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Colts Mock Draft: Melvin Gordon


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I have now seen a few mock drafts projecting that the Colts will take Wisconsin RB (and Heisman Trophy finalist) Melvin Gordon with either the 26th/27th pick.  That would be a hell of a pickup.

 

If that played out, I think the Colts could move forward with Gordon, Boom, and perhaps Bradshaw (on the cheap; he's a great receiving threat and team player) and have a stellar backfield.  Ballard had a very solid rookie season but he's now sat out two years with major injuries. 

 

Some are anticipating that Gordon will be a 1,200+ yd guy right out of the gate.

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Any team that wastes a first round pick on a RB better be loaded at every other position.

There are probably ten RBs as good as Gordon available anyway. Just ask Joey Bosa.

If the :flyingelvis: really wanna commit to that power run identity, they could take Gordon and shop Vereen. Gordon & Blount would be a NASTY duo

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I have now seen a few mock drafts projecting that the Colts will take Wisconsin RB (and Heisman Trophy finalist) Melvin Gordon with either the 26th/27th pick.  That would be a hell of a pickup.

 

If that played out, I think the Colts could move forward with Gordon, Boom, and perhaps Bradshaw (on the cheap; he's a great receiving threat and team player) and have a stellar backfield.  Ballard had a very solid rookie season but he's now sat out two years with major injuries. 

 

Some are anticipating that Gordon will be a 1,200+ yd guy right out of the gate.

 

Just out of curiosity,  can you share with us which mock drafts have the Colts taking a RB in the 1st?

 

These days anyone and everyone is doing a mock draft.    Heck,  my mother does a mock draft and she passed away nearly 25 years ago!!!   (To be fair,  mom was always a very forward thinker!)

 

Most mock drafts aren't worth the Internet paper they're written on.....   so, at the risk of being an elitist snob,  I'm curious which websites mock us that way?

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Okay...I totally get that RBs can and have and will continue to be unearthed in later rounds, but the line of thinking that a RB should NEVER be taken in the 1st round has gone too far.

In the days of cap-stretching rookie signing bonuses I could somewhat understand the sentiment....and certainly the caution in resigning veteran RBs with high mileage to megadeals.

But now that rookie signing bonuses have been reigned in, why would we completely reject the idea of drafting a 1st round RB with no regard whatsoever for the talent of the RB we might have a shot at?

Or to put it another way....if we could spin the clock back to the Bjorn Werner pick with LeVeon Bell sitting there and we'd instead drafted Bell, how does the "No 1st round RB" theory look then?

I know there are cases to the reverse, and the factor of O-line coaching and development are huge, but the point I'm making is that we shouldn't rule out any offensive or defensive position in Round 1.

With key structural rushing attack positions like OG, C an RT already routinely getting relegated out of 1st round selections is it any wonder we can't sustain a rushing attack?

Again...I'm not saying we trade 5 picks to move up for this Wisconsin kid...just don't rule out a RB in the 1st round if the talent warrants taking one.

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Okay...I totally get that RBs can and have and will continue to be unearthed in later rounds, but the line of thinking that a RB should NEVER be taken in the 1st round has gone too far.

In the days of cap-stretching rookie signing bonuses I could somewhat understand the sentiment....and certainly the caution in resigning veteran RBs with high mileage to megadeals.

But now that rookie signing bonuses have been reigned in, why would we completely reject the idea of drafting a 1st round RB with no regard whatsoever for the talent of the RB we might have a shot at?

Or to put it another way....if we could spin the clock back to the Bjorn Werner pick with LeVeon Bell sitting there and we'd instead drafted Bell, how does the "No 1st round RB" theory look then?

I know there are cases to the reverse, and the factor of O-line coaching and development are huge, but the point I'm making is that we shouldn't rule out any offensive or defensive position in Round 1.

With key structural rushing attack positions like OG, C an RT already routinely getting relegated out of 1st round selections is it any wonder we can't sustain a rushing attack?

