NFL.com win total projection by Cynthia Frelund

[Solid84]

Cynthia Frelund posted her win total projections for the AFC and NFC on NFL.com

 

Win Total Projections

 

Colts are dead last in the AFC with 5.3 wins - Ceiling 7.9, Floor 4.7.

 

League wide only the Cardinals have a lower win projection at 3.9. The Rams have a lower floor of 4.5.

[DoubleE Colt]

I mean.......she could be right with the floor tbh........but could be well off with the ceiling! I think the Colts will be a proper boom or bust team this year being so young and with AR under centre......if he catches on fast we could hit that ceiling! 

[Myles]

I predict 4-6 wins which puts me close to her predictions.

[Solid84]

2 minutes ago, Myles said:

I predict 4-6 wins which puts me close to her predictions.

I'm thinking 5-6 wins. It could be more, but there are so many unknowns this year.

 

Ideally we go on a hot streak near the end of the season. Not that I'm expecting playoffs, but more that things are clicking for AR. And the Oline earn their pay. And our WRs make catches. And our CBs earn their stripes. And....

[Indyfan4life]

I want to win every game, but I also know this will *probably* be a rough - but fun season. If we somehow draft in the top 3, I can’t imagine us NOT getting Harrison Jr. 

 

So for me, I’m torn. 

[NewColtsFan]

FWIW: 
 

Vegas has the Colts win projection at….6.5 

[cdgacoltsfan]

There are going to be a lot of forum posters inured this year jumping on and off the bandwagon 

[Dingus McGirt]

Guys on NFL Network Radio just said they don’t see more than two wins for Indy this season.

[cdgacoltsfan]

8 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Guys on NFL Network Radio just said they don’t see more than two wins for Indy this season.

Oh..the doom and gloom. I doubt we score an offensive TD this year. 

[bluebombers87]

I trust Vegas more. 

[IinD]

23 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Guys on NFL Network Radio just said they don’t see more than two wins for Indy this season.

Lol... Wow...I can totally buy into we're young and all that but 2?? 

[bluebombers87]

Just now, IinD said:

Lol... Wow...I can totally buy into we're young and all that but 2?? 

Eh, hot takes sound better. I think 5-7 wins sounds reasonable.

[Dunk]

I will be happy if I can watch games without thinking " How are we going to lose this one"?

Kinda how I felt last year, no matter what the score was in the 4th quarter

[CoachLite]

There are so many unknowns, I don't see how anyone can make a reasonable prediction at this point. It is only a wild guess, and not even a SWAG at that! That said, I'd guess our wins between 3 and 9 (+/- one sigma).

[Happy2BeHere]

16-0-1 baby!  

[smittywerb]

That’s fair.  My personal floor is 4 and ceiling is 7. Depending on injuries I’d bet the floor.

[esmort]

42 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

There are so many unknowns, I don't see how anyone can make a reasonable prediction at this point. It is only a wild guess, and not even a SWAG at that! That said, I'd guess our wins between 3 and 9 (+/- one sigma).

 

I would lose (or make) a ridiculous amount of money if I seen somewhere giving an over under around 9.

[NFLfan]

I wish I could have a season like this one -- one in which the goal is to build for the future. Winning is gravy. Losing allows the team to draft higher, possibly draft a top player like Marvin Harrison, Jr.

 

Enjoy the ride. It should be fun, regardless of the record.

[GoColts8818]

There would be worse things this year than having one of the worst two records in football and be in position to draft Marvin jr.  Unlike last year the Colts should be fun bad too where at least they are watchable.

[Pelt]

I'm wondering exactly how that would go down with MHJr.

 

All the stars could align and he would fall right into our laps in the draft - and then Ballard wants to take someone else, or trade down. 

 

And then Jim overrules him right there in the draft room and tells him to take MHJr...

[SwedishColt]

I like the fact that we are underdogs this season. I really feel like we have nothing to lose but a lot to gain. 

If we end up with a bad record and it gives us another chance at a high draft pick, great! 

If AR somehow develops faster than expected and the rest of the team goes in the same direction, amazing!

 

I much prefer this to last season when we were supposed to be a SB dark horse but ending up falling flat. 

 

Hopefully everyone in and around the organization can stay patient though. That will be the key to our season I think,

 

Realistically I see us getting 4-7 wins but who knows?

[rockywoj]

On Sirius XM Moving the Chains, both Pat Kirwin and Jim Miller picked the Colts for last in the division, with Jim Miller adding he has trouble seeing the Colts winning more than 2 games. 
 

I honestly have trouble seeing the Colts losing more games than last years dreadful season and I am fingers crossed hopeful that AR greatly exceeds expectations for this season. 
 

Go Colts!

