Drafting a RB

[dodsworth]

A bunch of posters are saying we should draft a RB early in the

draft for various reasons. So here is a question for all.

 

If you were in control this past draft, would you give 

a pick in the 1st two rounds for a RB or stay the course

with Ballard and try to solidify the lines and defense

with the picks of Nelson, Leonard, Braden Smith,

Turay and Tyquan Lewis?

[Valpo2004]

I probably would have used one of the later 2nd round picks on Guice.

 

Of course hindsight is 20/20 with his injury, but that is what I would have done at the time.

[stitches]

I'm OK with the way Ballard apportioned his resources on RBs. I also would have been OK if we took a RB late in the second(Guice?) or in the third. I don't find anything particularly objectionable about the way we addressed the RB position at the time. Keep in mind that at the time Mack was healthy and Turbin was still not suspended. 

 

My problem with the draft was not that we didn't spend high enough pick on a RB. My problem was that IMO we spent two second round picks on players I personally didn't have close to second round value on(Smith and Lewis). I was begging for us to take one of Landry(will be a beast for the Titans), Josh Jackson(already looks like a starting quality CB AND was a perfect system fit), Connor Williams - much better prospect than Braden Smith IMO and surprise surprise... he took a starting spot on a strong Dallas line from day 1). 

 

But back on the RB - the sweet spot for drafting a RB seems to be around rounds 2-to-4. I'm OK with fortifying both O-line and D-line with the early picks as a matter of strategy. 

[Surge89]

10 minutes ago, stitches said:

I'm OK with the way Ballard apportioned his resources on RBs. I also would have been OK if we took a RB late in the second(Guice?) or in the third. I don't find anything particularly objectionable about the way we addressed the RB position at the time. 

 

My problem with the draft was not that we didn't spend high enough pick on a RB. My problem was that IMO we spent two second round picks on players I personally didn't have close to second round value on(Smith and Lewis). I was begging for us to take one of Landry(will be a beast for the Titans), Josh Jackson(already looks like a starting quality CB AND was a perfect system fit), Connor Williams - much better prospect than Braden Smith IMO and surprise surprise... he took a starting spot on a strong Dallas line from day 1). 

 

But back on the RB - the sweet spot for drafting a RB seems to be around rounds 2-to-4. I'm OK with fortifying both O-line and D-line with the early picks as a matter of strategy. 

 

I'm going to quote you as you have the most I agree with.

 

I too am OK with how the RB was put on a lower priority than the lines.  That is a good philosophy. But I also have an issue with the players taken and the overall draft value in reference to the bigger picture.

 

My biggest issue with this draft is that Ballard used 2 extremely high picks on 2 defensive line players (I didn't like the players, well I like Turay just not in the 2nd, but that aside) in a draft that wasn't deep in defensive line talent (especially end) and right before next years draft which is going to be loaded with defensive line talent.  This seemed extremely short sighted to me and was forcing picks instead of just taking what the draft gives you.  If you truly are drafting for the future then lets take what the draft is loaded in, than take oddball players to get help on a spot you have no bodies for (DE).  This type of contradiction is worrying for a GM who keeps the mantra of the draft will be his main source of talent.  That is a huge red flag for me.

 

Aside from that I to liked a lot of other players.  Smith was a 4th round pick in my book and Connor Williams was a 1st round graded player at a position of need.  That skip made no sense.   The corners that were available were insane and all seem to be playing good roles for their respective teams.  I was completely fine with Leonard but the rest of the second round was a total embarrassing mismanagement of resources and I'm pretty sure we will be feeling the effects of those waste of picks in a years time when we are either A. taking more DE's or B. not taking DE's in a stacked class because we already took mediocre ones in a terrible class.

[Luck 4 president]

5 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

I'm going to quote you as you have the most I agree with.

 

I too am OK with how the RB was put on a lower priority than the lines.  That is a good philosophy. But I also have an issue with the players taken and the overall draft value in reference to the bigger picture.

