Colts select WR Josh Downs

[DougDew]

27 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Maybe the next TY?

TY had great straight line speed and little wiggle, which is why he was almost strictly an over the top threat and average at about everything else..  Downs has wiggle but not the great long speed.  TY and Downs are both small, but they play two different positions/roles, IMO.

[krunk]

I think Downs is a more suped up version of what Richardson had at Florida in Pearsall.   I take that back because Pearsall is a lot bigger guy.  Downs kind of runs like him to me in some ways though. 

[stitches]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

TY had great straight line speed and little wiggle, which is why he was almost strictly an over the top threat and average at about everything else..  Downs has wiggle but not the great long speed.  TY and Downs are both small, but they play two different positions/roles, IMO.

Agreed... TY was over the top WR, Downs is more of an underneath receiver(weird to say but ... he's kind of similar to McKenzie - we got 2 small receivers and neither of them is really a long ball type of target), but he can go deeep occasionally too. Downs seems incredibly strong at the catch point, especially for his size. He's very crafty with his footwork... and he has very good strong hands... 

[Stephen]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

TY had great straight line speed and little wiggle, which is why he was almost strictly an over the top threat and average at about everything else..  Downs has wiggle but not the great long speed.  TY and Downs are both small, but they play two different positions/roles, IMO.

T.y. had wiggle as well especially in his college tape. Downs is fast enough to get open deep as well. T.y has faster top end

[colts89]

His route running seems to be elite elite. Pair that with his 4.4 speed then no wonder Wayne likes him lol.

[CR91]

1 hour ago, colts89 said:

His route running seems to be elite elite. Pair that with his 4.4 speed then no wonder Wayne likes him lol.

 

I think he would have went sooner if he ran a 4.3 because he ran closer to 4.5 

[ColtsLegacy]

Watching Downs college highlights remind me of when I first watched TY's highlights after he was drafted. 

 

Unbelievable highlight films.

 

None of our WRs since TY have given me that feeling (and I love MPJ and AP).

[Hawkeyecolt]

On 4/29/2023 at 8:33 AM, chad72 said:

Reggie did glow about Alec Pierce too, let’s see, time will tell. Downs does have great feel for open spaces and has exceptional body control and hands.

 

I do wonder if Ballard’s first under 6-foot WR draft pick is a philosophical change from Reich, and dictated more by Steichen. Note that Reich traded away D J Moore, and signed Adam Thielen and drafted Jonathan Mingo, both tall WRs.

Ballard was part of drafting T.Hill for KC. I definitely think moving to a more vertical offense makes a difference. 

[stitches]

I will be posting some Greg Cosell scouting reports on our draft picks. Here's the one for Josh Downs:

https://www.the33rdteam.com/nfl-draft/2023/players/josh-downs-50984/scouting-reports/

 

 

JOSH DOWNS

WR | NORTH CAROLINA

Jr.#11

 

 

Background:

Downs came out of Georgia as a 4-star recruit and became a starter in his sophomore season at North Carolina, catching 101 passes for 1,335 yards and 8 TDs. Downs finished his college career with an outstanding 2022 season: 94-1,029-10.9-11 TD.

Downs was almost exclusively a slot receiver in 2021, with 94 of his 101 receptions coming inside. He was featured on tunnel screens to take advantage of his run-after-catch ability in addition to quick in-breaking and quick out routes to get the ball in his hands on the move. Downs also saw snaps offset in the backfield (36 yards on H seam versus Duke, 21 yards on an angle route versus South Carolina). A high percentage of the time, Downs lined up to the field where there was a lot of space, so he was almost never pressed and had free access into his routes. He featured on deep over routes from the inside slot to trips (big plays versus Virginia).

In 2022, 76 of Downs’ 94 receptions came from the slot (76-848-11.2-11 TD). There were also snaps in which Downs lined up at boundary x on the back side of trips, and snaps in which he lined up offset in the backfield - a 38-yard catch versus Duke came on stutter-go double move from the No. 1 boundary alignment, in which Downs showed outstanding body control and hands making a tough contested catch. A 19-yard TD versus Virginia is a good example of Downs’ stop-and-start quickness and burst.
 

