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Colts Defense now ranked 11th in NFL.


Lawrence Owen

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15 hours ago, BOTT said:

Sure, every team plays poor offenses, but as far as points per game

 

25) miami

26) jets

28) tennessee 

29) oakland 

30) jacksonville

31) buffalo

 

 The colts have literally been playing the worst offenses in the NFL last several weeks.  They are heading in the right direction, but they still need an influx of talent.

 

 

Yep...if you look at Offense EXP...it tells the same story. The Colts have had the easiest SOS on defense of any team...and it's probably not close. And some of those already-bad offenses had awful backup QBs playing...and/or had just traded away their best weapons.

 

By the end of the season, 3/4 of the offenses they have faced will be bottom-tier offenses (including the very worst). The only top 10 offense will be NE...who would have have hung 50 on the Colts if not for flukey INTs in Colts territory.

 

The other non-crappy offenses are PHI...a rain-soaked game and Wentz's first game back (and a couple of players out)...CIN...the first game of the year...and HOU x2...who they gave up 37 to in the first meeting (we will see how this Sunday goes).

 

Point is...it's just really difficult to know how good this defense is. And I think any rankings that indicate that are going to be skewed by an unbelievable schedule.

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5 hours ago, cbear said:

Granted we haven't been playing the best offenses, but how would you feel if they were ranked 25th playing these bad offensive teams?  They need to get better, but I don't see how you can make excuses for their good play. 

 

Not excuses...context. The entire AFC South are ranked 10 in several categories...and might all finish as top 10 overall defenses at the end of the season. That's not a bad thing...but its not without context. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

 

Not excuses...context. The entire AFC South are ranked 10 in several categories...and might all finish as top 10 overall defenses at the end of the season. That's not a bad thing...but its not without context. 

 

 

NO just got man handled by Dallas,...and Dallas is not as good on defense as the Jags..and NO is Better than Indy on O.  You think their fans are saying 'context' also?  Frankly....I think we beat the brakes off Dallas.  But the Texans maybe another story.

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1. They play the schedule they are given.

2. They are clearly better than anything that's been on the field the last couple of years.

3. They are young and learning the NFL on the fly.

4. They are playing for a rookie DC while playing a new system.

5. They are ranked just outside of the Top 10 - whereas if they were ranked closer to 30 you whiners would be chirping louder.

6. There are playmakers developing at each level of the defense in Autry, Turay, Lewis.....Leonard, Walker......Wilson, Moore II, soon to be Collins......and Hooker (and for the naysayers, check out how many big plays of 40+ yards we've given up).

7. 120 million in cap space next year.

8. 7 of our own draft picks, a 2nd rounder from the Jets, a 4th round compensatory pick......and the possibility of more by trading Brissett.

9. With the likes of Fowler, Jordan, Flowers, Dunlap, Graham, Atkins, Jarrett, Clowney, Barr, Darby, Roby, Dennard, Collins, Amos and Joyner potentially available as free agents and that previous 120 million dollars available.....

10. These reasons alone should have you excited for the rest of the season and moving on into the future.

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  I would expect Houston to win by 14. Us having no blocking TE kills our run and pass game.

 Eberflus has a nice rotation going to plug the run game.

Our 2 young LB's are reading and reacting better and better, It is fun watching them, they are both Gritty. Matt Adams impressed me Sunday. A 7th rd rookie that hasn't played that much. He looked like he gets it.
 Kenny Moore is also getting better. He is starting to impress me. 

 Houston will be a good test.

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For all those people,..Look now. We just played a hot Texans team...with a good offense.  And we are now up in the top 10 in Defense.  Our run D has been absolutely phenomenal this season.  And in the past 4-5 games where Eberflus has thrown a few more blitzes in each game, we've been coming away with more sacks, and better pass defense.  But ofc so many of you are just going to say "we played bad teams". Seems every team we play has 'played poorly' against us. When you put together a season of 'playing poorly', when does one start saying,"Maybe this defense isn't too bad."? 

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IMO, the most important team stat besides scoring, is 3rd down efficiency. Our defense is at the bottom and our offense is at the top. 

I know the D is playing better, but it seems like they get 2 good stops only to give up a big play on 3rd down. 