 

My biggest issue with this draft is that Ballard used 2 extremely high picks on 2 defensive line players (I didn't like the players, well I like Turay just not in the 2nd, but that aside) in a draft that wasn't deep in defensive line talent (especially end) and right before next years draft which is going to be loaded with defensive line talent.  This seemed extremely short sighted to me and was forcing picks instead of just taking what the draft gives you.  If you truly are drafting for the future then lets take what the draft is loaded in, than take oddball players to get help on a spot you have no bodies for (DE).  This type of contradiction is worrying for a GM who keeps the mantra of the draft will be his main source of talent.  That is a huge red flag for me.

 

Aside from that I to liked a lot of other players.  Smith was a 4th round pick in my book and Connor Williams was a 1st round graded player at a position of need.  That skip made no sense.   The corners that were available were insane and all seem to be playing good roles for their respective teams.  I was completely fine with Leonard but the rest of the second round was a total embarrassing mismanagement of resources and I'm pretty sure we will be feeling the effects of those waste of picks in a years time when we are either A. taking more DE's or B. not taking DE's in a stacked class because we already took mediocre ones in a terrible class.

I feel the same. Every pick in the 2nd were major reaches. We could have and should have gotten at least 3 good starters with our 4 1st round picks. Instead we got 1. 

[lollygagger8]

20 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

I feel the same. Every pick in the 2nd were major reaches. We could have and should have gotten at least 3 good starters with our 4 1st round picks. Instead we got 1. 

 

Wait, when did the Colts have 4 1st round picks? 

[Four2itus]

Point? We hashed this ad nauseum before the draft. (Every year practically). We have yet determined the effectiveness of last years approach. Is it the need to again state that the team is doing or not doing what one wants?

 

 

[Fluke_33]

12 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Wait, when did the Colts have 4 1st round picks? 

i think he meant over the last 4 years.

[Four2itus]

12 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Wait, when did the Colts have 4 1st round picks? 

That.......would have been awesome.

1 minute ago, Fluke_33 said:

i think he meant over the last 4 years.

So Ballard has picked for 4 years for us?

[Fluke_33]

2 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

That.......would have been awesome.

So Ballard has picked for 4 years for us?

maybe he meant 4 second rounders.  I dont' know.  its what i thought when i first read it.  hahaha

 

But it doesnt make sense because we got all but one starter out of our last 4 first rounders.  

[MPStack]

Question? When are the Colts going to get one of those awesome RBs everyone says you can find in the 3-5 RDs?

[DougDew]

I would have taken the offered trade down with BUFF to #12 with the thought of taking McGlinchey.  But I would have been skewered because McGlinchey went 3 picks after Nelson.  So I would have taken Isiah Wynn, who now has a torn achillies.

 

I agree with the idea of not taking a RB with an early pick this draft.

[Flash7]

9 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Question? When are the Colts going to get one of those awesome RBs everyone says you can find in the 3-5 RDs?

I’ve been hearing that forever.

 

Don’t you know, “RBs are a dime a dozen and you can find a good one in the 5th or 6th round.” They’ll provide a few examples (exception to the rule) while completely negating the fact that hundreds of late round RBs go unnoticed and fall out of the league, which is the norm.

 

Colts fan should have a better perspective considering the last two effective running backs we’ve had were high draft picks, James and Adai , (although Darn it Donald was a miss).

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

 

My problem with the draft was not that we didn't spend high enough pick on a RB. My problem was that IMO we spent two second round picks on players I personally didn't have close to second round value on(Smith and Lewis). I was begging for us to take one of Landry(will be a beast for the Titans), Josh Jackson(already looks like a starting quality CB AND was a perfect system fit), Connor Williams - much better prospect than Braden Smith IMO and surprise surprise... he took a starting spot on a strong Dallas line from day 1). 

 

But back on the RB - the sweet spot for drafting a RB seems to be around rounds 2-to-4. I'm OK with fortifying both O-line and D-line with the early picks as a matter of strategy. 

