Roster Building: The Case for a 1st Rd WR is Pretty Strong

[shasta519]

15 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Most college WRs run limited route trees in college. Bubble screens, go routes, and slants are about the bulk of what they do in spread offenses. The corners are a part of it as well, as most of them don’t face heavy press coverage in college. 

 

Unfortunately, it’s not the job of college coaches to prepare players for the next level. Their job is to take players and coach them up to be able to play in their scheme so they can win football games.

 

With spread offenses, a lot of receivers are schemed to get wide open. It’s tougher to get open in the NFL....unless you’re playing the Colts soft zone coverage.

 

Yep...college offenses definitely play a big part in this. Same for many OL prospects as well. 

 

But as we have seen...NFL teams are adopting more spread concepts...so maybe the success rate of WRs will start to trend the other way. Seems like that was the case this year...as most of the WRs taken in rounds 1-3 have had promising rookie seasons.

[Trueman]

See , I think people are looking at this wrong. 

1) The rule changes have made it easier for lesser talents to become productive more than ever. It used to be that you needed an elite skill position player to get elite production , but now , similar to the QB position , marginal talents can be productive. 

2) Skill position players are the easiest to acquire later in the draft and in FA/trades. Everyone is in love with KC right now , but if you actually look at their skill position players , it shows this :

RB- Kareem Hunt 3rd round
RB- Spencer Ware Free Agent
RB-Damien Williams Free Agent

TE- Travis Kelce 3rd round

WR- Tyreek Hill 5th round
WR- Sammy Watkins Free Agent
WR- Chris Conley 4th round
WR- Demarcus Robinson 5th round

And this is the franchise Ballard is coming from. It's clear their ethos is to spend high draft capital in the positions hardest to fill . ie: impact defenders/big men. 

It's much harder to find/acquire impact players in the trenches. Big men that can play are becoming unicorns. Every draft is deep with skill positions. Every draft. And every year you can acquire skill position upgrades in FA or via trade. Look at the past trade deadline if you want some recent examples.

3) We have the 4th highest scoring offense in the league right now. That's right , with the nobodies and dudes Ballard found off the street , we have an offense that's borderline elite. What does that tell you? Think about it.

4) Outside of QB play , rushing the passer is clearly the most important facet of the game now. It's not even close. Coverage sacks are becoming extinct , and if you can't create interior disruption , your defense is dead. The truly rare players -the ones hardest to get-- are impact DL. And you're telling me in a historically strong DL class , we should be taking a receiver? Why? 

Yes, we should definitely upgrade our receivers, but no, it doesn't require us to use our 1st. Not at all.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

What holes does Cain have?

 

I'm pretty sure the only reason he dropped was attitude concerns, and the only concern I have with him on the field is his ability to come back from injury. I think he's a complete prospect.

I'm assuming he dropped for reasons other than attitude. 

 

At one point I mocked him to us in the second based upon his write ups but saw only a few sites having him ranked that highly, so I  moved off of him and on to Kirk.  I didn't read anything that would suggest that he would last until the fifth, so I thought selecting him there was a no brainer. 

 

I think he's a good prospect.  I'm simply making the assumption there are holes that I didn't read about and 31 other GMs wouldn't pass on him for 2 extra rounds just because of attitude, but maybe they did.

[horseshoecrabs]

Before casting him off, let him come back from his injury and see where he stands He might be a good steal at WR , when we got him.

 

[DougDew]

12 minutes ago, Trueman said:

See , I think people are looking at this wrong. 

1) The rule changes have made it easier for lesser talents to become productive more than ever. It used to be that you needed an elite skill position player to get elite production , but now , similar to the QB position , marginal talents can be productive. 

2) Skill position players are the easiest to acquire later in the draft and in FA/trades. Everyone is in love with KC right now , but if you actually look at their skill position players , it shows this :

RB- Kareem Hunt 3rd round
RB- Spencer Ware Free Agent
RB-Damien Williams Free Agent

TE- Travis Kelce 3rd round

WR- Tyreek Hill 5th round
WR- Sammy Watkins Free Agent
WR- Chris Conley 4th round
WR- Demarcus Robinson 5th round

And this is franchise Ballard is coming from. It's clear their ethos is to spend high draft capital in the positions hardest to fill . ie: impact defenders/big men. 

