A Colts mock offseason 1.0

[Goatface Killah]

If we are gonna drop 10+ on anybody, it needs to be a great pass rusher or OL.

 

 

 

 

[OffensivelyPC]

1 minute ago, Dustin said:

 

LOL You've been on a roll lately. 

[ColtsFanMikeC]

3 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

With our season over, I figured I'd kill some time by trying to mock what I'd like to see done with the roster during the offseason.  A few things to note:

1. I expect a lot of this to change throughout the offseason, especially with the draft.  With pro days and the Combine, stocks can go all over the place.  As for free agents, many of them may sign with their current team, meaning they wouldn't even hit the market and thus wouldn't be available to sign.  This is all very preliminary.

2. By no means am I an expert on the cap.  For that reason, my contract numbers may be completely unrealistic.  In that case, feel free to analyze just the moves I'm making as opposed to the contracts I give out.

 

With that said, here is my first mock offseason.

 

Per OverTheCap, we currently have $18 286 940 in available cap space for 2016.

 

Cuts:
Andre Johnson (+$5 mil to cap)
Trent Cole (+$6.125 mil to cap)
D'Qwell Jackson (+$5.25 mil to cap)
Frank Gore (+$4 mil to cap)
Ryan Lindley (+$675K to cap)

Cap after cuts: slightly over $39 mil

I was initially going to cut Freeman, but I figured we could retain him as a cheap, capable backup.

 

Re-signings, restructures, extensions:
Adam Vinatieri (1 year, $1.5 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Dwight Lowery (2 year, $4 mil, $2.75 mil guaranteed, front loaded)
Colt Anderson (2 year, vet min = $1.645 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Coby Fleener (3 year, $10 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed)
Jerrell Freeman (1 year, $3 mil, $1.5 mil guaranteed)
Billy Winn (3 year, $3 mil, $1.65 mil guaranteed)
Jack Doyle (4 year, $3.15 mil, $1.55 mil guaranteed)
Earl Okine (ERFA Tender, $525K, fully guaranteed)
Restructure Art Jones (+$2.493 to cap)
Extend Andrew Luck (6 year, $125 mil, $66 mil guaranteed).  This puts Luck 5th in terms of average/year behind Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning (all of whom have Super Bowl rings), and 1st in terms of guaranteed/year at $11 mil (2nd is Rodgers at $10.8 mil guaranteed/year)

Cap after re-signings, restructures, extensions: slightly over $29 mil

 

Free agents:
Lamar Miller (3 year, $11.5 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed).  It was almost criminal how Miami's coaching staff underutilized him.  Because he was so underutilized and doesn't have as much under his belt, we might be able to get him for cheaper.  We'd be offering him a feature role on a team with a very good young QB.  I'm a big fan of his and I would love to see him in Indy.

 

Janoris Jenkins (3 year, $15.5 mil, $9.5 mil guaranteed).  He's been St. Louis' best corner when healthy.  He fell in the draft due to character concerns, but I don't recall hearing much about him getting into trouble during his time in the NFL.  With Toler gone, I think he could be an excellent #2 corner.  We could have two lockdown guys with him and Vontae.

 

Eric Weddle (3 year, $38 mil, $25 mil guaranteed).  This is my free agent splurge.  He still has a lot left in the tank at age 31 and I wouldn't be fully confident in going into the season with a safety group consisting of a 35 year old Mike Adams, Lowery, and Geathers.  He could really solidify the secondary.

 

Ryan Wendell (2 year, $5 mil, $2.5 mil guaranteed).  He hasn't been healthy recently, which is why we might be able to get him for cheap.  I'm sure some may be screaming no at this because of what happened the last time we tried to sign a Pats' offensive lineman, but if he is healthy, he could be a solid starter and has versatility to play G or C.