Agreed about our LATE seconds.  I liked our early seconds in Leonard and Smith, but could have filled more holes with higher talent with the others.  Maybe even a RB with one of them, but I recall not really liking any of them that much.

[That Guy]

19 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Question? When are the Colts going to get one of those awesome RBs everyone says you can find in the 3-5 RDs?

We can't find a bell cow, but we can sure build a herd.  Mack was a 4, Turbin was a 4, Hines was a 4, Wilkins was a 5.

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, That Guy said:

We can't find a bell cow, but we can sure build a herd.  Mack was a 4, Turbin was a 4, Hines was a 4, Wilkins was a 5.

 

Four guys with stories! 

[aaron11]

i would have been fine with one over turay or lewis

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

i would have been fine with one over turay or lewis

Time will tell, but Guice was there for the taking! (Pre Injury)

[BProland85]

I wasn’t as high on Lewis and Turay in the 2nd, although I do like Turay’s upside. He’s just so raw.

 

I would have preferred taking a CB with one of those 2nd rounders. Donte Jackson from LSU I was high on. 

 

As for RB, I was fine waiting to draft one until rounds 4 and 5. 

 

 

[jvan1973]

26 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

I’ve been hearing that forever.

 

Don’t you know, “RBs are a dime a dozen and you can find a good one in the 5th or 6th round.” They’ll provide a few examples (exception to the rule) while completely negating the fact that hundreds of late round RBs go unnoticed and fall out of the league, which is the norm.

 

Colts fan should have a better perspective considering the last two effective running backs we’ve had were high draft picks, James and Adai , (although Darn it Donald was a miss).

Dominic Rhodes

[Fisticuffs111]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

My problem with the draft was not that we didn't spend high enough pick on a RB. My problem was that IMO we spent two second round picks on players I personally didn't have close to second round value on(Smith and Lewis). I was begging for us to take one of Landry(will be a beast for the Titans), Josh Jackson(already looks like a starting quality CB AND was a perfect system fit), Connor Williams - much better prospect than Braden Smith IMO and surprise surprise... he took a starting spot on a strong Dallas line from day 1). 

Ah man, this exactly. Not to derail the thread topic too much, and what's done is done and all that, but how Ballard went about that 2nd round never really sat right with me. Not that I'm bringing out my pitchforks over it or anything, but we could've made out of that second round like bandits.

Would've loved to have one of Landry, Jackson, or Williams as opposed to Smith. Not that he's disappointed or anything, just that I, like so many others here, had those three guys at the top of their wish list. Plus I've been kinda vocal on how I wasn't too excited about the Turay/Lewis picks, but it is what it is.

But on the specific topic of this thread, I'm fine with having not spent a pick on RB too early. I subscribe to RB being an easier position to fill, at least in terms of other positions, but I'm not too picky of where Ballard takes one.

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Ah man, this exactly. Not to derail the thread topic too much, and what's done is done and all that, but how Ballard went about that 2nd round still never really sat right with me. Not that I'm bringing out my pitchforks over it or anything, but we could've made out of that second round like bandits.

Would've loved to have one of Landry, Jackson, or Williams as opposed to Smith. Not that he's disappointed or anything, just that I, like so many others here, had those three guys at the top of their wish list. Plus I've been kinda vocal on how I wasn't too excited about the Turay/Lewis picks, but it is what it is.

But on the specific topic of this thread, I'm fine with having not spent a pick on RB too early. I subscribe to RB being an easier position to fill, at least in terms of other positions, but I'm not too picky of where Ballard takes one.

Landry and Jackson were both in the top 10 of my board(as was Hurst, but I can understand not taking him if his health was as bad as it seemed on draft day). Connor Williams was no. 12 on my board too.... so yeah... I didn't love our second round picks much. 

 

[Shadow_Creek]

i wonder what round edge was taken in?