Positives:

• Almost exclusively lined up in the slot to the field with snaps in the backfield; Formation versatility and motion.
• Sudden and twitchy with stop-and-start and instant acceleration; Played fast and explosive at all three levels.
• Natural quickness both as route runner and run-after-catch; Excellent play speed to run away from the defense.
• Outstanding on pivot and whip routes with his stop-and-start quickness and his instant burst out of breaks.
• Explosive into routes with free access; At his best when he could accelerate off the LOS with no disruption.
• Showed a natural sense of pace and tempo of different routes and a feel for finding the voids in zone coverage.
• Made a lot of catches in open space where he could maximize his run-after-catch traits; Shifty and explosive.
• Showed ability to attack the ball in the air and make tough contested catches; At times, played bigger than size.

 

Negatives:

• Did not have releases off the LOS disrupted resulting in free access; Played in space with no physical disruption.
• 2021 video showed no physical element to his game; Does that make his transition scheme and concept specific?
• Did not see much run-after-catch in his 2022 video; That needs to be a foundation of his game at the next level.
• Some concentration drops showed up on video, but my sense is hands and catching ability not an overall issue.

 

Bottom Line:

Downs’ 2021 video showed an explosive, twitchy slot receiver with dynamic route quickness and sudden shifty accelerating run-after-catch that can result in big plays on short throws. Downs is at his best as a space receiver when he had free access of the LOS, and when he caught the ball on the move with room to run-after-catch. Those traits make him formation-specific in an NFL offense.

Downs is an instant accelerator who can go from 0-60 in a heartbeat, in addition to being shifty and elusive in the open field and having the ability to turn short throws into explosive plays consistently showed up on his 2021 video. He did not look as sudden and explosive on his 2022 video, and that raised questions in my mind as to what his transition will be at the next level given his lack of height and small frame. What consistently stood out in his 2022 video was an inability to elude and shake defenders in space, which was a defining trait in his 2021 video. Players do not lose their traits from one season to the next, but the more important question is how can Downs best be deployed at the next level?

He played almost exclusively out of the slot in both 2021 and 2022 (multiple splits and locations), and that would be the easy projection to the NFL, but with the more expansive use of formations and motions, Downs can be featured in different locations within the formation (including offset in the backfield) and be deployed as a moveable chess piece with free access. Think of how Andy Reid used Kadarius Toney late in the 2022 season, and I believe Downs could be used in similar ways.

Overall, Downs does not possess the size you are looking for, but his traits and skill set fit today’s NFL passing game, and he will be a factor primarily inside but also as a movement-motion receiver who can line up throughout the formation.

[Dobbinblitz]

Colts Area Scout Chad Henry on Downs:

 

"I mean, he’s kind of a human chain mover. Like, good luck covering him in a short area. I come up with nicknames for guys, and I call him “Hiccup” because he’s as quick as a hiccup, and your only solution to get rid of him is to drink some water, sit on the bench and hope he goes away.

When (wide receivers coach Reggie Wayne) steps on the table for a guy, it only makes it that much better. Josh did do a great job at the combine, which wasn’t a surprise. I knew that was gonna happen. He’s a dynamic athlete who really knows how to play football." 

[MikeCurtis]

Love this pick.  

[Indyfan4life]

I really think having a true quick slot receiver will open things up for Pierce and Pittman a little more.

[Shive]

On 4/30/2023 at 11:10 AM, DougDew said:

TY had great straight line speed and little wiggle, which is why he was almost strictly an over the top threat and average at about everything else..  Downs has wiggle but not the great long speed.  TY and Downs are both small, but they play two different positions/roles, IMO.

The thing with Downs is that his top end speed isn't "take the top off" fast, but his ability to regulate and throttle his speed so quickly will get him open deep more often than his 40 time would have you think. He's really good at running a route with ordinary pace, then immediately shifts into another gear past the CB.

 

I think that's where a lot of the insane speed guys fail at the NFL level. They've always been able to just fly past people, but in the NFL, running a route at 100 mph every time becomes predictable and easy to defend over the top.

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Just now, Shive said:

The thing with Downs is that his top end speed isn't "take the top off" fast, but his ability to regulate and throttle his speed so quickly will get him open deep more often than his 40 time would have you think. He's really good at running a route with ordinary pace, then immediately shifts into another gear past the CB.

 

I think that's where a lot of the insane speed guys fail at the NFL level. They've always been able to just fly past people, but in the NFL, running a route at 100 mph every time become predictable and easy to defend over the top.

Awesome post! One like is not enough! 

[Myles]

I'll be honest, I don't have high expectations for this pick but I hope he ends up being great.