It's much harder to find/acquire impact players in the trenches. Big men that can play are becoming unicorns. Every draft is loaded with skill positions. Every draft. 

3) We have the 4th highest scoring offense in the league right now. That's right , with the nobodies and dudes Ballard found off the street , we have an offense that's borderline elite. What does that tell you? Think about it.

4) Outside of QB play , rushing the passer is clearly the most important facet of the game now. It's not even close. Coverage sacks are becoming extinct , and if you can't create interior disruption , your defense is dead. The truly rare players -the ones hardest to get-- are impact DL. And you're telling me in a historically deep DL draft , we should be taking a receiver? Why? 

Yes we should definitely upgrade our receivers, but no, it doesn't require to use our 1st. Not at all.





 

I think these are very good points, and its the stuff I would conclude that taking a RB high is not a good idea.

 

But with WRs, I think speed, wiggle, and good hands are traits that separate receivers.  Even if open by scheme, they still need to catch a ball that isn't perfect and get some YAC.

 

You present even more reasons to me to have as many second round picks as you can get when you're changing schemes on both sides of the ball.

[Superman]

53 minutes ago, stitches said:

@Superman Here's a snap of him on a go route where he tracks the ball over his shoulder(go to about 1:10)

 

 

 

Looks good, soft hands, too.

[Superman]

46 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'm assuming he dropped for reasons other than attitude. 

 

At one point I mocked him to us in the second based upon his write ups but saw only a few sites having him ranked that highly, so I  moved off of him and on to Kirk.  I didn't read anything that would suggest that he would last until the fifth, so I thought selecting him there was a no brainer. 

 

I think he's a good prospect.  I'm simply making the assumption there are holes that I didn't read about and 31 other GMs wouldn't pass on him for 2 extra rounds just because of attitude, but maybe they did.

 

You're assuming, but there's no real evidence out there, right? Have you seen any? I believe most draftniks had him as a Day 2 prospect, and we got him in the 6th. Line that up with Ballard's statement that didn't want to draft anyone with character questions before the 6th, and I feel like it's obvious why he dropped. 

 

I will note that he had some on field hiccups, some drops, and not great production in his last year at Clemson. But his draft profile suggested he'd go at least three rounds sooner than he did.

 

But you said he has holes, so what I'm asking you -- and anyone else -- is whether there's something about his talent, skill, or the way he plays, that's lacking. Is there something about him as a player that explains why he dropped to the 6th round, or that explains why he isn't a legitimate WR2 prospect moving forward?

 

I don't think there is. If he stays disciplined, and if he rebounds from his injury, I think he'll be on track to be a significant contributor for us no later than 2020.

[DougDew]

23 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You're assuming, but there's no real evidence out there, right? Have you seen any? I believe most draftniks had him as a Day 2 prospect, and we got him in the 6th. Line that up with Ballard's statement that didn't want to draft anyone with character questions before the 6th, and I feel like it's obvious why he dropped. 

 

I will note that he had some on field hiccups, some drops, and not great production in his last year at Clemson. But his draft profile suggested he'd go at least three rounds sooner than he did.

 

But you said he has holes, so what I'm asking you -- and anyone else -- is whether there's something about his talent, skill, or the way he plays, that's lacking. Is there something about him as a player that explains why he dropped to the 6th round, or that explains why he isn't a legitimate WR2 prospect moving forward?

 

I don't think there is. If he stays disciplined, and if he rebounds from his injury, I think he'll be on track to be a significant contributor for us no later than 2020.

Maybe I'm confused a bit about where sites had him listed, but I didn't read anything in his write ups that suggested he would not be a good prospect, IMO.  I didn't even read how significant the character concerns were...no arrests or suspensions that I am aware of.  As I said, taking him in the 5th (or was it actually the 6th behind Daurice Fountain) was a no brainer from my limited knowledge perspective.

 

I assume some sort of on field concern was common knowledge amongst the scouting types, considering the character concerns couldn't have been the motive for not even one other GM picking him earlier, IMO.

