What is BPA?

[schwamm]

At this time of year, it seems like BPA is one of the most used, and maybe most incorrectly used, terms on this forum. I'm thinking it might be interesting to hear how posters interpret "best player available". Please share what you think goes into how the FO ranks players in the draft...

[Indyfan4life]

Colts FO:

"Hey, this guy is the 2nd best ranked ILB in the draft. ILB is a spot with a possible weakness or low depth. If he's available take him over player X, even if we don't fully need someone at that position".

 

The only way I wouldn't take a BPA per say would be a RB/TE/QB.

[PrincetonTiger]

BPA=

Best Player on your board or best player at a position of need

[schwamm]

BPA=

Best Player on your board or best player at a position of need

So what if the guy you think is next on your board is someone likely to be available later in the draft? Do you reach anyway, or wait to get them later?

[Dustin]

Best Player on the board. Minus TE and QB.

[Hans Moleman]

The way I envision it: Each player is assigned a numerical grade.

 

That grade is multiplied by a positional need multiplier - the higher the need of the position, the larger the number. The less we need it, the lower it is. So, for us, WR may carry a 1.3, and QB may be 0.6. Just arbitrary numbers in the example, but you get the point.

 

The adjusted result gives you players rated with need built in to the model, so you just draft the guy at the top of the board. 

 

That said, with some of these front offices and scouting departments, who can tell what logic gets applied?

[RealityIsLuck]

best player available 

[braveheartcolt]

I take it the Polians' got their decimal points a bit skewie those past 5 years when doing their weighting.....

 

One man's BPA is another man's reach. I'm hoping Grigs and Pags have a 'best trenches guys available' philosophy.....

[MTC]

Best player available that covers one of your needs. 

[TKnight24]

BPA that's NOT needed here:

QB, TE, LT

BPA for our needs:

OG, CB, DL, & RB (if Grigson pleases)

[ruksak]

+1 for an excellent question, Schwamm

 

BPA, to me, means Best Player Available excluding any position considered 'filled'..... i.e. We wouldn't take A QB this year because our QB is freakishly talented. If a QB was on the board and we clearly recognized him as the best player still on the board, due to our guy Luck, we would then default to the next BPA outside of the QB position. 

 

TE is another position I cannot fathom us picking no matter how talented the player. 

[Tark The Shark]

Best Player Available in the eyes of your specific team. Good GMs can use this to their advantage by trading up or trading back to get a certain player.

[Smonroe]

The way I envision it: Each player is assigned a numerical grade.

 

That grade is multiplied by a positional need multiplier - the higher the need of the position, the larger the number. The less we need it, the lower it is. So, for us, WR may carry a 1.3, and QB may be 0.6. Just arbitrary numbers in the example, but you get the point.

 

The adjusted result gives you players rated with need built in to the model, so you just draft the guy at the top of the board. 

 

That said, with some of these front offices and scouting departments, who can tell what logic gets applied?

 

Excellent.  I'm sure existing contracts also come into play in that equation.  For example, S may get a higher multiplier since AB's contract is up next year.

[PrincetonTiger]

So what if the guy you think is next on your board is someone likely to be available later in the draft? Do you reach anyway, or wait to get them later?

no

 

in that case you see if someone wants the pick

[In Luck We Trust]

Excellent.  I'm sure existing contracts also come into play in that equation.  For example, S may get a higher multiplier since AB's contract is up next year.

thats why i think we should draft Cyprien. would be a nice replacement for bethea. 

[MikeVander]

I think potential takes a higher percentage in assessing BPA in this year's draft that previous, considering the lack of need. 

 

Just adding that since contracts were mentioned as a valuation criterion, I think potential takes a large® chunk as well. 

[southwest1]

Best player available that covers one of your needs. 

Okay, this brings up another question I have. What's better? Draft according to need or best player available? And why do GMs typically say "stick to your draft board" & then say "we never thought athlete x to be there so we had to jump all over it & grab athlete x." Isn't that a slap in the face to your scouts & original draft board that you spent months preparing for? 

