How many years does it take to determine if a qb is a bust or the next franchise guy?

[Stephen]

How long does it take to know if a qb is a bust?

[Tsarquise]

I think the during third season, you should know. 

[Indyfan4life]

3rd or 4th season. If a QB doesn’t get it by that time, then it’s time to move on. 

[IinD]

30 minutes ago, Tsarquise said:

I think the during third season, you should know. 

Exactly what I think. The QB deserves one full season just to learn to be a pro, one to hone his craft and you should be able to see if they can consistently play in that third year.

 

If you're seeing dumb habits or play at this point, that's who they are.

[csmopar]

41 minutes ago, Stephen said:

How long does it take to know if a qb is a bust?

Best case, 2, typical 3-4 to confirm he’s the long term answer. 
 

busts can be quite obvious based on how they practice or what not. Ryan leaf was obvious in seconds as was Johnny football

[Jackie Daytona]

46 minutes ago, Stephen said:

How long does it take to know if a qb is a bust?

Depends on his play and consistency 

[Stephen]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Best case, 2, typical 3-4 to confirm he’s the long term answer. 
 

busts can be quite obvious based on how they practice or what not. Ryan leaf was obvious in seconds as was Johnny football

It was a little different with rg3 though. Wrong system and injuries cost him

[coming on strong]

you can usually tell even by the rookie year because you will see flashes or a big game once in a while   .  it could still be a ugly year for the QB but you can see signs early  .   look at joe burrow his first year goes 3-13 but you saw the flashes in some games .  against us burrow was lighting it up but rivers came back .

[Jason_]

Week 2 of his rookie season

[csmopar]

21 minutes ago, Stephen said:

It was a little different with rg3 though. Wrong system and injuries cost him

Ehh I called RG3 as a bust before he was even drafted. He just relied way too much on his legs. 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

1 hour ago, J@son said:

Week 2 of his rookie season

see you on 9/17  

[GoColts8818]

It all depends on the QB.  Peyton showed signs his rookie year and exploded his second year.  Andrew Luck showed it from his first pass.  Pat Mahomes showed it when he started starting games.  Josh Allen showed signs early but took a couple of years to get there,  Some guys have it from the word to others take development.  I’ll say this if by the end of year three you are still waiting from him to prove himself to be a franchise guy it’s probably not going to happen.  That’s why the way rookie contracts work now is almost ideal for finding out if you have a gem or a bust at QB.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

In the 3rd quarter of the 9th week in his third season. 

[jvan1973]

10 hours ago, J@son said:

Week 2 of his rookie season

I think you're giving them too much time tbh.

[Nickster]

3 or 4, but sometimes less than 1.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I always give them 2 years if they play 2 full seasons coming out of college. Also, 2 years if they sit for a year then play 2 full seasons. Overall in the history of the NFL, after year 2/or 2 years of starting you can tell if the guy is good or had major improvement compared to his rookie year. If in 2 years of full-time play and the guy stinks than we know he is probably a bust. I never expect a rookie to be good or great, although it has happened, Andrew Luck was.

 

-This is not all cases but most. 

[rockywoj]

Definitively, 5.  Ideally, 3.

[HoosierHero]

I feel like if Richardson starts the majority of the season and come draft time we don’t have forum after forum post after post clamoring to trade up and the general consensus is that we’re good rolling with Richardson that’s probably a good sign.
Obviously we’re gonna have a few that will wanna trade up no matter what. 
 

[Smonroe]

12 hours ago, csmopar said:

Ehh I called RG3 as a bust before he was even drafted. He just relied way too much on his legs. 

Wasnt he rookie of the year?  

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Smonroe said:

Wasnt he rookie of the year?  

Yes he was, he was a rare bust but injuries derailed his career.

 

I always say by the end of year 2 most have an idea whether someone is going to good or bad.

 

I will name some of the greats and within 2 years you knew they would be great:

 

Tom Brady won a SB in year 2.

 

Peyton Manning - struggled his rookie season, then went 13-3 in year 2.

 

Joe Montana after just a few starts in his first 2 years, won a SB in year 3. In Year 2 he improved over his rookie season. Everyone had an idea he would be good if not great.

 

Ben Roethlisberger won a SB in year 2.

 

Dan Marino won MVP in year 2 and went to a SB.

 

Troy Aikman went 1-15 his rookie season, then was much better in year 2 going 7-9. Everyone knew he would be great at that point. He won a SB in year 4 and 5.

 

Aaron Rodgers improved a lot in his 2nd year of starting, won a SB in year 3.

 

Patrick Mahomes won a SB in year 2 of starting.

 

-Key examples of by the end of year 2, everyone knew these QB's would be great.

 

 

 

 

[IinD]

3 hours ago, Nickster said:

3 or 4, but sometimes less than 1.

This one is so true though.

 

You'll know if you've got a train wreck on your hands in one year.

[Stephen]

42 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yes he was, he was a rare bust but injuries derailed his career.

 

I always say by the end of year 2 most have an idea whether someone is going to good or bad.

 

I will name some of the greats and within 2 years you knew they would be great:

 

Tom Brady won a SB in year 2.

 

Peyton Manning - struggled his rookie season, then went 13-3 in year 2.

 

Joe Montana after just a few starts in his first 2 years, won a SB in year 3. In Year 2 he improved over his rookie season. Everyone had an idea he would be good if not great.

 

Ben Roethlisberger won a SB in year 2.

 

Dan Marino won MVP in year 2 and went to a SB.

 

Troy Aikman went 1-15 his rookie season, then was much better in year 2 going 7-9. Everyone knew he would be great at that point. He won a SB in year 4 and 5.

