ESPN Season Simulation

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

So ESPN did 20,000 simulations of 2021 Season. They then selected one. 

 

They had the Colts, winning the division as the Number 2 Seed, and then losing in the first round. vs Jags. They had 5 teams tied for worst record at 5-12, (Like the Texans will win 5 games). 

 

 

How would you guys feel about this season?

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32133086/simulating-2021-nfl-season-projecting-285-games-biggest-storylines-super-bowl-winner

[PrincetonTiger]

[EastStreet]

Colts 13-4 (tied for most wins in the AFC), then losing to 9-8 Jax..... 

 

huh

[Four2itus]

15 minutes ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

and then losing in the first round. vs Jags.

I highly doubt that is happening. But, who knows?

[John Hammonds]

They simulated the Seahawks starting the season 1-10???

And the Colts opening the season 9-1, against the Seahawks, Rams, Ravens, and twice against the Titans?

I think ESPN's got some swamp land in Florida to sell.

[John Waylon]

Jacksonville… in the playoffs?

 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

28 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I highly doubt that is happening. But, who knows?

 

41 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Colts 13-4 (tied for most wins in the AFC), then losing to 9-8 Jax..... 

 

huh

Oh Ia agree, Rookie QBs normally do not do well in that first playoff game, and I really can't see Meyer doing well

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

 

Oh Ia agree, Rookie QBs normally do not do well in that first playoff game, and I really can't see Meyer doing well

I do think Meyer and Lawrence will have Jax competing sooner or later, just highly doubt it's this year. The roster is absolutely improving though. AFCS will likely be a pretty tough place in a couple years assuming Indy and TN don't collapse.

 

Meyer will be interesting to watch. Not sure he'll translate, but he's a good coach in the purest sense. And Lawrence may not be the second coming, but his floor is very high. Can't wait to compare his year 1 to year 1s for guys like Manning, Mahomes, Luck, etc..

[IrsaysArmy]

No way 9-8 in the AFC gets you in the playoffs.

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I do think Meyer and Lawrence will have Jax competing sooner or later, just highly doubt it's this year. The roster is absolutely improving though. AFCS will likely be a pretty tough place in a couple years assuming Indy and TN don't collapse.

 

Meyer will be interesting to watch. Not sure he'll translate, but he's a good coach in the purest sense. And Lawrence may not be the second coming, but his floor is very high. Can't wait to compare his year 1 to year 1s for guys like Manning, Mahomes, Luck, etc..

To me, everything about Meyer screams his ego/college coach personality will not do well in NFL, that Petrino/Saban vibe. I am assuming, he'll retire again in a couple years, and Lawrence will then have a coach

[NewColtsFan]

They not only had the Colts winning the South at 13-4…..   as the commercial says…..

 

But wait!   There’s more!!

 

This simulation also had the Colts winning our first 6 games!    It also had J’Ville finishing second in the south at 9-8, then the Titans at 8-9.    With the Texans at a better than expected 5-12.    Very, very strange. 
 

The simulation says we shutout the Jags in week 10, yet are upset by them in the first round of the playoffs. 
 

Also, it had the Colts with the number one scoring defense in the NFL.   This was a very Colts-centric simulation.   I didn’t understand why this one mock was selected as more representative than any other mock.  This one was literally 13,330 out of 20,000.   Why this one as opposed to any other was not explained.   Just very, very strange. 

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

To me, everything about Meyer screams his ego/college coach personality will not do well in NFL, that Petrino/Saban vibe. I am assuming, he'll retire again in a couple years, and Lawrence will then have a coach

 

Could be. Meyer isn't a dumb guy though. Perhaps he's become humbled in some areas. He'll likely have a long leash in Jax.

 

Would not be shocked to see them open up 4-0. As long as Lawrence gets his two WRs back, should be fun to watch.

 

Losing Etienne hurts in the passing game more than running game IMO. Robinson was a stud last year running, and Hyde is a great #2.

 

[JediXMan]

[IrsaysArmy]

24 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

They not only had the Colts winning the South at 13-4…..   as the commercial says…..

 

But wait!   There’s more!!

 

This simulation also had the Colts winning our first 6 games!    It also had J’Ville finishing second in the south at 9-8, then the Titans at 8-9.    With the Texans at a better than expected 5-12.    Very, very strange. 
 

The simulation says we shutout the Jags in week 10, yet are upset by them in the first round of the playoffs. 
 

Also, it had the Colts with the number one scoring defense in the NFL.   This was a very Colts-centric simulation.   I didn’t understand why this one mock was selected as more representative than any other mock.  This one was literally 13,330 out of 20,000.   Why this one as opposed to any other was not explained.   Just very, very strange. 

Too strange for my liking.

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

They had the Colts, winning the division as the Number 2 Seed, and then losing in the first round. vs Jags.

If they lose to the jags in the first round I will lose my mind

[EastStreet]

40 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

If they lose to the jags in the first round I will lose my mind

I lose my mind every time we lose to the Jags.

[PRnum1]

This simulation has us starting out at 8-1.

 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

15 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

This simulation has us starting out at 8-1.

 

That is the part i would love

[CoachLite]

I did HPC simulations for a living. They are statistics driven by a pseudo-random number generator, influenced by human bias. My advice: Don't believe in them too much, but use them to discover what CAN happen.

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

11 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

I did HPC simulations for a living. They are statistics driven by a pseudo-random number generator, influenced by human bias. My advice: Don't believe in them too much, but use them to discover what CAN happen.