[MikeCurtis]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

@MikeCurtis on the draft board posted about Parris Campbell from Ohio State. He's a bit of a YAC receiver but he lines up almost exclusively in the slot and thus I don't know how to value him. Would you draft such a receiver no matter how talented he is early? 1st or 2nd round? He seems very good at what he does - slants, crossing routes, abusing natural picks created from bunched up formations close to the box. They use him on jet sweeps and on screen plays so it looks like his coaches believe in his ability to create with ball in his hands and he seems shifty and explosive with ball in his hands... but he pretty much never lines up outside... How high do you draft this type of player? 

After looking at other prospects, I think he can be had for a 3rd or 4th (up from a 2nd or a 3rd)

 

He is one of these guys that is very tough to tackle downfield. 

 

Barrett (a running QB, that has little down field ball threat) has been his QB except for this year. Where he had a future NFLer in Haskett

 

I think he has flown under the radar

 

I would love to see him wear the shoe.

 

But......

 

It would seem that we have a few too many slot recievers this year, though

 

I THINK, .... IF we take a WR, we want one on the edge.......  

 

To me, there is ONE offensive player I would take in round one...... (Though, He will be LONG GONE when we pick)

 

Williams from Alabama as the future LT.........  

 

I think we need to keep working the lines.......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Introspect]

Cain will be able

 

Marvin to Reggie

Reggie to TY

TY to Cain

 

Gotta feeling about the kid

[BOTT]

7 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

In today's NFL, i'd probably put an elite interior DL (especially NT) above an elite WR, but they're close enough that any they would compute about the same in the BPA equation.

I would put the value of a elite DL way higher than a WR.  Not that receivers aren't valuable, but the are a lot more potential receivers walking the earth than athletic 6'3 315 lbers.

[ztboiler]

14 hours ago, krunk said:

I don't believe they will take one in the 1st round.  They want to spread the ball around to everyone and use a bevvy of athletic tight ends.  I think they are very comfortable with taking mid and lower round WR and developing them for this system.  I think guys like Cain, Fountain, Ishmael and maybe even Marcus Johnson are the types they are looking for. I believe if they do take another WR or two it'll be mid to lower rounds again.  Guys that had pretty good draft grades but fell in the draft for whatever reason.

Ballard may very well find what he’s looking for in the mid to lower rounds at WR...I’m good with finding them wherever you find them, but all the guys you just referenced haven’t played yet in the NFL...

 

I’m not looking for a first round receiver as much as it would not surprise me if a first round receiver is BPA when we pick.

 

[Superman]

19 hours ago, DougDew said:

Maybe I'm confused a bit about where sites had him listed, but I didn't read anything in his write ups that suggested he would not be a good prospect, IMO.  I didn't even read how significant the character concerns were...no arrests or suspensions that I am aware of.  As I said, taking him in the 5th (or was it actually the 6th behind Daurice Fountain) was a no brainer from my limited knowledge perspective.

 

I assume some sort of on field concern was common knowledge amongst the scouting types, considering the character concerns couldn't have been the motive for not even one other GM picking him earlier, IMO.

 

So, allowing for the very implausible scenario where I'm wrong on this (sarcasm should be painfully obvious), I don't think there are any serious holes in Cain's game that will prevent him from being a good player for us. I'm pretty confident that he dropped due to a combination of factors, most relevant are his off the field issues and a lack of production last season. But I think he has the tools and ability needed to perform in the NFL. 

 

I'm not relying on him in 2019, though. Coming back from an ACL, and having never played a real down in the NFL, I'm going to assume that 2019 will be a warmup year for him.

[DougDew]

27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

So, allowing for the very implausible scenario where I'm wrong on this (sarcasm should be painfully obvious), I don't think there are any serious holes in Cain's game that will prevent him from being a good player for us. I'm pretty confident that he dropped due to a combination of factors, most relevant are his off the field issues and a lack of production last season. But I think he has the tools and ability needed to perform in the NFL. 

 

I'm not relying on him in 2019, though. Coming back from an ACL, and having never played a real down in the NFL, I'm going to assume that 2019 will be a warmup year for him.