 

I will openly admit that I am no draft guru or wizard.  But, I am willing to shut up, listen, & learn. Public relations & locker room chemistry is where I usually shine. 

[SilentHill]

Best Player available from Stanford. Then after that Best Player Available from every other school.

[southwest1]

Daniel Synder, Jerry Jones, the former Al Davis strike me as big splash, best player available owners vs The Rooney family & the Mara family owners who swallow their pride & say this is where we are weak & need to address immediately.

 

The key is not to throw a ton of money at just a few marquee players like Ryan Grigson has mentioned on more than 1 occasion I guess. Deion Sanders paid dividents vs Albert Haynesworth that just committed Redskins robbery.

 

Like Steve Miller said "Take the money & run."

 

http://youtu.be/lVA1xRrWBuk

[Balzer40]

GM's have a board with each position and the top players at those positions. Then each position is prioritized from biggest need to least. When the pick comes up and you have lets just say, a high graded TE and RB available but they are positions of very little need, you pass over them and take the best guy available at the position of the highest need. If you think you can get him him 5-7 picks later then you try to trade out, but if you can't you pick him anyway and then lie to the media by saying he was the top guy on your board at the time, just like every single GM in the game does but you darn good and well it's not the truth.

[Dustin]

Daniel Synder, Jerry Jones, the former Al Davis strike me as big splash, best player available owners vs The Rooney family & the Mara family owners who swallow their pride & say this is where we are weak & need to address immediately.

 

The key is not to throw a ton of money at just a few marquee players like Ryan Grigson has mentioned on more than 1 occasion I guess. Deion Sanders paid dividents vs Albert Haynesworth that just committed Redskins robbery.

 

Like Steve Miller said "Take the money & run."

 

Al Davis was anything but a BPA drafter. He took DHB a full round before he should have went at #7.

[LockeDown]

Well, I'm probably the only one who thinks this, but here goes.

 

I don't think the definition of BPA should have the word "need" in it. After free agency, all of the media and fan boys said "We can now go BPA in the draft because Grigson took care of our needs in free agency".  That's why I think they assign a grade to the players and it's based on talent, smarts, interviews, etc...everything EXCEPT need.  That way you continue to stock your team with the best players and you never reach on a guy.  Drafting a player you need will always have a hint of reach unless you just get real lucky or you trade up so that you are in position to get the player you need and he is the best player available at that pick.

[pacolts56]

The way I envision it: Each player is assigned a numerical grade.

 

That grade is multiplied by a positional need multiplier - the higher the need of the position, the larger the number. The less we need it, the lower it is. So, for us, WR may carry a 1.3, and QB may be 0.6. Just arbitrary numbers in the example, but you get the point.

 

The adjusted result gives you players rated with need built in to the model, so you just draft the guy at the top of the board. 

 

That said, with some of these front offices and scouting departments, who can tell what logic gets applied?

Yes....such as the Raiders director of college scouting....

 

[NewColtsFan]

Al Davis was anything but a BPA drafter. He took DHB a full round before he should have went at #7.

 

No.    Davis' draft board looked a lot more different from other boards.   And, on his board, DHB was BPA.

 

In his mind,  he was right and everyone else was wrong.     He had so much success in the 60's, 70's and 80's that he couldn't understand why things weren't going right for his team in the 90's and 2000's....

 

Times changed and Davis didn't.

[schwamm]

GM's have a board with each position and the top players at those positions. Then each position is prioritized from biggest need to least. When the pick comes up and you have lets just say, a high graded TE and RB available but they are positions of very little need, you pass over them and take the best guy available at the position of the highest need. If you think you can get him him 5-7 picks later then you try to trade out, but if you can't you pick him anyway and then lie to the media by saying he was the top guy on your board at the time, just like every single GM in the game does but you darn good and well it's not the truth

I appreciate all the thoughts.  For whatever reason, I think this is a fascinating topic for conversation.   I am fairly certain that BPA is NOT just "Kiper (or whoever) has so-and-so rated as the next best player available".