 

Aaron Rodgers improved a lot in his 2nd year of starting, won a SB in year 3.

 

Patrick Mahomes won a SB in year 2 of starting.

 

-Key examples of by the end of year 2, everyone knew these QB's would be great.

 

 

 

 

I think seeing how they handle being down big and late game situations is key to. Like luck his rookie year versus detriot and greenbay. Normally with great qbs they will flash the ability to bring you back in games you have no buisiness winning.

[wig]

Hot take, but I think you can tell right away if they have the potential. 

[Nesjan3]

Depends different organizations show different levels of patience, also there is so many variables involved so its hard to say really. Like Zack Wilson. I think every one knew within the first 10 appearances that this guy was not going to make it. Then there is Josh Allen who struggled for 2 years, but nobody really knew. There was flashes of promise and the Bills stuck with him and now look.

[ADnum1]

I thought RG3 and Johnny Manziel would be successful in the league.

 

Both were very good QB's coming out of college.

 

RG3 ran around too much and took bone crushing hits on the sidelines which led to too many injuries.

 

Of course Johnny suffered from alcoholism and ran around too much as well leading to too many injuries.

 

 

[stitches]

Sometimes busts are easy and quick to determine. Determining franchise QBs might take 2-3 years. IMO if by the end of year 3 you are not sure if this is your guy, you probably should start searching for the next guy.

[#12.]

Thinking of elite/HOF QBs, most of them showed something fairly quickly, but a standard starter/franchise guy might take a little longer.

[TimetobringDfence!]

1 hour ago, wig said:

Hot take, but I think you can tell right away if they have the potential. 

I agree you will see plays that make you say if they do that consistently we are going to be hard to beat. 

[crazycolt1]

16 hours ago, Stephen said:

It was a little different with rg3 though. Wrong system and injuries cost him

 

15 hours ago, csmopar said:

Ehh I called RG3 as a bust before he was even drafted. He just relied way too much on his legs. 

RG3 was not really a bust.  He was a victim of Mike Shanahan. 

[sb41champs]

Provided the QB gets sufficient opportunities to play in regular season games - I concur that by year 3 it's a "fish or cut bait" proposition.

[Fluke_33]

3 hours ago, rockywoj said:

Definitively, 5.  Ideally, 3.

On point 

[Stephen]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

 

RG3 was not really a bust.  He was a victim of Mike Shanahan. 

True he didnt fit his scheme and brought him back too early from injury. If rg3 could have been better from the pocket he could have extended his career

[colts89]

3-4 years

[Smonroe]

24 minutes ago, Stephen said:

True he didnt fit his scheme and brought him back too early from injury. If rg3 could have been better from the pocket he could have extended his career

I hope Shane doesn’t run AR5 too much.  I don’t care how big you are, those hits mount up.

 

Cam was a big dude.  Andrew too.  

[csmopar]

3 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

 

RG3 was not really a bust.  He was a victim of Mike Shanahan. 

Eh maybe. Maybe not, but the fact of the matter is, he never lived up to number two overall potential. 

1 hour ago, Stephen said:

True he didnt fit his scheme and brought him back too early from injury. If rg3 could have been better from the pocket he could have extended his career

Which is why it intrigues me that AR talks about wanting to turn into more of a pocket passer than he is now

[Smonroe]

28 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Eh maybe. Maybe not, but the fact of the matter is, he never lived up to number two overall potential. 

Which is why it intrigues me that AR talks about wanting to turn into more of a pocket passer than he is now

Good. We don’t want him to be a run first guy.  But we want the D’s to fear his threat.  Kind of like Mahomes.   
 

Run first QBs don’t last.  We need 10-15 years from him.  

[NFLfan]

On 5/19/2023 at 8:39 PM, Stephen said:

How long does it take to know if a qb is a bust?

 

I don't think there is one answer. As someone else noted, there are too many variables that go into what makes a QB/player successful.  Some QBs don't even start until year 3 or 4. How many years did Aaron Rodgers sit before he became the starter? No one was calling him a bust after two years in the league and not playing. Some have defensive-minded coaches that like to play safe and don't allow a player to throw much, thus affecting his stats. So much more...

 

[NFLfan]

21 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

Depends different organizations show different levels of patience, also there is so many variables involved so its hard to say really. Like Zack Wilson. I think every one knew within the first 10 appearances that this guy was not going to make it. Then there is Josh Allen who struggled for 2 years, but nobody really knew. There was flashes of promise and the Bills stuck with him and now look.

 

Some were calling Allen a bust after year one and calling RG3 a star after one year.

 

Give players at least 3 years of starting to show what they can do, just as it is best to judge a draft after three full years.

 

[NewColtsFan]

Interesting thread.   I’m pleased to see most seem to get it.   3-4 years is the answer for most, but not all.   
 

There are exception to the rules at both extremes.   Guys like Peyton and Luck and a few others you knew pretty quickly.   
 

And at the other extreme, we all knew that guys like Leaf and Josh Rosen and Johnny Manzel seem overwhelmed almost from the start.   Zack Wilson seems so immature, you have to wonder….
 

Bu the vast majority are going to take 3-4 years for their minds to catch up with their physical skill so the game can slow down and their talent can shine.   I always root for quarterbacks who need more time, better teammates and better coaching.   I love stories like Geno Smith figuring things out in roughly year 9 of his career.   Good for him!    He earned it!    

[throwing BBZ]

 

 Put a guy with a well coached team with a strong roster and they might shine later in year one and in year two. 

 Put him in Cleveland, lol.