Ok.  I didn't remember reading where he had production issues last year and maybe that's why I replaced him with Kirk in my mock.  Maybe that spooked teams.  But I agree overall, I thought he read like a great prospect and I was surprised to see he lasted until our 6th.

 

I honestly had not considered him with my initial post in this thread, but I think Ballard should look at WR if value is there.  I have been biased towards getting a YAC guy like Tyler Lockett for years, and I don't think Cain is that type, so I'll still hold out hope we find one in something other than the first round.

[Briggs32]

If we fall down to around 20 and there aren't any premium pass rushers left, I'd be fine with grabbing N'Keal Harry or Kelvin Harmon.  Even D.K. Metcalf if he checks out medically.  

[GusFring]

Shoulda just gave up a 1 for cooper then. No wr will be better than him. 

[DougDew]

On 11/26/2018 at 10:32 AM, shastamasta said:

 

Drafting a WR at #29 was a good idea? I disagree. Maybe if they drafted Lockett. But look at that draft class...it was a poor decision. It was a weak WR draft group (except for Cooper, White and Parker...who were all gone at that point)...but somehow the #1 S and every ILB were all available...both big long-term needs at the time.

 

The play was to draft defense and then grab Lockett later...if a speedy WR was the goal. The affinity for crappy Florida college players was a strange part of the Grigs regime.

 

Not to mention passing on Collins indirectly led to the awful Green pick...and passing on Kendricks indirectly led to the awful Morrison pick.

 

But Grigs (and Pagano) were just awful at talent evalution when it came to the draft. What's funny is if you make a couple of reasonable changes to a couple of picks (like the two above)...the dominoes could have fallen so much better. Another couple of examples would be Xavier Rhodes/Deandre Hopkins over Werner in 2013. Rhodes negates the need to pick D'Joun Smith....and Hopkins negates the need to pick Moncrief and (especially) Dorsett. 

 

Yes...it's a bit of hindsight...but those examples were the most popular mock AND fan picks at the time. I stand by my contention that the Colts would have drafted better if they crowd-sourced the early picks during the Grigs era.

I agree with nearly all of your specific points, especially about Dorsett himself not being the player he should have.  I wouldn't expect him to be Reggie Wayne, who was drafted at 25, but if he had the production we would have expected from a late 1st round WR I think the offense would have looked a lot better, and who knows how much Luck gets sacked, etc.if he's got someone to throw to.

 

As far as 2013.  Look at the history of all teams' drafting competence during that year.  It was a bad college draft class period.  A few squirrels found some quality nuts, but that class should be cause for throwing it all out when doing a look-back test on anyone, like a teacher throws out your worst quiz, LOL.

 

Its also becoming more clear to me that the previous offensive and defensive schemes were simply harder to draft for than the current schemes, perhaps something that spawned the switch to what we have.  I think Polian said the 43 could be played with younger players (easier to acquire in my eyes) than a 34.  And I think Reichs offense requires less overall talent at WR, and no bell-cow 3 down RB, so the skilled positions are easier to find.

 

So I'm glad we made the switch out of the previous regime and into the new one given the new schemes.  I think it will make it easier to build and maintain a quality roster for what we want to do than it was in the past.

 

Yeah, the Green pick never made sense to me.  

[Superman]

1 hour ago, GusFring said:

Shoulda just gave up a 1 for cooper then. No wr will be better than him. 

 

There's just the small matter of $14m that he's due in 2019. Let me check the couch cushions...

[Vexed]

On 11/26/2018 at 3:17 PM, Trueman said:

See , I think people are looking at this wrong. 

1) The rule changes have made it easier for lesser talents to become productive more than ever. It used to be that you needed an elite skill position player to get elite production , but now , similar to the QB position , marginal talents can be productive. 

2) Skill position players are the easiest to acquire later in the draft and in FA/trades. Everyone is in love with KC right now , but if you actually look at their skill position players , it shows this :

RB- Kareem Hunt 3rd round
RB- Spencer Ware Free Agent
RB-Damien Williams Free Agent

TE- Travis Kelce 3rd round

WR- Tyreek Hill 5th round
WR- Sammy Watkins Free Agent
WR- Chris Conley 4th round
WR- Demarcus Robinson 5th round

And this is the franchise Ballard is coming from. It's clear their ethos is to spend high draft capital in the positions hardest to fill . ie: impact defenders/big men. 