 

I guess I see it as a more complicated concept, involving multiple layers and values (including many of the ones in the posts above).

 

For instance, I think it starts with a simple analysis of skills and talent, as several of you have indicated, presumably from a combination of scouting visits, game tape analysis, combine performance, etc. 

 

I imagine that review is then further qualified by the way a FO rates positions, based on their defensive and offensive systems (like Polian was generally inclined to devalue OLine and LBs against other positions, or the way Balzer keeps arguing that RBs should not be taken in the 1st).  Then sprinkle in a dash of need, both present as Hans and Ruksak suggested, and future as Smonroe suggests.  I would further add in things like character, fit, age, floor/ceiling, etc.

 

Now, once all those criteria have allowed the FO to sort out a working Big Board, I imagine there are occasional players listed well higher or lower than where the "experts" have them pegged.  So I would think FOs would want to do everything they can to determine how other teams are assembling their Big Boards, if only in theory.  If, for instance, Grigson had TY Hilton earmarked with a significantly higher grade than Kiper et. al. last year, he needed to decide how long he could afford to wait on pulling that trigger.  He might have had him pegged with a 2nd round grade, but recognized that TY could be had late in the late 3rd or early 4th (some even assumed later, and called the pick a reach), so he drafted another player in the 2nd and early third, and waited on his higher (for the purpose of my theory) graded guy (not saying this is what happened, but maybe...).

 

FWIW, as complicated as I've made it, I also imagine I am only scratching the surface. 

[NewColtsFan]

BPA=

Best Player on your board or best player at a position of need

 

I think the phrase Best player on you board....   and best player at a position of need are often in direct conflict.

[ruksak]

Yes....such as the Raiders director of college scouting....

 

Using Uncle Fester to make a point.........genius, sir, pure genius 

[ruksak]

Times changed and Davis didn't.

Not to be picky but....senility is a kind of change. 

[NewColtsFan]

Okay, this brings up another question I have. What's better? Draft according to need or best player available? And why do GMs typically say "stick to your draft board" & then say "we never thought athlete x to be there so we had to jump all over it & grab athlete x." Isn't that a slap in the face to your scouts & original draft board that you spent months preparing for? 

 

I will openly admit that I am no draft guru or wizard.  But, I am willing to shut up, listen, & learn. Public relations & locker room chemistry is where I usually shine. 

 

I don't think it's an insult to your scouts....   I think the GM is implying that it's an insult to the scouts of all the other teams who evaluated him incorrectly, which allowed the player to fall and your team to select him.

 

You projected him to go much higher....   and you're delighted to see that he's fallen to you.    No knock on your own scouts from where I sit....

 

Hope that clarifies....

[BOTT]

Daniel Synder, Jerry Jones, the former Al Davis strike me as big splash, best player available owners vs The Rooney family & the Mara family owners who swallow their pride & say this is where we are weak & need to address immediately.

 

The key is not to throw a ton of money at just a few marquee players like Ryan Grigson has mentioned on more than 1 occasion I guess. Deion Sanders paid dividents vs Albert Haynesworth that just committed Redskins robbery.

 

Like Steve Miller said "Take the money & run."

 

Jerry Reece has always claimed BPA....fans couldn't understand when he took JPP...now they do

[NewColtsFan]

GM's have a board with each position and the top players at those positions. Then each position is prioritized from biggest need to least. When the pick comes up and you have lets just say, a high graded TE and RB available but they are positions of very little need, you pass over them and take the best guy available at the position of the highest need. If you think you can get him him 5-7 picks later then you try to trade out, but if you can't you pick him anyway and then lie to the media by saying he was the top guy on your board at the time, just like every single GM in the game does but you darn good and well it's not the truth.