Again...I'm not saying we trade 5 picks to move up for this Wisconsin kid...just don't rule out a RB in the 1st round if the talent warrants taking one.

 

I get what you're saying about the financial aspect, but I don't think that's the concern.  IMO, the difference between a RB considered first round talent and one deemed 5th isn't much of a difference.  (And I'm not just using Trent and Boom as an example.  You could just as well say Andre Ellington had a better season than Giovanni Bernard)

 

Gordon is a decent back, but he's no Adrian Peterson.  Ohio State didn't have much problem stuffing him. 

 

Here are the real concerns: the RB position is split by two backs on most teams.  The position typically has a short NFL life span, It's very hit and miss.  For every Bell you have at least one ... trent... David Wilson is an example of a the perfect fail storm.

 

Most of all, teams that commit to the O Line and decent run schemes can get backs off the street and be successful. 

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I get what you're saying about the financial aspect, but I don't think that's the concern. IMO, the difference between a RB considered first round talent and one deemed 5th isn't much of a difference. (And I'm not just using Trent and Boom as an example. You could just as well say Andre Ellington had a better season than Giovanni Bernard)

Gordon is a decent back, but he's no Adrian Peterson. Ohio State didn't have much problem stuffing him.

Here are the real concerns: the RB position is split by two backs on most teams. The position typically has a short NFL life span, It's very hit and miss. For every Bell you have at least one ... trent... David Wilson is an example of a the perfect fail storm.

Most of all, teams that commit to the O Line and decent run schemes can get backs off the street and be successful.

Good points.

The NFL trend has without question gone to RB by committee....which along with the rookie cap has taken SOME the sting out of injuries or busts at RB.

But I also think that a RB by committee and the doling out of carries can be nuanced to perhaps an 80-20 split and where a 1st round talent, meaning a guy with size, speed, vision, receiving and blocking...shouldn't be gambled against a player at another position with less value.

The current trend still has very talented RBs dropping to draft positions lower than in previous eras....by virtue of a trend itself more than talent. I'm quite sure its how the Steelers had Bell fall into their laps. And Lacy to Green Bay.

But if we add OG, C and RT which are also sought consistently beyond the first round, then opportunities to build a solid credible rushing attack can begin to over-rely, IMO, on later round values, free agency signings and trades that sometimes succeed and sometimes don't.

Drafting and building a roster against a salary cap has to be mind-boggling for GMs. Its way easier to talk about it. :)

But I just think that taking anything completely off the 1st round table on Draft Day can be a mistake.

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Okay...I totally get that RBs can and have and will continue to be unearthed in later rounds, but the line of thinking that a RB should NEVER be taken in the 1st round has gone too far.

In the days of cap-stretching rookie signing bonuses I could somewhat understand the sentiment....and certainly the caution in resigning veteran RBs with high mileage to megadeals.

But now that rookie signing bonuses have been reigned in, why would we completely reject the idea of drafting a 1st round RB with no regard whatsoever for the talent of the RB we might have a shot at?

Or to put it another way....if we could spin the clock back to the Bjorn Werner pick with LeVeon Bell sitting there and we'd instead drafted Bell, how does the "No 1st round RB" theory look then?

I know there are cases to the reverse, and the factor of O-line coaching and development are huge, but the point I'm making is that we shouldn't rule out any offensive or defensive position in Round 1.

With key structural rushing attack positions like OG, C an RT already routinely getting relegated out of 1st round selections is it any wonder we can't sustain a rushing attack?

Again...I'm not saying we trade 5 picks to move up for this Wisconsin kid...just don't rule out a RB in the 1st round if the talent warrants taking one.

 

Every RB selected in the 1st round in the last 5 drafts that actually saw one drafted in the first round.

