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WR: Draft or FA??


AustexColt

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The draft is WR heavy, so definitely we will draft one. No doubt about it.... however...

A good FA with some solid experience and coaching maybe the favorable way to go with an experienced QB like Rivers. I believe TY, Inman, Hines, Campbell, Paschal and Doyle will sync up with Rivers quickly. All it takes is repetition. I think that is why Reich expanded his WR coaching staff to get the younger ones to see the plays in the same way Rivers does. Rivers is a rhythm passer just like Peyton, so he releases and places the ball way before the WR makes his final cut. (Rewatch Peyton Bronco's tapes) They have to be on the same mindset.

 

Last year for Brissett to establish that he can be an elite QB. He can learn from Rivers. He lacks the confidence to release the ball and trust what he sees.  Unless Brissett acquires this confidence he will be a back up QB. That is my take.

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10 minutes ago, AustexColt said:

The draft is WR heavy, so definitely we will draft one. No doubt about it.... however...

A good FA with some solid experience and coaching maybe the favorable way to go with an experienced QB like Rivers. I believe TY, Inman, Hines, Campbell, Paschal and Doyle will sync up with Rivers quickly. All it takes is repetition. I think that is why Reich expanded his WR coaching staff to get the younger ones to see the plays in the same way Rivers does. Rivers is a rhythm passer just like Peyton, so he releases and places the ball way before the WR makes his final cut. (Rewatch Peyton Bronco's tapes) They have to be on the same mindset.

 

Last year for Brissett to establish that he can be an elite QB. He can learn from Rivers. He lacks the confidence to release the ball and trust what he sees.  Unless Brissett acquires this confidence he will be a back up QB. That is my take.

Free agency us almost over. 
 

This would have been a good thread topic 2-3 weeks ago.    Nit sure why you picked now to bring it up?

 

The answer, especially this year,  is the draft.  

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This was not a good year for FA WRs in general. At the same time, one of the better years for draft depth. 

 

I don't think our WR unit is near as bad as some doom and gloomers feel. Even an old Rivers will look noticeably better than his last year behind our OL, and noticeably better than Brissett was last year. 

 

IMO, all we need is less bad luck from the health gods, and a quality X with 44 or 75. I can't see both TY and Campbell both struggling with injury all year long. A good X in the draft to pair with a reliable Pascal on the other side is fine. That's a decent 4, and guys like Fountain could prove to be a good option and press for snaps. We can flash back to 2018 when a good QB made lemonade out of guys like Rogers and utilized a rook like Hines, to know that a QB like Rivers with a good/quick time to throw and good anticipation can raise the level of play of average to mediocre pass catchers. 

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I was really hoping for both.  I know this is a deep WR draft, & the Colts almost have to take at least one.  But I also really wanted Emmanuel Sanders.  I know he's getting older, but he's been really good everywhere he's played. He's been in SBs w/3 different teams, and it won't shock me if the Saints make it 4.  

 

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33 minutes ago, AustexColt said:

The draft is WR heavy, so definitely we will draft one. No doubt about it.... however...

A good FA with some solid experience and coaching maybe the favorable way to go with an experienced QB like Rivers. I believe TY, Inman, Hines, Campbell, Paschal and Doyle will sync up with Rivers quickly. All it takes is repetition. I think that is why Reich expanded his WR coaching staff to get the younger ones to see the plays in the same way Rivers does. Rivers is a rhythm passer just like Peyton, so he releases and places the ball way before the WR makes his final cut. (Rewatch Peyton Bronco's tapes) They have to be on the same mindset.

 

Last year for Brissett to establish that he can be an elite QB. He can learn from Rivers. He lacks the confidence to release the ball and trust what he sees.  Unless Brissett acquires this confidence he will be a back up QB. That is my take.


Both, we literally have no depth currently. I think they need to sign a FA and draft a WR. 

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Inman's not currently on the roster.  Though, I'd not be shocked to see us bring back him, Marcus Johnson or Rogers as we know they can be dependable players and both know our system.