It's much harder to find/acquire impact players in the trenches. Big men that can play are becoming unicorns. Every draft is deep with skill positions. Every draft. And every year you can acquire skill position upgrades in FA or via trade. Look at the past trade deadline if you want some recent examples.

3) We have the 4th highest scoring offense in the league right now. That's right , with the nobodies and dudes Ballard found off the street , we have an offense that's borderline elite. What does that tell you? Think about it.

4) Outside of QB play , rushing the passer is clearly the most important facet of the game now. It's not even close. Coverage sacks are becoming extinct , and if you can't create interior disruption , your defense is dead. The truly rare players -the ones hardest to get-- are impact DL. And you're telling me in a historically strong DL class , we should be taking a receiver? Why? 

Yes, we should definitely upgrade our receivers, but no, it doesn't require us to use our 1st. Not at all.

I agree with every bit of this. If they like Cains’ recovery and what they’re seeing from Fountain at the end of the year... I think people will be shocked to see CB not take a receiver at all. I’m old school .... build those trenches! Nice prospects at tackle as well.

ps. Maybe a cb and ss.

[shasta519]

8 hours ago, DougDew said:

I agree with nearly all of your specific points, especially about Dorsett himself not being the player he should have.  I wouldn't expect him to be Reggie Wayne, who was drafted at 25, but if he had the production we would have expected from a late 1st round WR I think the offense would have looked a lot better, and who knows how much Luck gets sacked, etc.if he's got someone to throw to.

 

As far as 2013.  Look at the history of all teams' drafting competence during that year.  It was a bad college draft class period.  A few squirrels found some quality nuts, but that class should be cause for throwing it all out when doing a look-back test on anyone, like a teacher throws out your worst quiz, LOL.

 

Its also becoming more clear to me that the previous offensive and defensive schemes were simply harder to draft for than the current schemes, perhaps something that spawned the switch to what we have.  I think Polian said the 43 could be played with younger players (easier to acquire in my eyes) than a 34.  And I think Reichs offense requires less overall talent at WR, and no bell-cow 3 down RB, so the skilled positions are easier to find.

 

So I'm glad we made the switch out of the previous regime and into the new one given the new schemes.  I think it will make it easier to build and maintain a quality roster for what we want to do than it was in the past.

 

Yeah, the Green pick never made sense to me.  

 

Yeah...2013 wasn’t a great draft. But a big part of that comes from the top 10 having so many busts. It’s a pretty good example of how OL players can get overvalued and overdrafted.

 

I always harp on it...not so much because I hated the Werner pick (I did)...but more so because of the opportunity cost. Rhodes and Hopkins were both big-time fits and clearly BPA.  That was a potentially franchise-altering mistake. 

 

On a side note...another thing that irks me about 2013 is how good the TE class was. But Grigs double-dipped the year before in a very weak TE class. I think TE is one of those positons you take advantage of in a draft if the talent is deep (like last year)...not one you plan on drafting. But that was Grigs for you. 

[#12.]

On 11/26/2018 at 3:17 PM, Trueman said:

See , I think people are looking at this wrong. 

1) The rule changes have made it easier for lesser talents to become productive more than ever. 

 

The flip side to that:  the rule changes are also making it harder for elite defensive talent to have any real impact.  

 

So, what do you do?  I would trade down, if possible, get more picks and give yourself more opportunities.  

 

[ClaytonColt]

2 hours ago, #12. said:

 

The flip side to that:  the rule changes are also making it harder for elite defensive talent to have any real impact.  

 

So, what do you do?  I would trade down, if possible, get more picks and give yourself more opportunities.  

 

I don't think that is true in a comparative way.

 

It's making it harder for top end talent to have any real impact but if you have below average talent it's basically impossible. 