 

2007 

Adrian Peterson - 5 1000 yard seasons, 1 2000 yard season - 5 ypc career

Marshawn Lynch - 6 1000 yard seasons, 4.2 ypc career

 

2008

Darrien McFadden - 1 1000 yard season - 4.1 ypc career

Jonathan Stewart - 1 1000 yard season - 4.6 ypc career

Felix Jones - No 1000 yard seasons - 4.7 ypc career - OUT OF THE NFL, LAST PLAYED 2013

Rashard Mendenhall - 2 1000 yard seasons - 3.9 ypc career - RETIRED, LAST PLAYED 2013

Chris Johnson - 5 1000 yard seasons, 1 2000 yard season - 4.6 ypc career 

 

2009

Knowshon Moreno - 1 1000 yard season while playing with Peyton in 2013 - 4.1 ypc on his career.

Chris "Beanie" Wells - 1 1000 yard season in 2011 - 4 ypc on his career - OUT OF THE NFL - LAST PLAYED IN 2012

 

2010

CJ Spiller - 1 1000 yard season in 2012 - 5.1 ypc on his carerr

Ryan Matthews - 2 1000 yards season - 4.4 ypc on his career

Jahvid Best - No 1000 yard seasons - 3.7 ypc on career - OUT OF THE NFL - LAST PLAYED IN 2011

 

2011

Mark Ingram - No 1000 yard seasons but may have a chance this year.  4.2 ypc on career

 

2012

Trent Richardson - No 1000 yard seasons - 3.3 ypc on career

Doug Martin - 1 1000 yard season - 4.1 ypc on career

David Wilson - No 1000 yard seasons - 4.4 ypc on career - RETIRED DUE TO INJURES

 

So on that list I see 3 players who's production matched their first round draft status because they consistently put up 1000 yard or more seasons.  Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Chris Johnson.

 

5 out of 16 have NEVER had a 1000 yard season.  Maybe it's due to sucking, maybe it's due to injuries, maybe it's due to rotation, but they just arn't doing it.  Also 5 of the 16 are out of the NFL now.  

 

Sure injuries and rotation arn't their fault but here is the thing. . . IT DOESN'T MATTER.  If you make a first round pick and he rarely plays because of injuries, it's still a bust and a waste of a 1st round pick when better selections could be made.

 

Likewise if he plays in a rotation you are wasting a 1st round pick on a ROTATIONAL PLAYER!!!  You don't want to spend a 1st round pick on a guy unless you can see him playing all 3 downs.  

 

This is why you don't spend a 1st round pick on a RB.  If you say of these 16 players only Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Chris Johnson where worth it. . . that's an 18.75% success rate. . . which means that 81.25% of the RB's selected in the first round are legitimate busts. . . it's only a question of how badly and why they busted.  And for every Marshawn Lynch there is a Arian Foster who's had 4 1000 yard seasons since 2009 and 4.5 ypc on his career.

 

If you are spending a 1st round pick on a RB I personally would expect to see them get at least 1000 yards rushing on the majority of seasons they play in.  I don't think that's too much to ask considering how high you are picking them.  

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Good points.

The NFL trend has without question gone to RB by committee....which along with the rookie cap has taken SOME the sting out of injuries or busts at RB.

But I also think that a RB by committee and the doling out of carries can be nuanced to perhaps an 80-20 split and where a 1st round talent, meaning a guy with size, speed, vision, receiving and blocking...shouldn't be gambled against a player at another position with less value.

The current trend still has very talented RBs dropping to draft positions lower than in previous eras....by virtue of a trend itself more than talent. I'm quite sure its how the Steelers had Bell fall into their laps. And Lacy to Green Bay.

But if we add OG, C and RT which are also sought consistently beyond the first round, then opportunities to build a solid credible rushing attack can begin to over-rely, IMO, on later round values, free agency signings and trades that sometimes succeed and sometimes don't.

Drafting and building a roster against a salary cap has to be mind-boggling for GMs. Its way easier to talk about it. :)

But I just think that taking anything completely off the 1st round table on Draft Day can be a mistake.

 

Completely off the table. . . perhaps you are right it shouldn't be "completely off the table".  However as a general rule don't draft an RB in the first round and if you are going to break that rule you better have a long discussion in house and be absolutely sure that you are violating that rule for a good reason.  