 

Current FA WRs of note who are still available are: Demaryius Thomas (IMO, he's washed up), Geronimo Allison (had 34 receptions for GB last year, but is 6'3" 205 lbs.),  Rashard Higgins (had 39 receptions in 2018 w/ CLE and only played one game last year), Josh Gordon (doubt with his baggage that Ballard would consider him), Tavon Austin (a burner who for some reason fell off after leaving the Rams), and Demarcus Robinson (at 6'3" 205 lbs. he had 32 receptions last year on a loaded KC team -- Ballard has some familiarity with him from his time in KC).  

 

Of all those names, Robinson is really the only one who intrigues me.  Wouldn't shock me if we could bring him in cheap.

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4 minutes ago, TonyBungee said:

I was really hoping for both.  I know this is a deep WR draft, & the Colts almost have to take at least one.  But I also really wanted Emmanuel Sanders.  I know he's getting older, but he's been really good everywhere he's played. He's been in SBs w/3 different teams, and it won't shock me if the Saints make it 4.  

He's a Z/slot, so unless you're willing to give up on TY and Campbell, and shell out dollars to overload that side, it's just not really practical. At least not at 8M a year when he'd be fighting for snaps vs TY/Campbell. The real need, or big hole, is X.

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1 hour ago, AustexColt said:

The draft is WR heavy, so definitely we will draft one. No doubt about it.... however...

A good FA with some solid experience and coaching maybe the favorable way to go with an experienced QB like Rivers. I believe TY, Inman, Hines, Campbell, Paschal and Doyle will sync up with Rivers quickly. All it takes is repetition. I think that is why Reich expanded his WR coaching staff to get the younger ones to see the plays in the same way Rivers does. Rivers is a rhythm passer just like Peyton, so he releases and places the ball way before the WR makes his final cut. (Rewatch Peyton Bronco's tapes) They have to be on the same mindset.

 

Last year for Brissett to establish that he can be an elite QB. He can learn from Rivers. He lacks the confidence to release the ball and trust what he sees.  Unless Brissett acquires this confidence he will be a back up QB. That is my take.

 

 

I don't believe Innman has been resigned for 2020.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

This was not a good year for FA WRs in general. At the same time, one of the better years for draft depth. 

 

I don't think our WR unit is near as bad as some doom and gloomers feel. Even an old Rivers will look noticeably better than his last year behind our OL, and noticeably better than Brissett was last year. 

 

IMO, all we need is less bad luck from the health gods, and a quality X with 44 or 75. I can't see both TY and Campbell both struggling with injury all year long. A good X in the draft to pair with a reliable Pascal on the other side is fine. That's a decent 4, and guys like Fountain could prove to be a good option and press for snaps. We can flash back to 2018 when a good QB made lemonade out of guys like Rogers and utilized a rook like Hines, to know that a QB like Rivers with a good/quick time to throw and good anticipation can raise the level of play of average to mediocre pass catchers. 

I am excited to see how Pascal does with Rivers. I think he will flourish even more if he gets enough snaps. 

 

Just give me a big body WR in the draft and I like what we have.  We could also bring Johnson back as depth if we want.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

He's a Z/slot, so unless you're willing to give up on TY and Campbell, and shell out dollars to overload that side, it's just not really practical. At least not at 8M a year when he'd be fighting for snaps vs TY/Campbell. The real need, or big hole, is X.

I agree, which is why IMO it makes no sense for the Colts to burn the 34th pick on a WR (simply because this draft is supposedly "so deep" for WRs) UNLESS someone with size like Mims or Claypool is there at #34. Most of the updated projections I've seen now have Mims and even Claypool going before #34  (and Shenault's health and Higgins' speed both worry me).

 

Most if not all of the other top-tier guys are essentially replicating Campbell's skill set and I don't see Ballard picking another guy like that so high in the draft two years in a row. Especially when some other "big" receivers are likely to still be there at both #44 (hopefully Pittman) and #75 (possibly Peoples-Jones, or maybe even Gandy-Golden later on).

 

And for those who say "what about replacing TY? his health and his contract?" I'd say you can try to find another guy like that later on too: someone like Hamler, Duvernay, or maybe Hightower would likely still be there in later rounds.