 

The days of consistently holding teams to under 15 points are over. It's now probably more about getting teams into 3rd and long situations, forcing field goals in the red zone and turnovers to give your offense more opportunities/possession. 

 

There just doesn't seem to be any way to do that with middle of the road guys. They just get walked over by talented offenses (and referees) 

 

 

[#12.]

23 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

I don't think that is true in a comparative way.

 

It's making it harder for top end talent to have any real impact but if you have below average talent it's basically impossible. 

 

 

 

Yet, none of the top teams have great defenses.  Impossible to do what?   To me, it appears more than ever it's possible to win with an average-to-below average defense.

 

Also, it absolutely works both ways.  A shutdown corner from ten years ago might have relatively little impact today.  Meaning, why blow a first rounder on a guy who will only have slightly more impact than 3rd or 4th rounder?  

 

 

[ClaytonColt]

4 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

Yet, none of the top teams have great defenses.  Impossible to do what?   To me, it appears more than ever it's possible to win with an average-to-below average defense.

 

Also, it absolutely works both ways.  A shutdown corner from ten years ago might have relatively little impact today.  Meaning, why blow a first rounder on a guy who will only have slightly more impact than 3rd or 4th rounder?  

 

 

None of them have great defenses in terms of yards or points but most of them have got talented players who can force a stop in crucial situation, turnovers or sacks.

 

I don't think they do only have slightly more impact though. Getting 1 more interception or 1 more sack in a crucial situation is not having little impact unless you're arguing that talent makes no difference in terms of making those sorts of plays?  

[Pacergeek]

You add Hollywood Brown to this offense, and we make KC look like Buffalo. I like Cain as a reserve, but Brown is much much better than Cain. Ballard needs to trade up to make sure Brown is a Horseshoe. 

[Superman]

6 hours ago, #12. said:

 

The flip side to that:  the rule changes are also making it harder for elite defensive talent to have any real impact.  

 

So, what do you do?  I would trade down, if possible, get more picks and give yourself more opportunities.  

 

 

I don't agree with the bolded. Rules changes haven't made it harder to get consistent pressure on the QB, for instance. Building a defensive line rotation that can pressure up the middle and on the edges is still the best way to have a consistent pass rush, and elite pass rushers are still scarce.

[richard pallo]

14 hours ago, Superman said:

 

There's just the small matter of $14m that he's due in 2019. Let me check the couch cushions...

I think the cookie jar is full.  Jim put it on top of the refrigerator. 

[aaron11]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

I think the cookie jar is full.  Jim put it on top of the refrigerator. 

yes, we do have that money and not many people to pay before this money cycle ends.  our recent draft picks have been good, but they wont be paid until the next 4 year money period anyway

 

we  could make an offer to bell, or whoever really 

[Dark Superman]

I honestly would go defense round 1, WR with the Jets pick, and then defense again with our second round pick.

[Matabix]

With defense strong in the draft. We could have a nice OT land at our spot. Than spend next few picks on defense. Could get 2nd best OT in the draft. An eventual replacement for AC.

[Superman]

@stitches  @ztboiler

 

I just came across this from Ballard, after the draft. Doesn't mean he won't draft a WR in the first round, but he says receiver is overvalued in the draft.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/go-inside-the-colts-draft-room-with-chris-ballard-20621288

 

Quote

I’ll tell you this though: wideouts the most overgraded position in the draft. There’s a million of them. You look at a draft board, and, I mean, every wideout gets a damn grade. … Because they’re all catching balls.

 

[stitches]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

@stitches  @ztboiler

 

I just came across this from Ballard, after the draft. Doesn't mean he won't draft a WR in the first round, but he says receiver is overvalued in the draft.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/go-inside-the-colts-draft-room-with-chris-ballard-20621288

 

 

Thanks but to me that sounds more like he's commenting on over-saturation of WRs on draft boards(i.e. he thinks there are a ton of them people pay attention to and not all deserve to be on an NFL draft board), rather than his commentary on the value of the WR position or his willingness to take a WR high. 

 

That's why he's saying "over-grading" and "every wideout gets a damn grade" as in... there is disproportionate amount of WRs on draft boards(and a lot of them don't deserve to be there - i.e. comment on the bottom part of the sample) rather than the position being overvalued at the top. I don't know if I'm expressing myself well... tell me if I don't make any sense. 