 

I'm not sure I'm reading you right....    so I'll toss out some thoughts, and maybe I'm duplicating what you're saying but in a different way??

 

Teams have a giant master board.    Every player with a draft-able grade is on it.   From 1 to however many players have a grade.   300?  350?  400?   I'm sure that number is different for every team.

 

Teams also have separate priority boards for every individual position.   Sometimes it just helps to keep things clarified from the giant jungle of the Big Board where there are so many names it's easy to lose sight of people you're interested in and perhaps targeting.

 

GM's often go back and forth between the two....

 

I'm not sure if that was what you were saying.....  but that's how a 'war room' is set up....    In the middle typically sits the owner, the GM,  the director of college scouting,  the head coach and the coordinators.     Outside of them, typically up against the walls sit all the scouts and the assistant coaches and any other personnel staffers.... 

 

NFL Network has a contest for a fan to announce a pick for their favorite team.    That's nice.    But the contest I'd love to win is to be able to sit in a War Room for 3 days.    I know....  it's never going to happen.     But that would be a dream for my Bucket List!!      Oh, to be a fly on that wall..!!

[dgambill]

To me best player available is more or less simply the player on the board that has the most potential to make an impact on your team. Geno Smith might be the best player talent wise on the board when we pick (for example) but he wouldn't make an impact on our team because we have Andrew. I look at the players on the board and say out of everyone on the board who could have the best nfl career if he played on our team. I might have a really solid OLB on my board that would certainly fit a need on our team....but if I have a future pro bowl wr or safety for example sitting there...I take that player every time. You have to look at your roster and determine the best way to build your team and upgrade it. It may mean drafting a position that doesn't seem like a position of need this year...but perhaps we loose Bethea next year in FA or Wayne retires or we may be interested in trading a player to open up a hole for the draft pick. It is a very deep and changing grading system. It is very complicated but we simply try to say BPA as in the player that will have an impact career and fill a need on our team (this year or at some point). We aren't going to probably draft a TE or QB or RT but even though we signed a safety or corner or defensive tackle doesn't mean we still may not take a player at that spot if a special talent is sitting there. We may have a plan...we may be anticipating FUTURE needs or we may say...this kid is going to be a stud....we may have a really solid starter but this guy would still be an upgrade and worth signing and making room for him.

 

I don't know...I just talked in circles I feel but really its about determining a draftee's future/skills and taking the one with the most upside that fits our team/needs. I see it more of grading guys like pb caliber, starter caliber, backup/situational starter, special teamer, camp body, and bust. Of course it is probably more complicated with a number system to differentiate those that fall in the same caliber but I would always draft a pb caliber position even if not at a position of need over a starter at a position we may think we need. 

 

To me...you can fill a position in several ways....draft should purely be about finding those "special caliber" players in early rounds, gem starters in middle rounds, and the special teamers or raw athletes later. Of course I've never been a GM...and with this post have pretty much assured myself to never be one too! lol

[southwest1]

Al Davis was anything but a BPA drafter. He took DHB a full round before he should have went at #7.

Actually, I don't think Al Davis listened to anyone except his NFL intuition. Why even hiring a scouting dept. to evaluate players? Al seemed to call all the shots anyway & he never abdicated authority to anyone else on his staff. Also, he always fired coaching regimes too quickly & Al never let any HC establish any continuity except John Madden He liked tall, athletic guys with speed who could stretch the field, especially WRs. He took pleasure in being a thorn in the Commissioners Office & for defying "conventional" GM/draft board wisdom.

Part of me admired the bleep every other organization approach, but just like Jerry Jones, Davis failed to realize that distance & trusting the staff you hired to win a SB is a good thing. How can any HC concentrate when Al is breathing down your neck 24/7 & won't leave you alone ever? How I can I do my job if you never leave me or my staff the Hades alone AL?

[NewColtsFan]

Jerry Reece has always claimed BPA....fans couldn't understand when he took JPP...now they do

 

Fans.....    I just love when they throw a hissy-fit over who their favorite team selects...