[colts89]

I think 5-7 wins this year is realistic. Rookie QB + inexperienced young CBs is going to be a huge factor, especially early on in the season while they get a feel for the NFL game.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

26 minutes ago, SwedishColt said:

I like the fact that we are underdogs this season. I really feel like we have nothing to lose but a lot to gain. 

If we end up with a bad record and it gives us another chance at a high draft pick, great! 

If AR somehow develops faster than expected and the rest of the team goes in the same direction, amazing!

 

I much prefer this to last season when we were supposed to be a SB dark horse but ending up falling flat. 

 

Hopefully everyone in and around the organization can stay patient though. That will be the key to our season I think,

 

Realistically I see us getting 4-7 wins but who knows?

 

You would have really enjoyed the 80's & '90's. Lol

[SwedishColt]

3 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

You would have really enjoyed the 80's & '90's. Lol

 

Dont get me wrong, it would be awesome to be a proper SB contender too but hopefully we are on a path that will get us there sooner rather than later. 

Irsay did "promise" us 2 Super Bowls in the next 10 years last season ;)

[RollerColt]

It would be cool if the Colts are similar to the Cincinnati Reds. Lots of youth but enough talent to make each game interesting. 

[Hoose]

I expect the Colts to be entertaining but not a serious threat to anyone until late in the season. AR will struggle early. That’s inevitable. But he’s a talent and a student of the game and he’ll start to figure it out by Season’s end. Until then, just enjoy watching the young guys get better. They will. They have a new coach too…. that fact alone is a reason for optimism. This team is a marathon, not a sprint. But next year will be better, and after that, I have very high hopes. 

[mirobi48]

Bulletin board material

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 minute ago, SwedishColt said:

 

Dont get me wrong, it would be awesome to be a proper SB contender too but hopefully we are on a path that will get us there sooner rather than later. 

Irsay did "promise" us 2 Super Bowls in the next 10 years last season ;)

 

I wouldn't take what Irsay says to the bank lol. 

This organization has lost plenty prior to Manning arriving and since Luck retired. Getting used to and wanting to lose  for better draft picks on a regular basis will put the colts in the same category as the Brownies, Cards, Lions, Jets, etc...... Though tanking or just plain losing is beneficial sometimes, you don't want to make a habit of it. Losing last year gave us a shot a very special much needed QB. Like you said losing this year will get us another top pick, which should help.  But this franchise needs to step it up sooner than later for its fans who shouldn't get used to losing regularly....... Again. 

 

I'm hoping for contending in a weak division this year But the lack of talent on offensive skill players and a still questionable OL without proven depth has me questioning my optimism. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

She projected the Colts at 10.3 wins last year. How'd that work out?

[gspdx]

1 hour ago, Pelt said:

I'm wondering exactly how that would go down with MHJr.

 

All the stars could align and he would fall right into our laps in the draft - and then Ballard wants to take someone else, or trade down. 

 

And then Jim overrules him right there in the draft room and tells him to take MHJr...

Maybe CB would want the best guard in the draft to handle the right side...

[lester]

2 hours ago, Hoose said:

I expect the Colts to be entertaining but not a serious threat to anyone until late in the season. AR will struggle early. That’s inevitable. But he’s a talent and a student of the game and he’ll start to figure it out by Season’s end. Until then, just enjoy watching the young guys get better. They will. They have a new coach too…. that fact alone is a reason for optimism. This team is a marathon, not a sprint. But next year will be better, and after that, I have very high hopes. 

This post has all the reasons that everyone’s predications are worthless. No one has any idea what this colts team is going to do. Tons of reasons to illustrate why they’ll be horrible; but also lots of unknowns with upside that could lead to wins. 
 

it’s not about talent or experience, it’s about matchups, week-over-week. And; which Oline shows up? How does the new coach game plan? Do our third year pass rushers put it all together this year? Does Shaq Leonard create a dozen forced fumbles like in times of old? Does Alec Pierce catch those sure touchdowns? How many games that would otherwise be a loss get saved by our new (expensive) kicker? Yadda yadda yadda. 
 

No one knows anything. Just enjoy the ride. LOL

[Moosejawcolt]

Honest question. Does  Ballard survive if this team is picking in the top 5 again? I don't think so. If Richardson becomes one of the few bright spots, how can he? 

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honest question. Does  Ballard survive if this team is picking in the top 5 again? I don't think so. If Richardson becomes one of the few bright spots, how can he? 

Huh?    If Richardson is a bright spot, how can Ballard survive?   Is that what you meant to say?   
 

Because if Richardson is a bright spot, then Ballard should easily survive.  Ballard picked him when most everyone else said picking AR at 4 was way WAY too risky.
 

I think the Colts are doing a semi-tank job this year as I believe they did in 2017.   Irsay is on board with this.   So picking top-5 is likely already baked in.   It’s anticipated. 
 