 

If Ballard hangs on to #34 I would hope he goes full BPA, even it's not someone at a position of immediate need, such as OL or LB. In any case, I still have a feeling that some CB (or maybe safety) who should've been drafted in Round One will be there at #34, and I wouldn't mind adding someone like that to the roster to push the Colts' secondary.

 

I also wouldn't get bent out of shape if Ballard DID use a pick for a QB, but ideally not until Day 3, maybe in Round 6 or 7, if someone like McDonald or Montez is still there. Or maybe someone like Riley Neal would be available to sign as a free agent. But please use #34 for BPA, not the best WR left who might be redundant to both Hilton and Campbell, particularly when some promising receivers (especially big receivers) will likely be there with some of the Colts' later picks.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

Both

 

Sign DeMarcus Robinson and draft a guy in round 2.

 

Watkins is intriguing if released. Just not sure what the hold up is, if they plan to?

 

Maybe their trying to trade him?

I guess they are still trying to trade him but I find it hard to imagine a team would do a trade now.  They are in a negative cap position so I don't know how long they can hold off.  He would be a nice add if it happens. 

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

I am excited to see how Pascal does with Rivers. I think he will flourish even more if he gets enough snaps. 

 

Just give me a big body WR in the draft and I like what we have.  We could also bring Johnson back as depth if we want.

I think we need a legit X in the draft. That said, I think Pascal could be a very productive depth X and big slot. We run a fair amount of 2 X (one in slot) snaps, so he should get plenty of opportunity regardless. In short, love the guy, but he shouldn't be our primary guy opposite TY. 

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20 minutes ago, CelticColt said:

I agree, which is why IMO it makes no sense for the Colts to burn the 34th pick on a WR (simply because this draft is supposedly "so deep" for WRs) UNLESS someone with size like Mims or Claypool is there at #34. Most of the updated projections I've seen now have Mims and even Claypool going before #34  (and Shenault's health and Higgins' speed both worry me).

 

Most if not all of the other top-tier guys are essentially replicating Campbell's skill set and I don't see Ballard picking another guy like that so high in the draft two years in a row. Especially when some other "big" receivers are likely to still be there at both #44 (hopefully Pittman) and #75 (possibly Peoples-Jones, or maybe even Gandy-Golden later on).

 

And for those who say "what about replacing TY? his health and his contract?" I'd say you can try to find another guy like that later on too: someone like Hamler, Duvernay, or maybe Hightower would likely still be there in later rounds.

 

If Ballard hangs on to #34 I would hope he goes full BPA, even it's not someone at a position of immediate need, such as OL or LB. In any case, I still have a feeling that some CB (or maybe safety) who should've been drafted in Round One will be there at #34, and I wouldn't mind adding someone like that to the roster to push the Colts' secondary.

 

I also wouldn't get bent out of shape if Ballard DID use a pick for a QB, but ideally not until Day 3, maybe in Round 6 or 7, if someone like McDonald or Montez is still there. Or maybe someone like Riley Neal would be available to sign as a free agent. But please use #34 for BPA, not the best WR left who might be redundant to both Hilton and Campbell, particularly when some promising receivers (especially big receivers) will likely be there with some of the Colts' later picks.

Yup, nailed it. Most folks don't think about "who goes where", and what you need at certain WR positions (X, Z, traditional slot, big slot, deep sets, etc.). They just see flashy WR and forget about what we already have, the likelihood of giving up on existing players, etc... But who knows. Strange things always happen. For instance, we don't know about TY's current health, etc.. 

 

On QB, I think the only two options are take Love is somehow drops to 34 (doubt that happens), or take one at 75 or later if they like him. 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

This was not a good year for FA WRs in general. At the same time, one of the better years for draft depth. 

 

I don't think our WR unit is near as bad as some doom and gloomers feel. Even an old Rivers will look noticeably better than his last year behind our OL, and noticeably better than Brissett was last year. 