[TheMarine]

Edge: 4th pick 1st round if memory serves

Adrian Foster: Undrafted

[Surge89]

8 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Ah man, this exactly. Not to derail the thread topic too much, and what's done is done and all that, but how Ballard went about that 2nd round never really sat right with me. We could've made out of that second round like bandits. And if we're gonna build through the draft so heavily, we have to have an excellent draft here and there. Would've loved to have one of Landry, Jackson, or Williams as opposed to Smith. Not that he's disappointed but those three seemed to be favorites in many fans eyes. Not to mention I wasn't too big on the Turay/Lewis picks, but it is what it is, not bringing out the pitchforks or anything.

But on the specific topic of this thread, I'm fine with having not spent a pick on RB too early. I subscribe to RB being an easier position to fill, at least in terms of other positions, but I'm not too picky of where Ballard takes one.

 

As far as players are concerned I hated the Turay pick.  To me we already took a player exactly like him last year and he needed time to develop.  Not pick a similar player with a higher pick and force unnecessary pressure.  I like Turay a lot going into the draft but I felt he was much to raw with too many questions to take in the first three rounds of the draft (you probably could convince me on the third as that is how much I liked him).

 

Smith was a pick that was just a mystery. You have a proven LT at a big school with excellent tape sitting in the second round and you desperately need tackles but you go with the athletic guard?  To top it off (lets just say) if guard was a more pressing situation in Ballard's mind Williams had no issues playing guard in fact some were already saying he should move there at the next level.  That frustrates me beyond reason.  

 

The reason why this is such a big deal to me is that you can preach that you want to build your team via the draft but the most important rounds are the top 3 rounds.  And if the draft is giving you great players but not at the spots you want you still take the great players.  That is how you build a deep team.  I'd much rather have Corner and oline as a strength then have an average dline a weak oline and weak corners.   Just makes no sense to me.  Heck even taking a RB would have been awesome.  I'd take a strong RB stable than what we have now.  But maybe that is just me. 

 

 

[A8bil]

The fallacy of picking up great backs in mid-rounds.  The truth is that when a difference maker at RB comes along, he gets taken in the 1st round.  When a difference maker is not available, mid to late round picks are used to pick up flawed RBs....that doesn't mean that those RBs cannot have an impact, but they have to overcome their flaws and the likelihood is that they don't pan out.   Mack for example needs to stay healthy and learn to run between the tackles consistently.  

 

IN terms of using a high pick for a RB...my mantra is that the game is won in the trenches.  A great offensive line makes an avg running game and passing game look better.  A great defensive line makes the LBs and DBs look like all pros.  Those 3-4th round RBs are more than serviceable when running behind a great offensive line in a well balanced offense. Build the lines first.

 

 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Surge89 said:

 

I'm going to quote you as you have the most I agree with.

 

I too am OK with how the RB was put on a lower priority than the lines.  That is a good philosophy. But I also have an issue with the players taken and the overall draft value in reference to the bigger picture.

 

My biggest issue with this draft is that Ballard used 2 extremely high picks on 2 defensive line players (I didn't like the players, well I like Turay just not in the 2nd, but that aside) in a draft that wasn't deep in defensive line talent (especially end) and right before next years draft which is going to be loaded with defensive line talent.  This seemed extremely short sighted to me and was forcing picks instead of just taking what the draft gives you.  If you truly are drafting for the future then lets take what the draft is loaded in, than take oddball players to get help on a spot you have no bodies for (DE).  This type of contradiction is worrying for a GM who keeps the mantra of the draft will be his main source of talent.  That is a huge red flag for me.

 

Aside from that I to liked a lot of other players.  Smith was a 4th round pick in my book and Connor Williams was a 1st round graded player at a position of need.  That skip made no sense.   The corners that were available were insane and all seem to be playing good roles for their respective teams.  I was completely fine with Leonard but the rest of the second round was a total embarrassing mismanagement of resources and I'm pretty sure we will be feeling the effects of those waste of picks in a years time when we are either A. taking more DE's or B. not taking DE's in a stacked class because we already took mediocre ones in a terrible class.