If Richardson is a complete disaster and the team looks badly coached, THEN Ballard would likely not survive.   But that’s a long way away.  

[csmopar]

5 hours ago, IinD said:

Lol... Wow...I can totally buy into we're young and all that but 2?? 

To be fair, I’m envisioning something closer to that of Peyton mannings rookie season vs that of say Andrew lucks rookie season. Somewhere in the 2-4 win category 

[csmopar]

20 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honest question. Does  Ballard survive if this team is picking in the top 5 again? I don't think so. If Richardson becomes one of the few bright spots, how can he? 

I think Ballard is safe this year. To blow it up with a GM swap after a rookie QB year would be the dumbest thing Jim Irsay has ever done and I don’t think he will. A new GM likely means all new staff, coaches, players etc. he’s not gonna do that after ARs rookie year. Now if the entire team looks like garbage at the end of the 24 season, okay we can have this talk. But no way is Irsay firing anyone this year. Short of some serious off the field related allegations of course

[throwing BBZ]

 

  Will AR be 6-17 or 12-20? 

 Anyway I can see it today we are going to have a hard time outscoring our opponents. How many games will we score 23+ points?

 Will we be incredible getting 1st downs when we get it to 3rd and 2?

Kelly and Fries are not Kelce and Seamulo. 

 Play a game then place your bets.

  

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

I think Ballard is safe this year. To blow it up with a GM swap after a rookie QB year would be the dumbest thing Jim Irsay has ever done and I don’t think he will. A new GM likely means all new staff, coaches, players etc. he’s not gonna do that after ARs rookie year. Now if the entire team looks like garbage at the end of the 24 season, okay we can have this talk. But no way is Irsay firing anyone this year. Short of some serious off the field related allegations of course

Here's what I could see happening. Let's say Richardson looks like the franchise, but many of Ballards recent picks do not take shape. I  could see a scenario in which Steichen has gained Irsay's trust, and Steichen picks his own GM. It works in KC, New England, Seattle, and San Fran.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Huh?    If Richardson is a bright spot, how can Ballard survive?   Is that what you meant to say?   
 

Because if Richardson is a bright spot, then Ballard should easily survive.  Ballard picked him when most everyone else said picking AR at 4 was way WAY too risky.
 

I think the Colts are doing a semi-tank job this year as I believe they did in 2017.   Irsay is on board with this.   So picking top-5 is likely already baked in.   It’s anticipated. 
 

If Richardson is a complete disaster and the team looks badly coached, THEN Ballard would likely not survive.   But that’s a long way away.  

I don't think Ballard would get a lot of credit if Richardson succeeds. From all the info coming out, it was Brown, I believe that was his  name, and Steichen who felt that Richardson  could   was legit. I was listening to  a Colts  podcast and love him or hate him, Venturi felt this was a meh roster.  I said about a week ago that this roster reminded me of a expansion team roster. Yes, I was being dramatic, but  I am hoping that guys like Pierce, Granson, Raimann, Ogletree, Paye and Adengbo(spelling) become those guys.  It is funny but I just think of the Chiefs and the superstar elite players that they have drafted; Mahonnes,Hill, Kelce, Jones. Those 4 players are arguably the best at their positions. I am craving for an elite postion player to develop under Ballard's leadership.

[NewColtsFan]

13 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I don't think Ballard would get a lot of credit if Richardson succeeds. From all the info coming out, it was Brown, I believe that was his  name, and Steichen who felt that Richardson  could   was legit. I was listening to  a Colts  podcast and love him or hate him, Venturi felt this was a meh roster.  I said about a week ago that this roster reminded me of a expansion team roster. Yes, I was being dramatic, but  I am hoping that guys like Pierce, Granson, Raimann, Ogletree, Paye and Adengbo(spelling) become those guys.  It is funny but I just think of the Chiefs and the superstar elite players that they have drafted; Mahonnes,Hill, Kelce, Jones. Those 4 players are arguably the best at their positions. I am craving for an elite postion player to develop under Ballard's leadership.

Wowza… 

 

The person who decided to draft Anthony Richardson us the same person who decided not to trade up to get him.   His name is Chris Ballard.   The ultimate decision to draft him was not — NOT — made by Brown.   He’s further down the chain of command.   Ed Dodds is the assistant GM.   Brown followed AR throughout the 22 season and thru the draft process at the direction of….  Chris Ballard.   If Richardson is a hit,  Ballard will get 1000 percent credit.   As he should.  CB picked AR and the right coach to groom him.  
 

As for what Venturi thinks?   I couldn't care less.   He literally does not move the needle for me.   His opinion of the roster is worthless to me.  

 

Oh, and FWIW,  the six guys you hope will come on this year and be good players are all Ballard picks and most get routinely trashed by this community.   I expect all of them to be important players for the Colts this year.   Only injuries would stop them.