 

Use about $8 mil for rookies.
18: R1P18
OLB JAYLON SMITH
NOTRE DAME
Absolute monster who would have been gone by pick 10 for sure were it not for a recent knee injury (note: this pick was made before the recent news that Smith has torn multiple knee ligaments)

48: R2P17
C NICK MARTIN
NOTRE DAME
With his older brother already in the NFL (and doing really well), the bloodline is good here.  Technically sound and could very well be a day 1 starter

82: R3P19
TE HUNTER HENRY
ARKANSAS
Big TE who causes matchup problems, but doesn't provide much in terms of blocking.  Essentially, a Fleener clone from what I've read, though it sounds like he plays a bit more physically.  Even if he isn't as complete as Allen, taking Henry might help offset not re-signing him.

113: R4P18
OLB DEION JONES
LSU
Very athletic, could develop into a good pass rusher

143: R5P16
RB KAREEM HUNT
TOLEDO
Would provide good depth behind Lamar Miller

207: R7P18
CB WAYNE LYONS
MICHIGAN
You can never have enough good DBs, especially with how our corners played last year.  He's got length and tenacity.

 

This would leave us with about $1-2 mil of cap space left for the 2016 season.

 

I think we need to do much more than sign an injury prone vet and draft only 1 rookie to address our OL, to be honest.  I like that you're addressing 2 interior OL spots, but I also think we need to get a tackle.  I think we're OK with Castonzo and Mewhort at LT/LG.  We need to upgrade our depth at T and get a sure shot starter quality T (Reitz and Goode may be OK for back-ups, and Goode may eventually be a decent starter, but we need add a starter quality T and at least 1 very solid back up here).  

[21isSuperman]

1 hour ago, Pacergeek said:

Definitely not a fan of Lamar Miller. Seems like RB's these days are washed up after 3 years. Frank Gore is the exception. We need a young, fast RB that can make the big play

Lamar is only 24.  He still has a lot of good years left ahead of him.

 

45 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 If you would go to spotrac to check out players contracts, you would be better able to get this contract stuff figured out.
 Weddle made an average of $8M per on his last 5 year contract.
 Given to him when he was Much Younger. Think about it!

  His salary last season was for $7.5M.

I used OverTheCap, which has a similar calculator feature to Spotrac.  That's how I got Gore freeing up $4 mil if released.

 

9 minutes ago, Detectacon said:

I like a lot of it.

 

I don't mind the Weddle signing, just not for that much.

 

I would keep Gore. Even with the issues he had this year he is the best back we have had in a long time and I feel he has another decent year in him. Pair him with someone decent that can give him a could 1-2 tandem and were golden.

 

I disagree with drafting another TE. Even if we lose Fleener or Allen, Doyle is a serviceable TE with every bit as much upside as an unproven rookie. 

 

Instead I would draft another O linemen. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about college ball to provide you with an alternate choice.

I don't think Doyle gives us enough.  He's a hard worker and I really like his attitude, but he simply isn't the athlete I'd want as a starting TE.

3 minutes ago, ColtsFanMikeC said:

 

I think we need to do much more than sign an injury prone vet and draft only 1 rookie to address our OL, to be honest.  I like that you're addressing 2 interior OL spots, but I also think we need to get a tackle.  I think we're OK with Castonzo and Mewhort at LT/LG.  We need to upgrade our depth at T and get a sure shot starter quality T (Reitz and Goode may be OK for back-ups, and Goode may eventually be a decent starter, but we need add a starter quality T and at least 1 very solid back up here).  

I think Reitz is a solid RT.  That's why I just went after the C and RG.  Wendell would be a risky pick though due to his recent injury history.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

I used OverTheCap, which has a similar calculator feature to Spotrac.  That's how I got Gore freeing up $4 mil if released.

 

 

Sometimes they have differing info, and then you have to try to discern which is right. In this case, Spotrac, has more details than OTC, so I defer to Spotrac. Could be wrong, but I think that's the safe bet.

 

With D'Qwell's contract, OTC had more details, and they were likely right (wound up being a moot point, but they reported his Year 2 roster bonus as guaranteed, just like Spotrac is reporting Gore's Year 2 roster bonus as guaranteed). 

 

That's why I use both.