 

IMO, all we need is less bad luck from the health gods, and a quality X with 44 or 75. I can't see both TY and Campbell both struggling with injury all year long. A good X in the draft to pair with a reliable Pascal on the other side is fine. That's a decent 4, and guys like Fountain could prove to be a good option and press for snaps. We can flash back to 2018 when a good QB made lemonade out of guys like Rogers and utilized a rook like Hines, to know that a QB like Rivers with a good/quick time to throw and good anticipation can raise the level of play of average to mediocre pass catchers. 

 

Agreed, I also think we need to find a move tight end. They are also important in Reich's scheme. Limited options in both FA and draft though. Actually the tight end group is expected to be one of the strongest position groups in the 2021 draft.

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22 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Yup, nailed it. Most folks don't think about "who goes where", and what you need at certain WR positions (X, Z, traditional slot, big slot, deep sets, etc.). They just see flashy WR and forget about what we already have, the likelihood of giving up on existing players, etc... But who knows. Strange things always happen. For instance, we don't know about TY's current health, etc.. 

 

On QB, I think the only two options are take Love is somehow drops to 34 (doubt that happens), or take one at 75 or later if they like him. 

My only real point re: QBs was that, since the Colts have (last time I  looked) two 6th Round picks so close together, I wouldn't freak out if, say, the 2nd one went for a project guy like McDonald or Montez if he were still there.

 

I also wouldn't be upset if Ballard didn't select a QB with any of his picks this time around. For me, it's not a question of identifying potential "franchise" or "elite" QB prospects and imagining how the Colts might maneuver to get one. When Luck retired, I concluded that the team won't have a true "elite" QB any time soon and will have to find other ways to win games.

 

Fair enough; IIRC the Ravens won a couple of Super Bowls with non-elite QBs and nasty defenses. I assume Ballard may, at least partly, agree: to me that explains the trade for Buckner, and I even suspect that, had he not made that trade, he might have drafted someone like Kinlaw, not any of the QBs.

 

So for the time being I think Ballard will primarily keep trying to upgrade the defense (all 3 levels) through both FA and the draft, let Reich-Rivers (or Reich-Brissett if it comes to that) "game manage" an offense that with any luck features a Top 5 running game, and then see how that all plays out.

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24 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

 

Agreed, I also think we need to find a move tight end. They are also important in Reich's scheme. Limited options in both FA and draft though. Actually the tight end group is expected to be one of the strongest position groups in the 2021 draft.

I think a big X will impact or lessen the need for TE. They went after a big X last year (Funch), and had he stayed healthy, it would have definitely impacted TE use. I think a guy like Claypool would absolutely play a decent amount from the slot, and would be more or less a TE running the same routes etc. 

 

I also think the FO likes MAC more than some folks think. I'd absolutely love a guy like Kmet, but I just hate taking a TE early this year. There are several detached TEs with high upside that will be available in the mid rounds too. 

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42 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:


yeah, I don’t think it’s ironic that we haven’t addressed the position. More value and importance at other spots this free agency. 

We have a lot of solid depth, and a few holes. Some of the deeper holes filled with short term contracts so still a need, just not as urgent. I'm just really happy at Buckner. Not warm and fuzzy about CB, but happy we at least grabbed a guy pre-draft to give ourselves more options. Don't get me wrong, we still have a big need at X, but overall just not near as bad at WR in general. I'm going to light a nightly candle for the health gods though.. 

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I think a big X will impact or lessen the need for TE. They went after a big X last year (Funch), and had he stayed healthy, it would have definitely impacted TE use. I think a guy like Claypool would absolutely play a decent amount from the slot, and would be more or less a TE running the same routes etc. 

 

I also think the FO likes MAC more than some folks think. I'd absolutely love a guy like Kmet, but I just hate taking a TE early this year. There are several detached TEs with high upside that will be available in the mid rounds too. 

 

I like the kid from UCLA Devin Asiasi in the 4th round. I'm not enamored about drafting a TE in the 2nd either too.

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35 minutes ago, CelticColt said:

My only real point re: QBs was that, since the Colts have (last time I  looked) two 6th Round picks so close together, I wouldn't freak out if, say, the 2nd one went for a project guy like McDonald or Montez if he were still there.

QBs in the 6th and 7th have almost zero success rate, so not really a fan of going that late unless they are taking a flyer on a guy that dropped due to flags.