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39 minutes ago, Lawrence Owen said:

For all those people,..Look now. We just played a hot Texans team...with a good offense.  And we are now up in the top 10 in Defense.  Our run D has been absolutely phenomenal this season.  And in the past 4-5 games where Eberflus has thrown a few more blitzes in each game, we've been coming away with more sacks, and better pass defense.  But ofc so many of you are just going to say "we played bad teams". Seems every team we play has 'played poorly' against us. When you put together a season of 'playing poorly', when does one start saying,"Maybe this defense isn't too bad."? 

When? When they play well against a good offense like they did today.

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57 minutes ago, BOTT said:

When? When they play well against a good offense like they did today.

Run D has played well, Vrs many Good running teams this year. and has not given up a 100 yards to a single rusher and only given up 100+ to a team of running backs 2 times. Our run D has been really good ALL year minus 2 games.  And even those games it was not the run that killed us.   1/2 the D is run D.  

Anyways...it is not our fault we have played only 2 top 15 offenses this year. NE and the Texans. You play the schedule you're given.  And our run D has been there nearly every game.    

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This defense isn't very good. They're 15th in passing yards allowed, 15th in points allowed, tied for 27th on third down (with Dallas, so hopefully our league best third down offense eats next week), our defense has been penalized more than any other defense this season (7.7 times/game;  I can't find how many first downs we've given up due to penalty, or how many penalties come on third down, but that's probably a league worst number also). QBs complete 72% of their passes against us (31st), for an average of 7.7 yards/attempt (19th), with a 97.5 passer rating (23rd). 

 

Our defense doesn't give up a lot of "big" plays (usually defined as 20+ yarders) we definitely give up a lot of moderate plays (10-19 yarders). I can't find specific stats on moderate plays, but we all see them happen every week. 

 

The defense has played some pretty good games this season. I'm happy with how they played today, for the most part; the tackling was spotty, and we gave up a couple long third down conversions, but it was a good performance overall. Last week was strong also. But it's no secret that the defense has been torched at times this season. And it's also a relevant fact that these mostly bad-to-mediocre numbers have come against an unimpressive list of offensive opponents.

 

Of course, this is a new defense with a bunch of young an inexperienced players, some barely replacement level players, and they've probably played an overly simply coverage scheme most of the season. The defense has also been hit with a lot of injuries. So I'm not down on the defense, and I think there's a lot of potential there. 

 

BUT, the defense isn't very good this year, statistically or otherwise. 

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15 hours ago, Superman said:

This defense isn't very good. They're 15th in passing yards allowed, 15th in points allowed, tied for 27th on third down (with Dallas, so hopefully our league best third down offense eats next week), our defense has been penalized more than any other defense this season (7.7 times/game;  I can't find how many first downs we've given up due to penalty, or how many penalties come on third down, but that's probably a league worst number also). QBs complete 72% of their passes against us (31st), for an average of 7.7 yards/attempt (19th), with a 97.5 passer rating (23rd). 

 

Our defense doesn't give up a lot of "big" plays (usually defined as 20+ yarders) we definitely give up a lot of moderate plays (10-19 yarders). I can't find specific stats on moderate plays, but we all see them happen every week. 

 

The defense has played some pretty good games this season. I'm happy with how they played today, for the most part; the tackling was spotty, and we gave up a couple long third down conversions, but it was a good performance overall. Last week was strong also. But it's no secret that the defense has been torched at times this season. And it's also a relevant fact that these mostly bad-to-mediocre numbers have come against an unimpressive list of offensive opponents.

 

Of course, this is a new defense with a bunch of young an inexperienced players, some barely replacement level players, and they've probably played an overly simply coverage scheme most of the season. The defense has also been hit with a lot of injuries. So I'm not down on the defense, and I think there's a lot of potential there. 

 

BUT, the defense isn't very good this year, statistically or otherwise. 

Something has been bugging me a little about your statement.  Can you or anyone in this forum honestly say that you expected our Defense to be 10th in NFL?  Or even have the 15th pass defense? Or 12th run defense?  Those numbers are really in our favor considering how our Offense can catch fire any time.

As for the  Defense.  I admit that the first 1/2 of the year it looked bad. Especially the pass defense (Run D has been solid all year).  But we had a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players,...under a brand new coach & scheme.  Went from 6 years of man...to zone .  It is quite possible it just took time not only for our players to get down the scheme, and be able to react rather than think, but also for our DC to get a good feel of our defensive players and call plays that fit their talents.  The total defense passing wise is skewed from the first 1/2 of the season.  The 2nd 1/2 has been much better.  I think the learning curve maybe catching up finally. And just in time also.

