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37 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Grover’s new contract kicks in this year.   Dayo will only sub for him on passing downs.  I don’t see a late round pick (Grover was a late 4) as being his eventual replacement as a run stuffer.   It could happen, but you’d be getting lucky. 

 

   This is year two of Grovers contract. And we could save $8M going another way after this season. Now this is just forward thinking idle chatter because  we do have the luxury of seeing how G performs in the new D.
   In another post i shared that Seattle moved away from the big (Red Bryant) type DT for more of a penetrator. Grove might be wise to redue his body once again and lose another 15 lbs. Just sayin'. 
  We are not deep at DT, so finding a good prospect on a Rookie deal might be important as early as 2023. 

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18 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

   This is year two of Grovers contract. And we could save $8M going another way after this season. Now this is just forward thinking idle chatter because  we do have the luxury of seeing how G performs in the new D.
   In another post i shared that Seattle moved away from the big (Red Bryant) type DT for more of a penetrator. Grove might be wise to redue his body once again and lose another 15 lbs. Just sayin'. 
  We are not deep at DT, so finding a good prospect on a Rookie deal might be important as early as 2023. 


Grover has gone from 344 to 333 to 325 and now at 315.    And he plays the Nose.   And you want him to get….    Smaller?   
 

I don’t think that’s what the team wants.  

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Heard an interesting statistics from Mike Greenberg on ESPN this morning.  They had compiled all first round draft choices since 2000, and made a Rule of Thumb statistic for a successful pick is whether or not that player got a second contract from the team that drafted them.  Top of the list?  Offensive Center.  100%.  All 9 centers that were drafted in the first round were given a second contract from their team.  Followed by Left Tackle (61%), Quarterback, and Guard.

Who was at the bottom?

The second worst position was WIDE RECEIVER.  Only 27% of WR's taken in the first round were signed to a second contract by their team.  Is that due to their poor quality of play?  Or due to how many wanted a Massive second contract that their team was unwilling to give them?

In any case, I think it makes an interesting argument for the Ballard Model.  He hasn't drafted a WR in the first round.  He's done it twice in the second round.  But not the first.  He may never do it.  At least, if these statistics bear out into the future.

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:


Grover’s new contract kicks in this year.   Dayo will only sub for him on passing downs.  I don’t see a late round pick (Grover was a late 4) as being his eventual replacement as a run stuffer.   It could happen, but you’d be getting lucky. 

Grover has 2yrs left and a dead cap hit of 10m this year and 1.25m next year. He will count 10m against the cap this year and next.  Not saying he will be a cap casualty but they may look for his replacement soon unless they intend to resign him to a 3rd contract. 

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30 minutes ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

No one wants to trade up because although this is a deep draft it lacks elite talent. Ballard mentioned only 5 or 6 blue chip guys.

I dont see CB doing it, but there ARE some blue chip (tier 1) WRs that MIGHT still be on the board in the "20s" in round 1

 

It would cost us our 2nd and probably our 3rd

 

I dont see CB doing that

 

I see us trading OUT of pick 42 to get more picks and getting a later 2nd where we get a Tier 2 WR / or TE

 

 

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42 minutes ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

No one wants to trade up because although this is a deep draft it lacks elite talent. Ballard mentioned only 5 or 6 blue chip guys.

Not to mention that tweet comes out everytime this year.  There is always teams looking to trade back for more picks.

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2 hours ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

To bad Sam doesn’t have a better arm.

 

 

No wonder Eason is gone. That was impressive and exactly what you want in your backup.  They should be breaking things down and talking to the starter and coaches and helping make adjustments in the film room and during the game. 

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3 hours ago, Shive said:

This isn't necessarily directed at you, but it was a relevant post to rebuke a bit.

 

My issue with what Samuel is requesting is that he's using last year's performance (WR/RB hybrid role) to get paid for what will be solely WR production. I don't doubt that he could produce well as a WR only, but to try to use what he did last year as a reason for getting paid what he's asking to get paid is asinine. He's asking to be paid for past production that he is currently refusing to do moving forward.

 

At the end of the day, I liked Samuel as a prospect (not as much as others, admittedly) and think he's a really good WR. I would not want the Colts to give up the draft capital it would take to get him, nor the cap space he would demand. I also think his refusal to do something his team is asking him to do is antithetical to what Irsay meant by "all-in". He said that everyone needs to be willing to give everything they can to the team and sacrifice for the team. Samuel is absolutely able to make a business decision that he believes will help prolong his career, but with the way the entire thing seems to have been handled, he doesn't see like a Ballard or Irsay kind of guy.

 

It seems like a Catch 22 on the surface. But I think people underestimate the value of Deebo as a WR. Or at least are using the RB production to downplay his ability as a WR.

 

Last season, Deebo was a top 5 WR . His targets, catches, yards and yards/catch are on par with Chase, who many think will be the best WR in the NFL in a year or so. 

 

More importantly, Deebo managed to have top 5 yardage, while being #21 in targets at WR. He had insane efficiency:

 

Yards/catch - #1

Yards/target - #1

Yards/route run - #4

Yards after catch - #2

Juke rate - #2

EPA - #6

 

And those 59 carries/touches at RB don't just vanish into the ether. In theory, they would turn into more targets for Deebo in the passing game, which could make him a top 3 WR or even higher.