[21isSuperman]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Sometimes they have differing info, and then you have to try to discern which is right. In this case, Spotrac, has more details than OTC, so I defer to Spotrac. Could be wrong, but I think that's the safe bet.

 

With D'Qwell's contract, OTC had more details, and they were likely right (wound up being a moot point, but they reported his Year 2 roster bonus as guaranteed, just like Spotrac is reporting Gore's Year 2 roster bonus as guaranteed). 

 

That's why I use both.

Thanks for the info!  I'll check on both to confirm next time

[NewColtsFan]

7 hours ago, 21isSuperman said:

With our season over, I figured I'd kill some time by trying to mock what I'd like to see done with the roster during the offseason.  A few things to note:

1. I expect a lot of this to change throughout the offseason, especially with the draft.  With pro days and the Combine, stocks can go all over the place.  As for free agents, many of them may sign with their current team, meaning they wouldn't even hit the market and thus wouldn't be available to sign.  This is all very preliminary.

2. By no means am I an expert on the cap.  For that reason, my contract numbers may be completely unrealistic.  In that case, feel free to analyze just the moves I'm making as opposed to the contracts I give out.

 

With that said, here is my first mock offseason.

 

Per OverTheCap, we currently have $18 286 940 in available cap space for 2016.

 

Cuts:
Andre Johnson (+$5 mil to cap)
Trent Cole (+$6.125 mil to cap)
D'Qwell Jackson (+$5.25 mil to cap)
Frank Gore (+$4 mil to cap)
Ryan Lindley (+$675K to cap)

Cap after cuts: slightly over $39 mil

I was initially going to cut Freeman, but I figured we could retain him as a cheap, capable backup.

 

Re-signings, restructures, extensions:
Adam Vinatieri (1 year, $1.5 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Dwight Lowery (2 year, $4 mil, $2.75 mil guaranteed, front loaded)
Colt Anderson (2 year, vet min = $1.645 mil, $1 mil guaranteed)
Coby Fleener (3 year, $10 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed)
Jerrell Freeman (1 year, $3 mil, $1.5 mil guaranteed)
Billy Winn (3 year, $3 mil, $1.65 mil guaranteed)
Jack Doyle (4 year, $3.15 mil, $1.55 mil guaranteed)
Earl Okine (ERFA Tender, $525K, fully guaranteed)
Restructure Art Jones (+$2.493 to cap)
Extend Andrew Luck (6 year, $125 mil, $66 mil guaranteed).  This puts Luck 5th in terms of average/year behind Rodgers, Wilson, Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning (all of whom have Super Bowl rings), and 1st in terms of guaranteed/year at $11 mil (2nd is Rodgers at $10.8 mil guaranteed/year)

Cap after re-signings, restructures, extensions: slightly over $29 mil

 

Free agents:
Lamar Miller (3 year, $11.5 mil, $4.5 mil guaranteed).  It was almost criminal how Miami's coaching staff underutilized him.  Because he was so underutilized and doesn't have as much under his belt, we might be able to get him for cheaper.  We'd be offering him a feature role on a team with a very good young QB.  I'm a big fan of his and I would love to see him in Indy.

 

Janoris Jenkins (3 year, $15.5 mil, $9.5 mil guaranteed).  He's been St. Louis' best corner when healthy.  He fell in the draft due to character concerns, but I don't recall hearing much about him getting into trouble during his time in the NFL.  With Toler gone, I think he could be an excellent #2 corner.  We could have two lockdown guys with him and Vontae.

 

Eric Weddle (3 year, $38 mil, $25 mil guaranteed).  This is my free agent splurge.  He still has a lot left in the tank at age 31 and I wouldn't be fully confident in going into the season with a safety group consisting of a 35 year old Mike Adams, Lowery, and Geathers.  He could really solidify the secondary.

 

Ryan Wendell (2 year, $5 mil, $2.5 mil guaranteed).  He hasn't been healthy recently, which is why we might be able to get him for cheap.  I'm sure some may be screaming no at this because of what happened the last time we tried to sign a Pats' offensive lineman, but if he is healthy, he could be a solid starter and has versatility to play G or C.