I mean I know a simulation is just that, it is one of the ways a season can go. But it is certainly funny to see what can happen

[csmopar]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Colts 13-4 (tied for most wins in the AFC), then losing to 9-8 Jax..... 

 

huh

Happened to us before...

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Happened to us before...

you talking 2005?

if so, a little different

[RollerColt]

We’ve got a good team. But we’re certainly not stacked or as deep as we need to probably go 8-1. Relying on a lot of players to stay healthy which is just unrealistic considering we tend to get snakebitten each year.

[Jackie Daytona]

6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I do think Meyer and Lawrence will have Jax competing sooner or later, just highly doubt it's this year. The roster is absolutely improving though. AFCS will likely be a pretty tough place in a couple years assuming Indy and TN don't collapse.

 

Meyer will be interesting to watch. Not sure he'll translate, but he's a good coach in the purest sense. And Lawrence may not be the second coming, but his floor is very high. Can't wait to compare his year 1 to year 1s for guys like Manning, Mahomes, Luck, etc..

Lawrence? Yes.  Meyer? Nah.

[2006Coltsbestever]

27 minutes ago, SchlicterSZN said:

Lawrence? Yes.  Meyer? Nah.

No evidence yet but I don't see Meyer as being a good NFL Coach. I base that on he comes off being just a great college coach and has no experience as an NFL coach. Saban didn't pan out in Miami either. College wise, Saban is the best ever at Alabama.

[PrincetonTiger]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

No evidence yet but I don't see Meyer as being a good NFL Coach. I base that on he comes off being just a great college coach and has no experience as an NFL coach. Saban didn't pan out in Miami either. College wise, Saban is the best ever at Alabama.

The track record  for college coaches moving up to NFL HCs is not good

[wig]

If we go 6-0 and lose to the jags in the playoffs I'll eat my oldest shoe. 

[colts89]

The Jags aren't winning 9 games lmao.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, colts89 said:

The Jags aren't winning 9 games lmao.

Trevor is good but he isn't Andrew. Jags will go 5-12 IMO.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Lawrence & Meyer certainly have the potential to be the #1 combo QB & HC in the Division.... Colin Cowherd often says how important that is but he usually includes the GM for the trifecta.

 

Some speculates that Meyer won't do well or be there for long. Regardless of Meyer's longevity there, they have Lawrence.  And Trevor Lawrence is not only a Franchise QB,  he has the potential to really be a Elite QB.

Any decent HC & GM should do well with Lawrence.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, SchlicterSZN said:

Lawrence? Yes.  Meyer? Nah.

I don't let my dislike for him impact my outlook. He was a good college coach. Has never been an NFL coach, so we have zero data. 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

1 hour ago, wig said:

If we go 6-0 and lose to the jags in the playoffs I'll eat my oldest shoe. 

How old is your oldest shoe? Cuz now I am conflicted

[2006Coltsbestever]

52 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Lawrence & Meyer certainly have the potential to be the #1 combo QB & HC in the Division.... Colin Cowherd often says how important that is but he usually includes the GM for the trifecta.

 

Some speculates that Meyer won't do well or be there for long. Regardless of Meyer's longevity there, they have Lawrence.  And Trevor Lawrence is not only a Franchise QB,  he has the potential to really be a Elite QB.

Any decent HC & GM should do well with Lawrence.

IMO, Lawrence is the best QB that has came out of the draft since Andrew but he isn't Andrew. He can't run like Andrew and the Jags have no O.Line. It is a Burrow situation in Cincy waiting to happen.

 

My picks for the division are:

1. Colts 11-6 - Colts get tiebreaker, It looks like Wentz and Nelson are playing Sunday, JT about to run over some people.

2. Titans 11-6

3. Jags 5-12

4. Texans 2-15 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

35 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

IMO, Lawrence is the best QB that has came out of the draft since Andrew but he isn't Andrew. He can't run like Andrew and the Jags have no O.Line. It is a Burrow situation in Cincy waiting to happen.

 

My picks for the division are:

1. Colts 11-6 - Colts get tiebreaker, It looks like Wentz and Nelson are playing Sunday, JT about to run over some people.

2. Titans 11-6

3. Jags 5-12

4. Texans 2-15 

I would say yes going in to the draft, but I wouldn't say after (Mahomes), but ya TL is not a tough runner which actually is probably good

[2006Coltsbestever]

50 minutes ago, PuntersArePeopleToo said:

I would say yes going in to the draft, but I wouldn't say after (Mahomes), but ya TL is not a tough runner which actually is probably good

Yeah I was going by going into the draft. Obviously Mahomes is the best QB drafted in a long time. 

[Dark Superman]

ESPN must be drunk and should probably go seek some help. lol

[lollygagger8]

Colts haven't won a season opened since ...........

 

 

 

 

you ready?? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 

 

 

 

 

 

[csmopar]

20 hours ago, EastStreet said:

you talking 2005?

if so, a little different

Not just us, but nearly every year there is a team that upsets a top seed. The Giants did it twice, both times being 9-7. The Chargers did it to us when we were I think 13-3. It happens quite frequently is my point 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

9 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

Colts haven't won a season opened since ...........

 

 

 

 

you ready?? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013 

 

 

 

 

 

And I was there for that game!

[CanuckColt]

On 9/6/2021 at 3:01 PM, John Hammonds said:

They simulated the Seahawks starting the season 1-10???

And the Colts opening the season 9-1, against the Seahawks, Rams, Ravens, and twice against the Titans?

I think ESPN's got some swamp land in Florida to sell.

Dem boys been smokin' some really wierd stuff....