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Thanks but to me that sounds more like he's commenting on over-saturation of WRs on draft boards(i.e. he thinks there are a ton of them people pay attention to and not all deserve to be on an NFL draft board), rather than his commentary on the value of WR or his willingness to take a WR high. 

 

That's why he's saying "over-grading" and "every wideout gets a damn grade" as in... there is disproportionate amount of WRs on draft boards rather than the position being overvalued at the top. I don't know if I'm expressing myself well... tell me if I don't make any sense. 

 

 

That does make sense. Maybe his point was more specifically that WRs get grades higher than they deserve, and wasn't not relevant to positional value. 

 

But even then, I think his total comment is in harmony with what I was saying about how WRs get hyped in the draft, because it sounds like he thinks receivers aren't being scouted properly,  partly because of the high profile nature of the position. I think we've all noticed how questionable WR drafting has been in recent years.

 

Quote

To me, there’s two things you need to look at. One, can you find enough press snaps and rolled-up coverage snaps that they can handle getting off? And then, anybody can make the wide-open (play); it’s the contested catches. The tough, competitive contested catches. Can they make those? If they can make those, they’ve got a real shot. I mean, you’re going to look at yards after catch — all those are important things. But to me, the first things are can he get off press, and then can he make those hard, competitive contested catches? And there were some guys in this draft that I had questioned if they could do it.

 

He sounds pretty selective, to the point that some of the guys getting drafted aren't impressive to him.

 

Now where he and I start to differ is when he kind of shrugs off the other factors, like YAC. I think beating press coverage and making contested catches is critical, obviously, but those other factors like balance, quickness, making tacklers miss, etc., are critical also, IMO.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

@stitches  @ztboiler

 

I just came across this from Ballard, after the draft. Doesn't mean he won't draft a WR in the first round, but he says receiver is overvalued in the draft.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/go-inside-the-colts-draft-room-with-chris-ballard-20621288

 

I'd say the same about RBs, too.  You can find capable RBs and WRs in almost every round.

 

Guys like Megatron and AP are going to be drafted where we don't want to be drafting (top 5).

 

I like Ballard saying he wants to build the trenches ("Big men, athletic men, up front — I mean, it wins."), and hopefully that means he is drafting big men early and finding capable skill guys in mid-late rounds.

[ztboiler]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

@stitches  @ztboiler

 

I just came across this from Ballard, after the draft. Doesn't mean he won't draft a WR in the first round, but he says receiver is overvalued in the draft.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/go-inside-the-colts-draft-room-with-chris-ballard-20621288

 

 

It’s fair to imply overvalued from overgraded.  Though @stitches makes a great point above. We can also draw from his behavior and in 2 years he’s done little to upgrade the WR position while actively allowing talent to exit.  

 

To that end, it is indeed difficult to envision Ballard drafting a WR in the 1st, particularly when the defensive roster building has much work to do.

[Hoosiernsavga]

It obviously depends on how this off season FA period goes before we have any clue on what our needs will somewhat be come draft time. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

That does make sense. Maybe his point was more specifically that WRs get grades higher than they deserve, and wasn't not relevant to positional value. 

 

But even then, I think his total comment is in harmony with what I was saying about how WRs get hyped in the draft, because it sounds like he thinks receivers aren't being scouted properly,  partly because of the high profile nature of the position. I think we've all noticed how questionable WR drafting has been in recent years.

 

 

He sounds pretty selective, to the point that some of the guys getting drafted aren't impressive to him.

 

Now where he and I start to differ is when he kind of shrugs off the other factors, like YAC. I think beating press coverage and making contested catches is critical, obviously, but those other factors like balance, quickness, making tacklers miss, etc., are critical also, IMO.