35 minutes ago, CelticColt said:

 

I also wouldn't be upset if Ballard didn't select a QB with any of his picks this time around. For me, it's not a question of identifying potential "franchise" or "elite" QB prospects and imagining how the Colts might maneuver to get one. When Luck retired, I concluded that the team won't have a true "elite" QB any time soon and will have to find other ways to win games.

I won't be bummed either. I think Rivers will be fine this year, and likely gets extended. He's going to love our OL, and he's going to come in with a big chip on his shoulder. Hines will be his best friend. 

35 minutes ago, CelticColt said:

Fair enough; IIRC the Ravens won a couple of Super Bowls with non-elite QBs and nasty defenses. I assume Ballard may, at least partly, agree: to me that explains the trade for Buckner, and I even suspect that, had he not made that trade, he might have drafted someone like Kinlaw, not any of the QBs.

I want no part in a game manager QB. And Flacco played well above game manager stats during that run. Buckner was a no brainer for anyone not named Burrow or Young IMO.

35 minutes ago, CelticColt said:

 

So for the time being I think Ballard will primarily keep trying to upgrade the defense (all 3 levels) through both FA and the draft, let Reich-Rivers (or Reich-Brissett if it comes to that) "game manage" an offense that with any luck features a Top 5 running game, and then see how that all plays out.

I was disappointed we didn't go DT last year. I would have taken one instead of trading back.

 

I want both sides of our O in the top 15. If you don't have balance, you're easy to defend. Same on D. I don't care if run-O is higher than pass-O, or vice versa, but both need to be top 15 and capable of winning when the other side gets shut down. And you have to have balance between O and D too. I think we're close to all that balance now with the adds of Buckner and Rivers. Need a few pieces to fill things out, but we've got potential now in all 4 units.

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11 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

 

I like the kid from UCLA Devin Asiasi in the 4th round. I'm not enamored about drafting a TE in the 2nd either too.

Asiasi was in one of my mocks. He's a good detached option if he can keep a handle on his weight. With proper motivation and S&C, I think he has a huge upside.

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28 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

QBs in the 6th and 7th have almost zero success rate, so not really a fan of going that late unless they are taking a flyer on a guy that dropped due to flags.

I won't be bummed either. I think Rivers will be fine this year, and likely gets extended. He's going to love our OL, and he's going to come in with a big chip on his shoulder. Hines will be his best friend. 

I want no part in a game manager QB. And Flacco played well above game manager stats during that run. Buckner was a no brainer for anyone not named Burrow or Young IMO.

I was disappointed we didn't go DT last year. I would have taken one instead of trading back.

 

I want both sides of our O in the top 15. If you don't have balance, you're easy to defend. Same on D. I don't care if run-O is higher than pass-O, or vice versa, but both need to be top 15 and capable of winning when the other side gets shut down. And you have to have balance between O and D too. I think we're close to all that balance now with the adds of Buckner and Rivers. Need a few pieces to fill things out, but we've got potential now in all 4 units.

QBs selected in very late rounds do have a low success rate, yes, but the same is true of some other positions. Once you approach pick #200 and beyond, it's usually a crap shoot. Kind of like some of the guys Ballard chose a year ago. But I'm not usually very worried or concerned about Day 3 picks if Day 2 goes well. You can still find good individual players on Day 3, but winning teams are primarily built during Day 2.

 

I'm just less obsessed with the search for a QB than I am with nailing the remaining critical spots around him. And maybe I grade on a pretty harsh curve, because I think at any given point in time there are typically about 10-12 truly "elite" QBs in the League and the others to me are all, in one sense or another, what I would call "game managers."

 

I  think the current rules so favor the passing game that it makes it almost too important for franchises to look for the next Rodgers, Mahomes, Luck, etc when there just aren't enough of those freak athletes to go around a 32 team league. And at a time when a team can get to within a game of the Super Bowl with a game manager like Ryan Tannehill, unless I can miraculously get a shot at someone like Trevor Lawrence I'm going to concentrate on defense and offensive skill guys instead.