 

Too much of an RB's production IMO comes from his line.  He just depends too much on other players to be worth it.  

 

On the other hand a QB can still be pretty productive with mediocre receivers and a mediocre line if he's good enough.

 

A good WR can still put up big numbers with bad or mediocre quarterbacking.  

 

But you see Ray Rice being super productive with the Ravens and then after the Ravens release him some 7th round pick named Forsett comes in and is just as productive.  

 

And that is hardly an isolated incident.  RB more then any position you see people you've never heard of before, coming out of no where having incredible games and seasons.   

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I have now seen a few mock drafts projecting that the Colts will take Wisconsin RB (and Heisman Trophy finalist) Melvin Gordon with either the 26th/27th pick.  That would be a hell of a pickup.

 

If that played out, I think the Colts could move forward with Gordon, Boom, and perhaps Bradshaw (on the cheap; he's a great receiving threat and team player) and have a stellar backfield.  Ballard had a very solid rookie season but he's now sat out two years with major injuries. 

 

Some are anticipating that Gordon will be a 1,200+ yd guy right out of the gate.

 

Gordon will probably be a solid NFL RB, but just staying in the Big 10, Abdulla, Coleman, and Langford were all just as good and won't cost the Colts a 1st round pick like Gordon will because of his hype. I personally would like to see the Colts draft Langford out of MSU in the 4th or 5th round. Think he would be a great pickup -- would compliment Boom very well in the backfield as more of a power runner, decent blocker and would be a great value in the 4th or 5th.

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Completely off the table. . . perhaps you are right it shouldn't be "completely off the table".  However as a general rule don't draft an RB in the first round and if you are going to break that rule you better have a long discussion in house and be absolutely sure that you are violating that rule for a good reason.  

 

Too much of an RB's production IMO comes from his line.  He just depends too much on other players to be worth it.  

 

On the other hand a QB can still be pretty productive with mediocre receivers and a mediocre line if he's good enough.

 

A good WR can still put up big numbers with bad or mediocre quarterbacking.  

 

But you see Ray Rice being super productive with the Ravens and then after the Ravens release him some 7th round pick named Forsett comes in and is just as productive.  

 

And that is hardly an isolated incident.  RB more then any position you see people you've never heard of before, coming out of no where having incredible games and seasons.   

That's my point....and you give good examples there and in your earlier post.

 

But a "Never draft a RB in the 1st Round" policy...along with C, OG and RT.....all of which regularly get dropped out of Round 1 as a matter of pure draft strategy, in and of itself, can also contribute to the effect that we see with our team.

 

I'm not saying it IS our policy....we just don't know...but it's typically the outcome.

 

We don't know what the line of thinking was when we selected Bjorn Werner, with LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy sitting there at #24....not Top 10, mind you....but #24. And I don't have any particular ax to grind with Werner....I think he's finally coming along and playing fairly consistently.

 

But here's what we DO know....there's every possibility the Richardson trade would have been unnecessary had we chosen Bell or Lacy.

 

And if the prevailing argument on the Forum against Trent Richardson has been that Donald Brown ran well behind our mediocre O-line....what do you think LeVeon Bell or Eddie Lacy could do?

 

The player we select where we ordinarily draft....at the 24-30 range, is seldom the best in breed at that position, so particular attention needs to be paid to value and how and when the player we select upgrades the position or truly gives us quality depth.

 

Hopefully, Boom and Richardson are adequate going forward and the O-line stays healthy and tightens up. And Werner seems to be developing steadily.

 

All I'm saying is that we should never say never....because talent sometimes dictates otherwise.

 

Perhaps not this coming draft with Gordon, but somewhere down the line.

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That's my point....and you give good examples there and in your earlier post.

 

But a "Never draft a RB in the 1st Round" policy...along with C, OG and RT.....all of which regularly get dropped out of Round 1 as a matter of pure draft strategy, in and of itself, can also contribute to the effect that we see with our team.