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15 hours ago, Superman said:

This defense isn't very good. They're 15th in passing yards allowed, 15th in points allowed, tied for 27th on third down (with Dallas, so hopefully our league best third down offense eats next week), our defense has been penalized more than any other defense this season (7.7 times/game;  I can't find how many first downs we've given up due to penalty, or how many penalties come on third down, but that's probably a league worst number also). QBs complete 72% of their passes against us (31st), for an average of 7.7 yards/attempt (19th), with a 97.5 passer rating (23rd). 

 

Our defense doesn't give up a lot of "big" plays (usually defined as 20+ yarders) we definitely give up a lot of moderate plays (10-19 yarders). I can't find specific stats on moderate plays, but we all see them happen every week. 

 

The defense has played some pretty good games this season. I'm happy with how they played today, for the most part; the tackling was spotty, and we gave up a couple long third down conversions, but it was a good performance overall. Last week was strong also. But it's no secret that the defense has been torched at times this season. And it's also a relevant fact that these mostly bad-to-mediocre numbers have come against an unimpressive list of offensive opponents.

 

Of course, this is a new defense with a bunch of young an inexperienced players, some barely replacement level players, and they've probably played an overly simply coverage scheme most of the season. The defense has also been hit with a lot of injuries. So I'm not down on the defense, and I think there's a lot of potential there. 

 

BUT, the defense isn't very good this year, statistically or otherwise. 

The defense only has to be good in December and January to really matter, at this point.  Plus the continual improvement is promising.  At least we aren't bottom of the barrel, and for a change (this year) it's exciting to watch them play!

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4 minutes ago, Lawrence Owen said:

Something has been bugging me a little about your statement.  Can you or anyone in this forum honestly say that you expected our Defense to be 10th in NFL?  Or even have the 15th pass defense? Or 12th run defense?  Those numbers are really in our favor considering how our Offense can catch fire any time.

As for the  Defense.  I admit that the first 1/2 of the year it looked bad. Especially the pass defense (Run D has been solid all year).  But we had a bunch of 1st and 2nd year players,...under a brand new coach & scheme.  Went from 6 years of man...to zone .  It is quite possible it just took time not only for our players to get down the scheme, and be able to react rather than think, but also for our DC to get a good feel of our defensive players and call plays that fit their talents.  The total defense passing wise is skewed from the first 1/2 of the season.  The 2nd 1/2 has been much better.  I think the learning curve maybe catching up finally. And just in time also.

 

I think I allowed for the learning curve, the young players, and the new DC. I also mentioned the injuries, which have surely had an impact.

 

But I personally don't put a lot of stock in yardage rankings, so I can't say what I expected from those rankings coming into the season. I'm fine with the Colts having decent yardage rankings, but I think yardage stats provided a very limited idea of how good a team actually is, in any phase.

 

And in recent weeks, we've played teams with serious issues at QB: Mariota was playing like trash, then got hurt and set us up against Blaine Gabbert; Tannehill was coming back from injury but still had an efficient game; Kessler completed 75% of his throws against us (good game from the defense, but it seems like anyone can hit 70% on us); Watson was efficient as well, and the defense wasn't exactly stout on that last drive.

 

The defense being top 15 in total yardage isn't arguable, and it's a positive. But I don't think that it means the defense is good. And when you include a lot of other stats, and consider the opposition, and watch how they perform, I don't see how we can claim this defense is good. Especially against the pass.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think I allowed for the learning curve, the young players, and the new DC. I also mentioned the injuries, which have surely had an impact.

 

But I personally don't put a lot of stock in yardage rankings, so I can't say what I expected from those rankings coming into the season. I'm fine with the Colts having decent yardage rankings, but I think yardage stats provided a very limited idea of how good a team actually is, in any phase.

 

And in recent weeks, we've played teams with serious issues at QB: Mariota was playing like trash, then got hurt and set us up against Blaine Gabbert; Tannehill was coming back from injury but still had an efficient game; Kessler completed 75% of his throws against us (good game from the defense, but it seems like anyone can hit 70% on us); Watson was efficient as well, and the defense wasn't exactly stout on that last drive.

 

The defense being top 15 in total yardage isn't arguable, and it's a positive. But I don't think that it means the defense is good. And when you include a lot of other stats, and consider the opposition, and watch how they perform, I don't see how we can claim this defense is good. Especially against the pass.