 

For one example, if all 59 carries became receiving targets, Deebo's receiving pace would have been 2,052 receiving yards. 

 

Efficiency can be hard to maintain though. But Deebo is likely one of the best YAC WRs we have seen, hence the production as a RB. So I imagine he will challenge for a top 5 WR spots for the next few years, assuming good health.

 

All that said, I don't see the Colts paying up for him. But he's the type of addition that could put a team over the top.

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Giants shopping receiver Darius Slayton. Some injury problems but maybe not the issues they have had with Kadarius Toney? His production was down last year in a bad overall year for the Giants, but he logged 750 yards in 2020 and 2019 respectively.

 

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20 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

How would yall react if Ballard traded up into 1st for QB

Surprised but live with it.  Hard to argue that QB of the future isn’t a need.

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Next Sunday, someone can create 'The Belly Ache Draft Thread' Homer Simpson Laughing GIF by FOX TV

People will be belly aching long before Sunday over the draft lol.

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22 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

No wonder Eason is gone. That was impressive and exactly what you want in your backup.  They should be breaking things down and talking to the starter and coaches and helping make adjustments in the film room and during the game. 

Modern day Jim Sorgi and there is nothing wrong with that.

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37 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

How would yall react if Ballard traded up into 1st for QB


It would be hard not to support. If the Colts believe enough to trade up that the QB is going to be the future of the team and wants him to sit behind Ryan and learn then I think it would be great.

 

it would be more of a future move than an immediate help but who knows with the Colts injury situation, could see the field at some point this year. The real test would be when he actually plays though. Would people still be happy with the pick.

 

I think opinions could be swayed by how people look at the team as well. If they think we are only missing a couple spots from being a SB contender then they most likely would want LT or WR. If they believe we have some work to do and SB chances are slim, then QB wouldn’t be a bad option. (Give me Ridder or Howell)

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

How would yall react if Ballard traded up into 1st for QB

Depends on the QB... but overall I wouldn't mind it if they really believe in the guy... I think on a strategic level it's a good move. 

 

43 minutes ago, Happy2BeHere said:

Almost 100 pages here…most of “gibberish” haha 

 

will be nice when the draft is finally over. Then we can all bellyache about that :sarcasm:

Why wait when we can do it in advance? :D 

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41 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

How would yall react if Ballard traded up into 1st for QB

IMO, I had it as a 10-15% chance we'd trade up for a QB, so I'm ready for it in the back of my mind. For me, it depends on the QB, and the price we'd have paid to acquire him. I would have to see it before deciding how I'd react.

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1 hour ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

Destins 2nd predictive draft from what he is hearing. I like this one. Trading down 8 spots to get a extra 3rd would be really good.

 

https://www.thebluestable.com/colts/colts-7-round-predictive-mock-draft-2-0/

 

Maybe they actually went to Cincinnati for Pierce.

 

He has very good ball skills, but rarely gets wide open.  For me, it's like Bell.  If you're rarely getting wide open in college, I'm not sure it will fly in the pros.  

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56 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

How would yall react if Ballard traded up into 1st for QB

I would probably have to call Jeff Giloolie on speed dial.

 

We don't have the draft capital to trade up into the first round.

If we did trade up into the first round, it would probably cost next year's first, plus more.

And none, I repeat, none of these QB's are worth multiple draft picks.

 

Yeah, I'd be like, "Hey, Jeff, do you still have that baseball bat?"

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:


Grover has gone from 344 to 333 to 325 and now at 315.    And he plays the Nose.   And you want him to get….    Smaller?   
 

I don’t think that’s what the team wants.  

 

 And there we go. You see a nose tackle and it is my understanding his DC DOESN'T want one. He wants a penetrator that stops the run on the way to the QB. So we will see if that is true, and if Grove is still worth his paycheck to us in 2023. Gonna be fun to watch.

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25 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 And there we go. You see a nose tackle and it is my understanding his DC DOESN'T want one. He wants a penetrator that stops the run on the way to the QB. So we will see if that is true, and if Grove is still worth his paycheck to us in 2023. Gonna be fun to watch.


Ok….  You may be 100 percent right.   Honestly, I’ve not heard the “the new DC doesn’t want one” claim.   This is a first. 
 

If that’s true, then I think we’re moving on from Stewart next year when his dead cap hit is manageable.    It’s not this year. 

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1 hour ago, danlhart87 said:

How would yall react if Ballard traded up into 1st for QB

I am not sure I would love it since it doesn't appear to be an immediate need for the team this year. We need to draft guys who can play right away in my opinion. If they love somebody that much in this draft then why trade for Matt Ryan to be your QB for the next two years?

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1 hour ago, TaylorTheStudMuffin said:

I would be perfectly ok with it. There are a lot of people who have said they will scream if it happens. 

I would be fine with it as well.  If someone they really like falls I can see them doing it.  He would be in a perfect situation to develop behind Ryan.  I read the Titans might be looking at a QB to develop behind Tannehill.  Good teams like the Titans and Colts might feel this is the time and opportunity to get a successor in place.  I don’t think it can be ruled out at all.  

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