 

I'm not saying it IS our policy....we just don't know...but it's typically the outcome.

 

We don't know what the line of thinking was when we selected Bjorn Werner, with LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy sitting there at #24....not Top 10, mind you....but #24. And I don't have any particular ax to grind with Werner....I think he's finally coming along and playing fairly consistently.

 

But here's what we DO know....there's every possibility the Richardson trade would have been unnecessary had we chosen Bell or Lacy.

 

And if the prevailing argument on the Forum against Trent Richardson has been that Donald Brown ran well behind our mediocre O-line....what do you think LeVeon Bell or Eddie Lacy could do?

 

The player we select where we ordinarily draft....at the 24-30 range, is seldom the best in breed at that position, so particular attention needs to be paid to value and how and when the player we select upgrades the position or truly gives us quality depth.

 

Hopefully, Boom and Richardson are adequate going forward and the O-line stays healthy and tightens up. And Werner seems to be developing steadily.

 

All I'm saying is that we should never say never....because talent sometimes dictates otherwise.

 

Perhaps not this coming draft with Gordon, but somewhere down the line.

 

It's hard to say what Bell or Lacy would do on our team.  Like I said so much of an RB's production is dependent upon the offensive line.  And also Bell and Lacy are hindsight picks.  With the rate at which 1st round draft picks bust as I detailed above . . . 81.25% since 2007 and if I made it since 2008 it would be even worse because only 1 RB in the first round since 2008 has been actually worth the pick in terms of production.

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No thanks . . . Honestly I'm becoming more and more convinced that you shouldn't spend anything higher then a 4th round pick on a RB.  

 

Way too many RB's who where picked late or not at all are tearing it up.  

Unless it's one of those "can't-miss-once-in-a-decade-prospects" I think I agree with you, especially after the Trent trade.  Although, I think I'd say that I could feel comfortable taking an RB with in the 3rd.  That seems to be the last round before the drop in talent is - at least in my opinion. 

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No thanks . . . Honestly I'm becoming more and more convinced that you shouldn't spend anything higher then a 4th round pick on a RB.  

 

Way too many RB's who where picked late or not at all are tearing it up.

I agree. Arian Foster, Terell Davis, Alfred Morris, C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, etc...were all taken 2nd round or later.

Knoshawn Mereno, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Mark Ingram, David Wilson, Ricky Williams,etc...

You don't need a RB in the first round. Being the best RB in college doesn't mean you'll be the best RB in the NFL. RB is plug and play. It's not a position that's hard to play.

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OL and then D, or reverse it. Then hope Coleman falls to the 3rd. He is way too good for that to happen, but I can wish. Coleman is going to be great. Look what he did the last 5 games, and he was the only offense IU had, and everyone keyed on him. Look at Gordon vs. Ohio St. and what Coleman did to them. 75 yds. vs. over 200 I believe for Coleman.

 

To be fair, Gordon for a long time was projected as our number 1 pick at CBS but now they have us going McKinney or Jaleen Strong. I don't think there is a chance we go WR.

 

In a perfect world, I go with one of the LT in the first round, and put him at RG, and let him take Cherilus space after a year. Second round, I want Cody Prewitt. I like him more than Collins. Collins is a hitter, but I like Prewitts ball skills when it is in the air. I just hope he is around in the 2nd. I have seen him from the 1st to the 3rd.

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Just out of curiosity,  can you share with us which mock drafts have the Colts taking a RB in the 1st?

 

These days anyone and everyone is doing a mock draft.    Heck,  my mother does a mock draft and she passed away nearly 25 years ago!!!   (To be fair,  mom was always a very forward thinker!)

 

Most mock drafts aren't worth the Internet paper they're written on.....   so, at the risk of being an elitist snob,  I'm curious which websites mock us that way?

 

Sports Illustrated.

 

You ever hear of that rag?