[NorthernColt]

15 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'll be honest, I don't have high expectations for this pick but I hope he ends up being great.

Why not? Not hating, just curious. 

 

Depends on your expectations. If you're expecting him to lead the league in yards, you're probably gunna be disappointed.

 

I've been screaming we need a short yardage chain moving slot like Renfroe for years. Its literally so helpful for an offense. We now have 2 6'4/6'3 jump ball WRs on the outside with Pitt and Peirce. Downs is a perfect compliment.

[Myles]

20 minutes ago, NorthernColt said:

Why not? Not hating, just curious. 

 

 

Mostly because I had never heard of him before the pick was made.   That and him being past up with 78 other picks.  

I hope he is, and think he could be great, 

[Nickster]

On 4/29/2023 at 8:52 AM, shasta519 said:

NE traded a R2 pick to get Welker. 
 

With how the WR position has evolved, all WR positions have become more valuable and coveted. Rising tide lifts all boats and all that.
 

And teams now need to have at least 3 good WRs for each spot in their base 11 personnel packages. 
 

So naturally, even slot WRs are getting drafted earlier. Plus, I think Downs can some nice things in motion. 
 

Diversifying the skill set of the current WR group was a must. 

Rules changes too favors the smaller guys in the middle of the field. 

It was actually legal in the league when Welker and Edelmen were coming into it for the DBS and LBs to actually try and KILL the pass catcher after the ball hit his hands.  YOU JUST GOT. . . JACKED UP !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DougDew]

4 hours ago, Shive said:

The thing with Downs is that his top end speed isn't "take the top off" fast, but his ability to regulate and throttle his speed so quickly will get him open deep more often than his 40 time would have you think. He's really good at running a route with ordinary pace, then immediately shifts into another gear past the CB.

 

I think that's where a lot of the insane speed guys fail at the NFL level. They've always been able to just fly past people, but in the NFL, running a route at 100 mph every time becomes predictable and easy to defend over the top.

Agree.  A better way for me to make my point, on a long run he could get caught from behind.  That's the difference between him and TY, IMO.

[Boondoggle]

This is the guy.  Very happy with this pick.  Last season it was real easy to eliminate options for the defenses playing us.  This season is going to be far different.  They'll feel Downs instantly in the slot and we have Pierce going into year two.

 

Should see an uptick in pass game potency for sure.  Weapons are there now.

[krunk]

Not going to lie, Downs is a talent. I like him!

[Solid84]

I like Downs a lot - he'll be great for us.

 

On a side note, I don't think we would've drafted him if Wayne and one of our Scouts hadn't pounded the table for him. He had a great RAS of 8.99, but he's only 5'9" 171lbs. That's not Ballard's profile for a WR.

[DiogoSales]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I like Downs a lot - he'll be great for us.

 

On a side note, I don't think we would've drafted him if Wayne and one of our Scouts hadn't pounded the table for him. He had a great RAS of 8.99, but he's only 5'9" 171lbs. That's not Ballard's profile for a WR.

Thats why keep Wayne is already a good decision by Shane

[throwing BBZ]

On 5/1/2023 at 1:49 PM, NorthernColt said:

Why not? Not hating, just curious. 

 

Depends on your expectations. If you're expecting him to lead the league in yards, you're probably gunna be disappointed.

 

I've been screaming we need a short yardage chain moving slot like Renfroe for years. Its literally so helpful for an offense. We now have 2 6'4/6'3 jump ball WRs on the outside with Pitt and Peirce. Downs is a perfect compliment.

 

 Miles soon says because HE never heard of him as if Myles knows anything. Therefore he Should have NO opinion.

Just Goofy!

 Richardson has short range touch and accuracy issues.

So Downs is the superb choice to work with him on it.

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:33 AM, chad72 said:

Reggie did glow about Alec Pierce too, let’s see, time will tell. Downs does have great feel for open spaces and has exceptional body control and hands.

 

I do wonder if Ballard’s first under 6-foot WR draft pick is a philosophical change from Reich, and dictated more by Steichen. Note that Reich traded away D J Moore, and signed Adam Thielen and drafted Jonathan Mingo, both tall WRs.

Two points…. 
 

One:  yes, there’s been a bit of a change in philosophy.  Ballard said on night two of the draft that Steichen wanted a different look in his WR room.   (Smaller, quicker.)