 

Man...this is spot on. I think Ballard pass over SEVERAL more talented players in the 2nd round in his quest to target certain positions. It made little sense to me that he had have the "last starting G" after drafting one at #6...and it made even less sense to double-dip on DEs in a weak class...specifically to bring in depth/role players for the DL (as Ballard has said). Just not a good use of resources. If there was ever a time to draft BPA...having FOUR 2nd round picks would be that time. 

 

He also did this last year when he drafted Basham.

 

The issues at RB and WR woes are a byproduct of his approach. He could have snagged Christian Kirk...and there would be no discussion about this team not having a WR2. He could have snagged Guice at the end of the round (hopefully he doesn't hurt his knee here). It's not so much the individual players...it's the overall approach of position over talent.

[Surge89]

7 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Man...this is spot on. I think Ballard pass over SEVERAL more talented players in the 2nd round in his quest to target certain positions. It made little sense to me that he had have the "last starting G" after drafting one at #6...and it made even less sense to double-dip on DEs in a weak class...specifically to bring in depth/role players for the DL (as Ballard has said). Just not a good use of resources. If there was ever a time to draft BPA...having FOUR 2nd round picks would be that time. 

 

He also did this last year when he drafted Basham.

 

The issues at RB and WR woes are a byproduct of his approach. He could have snagged Christian Kirk...and there would be no discussion about this team not having a WR2. He could have snagged Guice at the end of the round (hopefully he doesn't hurt his knee here). It's not so much the individual players...it's the overall approach of position over talent.

 

It goes beyond that.  I'm perfectly fine not knowing who our WR2 is if we have a solid 5 starters on the oline and have a deep Corner stable.  That is in essence what he passed on. 

 

So now we have a decent Dline (it isn't going to be a pass rushing force, but it will hold) a lacking corner stable where we had to trade for one, and an oline who STILL has questions even though we have put 3 first rounders 2 second rounders and 3 thirds draft stock into it.  That is just sad. 

[BeanDiasucci]

2 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

I probably would have used one of the later 2nd round picks on Guice.

 

Of course hindsight is 20/20 with his injury, but that is what I would have done at the time.

[shasta519]

I think there are several topics in this thread. So I wll try to address each one.

 

Do I think a team should invest day two pick in the RB position? Absolutely...especially when you have FIVE picks in the top 64. These past couple of drafts have been incredibly deep at the position. And when you pass on that opportunity...you end up with second-tier players. Colts did the same thing in the deep 2015 group...and apparently nothing has changed. A RBBC is a solid approach...but it needs to have talent. So you either draft it or you trade for it (which is what PHI did last season).

 

This also applies to the WR position as well. The WR woes are very real...and directly linked to the approach that has been taken.

 

Do I think Ballard has maximized his draft picks with talent? No.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Some really great spot on posts in this thread. Especially about the path we took in the 2nd round. 

[shasta519]

9 minutes ago, Surge89 said:

 

It goes beyond that.  I'm perfectly fine not knowing who our WR2 is if we have a solid 5 starters on the oline and have a deep Corner stable.  That is in essence what he passed on. 

 

So now we have a decent Dline (it isn't going to be a pass rushing force, but it will hold) a lacking corner stable where we had to trade for one, and an oline who STILL has questions even though we have put 3 first rounders 2 second rounders and 3 thirds draft stock into it.  That is just sad. 

 

Yeah...I am just referencing skill positions because they were part of that more talented group of players...and the issues there are a byproduct of the overall approach (much like the issues at CB).

 

IF Ballard had snagged Jackson, it's a much better 2nd round...or even Oliver. I never really liked the Wilson pick...and would have loved to be able to snag both Jackson and Oliver in this draft.

[LockeDown]

Ballard said he puts a priority on picking linemen.  Smith, Lewis and Nelson very early in the draft.  I’m sure he thinks that will pay greater dividends than other suggestions mentioned in this thread.

[Dingus McGirt]

Here's hoping we can beat this dead horse, yet again, after the Cincy game.

[Barry Sears]

Well, hopefully Chris Ballard will read this Forum before drafting next year so he won't whiff on any picks and we get all future pro bowlers in our draft.

 

3 pre-season games and everyone is giving up on our draft class already.