The biggest problem with our pass defense i think is the type of zone scheme we run.  We do allow underneath throws by design.  Anything in the 10-20 yard range is that soft spot in our zone.  We normally lock down anything past 25+ and 5 yards and under are 'designed' to tackle fast and stop yac.  But any QB worth their salt will see the 10-20 soft part and take advantage.  At that point it is up to the defenders to read the QB and react as he throws.  That is a tough thing to ask anyone to do IMO.  But yeah,...i get that % worry you have. 

But i also look at complete drives. not just plays on an individual basis.  When you defend the run well, you end up putting teams in long yardage 3rd down. And this scheme is based off making team walk the field on 10+ play drives.  Even at 70% completion %, This stalls drives in the long run.  If you complete 70%, but have to make 8 pass plays/drive.  There is a good chance one of those 3rd downs fail. Drive ended. 

I think this is the basis of the defense.  Good is not good enough on a bend but don't break type defense.  It's meant to allow a score on 1/3-1/4 of drives. TD or field goal. using the % explanation listed above.  if you get 3 drives a quarter..and score on 1/3 of them..that's 4 scores/game.  That is the safe defense built for a team that also has high scoring offense. 24 points should win games with this type of defense.  

This is why i think Indy would beat K.C.  They are not patient, they live and die off the big play.  And our defense just don't allow big plays.  Not that teams don't try. We just take it away.

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think I allowed for the learning curve, the young players, and the new DC. I also mentioned the injuries, which have surely had an impact.

 

But I personally don't put a lot of stock in yardage rankings, so I can't say what I expected from those rankings coming into the season. I'm fine with the Colts having decent yardage rankings, but I think yardage stats provided a very limited idea of how good a team actually is, in any phase.

 

And in recent weeks, we've played teams with serious issues at QB: Mariota was playing like trash, then got hurt and set us up against Blaine Gabbert; Tannehill was coming back from injury but still had an efficient game; Kessler completed 75% of his throws against us (good game from the defense, but it seems like anyone can hit 70% on us); Watson was efficient as well, and the defense wasn't exactly stout on that last drive.

 

The defense being top 15 in total yardage isn't arguable, and it's a positive. But I don't think that it means the defense is good. And when you include a lot of other stats, and consider the opposition, and watch how they perform, I don't see how we can claim this defense is good. Especially against the pass.

They're 11th in DVOA as well. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

70 percent completion rate doesn't mean much when you're throwing check downs all game. Not sure if the opposing doing that, but just saying. 

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1 hour ago, Tsarquise said:

They're 11th in DVOA as well. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

70 percent completion rate doesn't mean much when you're throwing check downs all game. Not sure if the opposing doing that, but just saying. 

 

But 21st against the pass. 

 

And no, they aren't throwing check downs all game, though we've been through some stretches where we also couldn't tackle consistently on check downs (including some drives against the Jags). Offenses have been attacking us in the intermediate areas and getting moderate chunks against us all season.

 

And we haven't really faced any powerhouse offenses or passing attacks. 

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2 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

That is the safe defense built for a team that also has high scoring offense. 24 points should win games with this type of defense.  

 

We give up 23.1/game. Scoring 24 is a little close. We're at 26.8, with a recent shutout, so the defense does well enough. 

 

It's true that we do a good job of not giving up big plays (there have been a few), but there's an arbitrary value on what qualifies as a "big play." If we changed it from 20+ to 15+, I bet the Colts would be far less impressive on big plays.

 

But in general, we do make offenses go the long way, and that's mostly good because it turns some potential TD drives into FG drives. But it also takes its toll, with lopsided TOP at times. Which is doubly bad if we still give up the TD. 

 

My main point is that the defense is still problematic, specifically against the pass. We have some good days and some good drives, and that's with a bunch of young guys, some replacement level players, a new scheme, a first year DC/playcaller, battling injuries across the board, and no primary pass rush threat. There's reason for optimism, but I think the defense needs a lot of work before it will qualify as "good."

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3 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

The biggest problem with our pass defense i think is the type of zone scheme we run.  We do allow underneath throws by design.  Anything in the 10-20 yard range is that soft spot in our zone.  We normally lock down anything past 25+ and 5 yards and under are 'designed' to tackle fast and stop yac.  But any QB worth their salt will see the 10-20 soft part and take advantage.  At that point it is up to the defenders to read the QB and react as he throws.  That is a tough thing to ask anyone to do IMO.  But yeah,...i get that % worry you have. 

