probably be looking for around $5.5M APY

 

As for Gore, I believe you only save $1M from cutting him. 

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There is no way that Fleener would re-sign for 3.3 Mil per year.  That's just ludichrist.

 

Look at Kyle Rudolph's stats in terms of receiving yards and understand that he's on contract for 7.3 Million per year.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14054/kyle-rudolph

 

Now look at Fleener's stats

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14900/coby-fleener

 

In fact look at the vet. TE's and what they are getting.

 

http://overthecap.com/position/tight-end

 

Realistic contract for Fleener is closer to 7 to 8 Mil per year.

 

Fleener is ridiculously underrated on this board.  He's a top 10 TE.  But he gets treated like he's barely above trash or average at best and it's sad.

 

And BTW even if he was average he'd still get at least 4 to 5 million.  

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6 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

There is no way that Fleener would re-sign for 3.3 Mil per year.  That's just ludichrist.

 

Look at Kyle Rudolph's stats in terms of receiving yards and understand that he's on contract for 7.3 Million per year.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14054/kyle-rudolph

 

Now look at Fleener's stats

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14900/coby-fleener

 

In fact look at the vet. TE's and what they are getting.

 

http://overthecap.com/position/tight-end

 

Realistic contract for Fleener is closer to 7 to 8 Mil per year.

 

It would be such a Grigson thing to do to give him that much money, so I envision it happening. 

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25 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

Any competitive offer, yes.  But their careers are short, most of them only get one big contract (if any) so they're going to take it.

 

Freeman's NFL career started late, so he's already 30 hitting free agency. Just had a pretty good year, and finished it on a high note. Like you say, this is his one chance to make some money. He'll get significant offers to leave in free agency, and if we offer him one year, $3m, he'll leave. He should, at least.

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29 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I'll pass on Weddle. We need to stop signing old safeties and get young at the position. We had Landry who was past his prime, Adams who was good but is 35 now, and Lowery is close to 30.

 

We need a young guy to pair with Geathers for the future. We can't keep signing older players to fill holes. We need youth. Guys who are at the height of their athleticism and can fly around the field.

At the proposed contract price I agree. 

 

I learned my lesson campaigning for the Colts to sign Jairus Byrd. :facepalm:

 

Too many of these generous deals, even to players like Weddle and Byrd who've racked up a couple ProBowls, seem to wind up being lifetime achievement awards.

 

I'd prefer we address it at a lower price....or through the draft.

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33 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

It would be such a Grigson thing to do to give him that much money, so I envision it happening. 

 

Like it or not that's Fleener's worth on the open market.  No one is going to worry about his dip in production this year because everyone knows what kind of QB's we where playing with.  

 

They are gonna look at the previous year when Fleener was 8th in receiving yards among TE's.  

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Just now, Valpo2004 said:

 

Like it or not that's Fleener's worth on the open market.  No one is going to worry about his dip in production this year because everyone knows what kind of QB's we where playing with.  

 

They are gonna look at the previous year when Fleener was 8th in receiving yards among TE's.  

 

Yeah, i hope some team out there pays him that.

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I;m actually good with going into the season with Adams and Geathers as our starting safeties. I think Geathers will be that enforcer SS every team needs. As long as we have a safety paired with him who can cover it'll be a fine duo IMO. And a lot of safeties get even better as they get older. The only thing I might do is draft a kid like Jayrone Kearse, Jeremy Cash or Darrian Thompson if he's there in the 2nd. We need to use our cap space in free agency for a pass rusher, CB, and the OL.

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1 hour ago, 21isSuperman said:

I believe his cap hit for 2015 was $10 mil, so I figured he would want around the same.  I gave a little more to make the Colts' offer more competitive.

 

I went after a splurge.  I wouldn't want to go into the season with Adams, Lowery, and Geathers.  He isn't a must-have, but I think he and Jenkins could make our secondary elite.

 

Yes, I'd have Moore penciled in as the starter next to freeman.

 

What do you think those guys are worth?  My explanation for the Weddle contract is at the top of this post.  Freeman is good, but not great.  What do you think he's worth?

 

Also, can you please provide some clarification as to the Gore contract.  Would cutting him save us $4 mil or $1 mil?

 

Explanation is above.  I expect Weddle to be in high demand, so I made a contract that would make the Colts' offer more attractive.

 

 If you would go to spotrac to check out players contracts, you would be better able to get this contract stuff figured out.
 Weddle made an average of $8M per on his last 5 year contract.
 Given to him when he was Much Younger. Think about it!

  His salary last season was for $7.5M.

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Weddle's 31 already, no more premium money for elderly players hoping to suddenly become good. I don't think he's even worth a roster spot at the veteran's minimum, especially considering that Safety is the least of our worries by far.

 

On the other hand...spend that money on Kelechi Osemele, Von Miller, etc...more than good.

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I like a lot of it.

 

I don't mind the Weddle signing, just not for that much.

 

I would keep Gore. Even with the issues he had this year he is the best back we have had in a long time and I feel he has another decent year in him. Pair him with someone decent that can give him a could 1-2 tandem and were golden.

 

I disagree with drafting another TE. Even if we lose Fleener or Allen, Doyle is a serviceable TE with every bit as much upside as an unproven rookie. 

 

Instead I would draft another O linemen. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about college ball to provide you with an alternate choice.

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