 

Two:  I don’t think Carolina traded Moore because he wasn’t big enough for Frank.  They traded him because he’s really good.  The Bears valued him.   He’s their new WR1.   The deal wasn’t getting done without him.  Moore is 6’0” and 210.   He’s certainly big enough. 
 

[throwing BBZ]

14 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I like Downs a lot - he'll be great for us.

 

On a side note, I don't think we would've drafted him if Wayne and one of our Scouts hadn't pounded the table for him. He had a great RAS of 8.99, but he's only 5'9" 171lbs. That's not Ballard's profile for a WR.

 

 Apparently not a widely known fact.

Ballard signed WR Isaiah McKenzie. 5'8" 173. 

So if Steichen put in a order for one of these for His Offense, depth makes sense. 

 Downs was mocked in the 40's by some, so I can picture Reggie jumping up and down with Downs still available at 79. 

 Cooper Kupp, Welker, Edelman, oh yeah, give me a whole bunch of that!

[Stephen]

On 4/30/2023 at 4:59 PM, CR91 said:

 

I think he would have went sooner if he ran a 4.3 because he ran closer to 4.5 

Jerry rice ran 4.6

[CR91]

Just now, Stephen said:

Jerry rice ran 4.6

 

This isn't 1982

[Stephen]

19 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

This isn't 1982

Lol

[Stephen]

19 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

This isn't 1982

Keenan allen ran 4.6 michael pittman 4.5 downs is faster than pittman

[CR91]

21 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Keenan allen ran 4.6 michael pittman 4.5 downs is faster than pittman

 

Their both atleast 6 2. Downs is 5 9

[CR91]

22 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I like Downs a lot - he'll be great for us.

 

On a side note, I don't think we would've drafted him if Wayne and one of our Scouts hadn't pounded the table for him. He had a great RAS of 8.99, but he's only 5'9" 171lbs. That's not Ballard's profile for a WR.

 

I thought of that, but keep in mind it's a much different offense then Reich's and AR needs a safety blanket underneath. Pitt works the intermediate and Pierce can work the sideline and jump ball

[John Waylon]

Finally got around to watching “with the next pick” today and there’s something different to this kid. He just looks hungry. The more I see of him the more I like the pick. 

[DiogoSales]

7 hours ago, John Waylon said:

Finally got around to watching “with the next pick” today and there’s something different to this kid. He just looks hungry. The more I see of him the more I like the pick. 

Agree

 

Have you see the vídeo of his footwork drill? This guy seems legit.

[2006Coltsbestever]

On 5/7/2023 at 4:32 PM, CR91 said:

 

This isn't 1982

Just asking but what does 1982 have to do with anything? Darrell Green ran a 4.29 back in 1982. Back then they had guys that were faster than some in today's game.

[CR91]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Just asking but what does 1982 have to do with anything? Darrell Green ran a 4.29 back in 1982. Back then they had guys that were faster than some in today's game.

 

Speed especially at WR wasn't as required as it is today. The game is a lot faster so your players have to match. Being undersized, you need to have something to make yourself stick out. Size gets you in the door. Talent keeps you inside.

[Stephen]

4 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Speed especially at WR wasn't as required as it is today. The game is a lot faster so your players have to match. Being undersized, you need to have something to make yourself stick out. Size gets you in the door. Talent keeps you inside.

Elite release and route running can make a 4.4 guy look faster than a 4.2 particularly if the 4.2 guy is terrible at running routes

[Stephen]

On 5/7/2023 at 5:26 PM, CR91 said:

 

I thought of that, but keep in mind it's a much different offense then Reich's and AR needs a safety blanket underneath. Pitt works the intermediate and Pierce can work the sideline and jump ball

Steichen offense will have more deep shots Richardsons strength

[CR91]

5 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Elite release and route running can make a 4.4 guy look faster than a 4.2 particularly if the 4.2 guy is terrible at running routes

 

Not arguing that. Im not hating on Josh. I love his tape. I'm just giving a reason why he fell.

[Stephen]

34 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Not arguing that. Im not hating on Josh. I love his tape. I'm just giving a reason why he fell.

I agree that size and speed can cause bad wrs to rise and good ones to fall. I think downs is a better route runner than hilton when he first came out. Hilton was faster though. Granted Luck wasnt the most accurate his rookie year yet hilton still got over 800 yards as the third wr behind wayne and avery. Maybe downs can do something similar, but I really feel pierce may end up with the most tds out of our wr