 

Use about $8 mil for rookies.
18: R1P18
OLB JAYLON SMITH
NOTRE DAME
Absolute monster who would have been gone by pick 10 for sure were it not for a recent knee injury (note: this pick was made before the recent news that Smith has torn multiple knee ligaments)

48: R2P17
C NICK MARTIN
NOTRE DAME
With his older brother already in the NFL (and doing really well), the bloodline is good here.  Technically sound and could very well be a day 1 starter

82: R3P19
TE HUNTER HENRY
ARKANSAS
Big TE who causes matchup problems, but doesn't provide much in terms of blocking.  Essentially, a Fleener clone from what I've read, though it sounds like he plays a bit more physically.  Even if he isn't as complete as Allen, taking Henry might help offset not re-signing him.

113: R4P18
OLB DEION JONES
LSU
Very athletic, could develop into a good pass rusher

143: R5P16
RB KAREEM HUNT
TOLEDO
Would provide good depth behind Lamar Miller

207: R7P18
CB WAYNE LYONS
MICHIGAN
You can never have enough good DBs, especially with how our corners played last year.  He's got length and tenacity.

 

This would leave us with about $1-2 mil of cap space left for the 2016 season.

 

Several issues.....

 

First, teams want 5 to 10 percent of the total cap numbers,  which I think will be around 140 Mill in '16.    So, 7-10 mill left over.    1-2 Mill of cap space left likely won't happen.

 

Second,  you're grossly overpaying for Weddle.    There is likely zero chance that a team is going to pay him nearly 13 Mill per year.     I'll be shocked if he gets 10 Mill per.     My guess will be 3/25 with 10-12 guaranteed.

 

Third,   it's unclear where J. Smith goes.    The story I read today said in addition to two torn ligaments,  he may also have nerve damage.    If true,  he's going to fall -- perhaps badly.    It's more than just not being able to play in '16,  with nerve damage,  he might never be the same player.

 

Fourth,   Vinatieri will make more.    He's making more now, and there's no reason to ask him to take less.   Think he makes roughly $2.5m per.

 

Fifth,   no need to draft Lyons in the 7th.    He feels like a Free Agent to me.    Couldn't start for Stanford in his 5th year,  so he transferred to Michigan where he didn't start for them either.    That's the definition of a Free Agent.

 

These are the ones that jump off the page to me...   I have some disagreements with other decisions, but those are more nitpicking.

 

[rock8591]

4 hours ago, Dustin said:

 

 

Safety's the least of our problems. If it is, can be easily be patched by a 4-5th round pick. Signing Eric Weddle would only stunt the development of Clayton Geathers.

 

 

[SDakColts]

Lamar Miller comes from zone blocking scheme offense. How do you think he will translate to a power blocking scheme with the majority of runs going between the tackles?

[21isSuperman]

19 minutes ago, SDakColts said:

Lamar Miller comes from zone blocking scheme offense. How do you think he will translate to a power blocking scheme with the majority of runs going between the tackles?

I think he'd be fine.  At the end of the day, he needs to find the holes and run through them.  I think he has the vision and athletic ability to do so, regardless of what type of blocking scheme is in front of him.  It might take some adjusting to for him, but I'd expect all that to be dealt with through OTAs and training camp.

[21isSuperman]

1 hour ago, rock8591 said:

 

Safety's the least of our problems. If it is, can be easily be patched by a 4-5th round pick. Signing Eric Weddle would only stunt the development of Clayton Geathers.

 

 

That may be true, but to suggest that he isn't worth even vet min is ridiculous.  He's a really good safety and will get a pretty good contract, well above vet min

[Jdubu]

I am only keeping Fleener IF the new offensive coordinator puts in those down the seem passes where a lb'er has to cover him and he can use his speed. If we aren't going to use Fleener like a premiere type player, a TE that doesn't block superior just isn't worth spending 7-8 mil/yr on. We've under used Fleener and used him incorrectly IMHO. Seams and end zone. Use his speed and size. I agree though with some, Fleener goes down way to easy to get top TE money.