 

Often,  here's what I think it means....

 

"But I don't know anything about the guy we took!    And I know and like the guy I wanted them to take!!   Why didn't they take him?!?"

 

JPP is a perfect example.....

 

Not saying teams don't make mistakes....   clearly they do....   and Colts fans know Polian did as well....

 

But sometimes these guys really do know what they're doing....

[southwest1]

Jerry Reece has always claimed BPA....fans couldn't understand when he took JPP...now they do

I love Jerry Reese. A great GM that understands that Championships are built with the big, fat, agile linemen on both sides of the ball who use leverage to their favor on every single down. Except that even Jerry Reese knows 1 thing: Defense wins championships along with turnovers & if your pass rush sucks; your playoff run will be short & not so sweet. Multiple pass rushers with fresh legs in a good rotation similar to several pitchers in baseball gets you to the Playoffs & allows you to make a deep run every season.

My point is every GM knows the strength of their team & where it is buttered. Jerry isn't taking a WR if that squad is young & gifted athletically, but he's always got 1 more roster spot for a "QB killer" pass rusher because that's how the NY Giants are built period.

[southwest1]

Often,  here's what I think it means....

 

"But I don't know anything about the guy we took!    And I know and like the guy I wanted them to take!!   Why didn't they take him?!?"

 

JPP is a perfect example.....

 

 

But sometimes these guys really know what they're doing...

Well said NCF & very accurate more often than not about draft picks chosen in April! 

[NewColtsFan]

Not to knock fans (hey, I'm one too!)....

 

But a fan sees what a young player is.....

 

A GM, a scout tries to see what a player can be....

 

That's a world of difference....    and it's also often what leads to draft mistakes.   The evaluation is wrong and the player doesn't become what they thought.   Hey,  stuff happens....

[John Dee]

BPA is what is implies....      The best player on your board regardless of position.   

 

Polian was always a BPA type of GM and if you listened to any of his post draft interviews the draft ALWAYS went nearly exactly how "he" felt it would ..        right  ;)

 

IMO Polian was always a GM that simply wanted to prove how "bright" he was and almost always went against popular opinion.   Nearly all his first round picks were controversial.     And nearly all his third round picks totally flopped.     \

 

BUT, he was spectacular in the late rounds and in bringing in UDFA's.

 

IF I ran a team I would always keep need in mind.         When Bill drafted Gonzo and Brown everyone was like wth?   OL at that point in time was GLARING NEED and Bill refused to address it.    Manning and Ugoh were actually 2 of his more need specific first overall picks.    One worked...  and one....     sigh.

 

I think we will see Indy hit these areas come draft weekend...    OLB, DL, OL, WR   In Indy's case BPA should not apply at all to the other positions.      Indy's roster is simply not deep enough in the areas of NEED to afford that luxury. 

Okay, this brings up another question I have. What's better? Draft according to need or best player available? And why do GMs typically say "stick to your draft board" & then say "we never thought athlete x to be there so we had to jump all over it & grab athlete x." Isn't that a slap in the face to your scouts & original draft board that you spent months preparing for? 

 

I will openly admit that I am no draft guru or wizard.  But, I am willing to shut up, listen, & learn. Public relations & locker room chemistry is where I usually shine. 

[chad72]

BPA means Bill Polian Axiom/Algorithm, haven't you figured it out by now?

[bahhummbug]

So what if the guy you think is next on your board is someone likely to be available later in the draft? Do you reach anyway, or wait to get them later?

He might not be the BPA during the round for the position your looking for.If your saying reach for someone because hes on top of 1 understand 1 of your boards.Each position will have its own individual BPA.So you wouldnt reach if someone higher on one of your other boards at a position you need filled was available.And I am sure each is graded by a points scale to decide which of the needs you fill at the time of your pick.If you have multiple needs your not going to reach just take the BPA for the position you need filled.And with multiples you go by the highest points awarded to each person on your multiple boards.