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1 hour ago, CelticColt said:

QBs selected in very late rounds do have a low success rate, yes, but the same is true of some other positions. Once you approach pick #200 and beyond, it's usually a crap shoot. Kind of like some of the guys Ballard chose a year ago. But I'm not usually very worried or concerned about Day 3 picks if Day 2 goes well. You can still find good individual players on Day 3, but winning teams are primarily built during Day 2.

 

I'm just less obsessed with the search for a QB than I am with nailing the remaining critical spots around him. And maybe I grade on a pretty harsh curve, because I think at any given point in time there are typically about 10-12 truly "elite" QBs in the League and the others to me are all, in one sense or another, what I would call "game managers."

 

I  think the current rules so favor the passing game that it makes it almost too important for franchises to look for the next Rodgers, Mahomes, Luck, etc when there just aren't enough of those freak athletes to go around a 32 team league. And at a time when a team can get to within a game of the Super Bowl with a game manager like Ryan Tannehill, unless I can miraculously get a shot at someone like Trevor Lawrence I'm going to concentrate on defense and offensive skill guys instead.

There are positions (like DB and LB) that have higher success rates in the later rounds than others. The late rounds are also a place to take low risk flyers on freak athlete raw prospects and small school guys. 

 

Here's a decent look at AV through the rounds. 

paine-datalab-nfldraft1.png?w=575

 

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3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think we need a legit X in the draft. That said, I think Pascal could be a very productive depth X and big slot. We run a fair amount of 2 X (one in slot) snaps, so he should get plenty of opportunity regardless. In short, love the guy, but he shouldn't be our primary guy opposite TY. 

Yeah I agree he shouldn’t be number two. I see no reason Pascal can’t get 700 yards again or more. He might of got 1k if he had been the number one with a guy like Luck. 

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4 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Yeah I agree he shouldn’t be number two. I see no reason Pascal can’t get 700 yards again or more. He might of got 1k if he had been the number one with a guy like Luck. 

700 is a little high IMO. Ideally I'd love to see WR1 and 2 both in the 800-1200 range, slot 700-1000 range, and TE1 in the 600-800 range. having a #2 X be in the 700 range isn't likely unless he's running a lot of slot routes (which is certainly possible). I just think if we're healthy, slot will be mostly PC, and Hines is going to get a lot of targets too. 

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4 hours ago, CelticColt said:If Ballard hangs on to #34 I would hope he goes full BPA, even it's not someone at a position of immediate need, such as OL or LB. In any case, I still have a feeling that some CB (or maybe safety) who should've been drafted in Round One will be there at #34, and I wouldn't mind adding someone like that to the roster to push the Colts' secondary.


THIS ALL DAY!!!!

 

after the release of Desir... even after the sighing of Rhodes... I would completely be behinds... I feel a few really good CB’s are going to slip into round 2 just like last year.

 

Honestly my dream pick is Grant Delpit at safety... I know he had an off year but he is the epitome of an Alpha dog in the back end. I know he had tackling issues last year as well as the fact we have Willis but if he made it to 34 I would take him over any receiver expect for the top 3 that we *know* are going to be gone.

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I agree with some earlier posters who said we should just go for BPA for our first three picks - which might not necessarily be a WR, especially since many have said that it is a deep class for wideouts, thus some good X ones might be available in later rounds.  My guess now for the second round picks are OT and TE, not necessarily in that order.  We desperately need to get some OL depth, especially since losing Haig, plus this would be a great chance to get a high quality replacement for Castanzo.  Others have said the Rivers has always really used his TE, and that our coaches really like to integrate them into our attack.  Losing Ebron leaves a great hole. I don't think it's a deep TE class, so grabbing one in very early rounds makes some sense.  Being a Purdue fan, I like Hopkins for getting open downfield, but, like Ebron, he sometimes gets a case of the "dropsies".  For our third round pick I think CB or WR.  Just my guesses!  

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Chiefs just resigned WR DeMarcus Robinson today.  Hopefully that helps to speed up the release of Watkins.

So you really think that Kansas City would take a 7 million dollar cap hit and cut him? 

Somehow I don't see that happening. 

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