I was not impressed by this quote to be fair. To me making the hard contested catches is a good bonus, but not close to the top of the list. Getting open is the true separating factor(pun intended). The best receivers in the league are the best because they get open, not because they catch contested balls(of course the top of the top have it all). He's right to point out to getting off press coverage(watch Metcalf in this draft, he is great with his hands at the beginning of the route, swiping defenders hands who try to jam him) and running good sharp routes is the basis of a good receiver... everything else is layered on top of those two for me personally. Being elusive after the catch is important, having good hands is important, having good body control is important, speed is a great bonus once you've gotten off your man... as well as making contested catches. My point is... if your best attribute is making contested catches, you will not catch a lot of balls... first QBs don't like throwing contested balls if they don't have to... they generally throw to people they see have some separation(or know will separate on anticipation type of throws) , and second the moment the catch is contested is the moment your catch rate significantly drops. (red zone is a bit of a different story because of the compressed field, so that's where you mostly need to throw some contested balls) 

 

For whatever it's worth, I'm not sure I trust Ballard's evaluations on WRs. They haven't been great so far. Kamar Aiken, Reece Fountaine, Grant... Overall not impressed so far. He hasn't spent premier resources on the position though... so... I'm not sure if it's reasonable to be expecting more from the WRs he's gotten for the resources he's spent... so... I guess I will wait a season or two more before I have more firm opinion on his WR evaluations. 

 

(highlight vid of DK Metcalf following)

 

 

[richard pallo]

14 minutes ago, stitches said:

I was not impressed by this quote to be fair. To me making the hard contested catches is a good bonus, but not close to the top of the list. Getting open is the true separating factor(pun intended). The best receivers in the league are the best because they get open, not because they catch contested balls(of course the top of the top have it all). He's right to point out to getting off press coverage(watch Metcalf in this draft, he is great with his hands at the beginning of the route, swiping defenders hands who try to jam him) and running good sharp routes is the basis of a good receiver... everything else is layered on top of those two for me personally. Being elusive after the catch is important, having good hands is important, having good body control is important, speed is a great bonus once you've gotten off your man... as well as making contested catches. My point is... if your best attribute is making contested catches, you will not catch a lot of balls... first QBs don't like throwing contested balls if they don't have to... they generally throw to people they see have some separation(or know will separate on anticipation type of throws) , and second the moment the catch is contested is the moment your catch rate significantly drops. (red zone is a bit of a different story because of the compressed field, so that's where you mostly need to throw some contested balls) 

 

For whatever it's worth, I'm not sure I trust Ballard's evaluations on WRs. They haven't been great so far. Kamar Aiken, Reece Fountaine, Grant... Overall not impressed so far. He hasn't spent premier resources on the position though... so... I'm not sure if it's reasonable to be expecting more from the WRs he's gotten for the resources he's spent... so... I guess I will wait a season or two more before I have more firm opinion on his WR evaluations. 

 

 

I think it's fair to say he has pretty much missed on the WR's.  The FA's have been nothing great really.  He did draft Cain who was really looking like he could have been a hit before the injury.  Hopefully he bounces back.  Fountain, Ishmael are having a hard time getting playing time.  He certainly hasn't ignored the position but so far nothing to get really excited about.   Even Rogers is still hanging around.  I think he will make it a priority this offseason especially since Luck has returned to form.  If we lose TY for an extended period of time we will be in a big hurt.  

[stitches]

1 hour ago, ztboiler said:

It’s fair to imply overvalued from overgraded.  Though @stitches makes a great point above. We can also draw from his behavior and in 2 years he’s done little to upgrade the WR position while actively allowing talent to exit.  

 

To that end, it is indeed difficult to envision Ballard drafting a WR in the 1st, particularly when the defensive roster building has much work to do.

I think the composition of this draft plays very well into his natural tendencies and stated preferences about building a team(starting from the trenches). There are way too many great defensive prospects on the DLine. I think he will be drooling over this draft class' pass-rushers(both interior and on the EDGE) and I fully expect us to draft one... first because there are a ton of good ones and chances are one of those would be BPA where we are drafting, second because it meets our needs and covers some of our biggest weaknesses and third because again - it fits his philosophy.  

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we drafted a WR, but I think the odds are in favor of defensive player. With that said I fully expect one of our top 4 picks(rounds 1-3) to be a WR. 

[Kyle]

34 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

 

 

wow... thats a future nfl stud right there