But i also look at complete drives. not just plays on an individual basis.  When you defend the run well, you end up putting teams in long yardage 3rd down. And this scheme is based off making team walk the field on 10+ play drives.  Even at 70% completion %, This stalls drives in the long run.  If you complete 70%, but have to make 8 pass plays/drive.  There is a good chance one of those 3rd downs fail. Drive ended. 

I think this is the basis of the defense.  Good is not good enough on a bend but don't break type defense.  It's meant to allow a score on 1/3-1/4 of drives. TD or field goal. using the % explanation listed above.  if you get 3 drives a quarter..and score on 1/3 of them..that's 4 scores/game.  That is the safe defense built for a team that also has high scoring offense. 24 points should win games with this type of defense.  

This is why i think Indy would beat K.C.  They are not patient, they live and die off the big play.  And our defense just don't allow big plays.  Not that teams don't try. We just take it away.

I ain’t gonna lie...I think you just characterized the Dungy D years quite well...and I just threw up a little in my mouth.

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57 minutes ago, Lawrence Owen said:

The difference between the dungy era and now is, our Linebacker starters are LEAGUES better.

Easy now.  We do look like we have a better WILL...but let’s not act like 2 rookies and a second year guy trying to make it are all that yet.

 

The main thing that would differentiate the second edition is if they choose to defend receivers consistently.

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58 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Easy now.  We do look like we have a better WILL...but let’s not act like 2 rookies and a second year guy trying to make it are all that yet.

 

The main thing that would differentiate the second edition is if they choose to defend receivers consistently.

Being we are in a nickel most snaps on defense, that just leaves Leonard and Walker.  And I will argue  with anyone that the only team in the NFL that has a young due at linebacker, even in their caliber, is Smith and LVE in Dallas.

I know it is only stats, But if you watch them play they confirm these stats.

 

best linebackers.png

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I think our defense is playing above league average. Sure we give up too many big plays on 3rd down and getting too much flags. But look at our experience and overall talent on that D. Eberflus did a hell of a job this season. No one expected our defense to play at that level this season. Give him a 1st round talent pass rusher and a good cb and this D will be outstanding.

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6 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

Being we are in a nickel most snaps on defense, that just leaves Leonard and Walker.  And I will argue  with anyone that the only team in the NFL that has a young due at linebacker, even in their caliber, is Smith and LVE in Dallas.

I know it is only stats, But if you watch them play they confirm these stats.

 

best linebackers.png

Walker is trending, no doubt, but it’s very early and he has done little to suggest elite impact...he’s just been steady.  

 

The LB play has gotten better, but if you watched the Cowboys against the Saints, it didn’t look like that, nor do we take away space guarding receivers the way they do in the secondary..yet we are showing some adaptations in this version of the scheme that provide reasons for optimism that we just might eventually.  

 

Overall, it’s all about what we choose to do with the back end of the defense.  Players and scheme.

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18 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

The defense only has to be good in December and January to really matter, at this point.  Plus the continual improvement is promising.  At least we aren't bottom of the barrel, and for a change (this year) it's exciting to watch them play!

 

Thank you. This is exactly what we could Hope for this season and have gotten.
And we have a number of very promising defenders to build with.
And a FA period & draft that will no doubt add several quality players.
 I think all of us see a few spots to add to and that more experience in the system will make us better.
 We Colts fans are going to be seriously pumped next training camp.

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On 12/3/2018 at 7:46 PM, BOTT said:

Sure, every team plays poor offenses, but as far as points per game

 

25) miami

26) jets

28) tennessee 

29) oakland 

30) jacksonville

31) buffalo

 

 The colts have literally been playing the worst offenses in the NFL last several weeks.  They are heading in the right direction, but they still need an influx of talent.

 

Could you not flip that around and say those teams have all played a top 11 defense in the past few weeks?

 

I guess I don't understand how their offensive ranking over the course of the entire year somehow nullifies the Colts defensive ranking over the course of the entire year.  Did not the Colts D contribute to the low offensive rankings?

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1 minute ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Could you not flip that around and say those teams have all played a top 11 defense in the past few weeks?

 

I guess I don't understand how their offensive ranking over the course of the entire year somehow nullifies the Colts defensive ranking over the course of the entire year.  Did not the Colts D contribute to the low offensive rankings?

I did not even think of this.  Much like how many of the games, our offense played (at the time) 7 different top 10 defenses (especially top 10 Defensive front 7's).  Obviously not all of them are top 10 now...but at the time they were ranked that, and Indy's O was in part responsible for removing them from that top 10 ranking.

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