 

Building though the draft takes time and some players don't reach their potential for 2-3 years.

 

Patience is the key.  I'm no expert and don't pretend to be...I trust that Ballard and our scouts are doing what they are getting paid to do.  If they fail, we'll find out and Irsay will go hire a different GM.

[Fisticuffs111]

37 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

Well, hopefully Chris Ballard will read this Forum before drafting next year so he won't whiff on any picks and we get all future pro bowlers in our draft.

 

3 pre-season games and everyone is giving up on our draft class already.

 

Building though the draft takes time and some players don't reach their potential for 2-3 years.

 

Patience is the key.  I'm no expert and don't pretend to be...I trust that Ballard and our scouts are doing what they are getting paid to do.  If they fail, we'll find out and Irsay will go hire a different GM.

I don't think anybody's giving up on this draft class. I actually think it'll be a good class for the most part. People are just explaining how they thought it could've been knocked out of the park or even a historic class. And that was always the thing being said leading up to the draft by everybody here, that this class could be a real home run. Plus it's not like the guys being mentioned (Landry, Jackson, Williams) would've been good picks only in hindsight, they were all very highly regarded.

And who knows, it very well could be. We won't know until we know. I really like Nelson, loved the Leonard and Wilkins picks, and I think Smith could eventually be a decent starter. And maybe Turay and Lewis will end up being good-great players.

[shasta519]

23 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

Well, hopefully Chris Ballard will read this Forum before drafting next year so he won't whiff on any picks and we get all future pro bowlers in our draft.

 

3 pre-season games and everyone is giving up on our draft class already.

 

Building though the draft takes time and some players don't reach their potential for 2-3 years.

 

Patience is the key.  I'm no expert and don't pretend to be...I trust that Ballard and our scouts are doing what they are getting paid to do.  If they fail, we'll find out and Irsay will go hire a different GM.

 

I hope he does read this forum...cause he doesn't return my calls or texts.

[shasta519]

14 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

I don't think anybody's giving up on this draft class. I actually think it'll be a good class for the most part. Secondly, it's not like we're talking about taking players who only looked good in hindsight (Landry, Williams, Jackson), they're all guys who were viewed very highly pre-draft.

I think people are just expressing how they thought the draft could've been knocked out of the park or an even historic class. And that was always the thing being said before the draft, that this draft class could be a home run.

And who knows, it very well could be. I really like Nelson, loved the Leonard and Wilkins picks, and I think Smith could eventually be a decent starter. And maybe Turay and Lewis will end up being good-great players.

 

Yeah...this is really just a discussion about day two...because of the unique situation of having so many picks there.

 

I don't think anyone is giving up on the draft picks...these are just initial opinions (one that I have had since the draft). And nothing has really changed...unfortunately (except Leonard has started to change my mind). But there's plenty of time.

 

Not that it means anything...but my brother-in-law, who is a diehard Panthers fan and the biggest draftnik I personally know, texted me after the Lewis pick...and just said "sorry" in regards to the 2nd round picks overall....haha.  And our opinion of players often differs. So for both of us to not like it stuck out to me.

[Luck 4 president]

3 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Wait, when did the Colts have 4 1st round picks? 

Sorry meant 2nd round

[DaColts85]

39 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

Well, hopefully Chris Ballard will read this Forum before drafting next year so he won't whiff on any picks and we get all future pro bowlers in our draft.

 

3 pre-season games and everyone is giving up on our draft class already.

 

Building though the draft takes time and some players don't reach their potential for 2-3 years.

 

Patience is the key.  I'm no expert and don't pretend to be...I trust that Ballard and our scouts are doing what they are getting paid to do.  If they fail, we'll find out and Irsay will go hire a different GM.

I wonder if all these great minds gave up on Peyton Manning after his first 3 preseason games. I mean his first real game he threw 3 picks and had a completion percentage of 56.  Man we should have benched him or fired Polian right?

 

Good lord people you expect the roster to be dominate after 2 drafts with a new GM and scheme in place now.