 

Link: http://www.si.com/nfl/2014/12/17/2015-nfl-mock-draft-jameis-winston-marcus-mariota-randy-gregory

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RB may well be the deepest position in this up coming draft...    NO WAY IN HELL INDY DRAFTS A RB with their first pick...    Way too many more urgent needs.

 

Second?  Coleman, Davis, Duke, or AA ..    I can buy that totally...   A lot of value at RB this year.

 

First will be OL, DE/OLB, or S   I would bet the ranch...

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I want Coleman bad but he is going to go a lot faster than any of us think...   he is starting to be a early 2nd rounder in some mocks I have looked at .       The secret is out...    Dude is a baller..   In fact would be happy with him over Gordon or Gurley.

 

 

OL and then D, or reverse it. Then hope Coleman falls to the 3rd. He is way too good for that to happen, but I can wish. Coleman is going to be great. Look what he did the last 5 games, and he was the only offense IU had, and everyone keyed on him. Look at Gordon vs. Ohio St. and what Coleman did to them. 75 yds. vs. over 200 I believe for Coleman.

 

To be fair, Gordon for a long time was projected as our number 1 pick at CBS but now they have us going McKinney or Jaleen Strong. I don't think there is a chance we go WR.

 

In a perfect world, I go with one of the LT in the first round, and put him at RG, and let him take Cherilus space after a year. Second round, I want Cody Prewitt. I like him more than Collins. Collins is a hitter, but I like Prewitts ball skills when it is in the air. I just hope he is around in the 2nd. I have seen him from the 1st to the 3rd.

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???  Tell that to Trent...  

 

RB is a very hard position to play.    Simply running is not all it requires.    Trent is good at all except RUNNING ..   hhheeee.e.ee

 

Go figure..    I will be shocked if Indy does not either bring in Spiller or draft a RB.

 

I agree. Arian Foster, Terell Davis, Alfred Morris, C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill, etc...were all taken 2nd round or later.

Knoshawn Mereno, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Mark Ingram, David Wilson, Ricky Williams,etc...

You don't need a RB in the first round. Being the best RB in college doesn't mean you'll be the best RB in the NFL. RB is plug and play. It's not a position that's hard to play.

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Thanks very much you sharing.    To be clear,  I wasn't giving you a hard time at all.

 

As for Sports Illustrated,  I'm a big fan of theirs in general.    Just not of their mock drafts in whatever sport they do it for.    I think they've been doing a poor job of mock drafts for a long, long time.     They were Good when Dr. Z, Paul Zimmerman was doing it.    And they're good when Peter King is doing it.    But the other goods who step in from time to time I don't think do a good job,  so I don't put much stock in their picks.

 

But,  to each their own.  

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Thanks very much you sharing.    To be clear,  I wasn't giving you a hard time at all.

 

As for Sports Illustrated,  I'm a big fan of theirs in general.    Just not of their mock drafts in whatever sport they do it for.    I think they've been doing a poor job of mock drafts for a long, long time.     They were Good when Dr. Z, Paul Zimmerman was doing it.    And they're good when Peter King is doing it.    But the other goods who step in from time to time I don't think do a good job,  so I don't put much stock in their picks.

 

But,  to each their own.  

 

I know you weren't.  I was just playing around.  Hard to convey tone on these boards. 

 

As far as the mock pick is concerned, I'm 50/50 on it.  Nearly every member of this board is constantly on full hand-wringing mode when it comes to the RB situation.  Nearly every member complains about needing to run more (and throw less).  Then, when Melvin Gordon is mentioned, everyone says we will find someone better in the 5th round.  Um . . . sure.  Maybe?  Maybe not. 

 

Melvin Gordon is the real deal.  I think he has a great chance to be a successful in the NFL.

 

Similar to Bell (out of MSU) in Pittsburgh. 

 

All that said, all of these mock drafts are virtually useless (I say virtually because they do make for discussion on slow days).  Although a player's body of work constitutes the majority of his draft stock, the combine/pro day is sometimes a swing point.  Someone with a great body of work that also turns in a great combine performance can rocket up the board. 

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